danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
That transition would lend to the southern track being more correct.
This could be both good and bad. Depending on how far south the system drifts and whether it can reorganise..
A drift to the west would place the system in the Hurricane graveyard of the Caribbean.
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 03 2010 05:58 PM)
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
It looks like the energy from Colin is being displaced to the trough of low pressure that has preceded Colin across the Atlantic. The had something like this late last week with a north system and a south system (which was dismissed as the 's inability to bundle the energy). Perhaps this is what is verifying out right now. If there ends up being 2 systems, maybe its the southern part that is being seen in the gulf late in the week
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 155
Loc:
|
|
I'm starting to wonder that myself. If TS Colin goes back to a tropical depression, I wonder if it will not be swept to the northwest but remain in a westerly direction as it progresses into the Caribbean. It almost looks as if the convection to the northwest of Colin is being aided by the southwesterly shear from the upper-level low to its west.
Edited by WesnWylie (Tue Aug 03 2010 07:40 PM)
|
JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
I can't even find any spin at all associated with any of the convection or otherwise. I'm thinking Colin either has dissipated or degenerated into an open wave. The only rotation I can find is an odd area of clockwise rotation on the NE edge of the convection on the SE corner of the system area.
|
Jasonch
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
|
|
colin has dissapated and the will no longer issue advisories unless regeneration occurs. This season was way overdone. Nothing out there has a chance to get going because of the conditions.
Edited by Jasonch (Tue Aug 03 2010 08:49 PM)
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
Interesting though that the calls for it to regain "depression" status by Sunday, so maybe we haven't heard the last of Colin.
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Appears to me that the takes the open wave and misses the weakness and turns it towards the west towards Northern Florida at the end of the 5-7 day forecast period.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 03 2010 08:53 PM)
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Quote:
colin has dissapated and the will no longer issue advisories unless regeneration occurs. This season was way overdone. Nothing out there has a chance to get going because of the conditions.
We have a long way to go,and conditions can change at anytime.Remember most hurricanes happen in Sept.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Jasonch
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
colin has dissapated and the will no longer issue advisories unless regeneration occurs. This season was way overdone. Nothing out there has a chance to get going because of the conditions.
We have a long way to go,and conditions can change at anytime.Remember most hurricanes happen in Sept.
I know things can change at anytime and usually if my area is going to get affected by a hurricane it is usually sept. But still the conditions are just not conducive for development. Take for instance 2009 season just about every storm that was out just had a very difficult time getting going because of to much shear and to much dry air. Remember this year was to be the exact opposite no shear and very moist air and that has yet to materialize.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
At 5pm still has it as a TS.What is going on?
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Jasonch
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
|
|
no longer a T.S it was just moving to quickly that the center out ran the convection.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Quote:
no longer a T.S it was just moving to quickly that the center out ran the convection.
Then why is the showing it as a TS?
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Jasonch
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
|
|
it is the last advisory. I guess they will update the graphics later.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Not to beat a dead horse,but the graphics are from the latest adv. @5pm.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Mainly because it's not even a depression, when storms have turned into lows, the last advisory always repeats what the storm was prior to the last advisory, most of the time it's a depression at the time, but some cases it isn't Colin is such a case. So the advisory just restates it to finalize it.
It's gone, and not incredibly likely to come back as a Storm (At least for another 6 years), the hurricane center does forecast a chance of it coming back at the tail end of the discussion, but it's not a sure thing. The forward motion of 35MPH is a clear indicator of that.
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Ok, let me try this. Normally a hurricane degenerates into a tropical storm and a tropical storm degenerates into a tropical depression at the end of the storm's life cycle as a tropical entity. The last bulletin on Alex said "Tropical Depression Alex..." and ditto for Bonnie:
"ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
...BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE..."
Note that on the last bulletin it is still called Tropical Depression. With Colin, the system went directly from a Tropical Storm to an open wave (no wind with a westerly component in this case). It is now really a gale (low pressure) center with winds still at 40mph sustained and therefore an area of tropical storm force winds still exist (as noted in the bulletins). Because Colin went directly from TS to open wave the final bulletin carried the Tropical Storm designation rather than Tropical Depression (because the wind speed in a portion of the storm is still above tropical depression strength). The status (TD or TS or Hurricane) and system name are just carried for reference purposes on the last bulletin. When a Hurricane hits far northern latitudes and becomes , it is still called a Hurricane on the final bulletin:
"ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON OCT 18 1999
...IRENE BECOMING AS IT RACES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN..."
Hopes this helps to clarify the issue.
ED
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Kinda confused tonight... model Tropical Suite run has 98L for the caribbean... had 92L and further north... anyone know whats going on?
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100804 0000 UTC
......
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 69.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 65.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 62.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
I noticed that earlier - somebody just made an error - next number up would have been 92L. Automated systems really get messed up when this happens. model output display also shows 98 because they take it off the model output message.
ED
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
will be interesting to see if this error is corrected or not.... 98L... will it turn into 92L at 06Z?
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/d...;latestinvest=1
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 155
Loc:
|
|
The remnants from Colin are firing up very nicely tonight. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues tomorrow or not. It still appears to be south of the track from what I can tell (Although I am not for sure where the center is).
--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
