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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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RayRayfromLa
Unregistered




Re: 92L and GOM [Re: weatherguy08]
      #78214 - Mon Sep 10 2007 05:07 PM

Do you have the link to the site you are referring to?
Thanks!


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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Re: 92L and GOM [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78215 - Mon Sep 10 2007 05:17 PM

Note to moderators: normally I would send a PM for this kinda reply, but an unregistered user asked. Sorry.

Here is the link to the 10:35 AM Monday Area Forecast Discussion. Now, this link is time-sensitive and actually a new discussion is out, but here is the morning one: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLCH&version=1&max=61. The part I copied is in the second paragraph.

P.S. This just in,

"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE [GULF] SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD." ~ NHC 5:30 PM EDT TWO

Edited by weatherguy08 (Mon Sep 10 2007 05:23 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: 92L and GOM [Re: weatherguy08]
      #78221 - Mon Sep 10 2007 07:48 PM

gabrielle is departing, maybe strengthening slightly.. but what little worry it had to offer has come and gone.
90L has some definite turning with it. it has had weak/broad cyclonic motion for days, but now seems to have focused it a bit more east/southeast of brownsville. what is out there is moving slowly westward... if anything develops it would be caught sort of in weak steering and it's hard to say where exactly a system would go. early on a northeastward motion would make sense with the shortwave passing by presently, but afterwards a quick pulse of ridging could easily block it, and keep it offshore. i get the idea that it's starting to develop based on presentation.
91L will probably beat the others to be the next system. most of the early guidance takes it generally westward... the GFDL and hwrf move it nw. the dynamic models are probably right until the thing develops.. then it's usually something in-between. that huge wheelhouse ridge from last month doesn't seem to be together anymore, so i doubt it's another straight-west type system in the works.
92L has the smallest chances. the convection popped back up today, south of yesterday's fierce burst. synoptic conditions aren't wrong for something to develop there, but there isn't much of a place to start in terms of a surface feature. the bursts may amount to nothing or they may help get something started. it looks like this disturbance will be in a favorable location, with regional scale pressure falls, later in the week as it nears florida. assuming it hasn't done anything prior to this, there may be some superior conditons for something to get started. the way things are going that is pure speculation at this point.
probably will have something classifyable by late tomorrow, almost surely something on wednesday. this time of year it's unusual for things to remain quiet for very long... by the time we're finally rid of gabrielle something should be there to take it's place.
HF 2348z10september


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: 92L and GOM [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78230 - Tue Sep 11 2007 11:45 AM

Looks like 91L is trying to spin up, but thunderstorms and convection are limited... If the well-defined but large circulation persists and we start to see some colder cloud tops develop, a TD could form as early as overnight.. but I'd agree with HF that tomorrow night, we'll have something close to advisory status, whether it's 90L, 91L, or even longshot 92L.

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
90 And 92L Removed Monday 9-10-07 [Re: weather999]
      #78231 - Tue Sep 11 2007 12:04 PM

Quote:

Looks like 91L is trying to spin up, but thunderstorms and convection are limited... If the well-defined but large circulation persists and we start to see some colder cloud tops develop, a TD could form as early as overnight.. but I'd agree with HF that tomorrow night, we'll have something close to advisory status, whether it's 90L, 91L, or even longshot 92L.



Below is the U.S. Navy link showing Gabrielle and 91L as they removed the 90L & 92L Invests:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #78232 - Tue Sep 11 2007 12:20 PM

91L looks better today then it did yesterday. It looked like scattered convection yesterday, today, it manages a Tropical Depression structure... all it needs is more convection, which it looks like it is poping up a burst near the center. I expect formation to a TD either late tonight or tommorrow. Other than that, the GOM bears watching, a strong cold front drapes north of the Carribean blocking any fish storms.. which means 91L is likely to get very close to the USA, but it could recurve out to sea after slamming the bahamasand just before reaching Florida. Way too early to tell but if you count the strong fronts coming in now, the Carolinas, northward are safe.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #78237 - Tue Sep 11 2007 02:56 PM

Interesting developments today

90L is back up on the Floaters, and local area NWSFDs are now tending to incorporate mention of a real possibility that this low begins deepening along the Texas coast over the course of the next 3 days or so. The "cold" front is about to stall or wash out, might re-fire a bit, but unlikely. Winds right along the Texas coast area already generally out of the north, cutting off all the fuel supply to keep the front from stalling and/or washing out - possibly - to meld with the coastal low during the week. Models are nibbling at this solution, in general, with the GFS & NAM doing a bit of a flip-flop dance, a few others taking a few bites, as well. Vivian over at TWC expressing their viewpoint, suggesting the possibility of TD development, as well.

A Tropical Depression in North Carolina would be welcome news, but in Texas, this is more rain that the state no longer "needs."

91L firing some deeper convective bursts around an apparent tightening LLC today. Think all agree that this is the one that has the best long-term odds of the 90-91-92 trio. Like real estate, but in addition to "Location" it's got "Time" "Time" Time."


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: cieldumort]
      #78238 - Tue Sep 11 2007 03:36 PM

On another site i go to they say that 91L's MLC is dissapating and that the LLC is now starting to be covered with convection. do you believe this is true?

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: cieldumort]
      #78239 - Tue Sep 11 2007 03:38 PM

I think 91 is far from a tropical depression but defintely a tropical disturbance. It may have a center, it may have two... even the models don't seem to start it out at the same starting gate. As it gets closer the recon will go in and see what is what.. for now, it's on wave watch..

Gulf... 50/50 maybe... something is there.

But...at peak of the season, we have no coordinates being issued. Go figure on that one.
down the road we might have big trouble with 91 as most models show a high digging in and pushing it west towards land ...and yet.. have seen some forecasted plots that keep it low

Going to be an interesting one to track for NHC if it develops. And, it's big so size makes a difference in storms and what they are capable of doing, etc..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: LoisCane]
      #78240 - Tue Sep 11 2007 04:28 PM

Well, whatever comes of the Gulf system, depression or no depression, Texas does not need anymore rain. 91L is the one to watch though.
Something might happen there. (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics pretty much sums it up though.


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78242 - Tue Sep 11 2007 05:27 PM

I really don't think 91L will come to Texas.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: punkyg]
      #78243 - Tue Sep 11 2007 05:38 PM

It's soo early to call any landfall, we do know it will at the least come close to the USA due to a cold front that is blocking any storms for recurving north until it reaches the Bahamas. 92L is getting better organized now if and IF is the keyword here, I am not wishcasting as I was horribly pointed out for earlier, now IF the convection can get more symetrical and bigger, we could have a TD by 11 p.m. tonight. I like the model guidance so far, it really shows how the big Atlantic low really takes 91L north, then pushes it west along the cold front. I do know this will reach the Bahamas, but it could THEN recurve as it should be under the weak end of the front and due to *possible* stronger fronts coming down later in the days to come. Still about 10 days away and lots of time to watch it.. it will be an interesting week and weekend worth watching

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78244 - Tue Sep 11 2007 05:59 PM

90L is the one that will bring more rain to Texas (something Texas does not need).
No telling what 91L will do for sure at this point. It has to develop first.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #78245 - Tue Sep 11 2007 06:05 PM

90L has risen from the dead... lol, it's back on the navy site

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
now and then [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78246 - Tue Sep 11 2007 06:13 PM

down to two invests.. 92L doesn't really exist any more, though if you extrapolate the track of it's wave it should be in an area of synoptically forced-pressure falls off the east coast late week. it would be something different, but may be a focal point of sorts.
90L off texas refuses to organize. sure, you can track a coherent disturbance and low level rotation back to last week; the convection flares and reflares, but it never takes the next step. several of the globals track it but none do much more with it. possible it will move up to the coast, turn northeast, get blocked and forced southwest later. it may linger longer, but if past development trends are any hint, it won't matter. now, it is going to rain some in coastal texas...
91L is the 'real' story of the day. modeling is mostly taking it northwest, then more westward as the western atlantic becomes a bastion of ridging, with a weakness just east of florida. the system appears to be grudgingly developing... so if the early modeling is any hint, this could be one of those systems that the worries the east coast next week. still on the early side... can't buy into guidance like that just yet.
got a hunch we may have more to fester both near cuba and behind 91L later in the week. that's just what the globals are suggesting, anyhow.
hmmm... september 11th six years ago, we had erin and felix active, and gabrielle forming the the gulf. this year, we have gabrielle bowing out. it isn't for what was going on in the tropics that this date stands out in our minds, though...
HF 2213z11september


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: now and then [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78253 - Tue Sep 11 2007 08:52 PM

I do believe the NHC wrote off Gabrielle a bit prematurely, based upon current IR/AVN imagery. It's no threat to land anymore, but is potentially a threat to north Atlantic shipping interests (the Canadian maritimes, and even the mainland Canadian Atlantic coast). The satellite signature looks to me like a decent TROPICAL storm, not an extratropical low, even as far north as the low now is.

91L is also looking like it should now be classified as a TD, with Humberto not far off.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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tekkrite
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: now and then [Re: Hugh]
      #78256 - Tue Sep 11 2007 10:09 PM

The northern half of the low above the ITCZ looks like it's coalescing now, with a solid blob of convection and some outflow starting up. I guess we'll see in the morning whether it lasts through the diurnal cycle. It looked good last night, too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: now and then [Re: Hugh]
      #78257 - Tue Sep 11 2007 10:11 PM

It's been my observation that on several occasions NHC will let a numberable/nameable system ride if it is of no threat to land and only to shipping, to be "handled" by the high seas forecasts. Might not be the case this time tho, best I can tell. Looks like, as NHC writes, Gabby has just lost too much of its internal structure, regardless of what the convection is doing at this time, to qualify as a tropical cyclone any longer. Most strikingly, at the surface, its center appears to be very ragged, disorganized, and with sustained winds under 20 knots, at best.

91L's upgrade looks baked in the cake. The tightening LLC of earlier today has only tightened further with time, as it has also continued to blow up deep convection. In all reality, it is probably a hair's breadth away from being an upgrade tonight. Long term prospects are potentially huge for wherever this one ends up. The environment in its path isn't at all unlike what we recently saw in the paths of our two other CV majors this past month.

90L not so baked.. maybe half-baked. Ingredients not all there today, as yesterday, as the day before - but more "there" is there with each new day. It may get it together just enough before ocean runs out on it. In fact, it may have more ocean than expected if it just rides the coast for a few extra days. Front seems to be helping pull it up a bit fast, tho. Either way 90L, whether it pulls an 11th hour number off or not, looks to pump copious moisture into the Texas coast, perhaps also following the quasi-stationary front all the way to as far east as Florida, eventually. That is to say, the moisture - if not an intact system - may easily ride along and/or push into the frontal boundary, triggering quite the clutch of tropical downpours.


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TeamJP2002
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fla.
Tropics [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #78372 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:15 AM

First time poster -- long time reader.

I know a lot of attention is being paid to Humberto right now, but just looking at water vapor image from the Gulf of Mexico region (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html) and noticed a flare up due south of Cuba.
Anyone else looking at this...


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