JoshuaK
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Is it my imagination, or does the latest visible satellite loops (Jun 22nd 15:15 UTC being the latest one) show multipule LLC vorticies forming within a cluster of persistent convection extending from 19N to 15N and 73W to 70W?
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weatherguy08
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Looking at the latest visible loop, seems like something could be get established around 16 N, 71 W. There's also deep convection firing around this "center" in the last frame. It will be interesting to see if some of this convection can wrap around the center. The lack of surface obs in the region isn't helping to establish if there is a surface circulation of any kind. I pretty much agree with what the others have said: we won't really know until reconnaissance gets out there tomorrow afternoon.
Visible loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
Infrared loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html
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Jason
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com
Andrew '92 - Lili '02 - Katrina '05 - Rita '05 - Humberto '07 - Gustav '08 - Ike '08 - Isaac '12 - Sandy '12
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Chris 566
Unregistered
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My ussue with the Forecast models right now is how far south they have been initialized. Proximity to Hispaniola will obviously inhibit development early on.... otherwise we should see the typical, realitively gradual, organization process.
Have a great day!
Take care...
Chris
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hogrunr
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Agreed...based on what is starting to show up on the satellite images now, the models have almost all been initialized to far south, but going through the rest of today should start to get things ironed out, if in fact an LLC is trying to form.
That being said, because of 93L's position, I don't believe the interaction with Hispaniola will hinder the development so much, since this would require an almost due north turn. I believe the possibility of future interaction with Jamaica and/or Cuba will be a big determining factor in the possibility of future development.
All of the models are fluctuating based on their assumption that this will interact with land, either Cuba or the Yucatan, thus hindering development. So this is still a crap shoot as far as the models are concerned, they (almost) all started very strong on this, based on the system shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan, and now have backed off due to their own predicted land interaction, so we will most likely just need to wait and see what direction this system takes before any valid prediction of intensity can be made.
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ftlaudbob
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As of 2pmest the has lowered the chance of development to 20%.But it also states the over that next few days it could have a better chance of getting organized.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Jun 22 2010 05:54 PM)
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weatherguy08
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I'm a bit surprised the went all the way down to 20%. There definitely seems to be a better circulation (maybe not low-level) than there was yesterday, wind shear remains low, and virtually all of the models except the develop the system. I could have maybe seen 30% or 40%, but 20% seems quite low. I guess all things considered, it's just a number, but it looks reasonably organized, not enough for a depression obviously, but I would probably say there is a 40% chance of development during the next 48 hours.
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Jason
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com
Andrew '92 - Lili '02 - Katrina '05 - Rita '05 - Humberto '07 - Gustav '08 - Ike '08 - Isaac '12 - Sandy '12
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Ed in Va
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I've got to believe its the proximity to the DR/Haiti for the next couple of days that caused the back-off.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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SeaMule
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...can't remember a time when a developing system could get through the Carribean this time of year.
I know what my eyes are seeing...a developing wave. ...imho, it will be a named storm before it gets to the GOM
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stormtiger
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Yes, the fact that the weather is closer to the DR, it's also closer to the subtrpical jet and thus the sheer.
Plus you have to remember, it is June and despite the high water temps, there has to be good reasons for storms not to form in the east and central carribean at this time of the year.
I see mid level vortex now, but it is quite a bit north of where the models were initiating a s depression yesterday. This has to change everything we've seen from the models.
If something does form, it is more likely it will be later than sooner; and weaker than strong.
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danielw
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The only thing that I see different right now is the terrain of Hispaniola seems to be blocking some of the low and mid level shear.
Hispaniola Topography Map
Current static visible shot here, 1km Visible Goes East
Center near 19.6N/ 71.4W, or just south of the southern most point of Hispaniola. Cape Beata.
Static visible at time of this post in the above attachment.
Select a 6 image loop at medium zoom and you can identify a rather vigorous vortice just S to SSW of Cape Beata.
Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 22 2010 07:56 PM)
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weatherguy08
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It appears that our system is farther north and east than the 18Z models have initialized it. This will have significant repercussions on the eventual track and intensity of the system since it will likely move closer to the islands. I'm beginning to lean a little more towards the models on the right (north and east) side of the model envelope. While they initialize a little too far south as well, the present motion of the system (northwest at about 15 mph) should take it right into the current forecast track of the HWRF and during the next 12 to 24 hours. Assuming development occurs, the Gulf Coast definitely needs to watch this.
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Jason
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com
Andrew '92 - Lili '02 - Katrina '05 - Rita '05 - Humberto '07 - Gustav '08 - Ike '08 - Isaac '12 - Sandy '12
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Storm Hunter
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after studying all available images today... appears to me that the mid level center is northeast of the surface broad area of circulation... i would point the surface area near 16N 75W....
Speed the loop up and look at the lower clouds...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim16vis.html
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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B_from_NC
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I concur. The poorly organized center of all those clouds certainly appears to be where the 18Z models suggest. The mid-level swirl which faked itself as center should wind down soon.
4km Floater
Other observations....
Overall system is quite large and might take a bit to wind up.
Gulf region should certianly have their kits ready in the event it makes it out of the graveyard.
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Storm Hunter
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after looking at 18Z data... a curve in the GOM is looking more likely to me... just when and where is way to far out to tell... the still is agressive with the system in GOM... 18Z is very concering... this path would be bad for the central gulf coast... including the Oil Spill area... a system coming north and on the west side of the oil spill would be devasting to the Gulf Coast....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2010062218-invest93l/slp21.png
**Appears tonight that the broad area of circulation is begining to fire up storms near where i think we may have surface low form...tonight will be interesting to watch**
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
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Quote:
after looking at 18Z data... a curve in the GOM is looking more likely to me... just when and where is way to far out to tell... the still is agressive with the system in GOM... 18Z is very concering... this path would be bad for the central gulf coast... including the Oil Spill area... a system coming north and on the west side of the oil spill would be devasting to the Gulf Coast....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2010062218-invest93l/slp21.png
**Appears tonight that the broad area of circulation is begining to fire up storms near where i think we may have surface low form...tonight will be interesting to watch**
I agree, tonight will be interesting. The big question I'm not convinced about is whether it even develops at all. It's cycling back and forth between being on the verge of developing and on the verge of falling apart, which I guess is normal this time of year.
All of the 18Z data appears to point to an Opal-like track, going very near (possibly over) the Yucatan, before hooking toward the east-central Gulf Coast. Of course, the models could change once it gets its act together, but it definately looks like a POTENTIALLY devastating situation could arise.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
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The model trend today is heading more north, possibly in the gulf. Although development, if it does, looks to be more Thursday/Friday. For future track, the Yucatan is holding as most likely, especially if the system stays weak longer, but the Gulf still needs to watch this system.
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Hugh
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Quote:
The model trend today is heading more north, possibly in the gulf. Although development, if it does, looks to be more Thursday/Friday. For future track, the Yucatan is holding as most likely, especially if the system stays weak longer, but the Gulf still needs to watch this system.
Is the recon still scheduled for tomorrow? It doesn't seem to be organized enough right now to justify recon, but that could change tomorrow. I don't quite understand what you mean.... model trend is heading more north, but the Yucatan is most likely?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
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Yes.. Recon is still planned....
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 22 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-022
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1330Z
D. 17.0N 77.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT - TEAL 71
A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 24/0100Z
D. 17.5N 79.5W
E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Its appears that /NHC thinking tonight is much more active on developing a system now... the 72hr surface plot puts a low off MX coast... with possible tropical cyclone development starting late tmrw., and an track into the GOM.
see attached
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Use caution with the satellite shots from www.ssd.noaa.gov.
For the last two nights they are nearly 4 hours behind. it's 0407Z and latest shots are 0015Z.
It appears they have made an adjustment. Sats are running less than one hour behind at 0740z. 3:40 EDT
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 23 2010 07:41 AM)
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