Brad in Miami
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Not surprising given the limited data and fact that recon will still be out there for a while, but 2am does not shed much light on the questions people are throwing around.
Even if the is asking some of the same questions some people on this board are now asking - and it's possible is not because it has concluded the LLC's motion is essentially on track - I don't think it would have been wise to mention that in the 2am advisory without the recon data or visible images. The potential to confuse the public by raising those possibilities when the answers in the 5am or 11am could just be that the forecast track is essentially unchanged would be, in my opinion, too great.
But I am curious to read what you all think as the night progresses, and of course eager to see recon data.
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Storm Hunter
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THEY MUST OF ISSUED THE 2AM WITHOUT RECON DATA... which means... the first statement... "...FAY NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA..." the flight director had to have called via Sat phone to let them know there inbound, but based on the airborne radar... the center is close to the coast... i expect will get the data in the next 10 mins or so... of location, etc.
"AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST "
"ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES."
got to be to close to the coast to get a good data
BASED on recon data i just looked at... they flew to the south of the center on an ESE heading... which i don't think they sampled the center... i don't see anything in the flight level winds that would show they were close... they stayed about 35 miles off the coast... would love to see them turn north bound right now! 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 06:34 AM)
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WeatherNut
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I think the center has reformed. Could it move from 21N to almost 22N in an hour? Plus, recon is still getting SW winds at the surface so they have not identified where the center is yet...daylight will be very telling
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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scottsvb
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agreed with the on the position...its moving NW. @ 13 and should make landfall within the hour and exit around 8-10am...Monday evening and night it could really strengthen into a hurricane. Time over water will be the factor on how strong she gets. If Fay reaches 83.5W then Tampa Bay could be considerd again.
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scottsvb
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Quote:
I think the center has reformed. Could it move from 21N to almost 22N in an hour? Plus, recon is still getting SW winds at the surface so they have not identified where the center is yet...daylight will be very telling
13 mph is about a avg speed for a tropical system. Landmass interaction and where it exists will now be the talk about Fay for the next 6-8hrs.!
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Storm Hunter
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recon dropped a GPS droponde at 21.0N 80.0W....well to the ESE of the center. reading 1007mb out of it...air temp at surface 28.8°C (83.8°F) its warm!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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WOW.. G-IV took of a bit ago... is Due east of Jacksonville, Fl.. dropping from 45kt... have dropped two Dropsondes. BOY THATS A LONG DAY FOR THE CREW.. not much rest... Sounds like /HRD need more data for the forecast... think its usually a 8-10 hr flight
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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weathernet
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agreed with the on the position...its moving NW. @ 13 and should make landfall within the hour
Um, though I too might typically err on the side of caution, I cannot help but DISAGREE with , and the 2:00a.m position. The attached link, is one of my favorite interactive satellite sites. Go to the 1KM pic of Fay, click on "high" resolution as a "still" or loop. I now have little doubt that we are not witnessing a tight mid level vort center, but that entire envelope is lifting northward. In fact, using the color enchanced IR, I do believe we may be witnessing a significant change to what I believe will be a very interesting 5:00a.m update and cyclone discussion.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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chase 22
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I can see on the very large rotating blob of convection on the Pico San Juan radar and I can see what some people here are hinting at but, if you look at the Punta Del Este radar, and especially the Casablanca radar you will see that the convection is rotating around the true COC thus giving it the appearance of moving due North. You have to look at the big picture and that, too, can sometimes be deceiving
What I see is a rather large system moving NW, and that the is right on the money.
links to all 3 radars.
Pico San Juan radar
Punta Del Este radar
Casablanca radar
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Matt
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Storm Hunter
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last Dropsonde at 21.6N 80.9W... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in rainband... pressure at 1006mb at surface... appears this is just SSE of "center"... winds avg. about 6kts the last 50m (164 ft) above the surface.. air temp at surface 26.0°C (78.8°F), dewpoint 22.6°C (72.7°F)
WOW.. recon went all the way to the shore... Holy Crap.. sweet! They went due north from the 21.6N... to the coast.
Think we FOUND THE CENTER!!! just about to come ashore!!! I think its near 21.93N 81.00W
see attached
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 07:25 AM)
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dem05
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I too must jump on board to agree that a reformation has likely occurred. Interesting, as the mid level center moved right over very tall mountains and the odds were against it, but I guess nothing is impossible. On my patient wait for the heavy thunderstorms to clear the Cuban Radar Site (was waiting to see the radar resolution to improve as the rain fade affect passed). It is apparent on radar that the surface circulation south of Cuba is gone now. This mid level entity is holding together pretty good so far and is about halfway across Cuba at this time. Looking at the mean motion and sorting out the lurch to the west north west earlier today and the reformation to the north tonight...It looks like the 24 hour forcasts from yesterday are verified and the track remains relatively unchanged with a current mean motion to the northwest. If the reformation is confirmed, the structure is much improved and could be over the gulf in 3-6 hours. May not be the best solution after all from the west coast of Florida, as the system could be in better shape than expected when entering the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Also, cutting to the NW of the ULL now/sooner than later could assist in the outflow process of Fay in the SE Gulf. Under such circumstances, she will have a better chance at becoming a Cat 1. Otherwise, even with short term shifts in motion (wnw earlier today, and NW to NNW following this possible reformation) no reason to discount the current forcast track for a west florida storm.
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Storm Hunter
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Sweet.... GPS dropsonde data from center!!!
Right off of Playa Giron, Cuba..
Coordinates: 22.0N 81.0W
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.
Depth of Sounding: From 855mb to 1004mb
Surface 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
wind speed at the surface was 17 knots (20 mph) from 345° (from the NNW)
Interesting to note.. at 5kft.. flight level winds went down to 3mph
So it does appear we have CENTERS... Surface center near 22.0N 81.0W... (per Google Earth, 5 miles from coast)... Second Mid level stronger center over central Cuba. Shear appears to have beaten Fay tonight... will be very interesting morning!
SEE we have found a weaker center/storm... good job AF Recon and ... going to be a crazy morning!!!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 07:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2008
Storm Name: Fay (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 7:12:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°58'N 81°00'W (21.97N 81.00W)
B. Center Fix Location: 38 miles (61 km) to the WSW (251°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,451m (4,760ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 89 nautical miles (102 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 187° at 36kts (From the S at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 6:49:30Z
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 07:43 AM)
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neospaceblue
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I don't know if this is the right place to post this, but the latest GFS forecast has Fay stalling off Georgia and making a "u-turn" back toward Florida, and moving back into the GOM at about 120h.
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I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)
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weathernet
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Given the better overall appearance on radar and especially satellite, am actually surprised that 1005mb was the lowest pressure. Perhaps significant filling, from having passing over ( rugged ) land. If in fact this is so, than we may indeed see a better aligned tropical cyclone when emerging over the Florida Straights, though one with a 1007/1008mb pressure. Hard to imagine that we'll see "that" significant deepening in the hours prior to reaching the Keys ( or latitude of the keys ), with such a starting central pressure.
As a side note........... anyone happen to check out the full 0Z run of . Talk about a case study! If this were to ever verify, than Fay would certainly prove to be the new posterchild storm as "the tropical cyclone that just wouldn't go away". ( shows S. W. Florida landfall, then St. Augustine/Jacksonville landfall, shift WSW and then northward for yet another shot at the N. Gulf Coast )
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Storm Hunter
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I think thats why the G-IV is up right now... they just flew a very long mission less than 12 hrs ago... at last check they were near 28.0N 75.0W. I think that High off the east coast is throwing a monkey into things! ):
but with the beating Fay took over night... i not sure that mid level center will hold coming off Cuba?... wow... all i see is a BIG headache in the morning at the !
by the way, recon went back through the "center" and are flying right down the coast.. i think i might have seen a lower pressure of 1003mb? see attached image of how close we are off there coast... amazing!
New GPS Dropsonde in... at the end of the flight pic i attached... 1005mb.. man were dropping $3,000 dropsondes on Cuba's doorstep.. hehe
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 08:02 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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HOLY CRAP... the PLANE turned and went north from that last location in the image... WoW... Good morning Cubans... buzzing the land at 5kft.. heading due north... this is American Air Force... doing a recon weather mission! lmao
see attached!
UPDATE: There over water again 100 Miles SE of Key West heading east... winds are stronger on north side of Cuba. Seeing surface winds around 50mph off the north side of Cuba. G-IV just flew south over Nassau, Bah.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 08:32 AM)
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flanewscameraman
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I am looking at the radar, and I don't see this storm following the predicted path at the moment. It looked to me like it took a jog north directly, and is headed more towards the tip of the peninsula. Let me know your thoughts please
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mikethewreck
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Read the 0500 discussion. Fay is becoming elongated but the center (LLC) is behind the mass of circulation. I am concerned that Fay is being sucked up northward through the weakness like sucking a blob through a straw, first the MLC, then the LLC to follow or reform under the MLC. As an east coast resident, my level of concern went up this morning.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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FIREREALTY
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I definitely agree,,the majority of it has jogged directly north and the rest is following it,,not just the center. SE Fla is gonna' have the alarm rang in the next few hrs I bet... I'm in Ocala for a course for FD for the week, and I'll be expecting the call to come back....
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flanewscameraman
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I am curious what others think about this. The government of the Bahamas have put the western islands on a tropical storm watch, and I am wondering with the models trending east, and the saying in the 5 am discussion that some eastward adjustments may be needed down the line, what this means for the east coast. Will the storm continue to the west coast, but lower on the peninsula, or will it take a more direct northward direction. I have my gas and supplies, but have not put up my shutters. Let me know
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