allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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WOW!! That area has really gone up in convection! However as I mentioned earlier, an anticyclone is over the disturbance so development should be good. Would not be surprised for this to be tagged in invest as early as tonight and late as tommorrow. 94L looks.. normal, hasn't really gotten better organized and my thoughts for a destructive storm has faded away. The chance for this to develop has really gone down, was a good hype storm though.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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shamrock
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: 26 30N 81 57W
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Well sat images are very impressive tonight especially in the last 6 hours, but pressures are just not falling as the thunderstorms increase. I've been watching this system for over 48 hours and seen several cyclonic spinoffs which I thought might spawn development of a tropical system. I'm actually hoping this system can sit off the west coast for a few days and help south Florida with it's drought issues. Hurricane? No way. TD? Depends, but it better get it's act together if it even wants to achieve that status. Other than that, we welcome the much needed rain for SW FL and the Big O.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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A TD or even modest TS wouldn't do much harm and sure would bring lots of RAIN, which isn't doing anyone any harm right now.
That dry air though is going to be a problem for it getting anything of substance going.....
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danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've checked the NWS Tampa latest forecast product suite and they don't have any mention of a tropical system.. Neither do any of the / TPC Offshore waters or High Seas Forecasts.
I did find this excerpt from the:
(Tuesday Noon Model Discussion)
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008
VALID JUL 15/1200 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC
MODEL TRENDS...
...UPPER LOW SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF INTO THE SOUTH...
THE 12Z VERSUS LAST EVENINGS 00Z/15 INITIALIZE A STRONG
MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AT THE
BEGINNING OF D1. DURING THE COURSE OF 24 HRS... THE 12Z LIFTS
THIS FORMIDABLE LOW FASTER OFF TO THE NORTH IN THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ON DAY 2 OR 36 TO 60 HRS... THE 00Z CATCHES UP BUT THE
12Z IS STILL EAST OF THE 00Z RUN ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW AND
INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS EASTWARD TREND WITH THE 500 MB LOW TRACK CONTINUES ON
DAY 3 WITH THE 12Z ON MOVING THE FEATURE UP INTO WRN GA/ERN
AL... BASICALLY SUGGESTING THE SERN RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG. NOW THE 12Z IS TRENDING WITH A MORE IDENTIFIABLE
MID/UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE
ARRIVING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND GA COMPARED TO THE 00Z/15 .
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...UPPER LOW SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF INTO THE SOUTH...
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
FORMIDABLE/STRONGER CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA IN THE NEAR TERM AND THIS FEATURE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE THROUGH THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND OFFSHORE OF THE FL PENINSULA BUT SHOULD DELIVER
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE ON DAY 1 AND 2. BETWEEN 48 TO
60 HRS... THE UPPER LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL SLIDE
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND LIFT INTO WRN GA/ERN AL OR AROUND THE
SERN RIDGE AXIS. THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FL
NORTH INTO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ON DAY 3.
HPC IS GOING TO SUGGEST FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH LAST
NIGHTS 00Z/15 HI RES ON THE HANDLING OF THIS MID TO UPPER
LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION OUT THROUGH 84 HRS.
***********************************
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
600 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 16/0000 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1 (Tonight thru 6 pm EDT Wednesday)
...FL/SERN U.S...
WV/MDLS SEEM IN GD AGREEMENT WITH ERN GULF MID/UPR LOW
PSTN/DVLPMENT THAT WL CONT TO PUMP DEEP TRPCL MSTR INTO/OVR THE
REGION. PWS (PWS-possible/ probable rain totals)ARE FCST TO BE AOA INCHES WITH DECENT DEEP LYRD
ONSHORE FLOW INTO SWRN FL AND ACRS THE PENINSULA. WEAK BNDRY ACRS
NRN FL TO THE SERN U.S. CST WL HELP FOCUS LIFT AND CNVCTN THRU THE
PD. THERE SHLD BE A STG DIURNAL PTRN TO THE CVNCTN...BUT THE WCST (West Coast)
OF FL COULD SEE HVY AMTS EVEN ERLY IN THE MRNG (Early in the Morning!) ASSOCD WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. CNVCTN SHLD MOV ACRS FL FM W TO E DURG THE DAY...BUT MOV E
TO W INTO THE SERN U.S..
THE DEPTH OF MSTR WL EASILY SUPPORT
WDSPRD MOD/HVY RNFL AMTS WITH LCLLY VRY HVY AMTS OVR PORTIONS OF
FL. (Locally very heavy amounts over portions of FL.)
DAYS 2 AND 3... ( 6PM EDT Wednesday thru 6 PM EDT July 19th)
...GULF COAST/FLORIDA/CAROLINAS...
A MID LVL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
GROWING MDL CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
ALONG A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BY WED NIGHT.
SRLY/SELY H85 (5000ft) FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA AND EXTEND NEWD UP ALONG THE GA/SC COASTLINE. THIS WILL
HELP POOL PWATS (Possible/ Probable rainfall totals) WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY AND PROMOTE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HVY RAINFALL.
ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND THE BNDRY... COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT MID LVL SHRTWV ENERGY SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND HENCE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENHANCED TOTALS
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE. MANUAL ESSENTIALLY
REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/00Z .
(edits in parenthesis are by danielw)
Layman's translation of the above... If you are in an area that Flash Floods, please be prepared to move to Higher Ground when necessary~danielw
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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see that "TAFB HAS A 1013-1014MB SFC LOW ANALYZED
JUST SW OF TAMPA/ST PETE AREA AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST RADAR LOOPS. "
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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shamrock
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: 26 30N 81 57W
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It's very squally offshore according to vessel reports to me, but I see this system as nothing more than a much needed rain maker for FL.
(Off-topic and inappropriate comments were removed - please review the site rules before posting.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 16 2008 05:02 AM)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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The 1013-1014mb is still about right. There is a very, very, very weak surface low/reflection of the lower to mid-level low just offshore. If anything, the surface low is just barely offshore.. given how weak it is and the less than ideal amount of time it has to do something, odds of course favor that it remains just a batch of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Interesting, but nothing yet worthy of even an Invest tag, really. Just not enough going on at the surface to justify that. However, by this time tomorrow, maybe, if it hasn't rained itself out or been snuffed out by the approaching trof from the west, it could yet become a TD. Either way, the results are similar.. tho a TD/low-end TS could also contain some strong, gusty winds.. maybe a few waterspouts and tornadoes... and the track would likely be a little different, with a TC maybe running more northerly, than northeasterly.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Tampa Bay Vertical Wind Profiler is beginning to indicate Anticyclonic flow around 35000ft. Wind speeds are currently near 21kts, but have gained 10kts in the last hour.
While the near surface winds at 1000ft have backed from the SSW to SSE over the last hour. This is normally associated with Cyclonic Flow.
Diagram below shows Cyclonic (Counter-clockwise) flow from 1000ft to 25000ft. With Anti-Cyclonic (clockwise) flow above 30000ft.
Image courtesy of the Plymouth State Weather Center~danielw
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Hurikid
Unregistered
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This morning, it seems that 94L has become "better" organized. Also, the has scheduled a recon later today so we should more or less get the absolute state of this disturbance at that time.
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M.A.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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The weak low in the E GOM seems to be moving onshore this morning around the Cape Coral area. Unless something drastic happens in the next couple of hours, in the way of movement, we will just see lots of rain. Much needed heavy rain  .
Our invest is looking very healthy this morning with a nice blow up of convection on top of the COC. Trying to develop some banding in the north and eastern sides. Looks to me as though it is starting to get its act together. I believe it will finally get a classification today. I also noticed last night that model support for this invest has almost been non existant on the past few runs. I havent checked them this morning though.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Yep, morning satellite certainly showing 94L's previous form. No doubt that a nice circulation exists at some level. Having been fooled once already on this one, i'll tame my own exhuberance regarding this mornings appearance, and await some much welcomed recon data. Not only will this shed some light on the status quo, but more importantly contribute some good data on the upper air. It seems appearant on satellite this morning that there is also some light to moderate N.W. shear either impacting 94L, or perhaps soon to impact the system. That said, if 94L continues its fairly quick westward pace, than it may well catch up with a small upper high presently vacationing in the E. Caribbean.
The more I think about the past few days, and the curiosity of 94L not having developed when conditions appeared quite favorable, I am starting to think that perhaps the culpret was a "net" shear created by a faster low level easterly surge causing a low level center to out run any yet developed mid level. That, or perhaps the system as a whole was moving quick enough by the Easterly surge, that a greater "net" westerly shear had occured, and the system simply never quite developed its own upper anticyclone.
Hmmmm, think i'll go back and ponder some more....
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 16 2008 07:51 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Looks like the center of the FL low is about halfway across and moving NE. Will be interesting to see what happens if it makes it to the Atlantic.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Just a heads up that an INVEST is up on the NOAA sat. site re: the GOM situation.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 16 2008 07:53 PM)
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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The weak GOM low does appear to be on the move, slowly across Fl pen. Definately a heavy rain producer for Fl but could be interesting if it were to re-emerge in the atlantic. Also is it an illusion or does there appear to be some sort of circulation just off the Ga coast? Bouy reports would indicate maybe but pressures do not seem to be lowering at all. :?:
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 34
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Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WONT41 KNHC 161445
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED...
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Jul 16 2008 04:20 PM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, busy days! 94L is looking better on vis imagery, with a large cyclonic envelope evident, as well as low level cloud lines indicating that a LLCC is there, approximately southeast of Barbados. Recon will be in the area within the next hour or so. Earlier microwave imagery suggests that there is also a developing circulation, but not as well defined as current vis imagery would indicate. Will be worth keeping a close eye on the Obs from Recon!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well my invest is now south of Jamaica and finally getting noticed by the saying it may form before getting to C. America or Belieze.....due to its fast movement..this had a hard time developing...same with 94L. I said 3/10 chance and will just bump it up to 4/10...forward speed was the problem.
94Ls chance for development is now....if not...it should wait till it gets to the western carribean.
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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I agree, I've been watching that area to, with an anticyclone right on it, there could be some development. 94L looks extremely ragged, can't even tell if there's a low.. However, it is durinal minimum. Tonight will probably be it's last chance if it hasn't made TD status by then. the GOM low is in FL and some say a new low is forming off my neck of teh woods.. Might have to check it out soon. The tropics today are active!
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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recon has just made the second pass on what i think looks like the center area... *note based on flight path and data... looks to be broad**.... not seen anything standing out in the data yet.
lowest pressure from center area... (appears broad)... 1011mb (~29.85 inHg)
something pretty cool is that the plane is really flying low... 
Aircraft Geopotential Height is at around 144 meters (~ 472 feet)
***note Aircraft Static Air Pressure is 995.0 mb (~ 29.38 inHg)***
attached is map of flight with Funktop color from sat of the AA ... up to 19:30z
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Jul 16 2008 07:44 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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sorry... was away from the computer...
this attachment was the flight path of the recon mission. note the scale in the image... to match with the icon colors.
Transmitted: 16th day of the month
Date: July 16, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
**note the bars represent the HDOB from the flight... some may contain errors
in the image.. you can see recon looked at 3 areas durning the flight... the last one would be the one to the left side of the image... they really spent time on that area... close to the islands
Antilles Radar.. ITS IN FRENCH
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 17 2008 12:25 AM)
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