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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77821 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:38 PM

Felix may be peaking or close to peaking for now... there has been some definite warming of cloud tops in the CDO in the last hour or so. It'll be interesting to see what the next plane finds in there.

As Storm Hunter pointed above, the last plane lingered in the eye for several minutes after taking a beating in the eyewall. I don't know if there was any meteorological reason for that... it may have been a case of the recon crew regrouping in the relative calm of the eye.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Felix [Re: danielw]
      #77822 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM

Quote:


Felix is way above the pressure wind relationship as stated above. 934mb should be in the 140mph range, and 165mph should be in the 902mb range.
Hurricanes don't read the books obviously.





Yeah, the 934mb is quite a bit higher than what you'd expect for a 165mph storm. Given that Felix is a very small storm, here's my theory as to what has happened: Able to quickly respond to changes in its environment, as Felix passed over the warm oceanic eddy south of Haiti, the surface heat drawn off of the surface rapidly increased. This helped to rapidly enhance the (secondary) circulation of the storm and increase the strength of its warm core aloft. As this happened, the (primary) circulation of the storm strengthened rapidly, resulting in a sharp increase in wind speed. Also given its small size, the pressure gradient component to describing the wind field is likely very large -- the 1 mb/1 nm Danny mentioned suggests this as well -- but the angular rotational component is also likely very large, moreso than normal.

Anyway, enough technical debate. While an eyewall cycle didn't look imminent on microwave imagery as of 8pm ET, Felix will shortly be leaving the warm eddy behind. Given that the minimum sea level pressure never really responded as much as one would expect, just leaving the eddy will likely see some reduction in the wind speeds. As an eyewall cycle occurs, perhaps starting tomorrow, the system will grow in size, likely bringing down the wind speeds further. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see a temporary weakening down to a category 4 storm again tomorrow. From there, depending on how close it comes to Honduras on its way to the Yucatan/Belize, it will have the opportunity to re-strengthen into a category 5 storm before landfall. We may had gone 15 years since the last landfalling cat. 5 storm with Dean, but we may not go much more than 2 weeks between them if Felix does the same.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: dvorak keeps changing [Re: LoisCane]
      #77823 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-bd.html

Looking at the Dvorak loop there, the only theory I have for this "thing" on the NW side of the storm is that it's making it look a bit more like it's becoming an annular hurricane on Dvorak (newest image in the loop, 2:15 utc illustrates this well)

Observe the northern outflow, and you can clearly see that the area of the darker greys has diminished quite a bit.

So maybe this has to do with becoming annular? We'll just have to wait and see if the current "trend" continues.

Edit: forgot to add that cloud tops seem to be warming as well with each image.

Edited by weather999 (Sun Sep 02 2007 10:50 PM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 240
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #77824 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM

Quote:

As Storm Hunter pointed above, the last plane lingered in the eye for several minutes after taking a beating in the eyewall.... it may have been a case of the recon crew regrouping in the relative calm of the eye.





that's what I thought....to get control of the plane or get their airspeed up.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #77825 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:50 PM

Quote:

Felix may be peaking or close to peaking for now... there has been some definite warming of cloud tops in the CDO in the last hour or so. It'll be interesting to see what the next plane finds in there.

As Storm Hunter pointed above, the last plane lingered in the eye for several minutes after taking a beating in the eyewall. I don't know if there was any meteorological reason for that... it may have been a case of the recon crew regrouping in the relative calm of the eye.





I am going to post the flight path on the recon.... its kinda interesting to see.... they were still taking HDOB measurements... they went in from the NE to the SW... and i think they did about 7-9 circles in the center?... waiting on the 10pm... should be interesting! Honestly i think they were doing some research on something on the NE part of the eye.... just based on the flight path....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 02 2007 10:51 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Felix [Re: Clark]
      #77826 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:


Felix is way above the pressure wind relationship as stated above. 934mb should be in the 140mph range, and 165mph should be in the 902mb range.
Hurricanes don't read the books obviously.





Yeah, the 934mb is quite a bit higher than what you'd expect for a 165mph storm. Given that Felix is a very small storm, here's my theory as to what has happened: Able to quickly respond to changes in its environment, as Felix passed over the warm oceanic eddy south of Haiti, the surface heat drawn off of the surface rapidly increased. This helped to rapidly enhance the (secondary) circulation of the storm and increase the strength of its warm core aloft. As this happened, the (primary) circulation of the storm strengthened rapidly, resulting in a sharp increase in wind speed. Also given its small size, the pressure gradient component to describing the wind field is likely very large -- the 1 mb/1 nm Danny mentioned suggests this as well -- but the angular rotational component is also likely very large, moreso than normal.

Anyway, enough technical debate. While an eyewall cycle didn't look imminent on microwave imagery as of 8pm ET, Felix will shortly be leaving the warm eddy behind. Given that the minimum sea level pressure never really responded as much as one would expect, just leaving the eddy will likely see some reduction in the wind speeds. As an eyewall cycle occurs, perhaps starting tomorrow, the system will grow in size, likely bringing down the wind speeds further. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see a temporary weakening down to a category 4 storm again tomorrow. From there, depending on how close it comes to Honduras on its way to the Yucatan/Belize, it will have the opportunity to re-strengthen into a category 5 storm before landfall. We may had gone 15 years since the last landfalling cat. 5 storm with Dean, but we may not go much more than 2 weeks between them if Felix does the same.




Clark and gang.

There is additional positive anomalies in Felix's path, near 75W, and this extends westward
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/sst2.png

Also, may I extend an addendum to Clark's explanation. The Mean Sea Level Pressure is slightly positive anomalous surrounding Felix, as well, and this may have added to a steeping of the Pressure Gradient Force.

Lastly...for now, it is rare to get hurricanes much stronger than this while moving at these forward speeds. I have discussed this I believe earlier in this thread and elsewhere, in order for a system to become richly coupled with the oceanic heat content, you want a storm to be moving tad slower so as to tap into the integrate heat content a bit more proficiently..

Heck, if a system stays in the same place, that same process can hurt it, if given enough time. That is because turbulent upwelling starts neutralizing the heat in the top layers and the thermocline shallows.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 02 2007 11:42 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #77827 - Sun Sep 02 2007 11:02 PM

Quote:

Felix may be peaking or close to peaking for now... there has been some definite warming of cloud tops in the CDO in the last hour or so. It'll be interesting to see what the next plane finds in there.

As Storm Hunter pointed above, the last plane lingered in the eye for several minutes after taking a beating in the eyewall. I don't know if there was any meteorological reason for that... it may have been a case of the recon crew regrouping in the relative calm of the eye.




What your saying is all valid...but Felix exhibited very steep developmental rates while the cloud tops were warmer than they are righ now, earlier this late afternoon.

Fact of the matter is, I don't think Felix really will get much more intense than we are seeing while he moves along this quickly.. And an ERC may well take place as Clark discussed.


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Felix [Re: Clark]
      #77829 - Sun Sep 02 2007 11:17 PM

Quote:


Felix will shortly be leaving the warm eddy behind. Given that the minimum sea level pressure never really responded as much as one would expect, just leaving the eddy will likely see some reduction in the wind speeds.





Clark, as of 11pm the NHC discussion said that Felix has yet to reach the very high heat areas of the western Caribbean. Are you referring to a different area?

Please see post #77826 above, thanks!
TT

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 02 2007 11:24 PM)


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JY381
Unregistered




Re: Felix [Re: flahurricane]
      #77831 - Sun Sep 02 2007 11:27 PM

Not to divert any attention (and well-deserved attention indeed) from Felix, but what do you guys think about the low level area of circulation just off the Georgia Coast?

From NOAA 11pm:

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS GENERALLY EASTWARD.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Felix [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77832 - Sun Sep 02 2007 11:32 PM

Quote:


There is additional positive anomalies in Felix's path, near 75W, and this extends westward
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/sst2.png





Tip,

Indeed, there are still quite warm waters ahead of Felix. I was mostly imitating at the well-defined eddy that it has been passing over today: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007244ca.jpg

I do think we'll see some strengthening when it gets into the NW Carib, but that's at least one eyewall cycle away and dependent upon any land interaction(s) with Honduras.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Felix [Re: Unregistered User]
      #77833 - Sun Sep 02 2007 11:40 PM

Quote:

Not to divert any attention (and well-deserved attention indeed) from Felix, but what do you guys think about the low level area of circulation just off the Georgia Coast?

From NOAA 11pm:

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS GENERALLY EASTWARD.




Please check the 2007 Storm Forum, as well as the embedded text that front pages this thread. There has been some material developed surrounding this subject matter.

TT


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Area off the GA Coast [Re: Unregistered User]
      #77834 - Sun Sep 02 2007 11:41 PM

While the area just off of the Savannah,GA Coast does have a cyclonic swirl. At this time there doesn't appear to be any convection in it. There is actually more convection-lightning over Southern MS and just off of the SW FL Coast right now.
0245z RGB Image

Still an area to watch... Once in a while. Due to it's proximity to land and the current satellite signature.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
NHC Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #77835 - Sun Sep 02 2007 11:44 PM

Are they reading this thread???

"...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030256.shtml

edit: To clarify. Several of us had been discussing the possibility of an ERC beginning based on the SSMI satellite overpass in Random Chaos' post.
When NHC issued their Discussion about 30-45 minutes later with the above statement I was slightly shocked to say the least.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 03 2007 12:31 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: NHC Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #77836 - Mon Sep 03 2007 12:11 AM

Incredible discussion tonight, just reading along and you are all doing an amazing job.

As for Felix... have to watch and wait for new recon messages.

Yes, good point.. usually you don't see a storm do that sort of rapid intensification without slowing down some.

Felix seems to like breaking rules...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: NHC Discussion [Re: LoisCane]
      #77839 - Mon Sep 03 2007 12:55 AM

Usually we see the diurnal maxima and the strongest strengthening overnight, yet with Dean and now Felix, it seems that we are seeing most of the strengthening during the daytime.

I'm curious what atmospheric conditions might be causing this?

Since we are on the topic of SSTs, I figured I'd throw out yet another diagram of them:
http://www.ssmi.com/hurricane/active_storms_sst.atl.html


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: NHC Discussion [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77840 - Mon Sep 03 2007 01:03 AM

Quote:

Usually we see the diurnal maxima and the strongest strengthening overnight, yet with Dean and now Felix, it seems that we are seeing most of the strengthening during the daytime.

I'm curious what atmospheric conditions might be causing this?

Since we are on the topic of SSTs, I figured I'd throw out yet another diagram of them:
http://www.ssmi.com/hurricane/active_storms_sst.atl.html




You know..that's a good question. My immediate conclusion is that the storm physics alone is not as susceptible to nocturnal phenomenon of radiative cloud-top cooling, which destablizes the column and helps aid in convective centered UVM. This system is mechanically superior to that kind of phenomenon so its internal structural changes are masking any feed-backs that may provide. The same was true for Dean.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Sep 03 2007 01:04 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: NHC Discussion [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77841 - Mon Sep 03 2007 01:31 AM

There are exceptions to every rule. You can look towards somethings but not rely on them.

Especially this year...

Interesting temperature chart, seriously hope no Canes find their way into that warm water nw of Cuba...

Wondering if the GFDL is right and Felix makes it into the Pacific or if something snags it and pulls it further north of inland over mexico.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: NHC Discussion [Re: LoisCane]
      #77842 - Mon Sep 03 2007 01:40 AM

I should be sleeping, but we have a new vortex recon coming, so I decided to stay awake to read it


303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10

N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: NHC Discussion [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77843 - Mon Sep 03 2007 01:44 AM

Yeah we should all be sleeping but we aren't... check out this image

its time sensitive but if you look quick you will see a pentagram in the eye of the Dvorak Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg

small storm, sort of chilling though...

ever changing... wonder what it will be like in the morning

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: NHC Discussion [Re: LoisCane]
      #77844 - Mon Sep 03 2007 01:51 AM

Quote:

Yeah we should all be sleeping but we aren't... check out this image

its time sensitive but if you look quick you will see a pentagram in the eye of the Dvorak Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg

small storm, sort of chilling though...

ever changing... wonder what it will be like in the morning




I work 1900-0700 and am off tonight, so naturally I am awake.
You see a pentagram?
I see a hurricane.


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