MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Colin Regenerates
Sun Aug 01 2010 08:31 AM
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6 PM EDT Update, Aug 5, 2010
Tropical Storm Colin has regenerated after recon aircraft found tropical storm force winds and a circulation tonight.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Bermuda as the forecast track takes it just west of the island Saturday night.
It is forecast to stay under hurricane strength before extratropical transition in about 4 days.
The storm is not a direct threat to the US Mainland.
{{StormLinks|Colin|04|4|2010|1|Colin}}
{{StormLinks|92L|92|5|2010|2|92L}}
{{StormLinks|93L|93|6|2010|2|93L}}
{{StormCarib}}
7 AM EDT Update, Aug 5, 2010
The Tropical Atlantic continues the downturn which will probably last until the week of August 15th. In the meantime, though, the remnants of Colin seemed to organize some yesterday only to be somewhat squashed again today.
Colorado State's (Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach) predictions were updated yesterday, and they are unchanged with 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 majors. So far there have been 3 named storms and 1 hurricane, which leaves 15 more named storms, 9 more hurricanes, and 5 majors still to come according to them. There is still plenty to suggest the peak of the season will be active, and that is yet to come.
Regeneration of Colin may not occur, but if it were to it would be tonight at the earliest, with it being more likely toward the weekend. It's still currently at a 40% chance to regenerate. Odds still greatly favor it going out to sea regardless of development.
The wave in the Caribbean, on the other hand, fell apart overnight and chances for development will likely be dropping, and may never develop.
Another area in the Central Atlantic could be worth watching over the weekend or next week, but the overall set up for storms doesn't improve until at or just after mid August.
9 PM EDT Update, Aug 3, 2010
The wave in the Eastern Caribbean Sea has been designated Invest 92L.
This Area being highlighted is to the Southwest of Puerto Rico, and will have to be watched over the next few days.
6 PM EDT Update, Aug 3, 2010
Tropical Storm Colin became a Tropical Storm this morning, and after finding no evidence of a closed circulation from buoy reports this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Colin. But interestingly, forecasts it to Regain Tropical Depression status this weekend.
The center of Colin was ripped out by the influence of shear caused by a upper level (TUTT) low to the northwest of it, conditions don't begin to improve for it until Thursday/Friday or perhaps even in to the weekend. It will be tracked as a low pressure area, but will not have advisories unless it regains some strength.
The track still remains out to sea, because of the same TUTT area and weakness it has helped to generate. Those in the Carolinas will want to watch the area in case it regenerates, but odds are it won't have any direct affect.
The area in the East Caribbean is close to South America, which is preventing any development, and likely won't develop much at all, however the area closer to Puerto Rico may take over and if that does it may have to be watched. Outside of this, there isn't anything in the short term that could develop. Mid August is when most of the historical activity happens, and we'll be watching closely then for development.
6:15 AM EDT Update, Aug 3, 2010
Tropical Storm Colin has formed and odds are increasing that it will stay out to sea. Colin may be approaching some rather hostile conditions (shear along with a TUTT) over the next few days, and will have little chance to strengthen beyond a Tropical Storm before getting there.
The Northeastern Caribbean, Bermuda and North Carolina will want to watch for changes in the track forecast, but odds are they will not be directly affected. Outside of that, there isn't much evidence to suggest further westward at this time. So those in other areas may want to watch it for any drastic changes in track, but that isn't likely.
The area in the Eastern Caribbean may form later in the week if it persists into the Western Caribbean, it currently isn't being tracked as an Invest.
{{StormCarib}}
11AM EDT Update, Aug 2, 2010
Invest 91L has been upgraded to the fourth Tropical Depression of the 2010 season. TD #4 is located well to the east of the Caribbean Islands moving to the west northwest at 17mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1006MB. Motion should continue to the west northwest with an eventual increase in forward speed. Additional intensification to Tropical Storm strength is likely. Although current track projections keep the system to the northeast of the Caribbean islands, residents of the northern islands should still closely monitor the development and progress of TD #4 over the next few days.
ED
7AM EDT Update 2 August 2010
The wave in the central Caribbean, marked as 91L, had a shot yesterday at becoming a depression, but a reliable indicator of a center of circulation could not be found. Today it may become a depression if that can be found.
Odds still slightly favor this system going out to sea, but much of it centers on if the system starts to move more northward or more westward.
If the system remains weak, or does not develop it will likely slip further west, shifting the forecasting model trends in general more toward the west as well. But until the system develops (or doesn't) using them to determine much other than comparing the short term trends to reality. Beyond that, what was written yesterday is pretty much the same.
If it starts moving more northerly, then out to sea becomes even more likely.
Those in the northeastern Caribbean will want to watch this very close, especially if the system slips further westward, and those in the Bahamas, Bermuda, Florida, and Southeast Coast up into the Carolinas may want to check back in a few days.
The is another wave, south and east of 91L that may be worth watching later as well.
Original Update
The wave in the Central Atlantic (redesignated 91L) now has a 60% chance for development in the next 48 hours, and if it does, tomorrow or Tuesday would be the best bet.
The odds are now that it will approach the northeastern Caribbean sometime later this week (most likely Wednesday/Thursday) and may just miss or clip it to the north, the system has a fairly slow forward motion right now.
It is still too far out to make a determination beyond that, but there's enough of a toss up (as far as remaining out to sea vs more westward) that it can't be ignored. If the system remains weaker, it may go further south into the Caribbean or over most of the islands and get torn up over Hispaniola. If it strengthens or forms earlier the more northerly situation is likely. Atmospheric conditions are very favorable for the latter.
What are the odds favoring now? Strengthening and the more northerly route. Although shear will increase as it gets closer to the islands which likely will keep it from being too strong until past the northeastern Caribbean.
Since the odds are more favorable for the northerly route, a key to the future track may be the presence of two upper ridges, one west of Bermuda and another over the southern plain states. If a weakness exists offshore the Carolinas, that would be what drags the wave more northerly, and if it barely misses the northeastern Caribbean, would be the cause. What's not happening there would likely be enough to continue to pull it out to sea. What happens after that is the weakness gets plugged, which completes the ridge and generally drags it more westward, which is why those in Florida would want to watch it. Chances for a gulf impact without Florida are low currently, but not non-existent. .
It will take until it develops and trends over the next few days to up the odds in any particular situation though. It is still very early, and nothing has developed yet. However it is August now, and historically this is the time to be very careful about systems such as these. All said and done, the odds still slightly favor it going out to sea.
Who will need to watch the system over the next week or so if it does develop? Northeastern Caribbean. Bahamas, Florida (particularly east central and south Florida), and the southeast Coast up to the Carolinas. The good news is that shear closer toward the Caribbean goes up, which will likely keep the system from getting too strong.
When? (Estimates can change if the forward motion of the system changes)
If it affects Northeast Caribbean?, for them Wednesday/Thursday
If it affects Bahamas? Saturday
If it affects Florida/East Coast? Sunday/Monday (next week)
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