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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Posts: 4149
Loc: Orlando, FL
TD 10 Drifts Inland - Nothing Else of Significance
      #78696 - Thu Sep 20 2007 06:54 AM

11:00 PM EDT Update 21 September 2007
TD 10 drifted inland near Fort Walton Beach earlier this evening - currently in the western Florida Panhandle near 30.6N 87.1W at 22/03Z with minimal convection. NHC has issued its last advisory on this system.

Not much else out there at the moment, however, Africa looks quite active again, so maybe a wave or two in a week or two.
ED

2:00 PM EDT Update 21 September 2007
Sub Tropical Depression 10 has become fully tropical and is now being tracked as Tropical Depression #10. The Tropical Storm Warnings remain the same. It is likely that TD#10 will become Tropical Storm Jerry later this afternoon.

Those in the area near there should expect some rain (although not all too much judged on radar), and some winds, along with the possibility for tornadic activity.


11:00 AM EDT Update 21 September 2007
Subtropical Depression #10 is formed, it's moving to the Northwest at 8mph. It is expected to become a Subtropical Storm later before landfall. Current projections take it into the Mississippi Coastline as a Subtropical or Tropical Storm.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up from Apalachicola in Florida westward to the mouth of the Mississippi river.

This depression should move slowly to the northwest and west northwest over the next couple of days while attaining minimal tropical storm strength.

10:50 AM EDT Update 21 September 2007
93L Has become a Subtropical Depression, advisories to begin at 11 AM EDT.


6:50 AM EDT Update 21 September 2007

The disturbance known as 93L is off the Florida Panhandle and now looks like it may make landfall in the northern Gulf Coast. It may become a tropical or subtropical storm today (at any time according the the Hurricane Center), and if so tropical storm warnings and watches may likely be issued. Areas in the panhandle are already experiencing squally weather, and even some tornadoes spawned in the bands of the system (even ones further away like the one that tore through Eustis in Central Florida last night).



Because of the hybrid nature of this storm, it will be a day of "weird" weather up in the Panhandle.

Outside of an area near Bermuda, there isn't much worth talking about right now. The western Caribbean has a good amount of convection, but nothing organized at all, and conditions there now aren't too good for development. So that system likely will not develop anytime soon if at all, Ingrid remnants are no more, and the Central Atlantic is a bit too hostile for development right now. So for the near term, other than 93L things look good for no development at least the first half of the weekend!

Original Update
The surface low associated with 93L, which moved over central Florida last night, is now in the Gulf, and may have a chance to form over the next day or so in the gulf. The system is looking more potentially subtropical at the moment, as it moves gradually westward.

Conditions are there for some development, but as it is a rather spread out system with little to no convection around the surface low (There is around the upper level low, however). The current setup allows more for subtropical development than purely tropical. However tropical or subtropical development could still happen by the weekend, as the Gulf sometimes can be unpredictable intensity wise. So those in the Central and Western Gulf will want to keep track of any developments.





Right now nothing indicates any rapid intensification, so the Gulf, especially central to western Gulf will want to watch this system to see how much development that may occur. The system is likely to be more a rain maker than anything else. And for that, rain to the north of the system is more likely.

Most of the rain yesterday was in Northern and Central Florida.

The remnant of Ingrid kicked up some yesterday, but still conditions out there are hostile for redevelopment, and its not expected for Ingrid to regenerate.

Outside of these areas there really isn't much going on right now, hopefully that will continue.

Radar Loops
Central Gulf Radar Composite Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Tallahassee, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Western Florida Panhandle, Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
94L (W Caribbean Wave) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 94L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 51
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: MikeC]
      #78697 - Thu Sep 20 2007 07:05 AM

The NCEP fronts on the current SSD satellite loops (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html) are showing 3 low pressure areas associated with the frontal boundary. The northernmost low (1009 mb) has a bunch of convection and is presently off South Carolina. Could we get three lows out of the mess that was 93L?

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: mikethewreck]
      #78698 - Thu Sep 20 2007 08:20 AM

I'm just curious to know what will happen when the models finally get a clue as to what is actually happening and start initializing correctly on the ULL that is working down to the surface. They are still initializing on what was...or still is I guess...93L but that is being absorbed by the transitioning ULL so the models are junk right now. I guess maybe once the Recon can finally get out there maybe...just maybe...things will become clearer and the focus will shift to the ULL and that data can start filtering into the models correctly.

Shawn


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78699 - Thu Sep 20 2007 09:03 AM

I think there's a possibility that Igrid's remains may get caught up in the pattern over FL:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 961
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78700 - Thu Sep 20 2007 09:06 AM

Radar would put the location of the low, which is broad, in the GOM adjacent to Ft. Myers. Visible imagery would suggest somewhat SW of there. Earlier today I heard a report that the mid-level had entered the Gulf adjacent to Tampa. The key I guess will be if that mid-level can rotate over the other feature. There was (is ) plenty of thunderstorms along the SW Florida coast and lightening was active this a.m. which usually means intensification, or in this instance maturation.

--------------------
doug


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78704 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:30 AM

Here is an excerpt from the 8:00 AM TWO (which I'm sure most of you have read). They obviously still feel something will develop from 93L (low level) which supports model initialization.

THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY.

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES AREA

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78705 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:39 AM

Hmmm...Well, looking at the morning visibles, the central Florida Low was basically absorbed into the main circulation of the SE Gulf and dissappeared before daybreak. However, the large and overall rotation that was noted last night over the SE Gulf off of SW Florida continues to persist. With some smaller vorticies embedded and rotating the main gyre. This is the overall circulation pattern (SE Gulf) that cancelled out the central Florida Low, but is probably the area to watch.

While the NHC 8:00 Discussion is a guide, it was likely written around 5:00AM under the NHC Product Timelines that I have come to understand. So at the timeof drafting, the Central Florida Low was probably still around. Since that time, I the focus has been shifting to the overall low pressure area in the SE GOMex.


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78706 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:05 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.UPDATE...A LIGHT AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE REGION UNDERGOES GRADUAL CHANGE FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ABOUT THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS TO A
DRY CYCLONIC BUT SUBSIDENT FLOW WITHIN THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF
WHAT HAS BECOME A BROAD AND NOW TROPICAL LOW WEST OF TAMPA. A
CHECK OF H5 TEMPS REVEALS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WARM CORE IN A
BETTER VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM.

WILL UPDATE THE BENIGN HWO IF AND WHEN TPC DECIDES THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED OFF INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN UPDATED ZONE
PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO REFLECT RUC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS STEADY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 90.



This is very interesting updated info...looks like things are about to get going...

Shawn


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78707 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:35 AM

ABNT20 KNHC 201510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Looks like the NHC is thinking sub-tropical which to honest makes perfect since.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78708 - Thu Sep 20 2007 12:06 PM

I still just dont see this storm being a tropical storm.....subtropical...probably...but the upper low that will die out with still have some lingering affects in the mid-levels...GFS 300mb maps continue to show no ridging over the area. A strong anti-cyclone in the upper levels will dominate over the eastern 1/3 of the country and off the east coast...taking anything wnw towards the Panhandle-LA. Current data and models are showing a subtropical system between 1006-1009mb coming onshore in that region....due to the warm ocean content of 84-86dg...I would think it might drop as low as 1003mb before landfall and winds 45-50mph.. but still not having that right mid-upperlevel conditions will hamper this from becoming a strong TS or weak hurricane.

On a side note for true tropical activity my area of concern that I mentioned a few days back in the western carribean is coming on. Pressures are around 1010mb just east of Nicaragua... GFS is picking up on the small low and making this a TS in the central gulf and following 93L above. This will be more tropical as the mid-upperlevels will be somewhat conducive....but once it enters the gulf...some shear from our subtropical storm over LA might hamper this some also. Still this system has the best chance of becoming a true tropical system over the next 2-3days.


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: scottsvb]
      #78709 - Thu Sep 20 2007 12:18 PM

western carribean cloud mass certainly looks more impressive at this point then what is going on in southeast GOM. However, even though enviroment certainly not the best for tropical cyclone dev. in GOM would not dare to guess on any intensity (if anything forms), don't forget what Humberto did. To repeat probably the best quote of the year (weather wise) "2007, the season without reason".

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: metwannabe]
      #78711 - Thu Sep 20 2007 01:15 PM

Well Humberto Surprised almost everyone in the MET dept. Reasons it got strong was "probably" the warm waters combined with it moving in tandem with the midlevel flow and finally pressure gradient between the system and landmass interaction....caused it to tighten up.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: scottsvb]
      #78712 - Thu Sep 20 2007 01:31 PM

two things... one with Humberto... i am going over some of the level II Nexrad data... interesting... and i saw this that night... there were, what appears to me... about 4-6 thunderstorms that blew up on the right side, maybe like inside the eyewall that reached well over 50k feet.... and with the water temps there close to the coast being warm... it was able to keep its eye closed which now i am seeing better in the radar data.

93L in the EGOM.... i still don't think there is an exact location of the low.. i think its more broad right now... but i do expect this afternoon into tonight... storms will finally get going... since the ULL has worked it way down to the surface... of course i think it will take about 24hrs and some for it to become purely tropical... will post forecast over in forecast lounge this afternoon... inline with thinking still a central GOM landfall

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida

**also i am noticing with this cool wind we have here over the panahandle... if you look offshore in the above link... alot of of low clouds have blown up...** (i know there is a term for this... warm water..cool air blown over.. i know its looks like Stratocumulus... but i think there is a term for it)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 01:38 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: MikeC]
      #78714 - Thu Sep 20 2007 01:46 PM

Recon

Also recon is in the GOM... should be there soon! Good old recon AF306!
At 17:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 118 miles (189 km) to the SSE (158°) from Gulfport, MS. There at about 20k ft above the GOM and already have flight level winds From 19° at 43 knots (From the NNE at ~ 49.4 mph)... thanks to that Upper level low.. Interesting that the SFMR is showing TS force winds below... 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph) Tropical Storm

**also take a look at this buoy.. looked like the low/vortice passed right over? see winds and pressure... and look at the 9:59 am obs.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023

Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 01:50 PM)


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: scottsvb]
      #78715 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:00 PM

Hello rain, it's been a long time since we've seen this! I think we aren't looking at major development at all. Until this thing gets a Low at the surface, we have nothing to worry about. By the time it gets closer the coast, we could see a depression, but it's just some wind and rain to watch over this weekend while FSU is off

Models do forecast a closed low to develop by tomorrow bringing this thing in anywhere from Mobile to New Orleans. The NAM shows about an inch or so of rain along the panhandle coast and that's it. Could be some concerns of flooding in areas that didn't see much rain this summer. We shall see


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78716 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:07 PM

Recon flight level winds there for about 20 mins avgerage (1740-1800). around 50mph around 19k ft... there were At 18:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 163 miles (262 km) to the SSW (201°) from Panama City, FL. and the winds are coming down some now... surface winds are in the upper 20's.... flight level temp is about 20F.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 02:09 PM)


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srquirrely
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: SARASOTA
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: ElizabethH]
      #78717 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:11 PM

Could be my wishful ol' eyes, but it looks to me like a closed low now, around 26.7 / 84.0 ?
Anybody else see it ? (quick before it disappears...)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 961
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: srquirrely]
      #78718 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:20 PM

Hard to say where it is...base refledtivity radar out of Tampa is making a nice signature for a low center near Clearwater...but it is hard to find any real definite closed circulation in a concentrated area just a large cyclonic tumbling around a generalized area from Tampa to Ft Myers.

--------------------
doug


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: doug]
      #78719 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:28 PM

Quote:

Hard to say where it is...base refledtivity radar out of Tampa is making a nice signature for a low center near Clearwater...but it is hard to find any real definite closed circulation in a concentrated area just a large cyclonic tumbling around a generalized area from Tampa to Ft Myers.





Concur with you.... large area of Cyclonic turning... i just not seeing well defined low center... although there is two nice areas of convection down there in the EGOM... Looks to me that the ULL is moving to the NNW? maybe off of Tampa, to the west?

Recon update... At 18:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 146 miles (234 km) to the WSW (237°) from Tampa, FL...SFMR is still showing some winds at around 30mph.. there down at 10k know... they went though that convection.... heading SE

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 02:34 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1860
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: MikeC]
      #78720 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM

I think that the re-issuance of the TCFA (generally being good for 12-24 hours at a time) that was originally hoisted yesterday morning, now makes sense. Yesterday's simply struck me as far too early a call with all the variables up in the air, and especially considering how grudgingly slow ULLs transition into subtropical or tropical cyclones... not to mention how rarely this ever happens, in the first place.

So, today we have a broad surface low, with circulation becoming more and more evident in the area buoy, ship, c-man obs., some mild convection, a few lightning strikes, in the general area of the TCFA. The disturbance is likely going to continue to have a slow go at it while the ULL sits on top of it like this, however. And we're probably not talking about especially cold temps in the mid to upper levels, and as such, thunderstorm development is taking its sweet, sweet time. I mean, we're talking a broad area of surface low pressure with rain showers here.

The recon data will probably be unusually critical in determining if NHC bumps this feature up later today or tonight, otherwise my guess is we will all wait to see what this does through another overnight cycle.. maybe convection actually starts to genuinely deepen. Talking about deepening, pressures have stopped falling, and are even levelling out or rising a bit this afternoon.

The more I look at things this afternoon, the more tempted I am to conclude that a subtropical depression will be declared, or could be declared, already. Will still take a while to become tropical from here, if it does.

Edit to add that pressures have resumed falling now (soon after I posted based on earlier data, of course lol)

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 20 2007 02:57 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: cieldumort]
      #78721 - Thu Sep 20 2007 03:01 PM

recon has made the first turn back to the north... there down at about 1400ft and winds are right around 25 mph at surface and flight level....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78722 - Thu Sep 20 2007 03:07 PM

thing that this storm is missing and will miss just up until landfall is T-STORMS around a tight inner core. The circulation is there...but very broad....its going to take 24hrs to wrap up some but by then,....it should be nearing the coast...Still maybe a subtropical storm tomorrow.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: scottsvb]
      #78726 - Thu Sep 20 2007 03:35 PM Attachment (362 downloads)

true dat... but i think there is more lightning showing up then i saw earlier this morning.... Recon is focused in on that low now

see attachment of flight path

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78727 - Thu Sep 20 2007 03:55 PM Attachment (419 downloads)

just going based on this latest flight path... it looks like they are really focused on that one area... two things.. this could mean to me.... a weak low is there... and or... there having a hard time closing it off?

Oh yeah by the way there last data i got, put them about 600ft above the GOM.... cool ride there!

see attachment


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78728 - Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 PM Attachment (320 downloads)


Also look at close up vis... i see a sign that stroms may be trying to fire near center... at the following link... look above the the yellow Duepage... about an inch... see the low there... see storm flaring up on the SW side... of course there is shear there... but is storms near the center... another 12hrs of this and we may have something...
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78729 - Thu Sep 20 2007 04:23 PM

DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT
115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA. THE AIRCRAFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS YET THAT THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Recon is south of PC... at 5,000ft heading NW...
right after i posted... i took another look at recon.. they did a 180 and are almost back into the area where the low is at.... look like they went up and sampled the feeder band to the NW of the low... and are now back near the broad low...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 04:39 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78730 - Thu Sep 20 2007 06:04 PM

Here is some visual ground reconnaisance from Plant City, Florida (about 15 miles east of Tampa)
We just had a rockin band of rain and wind come through that would easily be classified as a squall band if its winds were a bit stronger. Wish I had a wind gauge, but I don't. At least a half inch in about 30 minutes with LOTS of lightning and thunder. Lost power at my school at 5:30, (so I got home earlier than usual). Right now, the barometer here is about 29.77 in which is pretty low for here. Radar looks like there is another line building south of us, so we may be in for it again. WE may be in for the rain most of the night....at least so we hope. I would say from looking at the radar that we are not far from the center of circulation of this convection and at 29.77 pretty close to a low center as well. Should be an interesting 48 hours coming up!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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ChessieStorm
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78731 - Thu Sep 20 2007 06:20 PM

Tampa Met Denis Philips said those of us in the Tampa area will be in and out of these bands for a while as the Low in the Gulf gets better organized.

A local weather station in Odessa (just inside the Pasco line north of Lutz) had winds gusts to 62 mph at 5:58 p.m. from this line moving north/northwest.

We are about to get it here in Spring Hill, already thundering a lot and getting dark to the south.


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dem05
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78732 - Thu Sep 20 2007 06:26 PM

Clocking in down here in Port Charlotte. We're running a bit higher on the pressure readings than up there in Plant City (I'm coming in at 29.85 or about 1010mb).

Really not the thinking behind my post however. The system may have it's shot to get closer to a subtropical something during tonight's diurnal max. One observation that I have made throughout the day is that the overall envelope...or gyre as I was calling it earlier, has been slowly contracting...So we may be getting closer to something here. During someof these contractions, you may have noticed some funny kinks and quirks in the visible satellite images and the overall radar representation of the circulation from the Tampa Bay Long Range (Link: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes )

Our best friend tonight will be the long range radar fromthe standpoint of tracking the organization. Shortwave satellelite will also be a helper after the sun goes down. That said, one final observation and possible caveat for development. I have noticed that as the overall contraction has taken place today...The broad circulation pattern is elongated...So as contraction is a plus, the elongation may also be a development inhibitor.

Final notes/thoughts. I'll go with the overall model solution. Pretty good agreement there. Iam sure you have all watched the models and compared overall movement as 93L has progressed. One overall problem I do have with the models is forward speed. The models seem to keep moving this thing along at a slow pace over the next 2 days. However, 93L really didn't move at all today and I would not be surprised if the overall solution is slower than what all the models are showing. Overall, that has been somewhat of a trend...

Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 06:29 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: MikeC]
      #78733 - Thu Sep 20 2007 06:27 PM

The 5:30 TWO is crystal clear on this:

530 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TAMPA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
A FEW SQUALLS BUT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Looks like a very reasonable statement. Really, they probably could have gone either way this afternoon - start tracking 93 as an STD, or not. While it already loosely fits the definition of a subtropical depression, it would be a generous upgrade, for now.

Very glad to see that they mentioned the low centered near 33N 47W, as well. Another one currently attempting to acquire subtropical and/or tropical characteristics.

Finally, as many of us have been mentioning, the southern and/or western Caribbean is firing back up a bit, and is starting to have some occasional model support for development.


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weather_wise911
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: cieldumort]
      #78734 - Thu Sep 20 2007 08:05 PM Attachment (301 downloads)

Lowest pressure recorded by latest Recon. flight is 1006mb, with the center found slightly NE of the last flight. Nothing unexpected....

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: weather_wise911]
      #78736 - Thu Sep 20 2007 09:45 PM

just got in... and taking a look at the radar... seeing more "tropical" showers on the east side of the low flaring up... some up to the 20-30k foot range...Looks for sure alot of rain is heading my way! MUCH NEED RAIN in the Fla. panhandle... we STILL VERY DRY here in central panhandle all the way to the coast.... i would think if the rain thats over north part of Florida can wrap around to the west side of the low... we might be have something mid-morning.... agree with above post... i think the track is a little to far left on some of the models... at the start... but am inclined to stick with my AL/MS landfall... will post more over in forecast lounge later...

Notice a few models try to bring another area up from the Carb. in GOM right after this gets out of here.

**also there is pretty good rotation there to the SW of Lady Lake... with that cell... that has a tor warn on it** 0150z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 09:54 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78737 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:01 PM

Yeah that area in the carribean is what I been calling for a few days ago to develop tomorrow. Data right now shows a low pressure system in the low-mid levels near 14.9N and 82W moving N about 8mph. A weak ridge extends from Nicaragua east thru the system to the central carribean and south of 15-16N. The flow between the midlevel (subtropical low) to its N in the gulf and a ridge over the bahamas will take this NNW and into western cuba and the eastern gulf. This has a better potential to be a Tropical Depression by later Friday or probably when they fly a plane out on Saturday.(if the system develops).

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Hurricane29
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: scottsvb]
      #78738 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:05 PM

Right now things dont look to favorable down there....

NHC-

CONVECTION IS STRONGEST IN A PRONOUNCED
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W. NW TO WLY UPPER
FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW NW OF
PUERTO RICO...COVERS THE REGION E OF 80W. THIS FLOW IS VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT


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allan
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78739 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:21 PM

This storm had subtropical written all over it yesterday. May have been a mess, but this to me was the most impressive non tropical low i've been through. I have pictures of the floods here in Palm Coast (some did not come in too good).
Flood pictures...
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood8.jpg
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood9.jpg
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood1.jpg
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood3.jpg
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/flood5.jpg

Trees and powerlines went down from both gusty winds and heavy rains that saturated the grounds too much..
Flagler Beach had gusty winds from 45-50 mph.
I saw that subtropical looking swirl about 2-3 hours before it made landfall in Cape Canaveral.
As of now, the storm has gotten much better organized since this morning, I agree with the NHC that a subtropical storm could form at any given time. Post Analysis may show this storm as a Unnamed Subtropical Storm. the radar is showing a much better system to.. deffinatly not a mess

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:21 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78740 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:23 PM

Well my Internet went down for several minutes... actually my Internet was working but DNS was not. Anyway, this thing is looking more and more like a tropical storm by the hour, with the low forming southeast of Apalachicola, I think. The low could be south of there, but there is definate rotation in that area. Based upon that position, I expect us panhandle folks to get drenched over tomorrow and Saturday, and I don't disagree with that landfall projection, Storm Hunter, although I think the AL/FL border is likely as well. My big issue is why the NHC is so reluctant to call it a subtropical depression.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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dem05
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78741 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:26 PM

Hunter, you are a pretty lucky duck...and so has been the northern 2/3 of the state rainfall wise. Thise southern end has not seen a lot with this. I continue to sit only a 100 miles or so from the low level center (as seen in recon or in Shortwave imageryas being off the Charlotte/Sarasota County Line). Unfortunately...we've had a few showers, but seen la nada otherwise and we really need it too.

Looking at the overall picture tonight. I forecast absolutely NO subtropical and/or tropical development now. The Upper Level Low remains in the drivers seat as far as energy goes. That ULL has moved NW'erly toward the Florida Panhandle and is robbing the surface feature of all its chances. The heavy shower and thunderstorm activity remains entangled with it, as seen in the radar reflection...is all ULL activity. It is interrupting the surface low (That recon has been following), and the ULL and the surface feature are not stacked any longer. Therefore, unless the surface low re-forms under the ULL ( which may or may not occur) there is no chance of development on a subtropical level. If the Surface low does redevelop...it will have a very short amount of time to accomplish what the present low had started (The cold core-warm core transition). Likewise, if the upper level low peels off to the NW and leaves the current surface low behind (and in the area we have been tracking), that is not a fovorable circumstance. The Water Vapor imagery shows very hostile conditions approaching via very dry air and SW'erly winds. Under that influence, the surface low will likely fade away under those dynamics even if it gets leftbehind (WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html ).

That said, I'll go all out on this one and say that the ULL will move intothe Alabama/Miss/Extreme Western Panhandle Area. Nothern Florida to Eastern Louisianna will get good rain...However, the surface reflection of this system will not develop into a tropical or subtropical system based on the current trends...

Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:29 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hugh]
      #78742 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:28 PM

i think the answer for that HUGH is convection near the center and not linked to any type of front/trough? if if had just a little more storms... we have would have S-TS Jerry.... most of the lightning is well NE and NW of the low... although there have been about 3 very strong rotating thunderstorm i have been watching over there in central Florida... that's my concern for tomorrow... tornados... i am hoping that the rain over the aplach. bay will help stablize our atmopshere over here in the panhandle tomorrow... and that there is not a lot of dry air pulled in with the ULL passing by us... will see! The reason for the strong winds up here right now is due to the pressure gradient between us and the ridge to the north of us....with the surface low to the ESE.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:36 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78743 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:33 PM

Wow... I'm seeing a low-level circulation with convection wrapping around it on the Tallahassee radar.
I guess I'm blind. Looks like a dead ringer for a subtropical storm to me. The 5:30pm TWO basically said the only thing lacking in calling it a subtropical depression/storm was convection, and that has built up tonight.

I'll buy that logic on the strong winds, Storm Hunter.... BUT... I have seen systems with a lot LESS convection near the center (or at all) that were maintained... so I don't understand why this system is not considered organized enough to be called STS Jerry (consistency!).

Edit: The 10:30pm TWO is out. It says no significant change, yet goes on to say "but bands of heavy squalls are forming to the north of the center"... which I think is a significant change. The TWO does say that tropical storm watches and warnings could be promptly required for the area on Friday... like that's not obvious. In fact, reading the TWO, it's as if they EXPECT it to pull the trigger at any time.


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:46 PM)


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dem05
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hugh]
      #78744 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:48 PM

I can understand how you might have that perception. I lived in Tallahassee for almost 10 Years and I am very familiar with the radar system there. For all trackers concerned...this is understandable, but it is an illusion.

Point A.) The area you are referencing is way too far from the radar site. It is viewing rain reflectivities that are higher in the atmosphere.
Point B.) For Back Up, here is the water Vapor Loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html ). The circulation you are seeing is the result of the Upper Level Low, which has now peeled off from the stacked system and is moving toward the western Panhandle, Ala, Miss are.

Bottom line otherwise is that the showers and thunderstorms traversing the Florida Panhandle are part of the ULL, which has broken free of the surface low that probably/likely will not develop now. Had the two remain stacked, the overall picture/trend toward subtropical development would have seemed more likely.

To view the surface low that has had the potiential for development throughout the day, it is still in the basic area it has been all day, please view the following link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
The Low is approximately at 27.0N, 83.8W. This one could fade just as easily as any of the others...But evenif a new low forms under the ULL...Time is running out to finish what was started today. Either way, No Name, Subtropical Name, or No Name...the end result is the same. This is a rainmaker. That said, my bets are with an almost 0% chance of this getting a name.

Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78745 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM

If there is almost 0% chance of it developing, why does the NHC spend so much time in the TWO on it, and indicate it could develop *at any time*?

Edit: There is no low whatsoever visible on the IR2 loop at that location.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:53 PM)


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dem05
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hugh]
      #78746 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:57 PM

To answer you question, the NHC has had great reason to investigate and take interest in this location for possible development today. We had an upper level low that became vertically stacked to the surface. Since tropical systems are warm core surface features and ULL are cold core features at the upper levels...This stacking from top to bottom allowed for the possibility that the ULL could transition down to the surface and convert from a cold core system to a sutropical (Hybrid warm/cold core system) to one that was tropical and based at the surface. Overall, this type of transition takes a couple days to become fully complete, so it requires special circumstances over time to get the proper stacking and to make it last long enough.

When recon was tasked to fly out there, and everyone (including me...please see earlier posts on this thread) were more interested in this sytem...it was due to this stacking. That said, late afternoon, the ULL has moved off to the NE and the sufrace feature decoupled. They are not vertically ctacked any longer since the surface feature got left behind. The overall synopsis changes to an environment where the ULL is in control, and now has the potential to provide less than fovorable conditions. After the de-coupling takes place, a lotof energy is lost from one system or the other...When that happens, the ULL always wins.


Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78747 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM

Hugh... i been away from the forum for a bit... new tor for Franklin... watching it on level II... its wrapped in the feeder band.... but at first look i thought that spinn to the southeast of aplach. was upper level... hence the water vapor loop... but after looking at some other data... i think that this "may" be a new low trying to work it way down to the surface... atleast i think its more mid-level than i first thought... i think the ULL had beaten the surface low again thats sw of tampa... and i think we "may" have a new surface low trying to form under that rotation you see on tallahasse radar... **note too that like above post... i just checked on my grlevel program... the beam is shooting at around 12000ft where that circulation is showing up...** so that makes me think its more mid-level now than upper level... i post more in a bit... watching the franklin county system

****IF this is true... you basically start all over with the models...*** Still looking at a lot of data.

**also i am looking at around 28.58n and 84.45w**

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 11:16 PM)


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Clark
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78748 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM

Tallahassee radar is shooting the upper low at over 15000ft -- basically 500mb. Compounding efforts to find a low level center are many irritating points: the buoy nearest the storm failed in January and has had its replacement delayed 3 or 4 times now. Most of the other buoys in the region either don't offer winds, aren't currently reporting, or suggest a broad overall circulation. Visible satellite imagery was lost with the setting sun 4 hours ago. The last scatterometer pass occurred at 11z -- 7a ET -- on Thursday.

That basically leaves land observations and ship reports, as infrared satellite imagery is not going to pick up the surface circulation given the existence of the upper low. Attached is a ship data plot from coolwx.com at 02z; linked here is the 03z surface data plot. Whatever is there is broad, yes, but you can make the case for the surface low either moving in tandem with or redeveloping underneath the upper level low.

Given the development of convection near the center tonight and the overall tightening of the circulation as evidenced on WV imagery -- even at upper levels -- I certainly wouldn't go so far as to say that there is a 0% chance of development. It may not end up being the best-looking or most tropical of features, no, but a very real shot of subtropical or tropical development still exists with this feature. Whether it develops or not, the end result is likely to be the same -- rains and gusty winds along the coast, potential tornadic threat to the northeast of the system, and locally higher surf. I just wouldn't say that there's zero chance of development

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Clark]
      #78749 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:40 PM

all.. just glanced at the TCPOD... they are going to send another umanned aircraft out into a system.. last one i think was in 2004.
REMARKS: AN AEROSONDE WILL DEPART KEY WEST AT 21/1900Z,
OPERATE IN THE STORM AT 3,OOO FT OR BELOW AND DEPART
THE STORM BY 22/0500Z.


Tell you one thing though... they are sending a lot of planes into this on saturday... well all day saturday if it developes.... **they all want be there at the same time!**

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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dem05
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Clark]
      #78750 - Fri Sep 21 2007 12:02 AM

Between Clark, Hunter, Hugh, the NHC Outlook...Probably been put in my place a bit for good reason. I think Clark would agree that the NWS has a slogan of track it til it is gine whe it comes to severe weather events and needless to say, 93L is not gone so 0% may be overzellous on my part. Reformation/restacking is definately not impossible either...I just decided that if something happened in that department, development might not have enough time based on cold core/warm core transition process...That's the specific point where I could be very wrong if something develops.

As Clark pointed out, there are not a lot of good night vision friends out there tonight. Our best one may be the shortwave...On it, I can still pickup a very...very weak signature of a low off of Tampa that the NHC comments on in the TWO. If everyone in the Florida Penninsula faced west and sneezed...it is small enough that it could dissipate or get shoved intothe "Hot Pocket" (Now that is just me trying to be funny here). That said, you decide, here is a link of the shortwave loop ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html ), notice the very...very small vorticity west of Tampa. Also notice how the overall flow is changing...The rest of the gang may be up on a possible reformation.

I hit the nail on the head with this bugger last night...but I get the feeling that it'smy turn toget fooled tonight. That said...I'll up the anty to a 15% chance of development...but I still don't think it has the right stuff and I'd be cuatious to go any higher. Anyhow and as well advertised...Name, no-name...the end effects will be the same. That said, prepare for and expect some showery/stormy weather from SE Louisiana to the North Part of Florida.


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Clark
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78751 - Fri Sep 21 2007 12:10 AM

Eh, I wouldn't say "put in my place" at all, as your comments are very valid to the situation! I just speak from experience on being burned in the past at times -- as well as the non-tropical effects from this one still being pretty influential despite the current state of organization.

Gonna be an interesting night in north-central Florida...

--------------------
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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Clark]
      #78752 - Fri Sep 21 2007 01:46 AM

looks can be deceiving, and like clark and others have noted... there really isn't any surface obs to go from... except when next recon arrives, which i think is not that to far off?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=tbw&loop=yes

the feeder bands just point inward to the ULL/MID low... and looks like its has won another round against that surface low that was west of Tampa... with the "new" one, that may have or not mixed down to the surface there that shows up on radar at 10-15k ft. SE of Aplach., Fl. If this is true... then my forecast would shift to the right some.... seeing some good lightning there is that northern band close to that circulation on radar.

I do see alot of dry over Florida being pulled up... but also there is alot of tropical moisture to being brought up from the south...

If this holds for another 4-6 hrs... then i would expect them to pop out watches and warnings, along the northern gulf coast, and upgrade this to atleast a Sub-Tropical system.... in the 5am adv.

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 AM)


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charlottefl
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78753 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:05 AM

It's not going to take this system very long before it's right on top of land again.
Having said that, it is looking slightly more organized tonight. And you could
make the case that the center has reformed closer to the ULL based on Tampa
long range radar, sure looks that way anyways. I think the lack of time over water
though is going to limit it to a fairly weak tropical/subtropical storm at best.


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cieldumort
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78754 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM

It's also not helping any that we are trying to dissect a marginal system during satellite eclipse.

Nonetheless, I'm on board with a good chance (better than 50-50) of a subtropical cyclone declared by 8PM Friday, and a somewhat smaller chance that there will be time for a more tropical transition to still occur within the next 36 hours or so.

Subtropical cyclones come in many flavors. The kind that NHC is typically more willing to officially recognize are those well-stacked ULLs that bore down to the surface and get something going.. and usually right in the smack middle of 'em. However, countless studies have shed light on a much broader spectrum of subtropical cyclones that many argue should also be formally classified. Best I can tell, 93 has been riding the line all along between the garden-variety, most widely-recognized brand of subtropical cyclone, and some of the more exotic. It's my -guess- that because 93 is so close to land, already producing the "right stuff" which we would most often expect to experience with a landfalling subtropical and even some of a tropical cyclone (these include: winds strongest in just about all quadrants well-away from the very center, squalls producing very strong gusts, tornadic squall once interaction with land, bands of heavy to very heavy and training - flooding rain) that even a small increase in organization would probably tip their hand for the bump.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: cieldumort]
      #78755 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:14 AM

roger that, agree... i swear recon was schedule to be there soon, but i see no data that the flight is airborne yet... Unless there is a problem... NHC might have there hands full later in the morning....

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71
A. 21/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0410A CYCLONE
C. 21/0430Z
D. 28.0N 86.0W
E. 21/0500Z TO 1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

getting winds up near 30mph out there in the GOM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

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Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 02:19 AM)


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flahurricane
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78756 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:18 AM

It looks like an outerband is beginning to work its way here into Tallahassee. Supposed to have winds 30-40, we'll see about that. We can use the rain, though.

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cieldumort
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: flahurricane]
      #78757 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:25 AM

Those winds are entirely believable. I tell ya', this is simply an example of an unorthodox subtropical depression (and quite possibly even better very soon).

NRL now has 93 up at 30 knots and 1004mb. I'm betting this is about right, and I'm betting that we are now at the precipice of No Name, if not Jerry.

While on the subject of features on precipices, now by all appearances a healthy mid-level low with some DEEP convection has indeed formed in the Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua. If this persists much longer I would anticipate it getting tagged soon. I suspect that at least early on the general direction this possible Invest would most likely take is northward, as it would likely be tugged this way from the troffiness of 93L and 93s parent ULL.


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OUSHAWN
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: cieldumort]
      #78759 - Fri Sep 21 2007 08:09 AM

Looks like 93L has finally found ONE center. It still doesn't look like it will do much as far as strengthening but whatever is there appears to be heading almost due west at this point. If it continues that it will stay over water longer and might...just might...be able to be classified later today. However, it really needs to start wrapping storms around the center more for that to happen...in my opinion. I saw talk on other sites about the center had moved NW last night but I think it was more of the center relocated itself and now the ridge is pushing it west. For some reason I still do not believe we are completely out of the woods here in Texas as far as a lot of rain from this system because if it keeps on the almost due west course than it will run right into Galveston. I'm not seeing the weakness for it to turn more north yet. Any thoughts?


***UPDATE...IT LOOKS LIKE NRL HAS TAKEN 93L OFF THEIR SITE!!!!***

Shawn

Edited by OUSHAWN (Fri Sep 21 2007 08:12 AM)


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craigm
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78763 - Fri Sep 21 2007 09:07 AM

Quote:

Looks like 93L has finally found ONE center. It still doesn't look like it will do much as far as strengthening but whatever is there appears to be heading almost due west at this point. If it continues that it will stay over water longer and might...just might...be able to be classified later today. However, it really needs to start wrapping storms around the center more for that to happen...in my opinion. I saw talk on other sites about the center had moved NW last night but I think it was more of the center relocated itself and now the ridge is pushing it west. For some reason I still do not believe we are completely out of the woods here in Texas as far as a lot of rain from this system because if it keeps on the almost due west course than it will run right into Galveston. I'm not seeing the weakness for it to turn more north yet. Any thoughts?


***UPDATE...IT LOOKS LIKE NRL HAS TAKEN 93L OFF THEIR SITE!!!!***

Shawn



93L is still there.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp

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Edited by craigm (Fri Sep 21 2007 09:09 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78764 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:04 AM

TWO planes are in the system.... both NOAA and AF... wonder how close one will come to the coast... get a pic? NOAA is just getting to the "center" coming in from the SE... AFF has flown to the SW side... here's from AF... there on the way back to the "center"


355
URNT12 KNHC 211412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL932007
A. 21/13:33:50Z
B. 29 deg 24 min N
085 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 017 deg 5 nm
F. 092 deg 030 kt
G. 017 deg 005 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 459 m
J. 24 C/ 449 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 04IIA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 30 KT N QUAD 13:32:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

NOAA should be off point that sticks off from Port St. Joe ...pretty soon... BOTH planes are inward to the area. One at 5k and another at 1,500ft

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 10:18 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78765 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:22 AM

thanks to recon
10L.NONAME

Expect adv. to come out soon... fixing to get another fix on center... both planes are on east side of center... NOAA looks to be heading right on in

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Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 10:27 AM)


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mbfly
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78766 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:31 AM

So does this mean that it IS a tropical depression or storm at this point ?? I'm confused by what I'm reading here and what I'm reading from a local subscription weather service that put this statement out this morning........... (quoted in part)

"The tropical depression over the northeastern Gulf continues to become better organized and appears to be structured more like a tropical-type cyclone than a subtropical-type cyclone. Currently the depression has sustained winds of about 35 mph. Some slow
intensification is likely over the next 12-18 hours, and the depression should be upgraded to minimal tropical storm today. It is highly unlikely this storm will approach hurricane strength.

The depression is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 5-8 mph for the next couple of days and even possibly turn more westward after landfall.

Heavy rainfall is already spreading over coastal areas of North and Northwest Florida. Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast today and Saturday as
the storm moves toward landfall."

So is it is or is it aint


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Colleen A.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: mbfly]
      #78767 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 AM

I'm not sure what local weather subscription you are getting that information from, so I can't comment on it. I would say that your best bet is to follow official advisories from the NHC and the National Weather Service. Fox News said earlier this morning that this system could make landfall Saturday with 90mph winds, however, nothing that I've read from the two aforementioned agencies has indicated that this is going to happen.

That being said: The Governer of Louisiana HAS declared a "precautionary" State of Emergency and the LA National Guard has been activated. For more information on that, you can go to this site:
LA State Emergency Operations Page

Hope that helps you out!

--------------------
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: mbfly]
      #78769 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM

The NHC has just came out with their first advisories on their website and they are calling it Subtropical Depression 10.

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Trekman
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78770 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM

Just Issued....

Tropical Storm Warning in effect from Appalachicola, FL to the Mouth of the MIssissippi.

In response to Sub-Tropical Depression 10

*Just to clarify the Tropical Storm Warning areas:
"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN."

hmm....two posts at the same time. Great timing

Edited by Colleen A. (Fri Sep 21 2007 11:20 AM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78771 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM

10 is up, but I think it is still no name. I quess we'll see in a few minutes if there is a Jerry.

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cieldumort
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78772 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM

"No Name" only means that it is now a TD or STD.. it may, or may not, earn a name. Often this season we have seen systems go strait to naming, and "skip" the No Name phase, if you will. More typically, NHC catches the formations quicker, and we have them up without a name, first.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: cieldumort]
      #78773 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:03 AM

Interesting if STD...don't every remember seeing one of those in GOM...seem to be more of an Atlantic issue.

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mbfly
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #78775 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:10 AM

Well alrighty, then.................. I guess my sources were right at 7:30 this morning !

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craigm
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78777 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:15 AM

I stand corrected. 10L was in transition but 93L was still up on their site. I'm wondering if I have a different link to NRL that might update slower??
This was supposed to be a PM to Shawn.

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Edited by craigm (Fri Sep 21 2007 11:17 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78778 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:40 AM

can see the two centers now on KEVX... one small one and another broad one just to the south of the same one.... its like the ULL would spin down a small low... over and over... but there remains a broadier low to the south of it...

http://weather.cod.edu/cgi-bin/radarloop.pl?station=EVX&product=BREF1&loopdir=brefs

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Wingman51
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78779 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:52 AM

From the NO Times


"Gov. Kathleen Blanco issued a state of emergency Thursday night that provides local emergency preparedness officials with additional powers, including the ability to require evacuations of areas threatened by flooding and of residents living in FEMA trailers. It also sets the stage for a request for federal assistance. "


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cieldumort
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #78780 - Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM

Likely just a short matter of time before 10L is designated Jerry. Latest recon obs are finding surface winds out of the SSE,S, SSW already running up to 40knots. With convection continuing to fill in, and a reasonable warm core starting to show up in the data, we could see this transition close -enough to fully tropical later today to be labeled TS rather than STS.

IMHO, should this more complete tropical transition unfold within enough time before moving inland, it significantly raises the odds that, given enough time, 10L may strengthen further, with a not outlandish possibility of 10L becoming a hurricane - given enough time.

Tell ya what concerns me a little at the moment - a potential track generally westward, or wwnw, basically just offshore, in entirety, or for the most part. While there is not a lot of model support for this, there is a little, and that track is model-backed to some degree just by the model runs which take it inland, and then wnw. Should 10L not head inland, or well-enough inland, and then continue on a wwnw or w march, things could get ugly downstream. Should be watched. There have already been some big upside surprises this month.


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OUSHAWN
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #78781 - Fri Sep 21 2007 12:22 PM

Funny...I was saying the same thing on the weatherunderground site about the center consolidating further south and moving on a more westerly track. I'm here in the Houston area and I'm NOT saying we are COMPLETELY out of the woods yet with STD10...soon to be Jerry.

Shawn


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Trekman
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78783 - Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 PM

Just in.....


...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Trekman]
      #78784 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:08 PM Attachment (365 downloads)

the NOAA plane out there is finding about 60F temps at 5k feet... so along with sat... the transition to Tropical was coming... also Dewpoints are up there too... if we can get the winds now... we would have Jerry

ALSO looking at KEVX.. i think the TS is not to far off.. the center at the surface has mixed into the storms that i seen with a few lighting strikes... there are storms right there now towering very high... if NOAA makes another pass... (there south of PNS heading south..) we might find stronger winds... confined right there in the center....aka... the core is looking better to me...see if it hold!

this was the AF plane from this morning... see attachment... intersting flight path..(looks like a plane there)

**update... seeing winds around 40-45kts at about 5-6k ft on the left side of the "center"** **5,000ft** radar based from KEVX

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 02:43 PM)


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pcola
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78785 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:39 PM

Well the good thing is that 10 will run out of time. Even idf it took a due west coarse it is farther north now than the southern LA coast..based on the local radar here the ctr is probably just southwest of Panama City..with very slow movement...we have not had any weather yet here along the coast, and it looks like most of the squalls are east of the center..they have canceled the football games for most schools tonight though

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Edited by pcola (Fri Sep 21 2007 02:40 PM)


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mbfly
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78786 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:56 PM

Is now Tropical Storm Jerry.....

"Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the tropical depression over the
northeastern Gulf has found that the winds have increased to tropical
storm force within the system; thus the depression is now designated as
Tropical Storm Jerry with maximum winds near 40 mph. "


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WeatherNut
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: mbfly]
      #78787 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:05 PM

Where are you seeing this??? I cannot find any designation as a TS on any other site

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HCW
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78788 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM




Where are you seeing that info ? Can you post a link cause our EMA office doesn't have that info yet

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mbfly
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78789 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM

Just out from a paid subscription weather service..... a reliable source. I'm sure the NWS and NHC will announce it at their next update.




Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 21 2007 03:56 PM)


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La Nimo
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: mbfly]
      #78790 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:17 PM

Still a TD....

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: La Nimo]
      #78791 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:20 PM

can you post the whole text on the upgrade?

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Clark
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78792 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:23 PM

I'm not seeing it either, and the recon reports I'm seeing don't support tropical storm classification. I see one SFMR wind of 32kt, at 2:25p ET, and a whole bunch in the 25-28kt range. In the most recent one that came in as I was typing this -- I see 5 at or above 30kt, including a 33kt report. (Note that these were all taken between 3:04 and 3:09p ET, after the post.)

I'm not saying that the report isn't true, I'm just saying that the paid subscription service may have jumped the gun -- especially given that it's been 20 minutes since the post and there has yet to be an update from the NHC on their webpage or on their data feed. It's likely that this will be Jerry, if it isn't already...but I think someone was jumping ahead of themselves unless they have some data I'm not seeing.

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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78793 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:26 PM

I just checked the updated text products direct from NHC.

As of 1926Z or 326pm EDT there are NO UPGRADES to TD 10.


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danielwAdministrator
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Tropical Depression 10 [Re: danielw]
      #78794 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:33 PM

Please provide links to UPGRADES or run the risk of having the post DELETED.
However... Using the last VORTEX message. And NHC's previous protocol.
The Last Vortex message-below. Indicates the high probablility of TD 10 being a Tropical Storm at the next Advisory.

Warm Core temperatures.
Max Flight level wind of 47kts in SE Quadrant.
Estimated surface wind of 40 knots. (39 knots is Tropical Storm threshhold-please correct me if I'm wrong)

A. 21/16:23:00Z
B. 29 deg 34 min N
085 deg 45 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. NA deg 86 nm
F. 164 deg 037 kt
G. 088 deg 072 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 462 m
J. 22 C/ 457 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 04IIA INVEST OB 19
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 15:34:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 88 / 70NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Tropical Depression 10 [Re: danielw]
      #78795 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:35 PM

this was later from NOAA2

000
URNT12 KWBC 211743
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1731Z
B. 29 DEG 40 MIN N
86 DEG 4 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1477 M
D. 30 KT
E. 100 DEG 7 NM
F. 180 DEG 36 KT
G. 100 DEG 7 NM
H. 1006 MB
I. 17 C/1522 M
J. 17 C/1539 M
K. 17 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 05IIA INVEST OB 15 AL102007
MAX FL WIND 36 KT SE QUAD 1704Z
MAX SFMR WIND 37 KT SE QUAD 1705Z
SLP FROM SONDE
CENTER SONDE 15 KTS AT SFC

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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
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Other areas [Re: danielw]
      #78796 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:36 PM

Some of the TV Broadcast Models were indicating the broad trough in the NW Caribbean will move into the GOM and merge with TD 10... or TS Jerry which ever the case may be.
Source WLOX-TV Biloxi,MS.


AXNT20 KNHC 211806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...IN FACT...GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/211806.shtml?


Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 21 2007 03:39 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Other areas [Re: danielw]
      #78797 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:40 PM

NOAA2 went through center right at 1915z.... vortex coming soon.. correction

BIG STORMS OVER CENTER NOW.... would expect upgrade... http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 03:47 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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TD 10 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78798 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:53 PM

The post refering to a Possible Upgrade of TD 10 above has been questioned.

I have reviewed the whole email and it is from a reliable... non commercial source. With many years research in Tropical Meteorology.

Until NHC Upgrades TD 10 we'll just have to stick with that Official Title.

Thanks.

I was incorrect on my TS wind scale earlier it is 35knots or 39 mph.
Therefore the earlier VORTEX Message would appear to indicate that TD 10 is probably a Tropical Storm.

Again we will have to wait until the next Advisory for a probable Upgrade.


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Clark
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Re: Tropical Depression 10 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78799 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM

The NHC had those vortex messages in time for the 2p advisory, where it was changed from a subtropical depression to a tropical depression. I'm curious as to whether or not they felt those winds were representative of the system as a whole or were more representative of convective-contaminated gusts given the non-upgrade at that point. The 5p discussion might shed some light on this.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression 10 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78800 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM

Both of the last Vortex Messages are above Tropical Storm strength...at flight level.

Clark posted while I was editing my post. I'm with Clark. I'm sure that NHC has a valid reson for not Upgrading TD 10.

However...Humberto is fresh in many Coastal Resident's memory.

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 21 2007 04:02 PM)


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weather999
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Re: Other areas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78801 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:07 PM

That was a short lived STD

Thankfully, 10L should run out of time and fizzle out pretty quickly...providing it doesn't pull a Humberto.

Perhaps a special advisory/update will be issued in the next 15 mins to upgrade it to Jerry--since it is an immediate threat to land?


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Other areas [Re: weather999]
      #78802 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:14 PM

this is starting to look like it may make landfall in the western panhandle... its going to be close... PNS area?

If the current trend holds further east than that...Ft Walton? JK

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 21 2007 04:29 PM)


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mbfly
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Re: TD 10 [Re: danielw]
      #78803 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:21 PM

Quote:

The post refering to a Possible Upgrade of TD 10 above has been questioned.

I have reviewed the whole email and it is from a reliable... non commercial source. With many years research in Tropical Meteorology.

Until NHC Upgrades TD 10 we'll just have to stick with that Official Title.

Thanks for the support ! My apologies to the forum for coming off sounding like a "the sky is falling Chicken Little or a troll ! I was just trying to give a heads up but sharing what I probably shouldn't have.......... from now on I'll just reference the official reports when they come out along with everyone else.

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wxman007
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Re: TD 10 [Re: mbfly]
      #78804 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:32 PM

Still TD 10 at the 5pm Adv.

EDIT: From the Disco:

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY TODAY.
EARLIER FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
SUGGESTED WINDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ALTHOUGH
DROPSONDES IN THE BAND DID NOT INDICATE THAT MUCH WIND. IN ANY
EVENT...THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 21 2007 04:35 PM)


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pcola
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Re: TD 10 [Re: wxman007]
      #78805 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:50 PM

the local radar here is showing a NNW drift or motion....i would not be surprised to see the weak center come in near where Dennis did 2 years ago...it seems when storms get into the area of the Gulf that juts in between LA and Appalachicola, storms want to have a Right Turn mentality. Dennis did it, Erin did it, Ivan did it, and it looks like TD 10 will also...Radar shows the storm about 20 miles south of Destin, and some heavier convection firing on the west side of the coc

Dr Lions on Weather channel confirms what I though, and said it could be onshore in a couple of hours, between Destin and Pcola

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Fri Sep 21 2007 04:52 PM)


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Trekman
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Re: TD 10 [Re: pcola]
      #78806 - Fri Sep 21 2007 06:16 PM

Not sure about that. Dennis came in near Navarre Beach....

This thing...at least looking at the radar looks just off of Destin and heading right for it.

Just my amateur observation.

Does anyone else see it or am I nuts



Channel 3 is saying it MAY possibly be onshore near Sandestin or just offshore of it.

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College

Edited by Trekman (Fri Sep 21 2007 06:22 PM)


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wxman007
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WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Trekman]
      #78807 - Fri Sep 21 2007 06:33 PM

My station, WJHG-TV out of Panama City, FL is streaming our newscasts this evening live at 6pm and 10pm CDT. Point IE (Firefox does not work) at this link and click on streaming newscasts on the left hand side.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Wxwatcher2
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Onshore now? [Re: Trekman]
      #78808 - Fri Sep 21 2007 06:46 PM

Looking at a couple of radars, it appears at 18:30 hours that this depression is on shore.

I am glad for all concerned that this storm did not have enough time over the gulf to intensify into a Tropical Storm.
Those who were calling for Jerry were premature. This low/depression never really had the conditions to develop as some had thought.

I'm happy once again for a fairly calm season.

Condolances to those in Eustis, Florida who lost property in the Tornado last night.


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Hugh
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Re: Onshore now? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #78809 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:01 PM

Based upon the NW Florida radar, I estimate landfall occurred at 5:15pm, near East Pass, between Destin and Ft. Walton Beach. TD Ten now appears to have made a sharp turn to the west, and is moving west along Okaloosa Island. The circulation is partly still over water, and based upon the radar signature, I would not be surprised if there were some winds in the area near 40mph.... and it would not surprise me for TD Ten to get a post-season upgrade, both based upon analysis of its landfall intensity in the panhandle, and its apparent intensity as a non-tropical/sub-tropical low as it crossed the peninsula.

Of course, it's also *possible* that the NHC upgrades at the advisory in an hour.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Genesis
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Re: Onshore now? [Re: Hugh]
      #78810 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:15 PM

Yeah, we're pretty much at "Ground Zero" here (Niceville, ~7 miles from East Pass Destin, and if the radar here is correct the COC basically came in right here just a bit ago)

This was a non-event. Some rain but not hideous amounts, no real amount of wind to speak of. Certainly not a TS from what I can determine, and it'd have to be a darn small storm with the presentation and proximity for us not to get TS-strength winds if it is one!

My kid and her friends were actually swimming in the pool an hour ago with the rain pouring down on them. No lightning in it.....

There were some severe warnings up north of us, but nothing right here at the coast.


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Hugh
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Re: Onshore now? [Re: Genesis]
      #78811 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:24 PM

Yeah, Genesis... one of the METs told me a few hours ago, that this thing might come right over my house and I wouldn't know it. Looks like he was right on all counts. There DOES appear to be nasty weather going on in the Destin/Ft. Walton Beach/Navarre area, right near the center, based upon radar, but we dodged a bullet. The fact that the storm took a hard turn west at landfall helped us in the Niceville/Valp area to avoid the nasty rains, probably.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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pcola
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Re: Onshore now? [Re: Hugh]
      #78812 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:31 PM

great.....i thought it was continuing nw....i guess i better get the burgers off the grill...i have not seen a gust here along the coast 15 miles from coc over 20

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Hugh
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Tropical Depression Ten making landfall near Fort Walton Beach [Re: pcola]
      #78813 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:52 PM

Per the 7pm CDT Intermediate Advisory:
Tropical Storm warning has been discontinued at 7pm CDT.
At 7pm, Tropical Depression Ten was (officially) making landfall near Fort Walton Beach. FWB latitude/longitude: 30.43N 86.61W (per NWS).... TD Ten: 30.4N, 86.7W.

They still call it a NW motion at 9mph.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Sep 21 2007 08:01 PM)


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Trekman
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Re: Onshore now? [Re: Hugh]
      #78814 - Fri Sep 21 2007 08:11 PM

Being in the Ocean City area of Ft Walton, I can say that it did indeed rain hard here

We have had nearly 2 inches of rain so far.

In addition...the pressure is going up now...according to my Weatherbug.

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College

Edited by Trekman (Fri Sep 21 2007 08:21 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: wxman007]
      #78815 - Fri Sep 21 2007 08:40 PM Attachment (528 downloads)

well i was out on the west end of PCB,..... took some great pics/video as the low was passing by....It was a very unique site to see... clearly could see upper and lower part of the right side of the center of circulation.... Love ACCUwx on the phone with all the data... hell i got the Tor. warnings as they were coming out... before half the local wx crawls picked up on it!!

checking the pics now... see if i can post any!

Here's a shot looking WSW at 1549 from central PCB.

Also had a "Aircraft Fly by to the south of me.. heading WNW?..... trying to see if the pic comes out...**** was not a jet... looked like a C-130? roughly a few thousands feet above the surface

Wish i was on I-10 around 5PM

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 08:47 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78816 - Fri Sep 21 2007 09:47 PM

so.. just checking up with the last few statements from NHC.... the recon data indicated that there were TS force winds to the east of the system.... but as recon left... the storms dissipated, therefore they held on the Upgrade... but in post analysis in the winter, they may go back and call it a TS if there is enough data where it came ashore to classifly it a TS???.... I know that where it came ashore there are ALOT of military WX sensors... there is a place called Okaloosa Island where Eglin Air Force base has some equipment/buildings for there range there on the island... right along HWY 98 and are right on the GOM.... i HAVE SEEN passing by that there is wx sensors on a few of the towers (radio towers).... question is where they working at the time and will the data be available to NOAA/NHC?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 09:49 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78817 - Fri Sep 21 2007 09:52 PM

If Eglin's weather stations weren't working, I'll be surprised. There should be plenty of information to determine the intensity of this system at landfall, given where landfall was.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Hugh]
      #78818 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:43 PM

well... don't think i have ever seen this in a Tropical system....

per SPC storm reports

A PILOT REPORTED VIA THE FAA THAT A TORNADO CROSSED INTERSTATE 10 ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF MARIANNA. (TAE) at 2210 3 miles West of CHIPLEY, WASHINGTON, FL.

First of... Give the person guts for flying in some strong winds.... second... please tell me you have a camera!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78819 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM

the wind around he center have really died down...i am about 10 miles south of where the center is currently located, and there is no wind...none..it has been calm for about an hour..i'm sure the winds are stronger in the bands, but this is a very weak system..the rain gauge here at Oriole Beach shows .2 inches today

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Hugh
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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78820 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM

Wow... Impressive.

By the way.. the final advisory on TD Ten has just been issued by the NHC. Advisories will continue to be issued by HPC beginning at 5am ET.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Hugh]
      #78821 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 PM

here's a wx station that looks reliable to where the system came ashore...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLSHALI1

srcoll down to look at text data... pressure 1003mb/29.65in as it passed? 1825z time frame... notice winds change.... run about 15-20 mph then down to 5 then back up... from the 180 from before

Destin City Hall had a high wind speed of 34.0mph... and a high sustained 1min wind of 20mph Lowest pressure 1004mb

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 11:00 PM)


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Kal
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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78822 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:11 PM Attachment (489 downloads)

My wife and I spent this evening at the Crab Shack on the waterfront in Fort Walton Beach. I took a quick snapshot around the time of landfall, just after the worst of the squalls passed us by. It's not the highest quality image, but then again I'm not the highest quality photographer.

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Kal
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Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Kal]
      #78823 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:16 PM Attachment (463 downloads)

One last photo from Fort Walton Beach during landfall.

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dem05
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78824 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:25 PM

Well, 93L beat my 0% and my 15% chance odds of becomming a depression. It was pretty lucky to become that, but after subtropical designation and tropical designation...it definately did not become a tropical storm and there will be no post storm analysis needed.

No "Jerry" Springer argument about that (trying to be somewhat humerous). The end result of the weather was the same all in all...Rain, some small winds, and definately some regretable tornados here and there so far. I hope for no more of those. Otherwise, there were a few gusts here and there across Florida that approached and/or surpassed tropical storm force. But nothing sustained to gain any merit for a TS designation. Not much different that a roll of the dice with an afternoon thunderstorm...and we've all had some excitement there at some point in time. As for those radio towers, they are all very high up. I am sure they will show higher winds, but nothing to support a tropical storm at 30 feet or less with respect to sustained winds. We will find out in the Mobile Weather Post Storm Report. But in particular...I know of the major tower on Okalossa Island off of Highway 98...I saw it after Hurricane Ivan. It is a very, very tall radio tower on the beach. It is a famous one from the WWII era, but I believe it is still in operation. If a weather station on it is above 30 feet, the data will be useful, but not representative of surface designations that give a system a name...In general, the system remained too difuse to earn that name and TD10will remain just that...a TD. Now, it is time for the Northern Gulf to take a look at the Carribean Sea. Something may pop in your direction from there...

Edited by dem05 (Fri Sep 21 2007 11:34 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78825 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:57 PM

Yep.... i know the next area to the south has my attention... has for about 2-3 days.... WOW.. this squall coming through PCB right, i just got a 23 mph wind gust..

Nice photos from FWB.... from my view i was on the beach (central PCB).... i had a really nice view of the center as it passed to my south.... the sun was out and vis was AMAZING really good... it looked like a huge sphere... i watched it for about 4-5 hrs as it passed.. (facing south..it moved left to right for me)... looking to the top... i would assume roughly 40k... the anvil had a nice spread out, in a circular motion... you could see some nice cumulonimbus formation on the eastern side feeder band close to the center... below underneath the cirrus clouds...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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allan
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78826 - Sat Sep 22 2007 12:03 AM

I respectfully dissagree, the storm brought floods and some minor damage to my area, I live on the East Coast of FL.. I believe this was at least a Subtropical Storm when it hit here.. also, this was interesting before it made landfall at Cape Canaveral, FL. Jesse Ferrel (Accuweather Meteorologist) points this out the day after the storm hit here.

"The most impressive buoy data out of this storm was really yesterday from SPGF1, east of Florida. Pressure fell to 29.78 while wind spiked to 44 mph, gusts to 48 mph -- Tropical Storm strength."

It deffinatly felt like a TS here in Palm Coast, but it did not have all it's characteristics or one, certainly did not look like one either.. That's why I'd say it was "Subtropical" in nature with 45 mph at landfall. We got the worst flooding Palm Coast has basically ever seen, very rare to.. I don't think we'll see flooding like that in a while, I could be wrong though.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Colleen A.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78827 - Sat Sep 22 2007 01:59 AM

Now that TD10 has moved out of our way...it's time to take a look at what's going on in the southern/southwestern GOM. This sytem is allowing for a lot of moisture to come into the state of Florida...so you Floridians' --- keep your eyes and ears tuned in!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Beach
Weather Guru


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Posts: 187
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #78828 - Sat Sep 22 2007 08:34 AM

I was looking at the closest bouy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056\

The lowest pressure in the past few hours was 29.85 with wind speed of 31 knots out of the SE.
Definetly want to watch this mess.
:?:


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #78829 - Sat Sep 22 2007 08:49 AM

I have to say that as long as this moisture stays just that -- moisture -- with little to no development, it's welcomed as a real drought-buster for us and the entire SE. We can take a few more of these "non-systems" over the next couple of months and maybe it will put us back where we belong rain-wise.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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WeatherNut
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Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Beach]
      #78830 - Sat Sep 22 2007 10:29 AM

Looks like 94L is up on the navy site...looks to be our next topic of discussion

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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