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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: C-Eye takin' the high road
      #14806 - Wed Jun 02 2004 09:26 PM

Bobbi is old-school. I only catch her here or on jimw's site. Personally I love S2K. That's my #2 board. There are great mets and researchers that work through those threads. There's some fluff (affirmations and the like, and I'm guilt of that over there as well), but that comes with active posters. It's all good to me. Not everything is for everyone.

Steve


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
why cant...
      #14807 - Wed Jun 02 2004 09:27 PM

those of us who guessed put our guesses in our profiles

i mean besides things like moutain climbing.. eating snickers and remote control surfer

we could use our profiles for something useful and real

just a thought

anyway...
more concerned with what happens than guesswork this year

like to see the pattern emerge and the problem that busts the pattern, every year has one problem... low water temps, too strong winds pushing waves too fast, dust.. always something... waiting to see what that something is

enjoy the evening bobbi



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Dudes & dudettes...
      #14808 - Wed Jun 02 2004 09:34 PM

Sorry I brought it up. C'mon, even if we agree to disagree, it's all in good fun here. OK (Sorry C-yey) this is the BEST weather chat site around. That's why we're all here.

Don't want to make any enemies but want to give shouts out to the "other" weather sites. S2K is one of those, so are weather.com, Accuweather.com, jimw's site and about 1 million more I could post. We're all here to learn and experience others' stories. In fact, that could be yet another forum..."personal experiences" I imagine posters like Frank P & Steve could fill pages with their own experiences...

Alright, enough out of me. In the immotal words of Johnny Cochrane,

"why can't we all just get along?"

LIP

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Florida
Re: Is the NHC site having problems?
      #14809 - Wed Jun 02 2004 09:40 PM

I think the NHC site may be having issues also, there have been times when i could not access the site at all. Also the first TWO of the season was supposed to be issued at 5:30am on June 1, it was not issued until after 9am and yet still had a 5:30am issuance time. And there is still no 8:05pm update to the TWD. Not sure what is going on

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: C-Eye takin' the high road
      #14810 - Wed Jun 02 2004 09:40 PM

Well I am at CFHC because I like the discussions this board has when things begin to heat up in the tropics and I like to participate in them with my knowledge I have of tropical weather and for no other reason I am here.I am eagered to start to discuss about systems forming in the atlantic or in the GOM and I hope we wont wait too long to see Alex form.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Wed Jun 02 2004 09:57 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: C-Eye takin' the high road
      #14811 - Wed Jun 02 2004 10:03 PM

As long as we're in a bit of a lull...C=eye, I have to ask you...

You must be fluent in spanish? but your anglais is also awesome. Wish I was able to speak another language. Keep up your most awesome posts!!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2310
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Some Guidance
      #14812 - Wed Jun 02 2004 11:29 PM

First, a sincere thank you to Cycloneye for his kind words. I don't care too much for the notion of downplaying another site, especially one that is not of a professional nature, because I know the hard work that it takes to keep a good balance between all of the users of the site and the time and thought that it takes just to develop a new thread of interest - and that can be really tough if there's not that much of anything interesting that's going on. I've visited Storm2K from time to time just to get the thoughts of Cycloneye or Barometer Bob or others. Some sites may be better than others in their content, but they ALL take hard work to maintain interest and to keep things on an even keel.

Regarding new Forums, go back and read the by-line for the Storm Forum. I'd really like to see everybody use it for what it really was intended for. I started a thread that was my 2004 Forecast Update and urged you to put your own 'numbers' forecast in that thread by Saturday (or at least this weekend). Not only does this keep those forecasts in one place, it makes it a lot easier for me when I post a Summary at the end of the season and give credit to those who did a good job with their forecasts.

Another thread in the Storm Forum has the title: First Storm of the Season - and thats the place that I'd like to see all of your individual 'guesstimates'. Its not that a new Forum could not be generated, its just that I'm not convinced that you would use it. Here is an example: In the past few threads their have been some great posts on past hurricanes. Some of these have been summaries from NHC and other sources and some have been accounts of personal experiences...and ALL of them really would have been ideal material for the Hurricane History Forum. Here's an example of why its important to put that stuff in the right place. This year we have gained many new registered users and other visitors. If I was moving south and east to the Atlantic or Gulf coast, and I wanted to learn more about hurricanes that may have made landfall in the coastal area that I was moving to AND I stumbled across CFHC in my internet search for this info, I'd see the Hurricane History Forum and pay it a visit - and I'd probably be disappointed because there is not too much material. Its all sprinkled throughout the Main News threads where in a matter of a few short months it is long forgotten - so please go back and copy some of that great stuff into the Hurricane History Forum.

One new Forum that probably could be useful however would be an Other Weather Events forum - for comments on twisters and record temperatures, droughts, floods, etc. I'll have to see what Mike and John (and you) think about that.

Finally, we've all now had our initial 'rush' as the new season has started with our (way too) many hellos to our familiar posting friends. I'm sure that some of you have noticed that I've done a little editing from time to time On the positive side, I am very pleased to see that you have included our new members in your welcoming remarks - there are times when you guys and gals are a real 'class act' - and I mean that! But I also think that its now time to get on with the business of watching and reporting on the tropical Atlantic basin. Help me out here, because I'd rather use my time for posting comments and answering questions rather than editing posts.

One thing really has improved over the past few years, and thats the growing 'corporate knowledge' of the site. Now when a new question is asked or an explanation is sought, I don't often have to respond because the seasoned site veterans have already taken care of it - and Bettye really appreciates that because its less time that I have to be on the computer Thanks gang for all your help.
Cheers,
ED


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Some Guidance
      #14813 - Thu Jun 03 2004 03:40 AM

An 'Other Weather Events Forum' would probably be quite cool, not to mention interesting. It would be useful when there is a lull in tropical activity - like now!

On another note - have the rains arrived in Florida yet?


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John C
Unregistered




Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
      #14814 - Thu Jun 03 2004 07:00 AM

On a personal note I want to welcome everyone to CFHC for the 2004 season. As most of you know I do not post that often in the forums but I do read them all. Everyone have fun and be safe. I will try post more often this year now that my busy life has settled down a bit. Thank you all for making CFHC what it is today.
-John


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Cajun
Unregistered




Gulf Next Week
      #14815 - Thu Jun 03 2004 08:43 AM

Local Mets here in SW Louisiana are hinting at some possible action next week in the gulf. Any thoughts?

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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Gulf Next Week
      #14816 - Thu Jun 03 2004 09:31 AM

I wouldn't be surprised - SSTs have warmed significantly in the last couple of weeks, so in that respect conditions are favourable. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if anything happens.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Gulf Next Week
      #14817 - Thu Jun 03 2004 10:57 AM

>>Local Mets here in SW Louisiana are hinting at some possible action next week in the gulf. Any thoughts?

That was what we were alluding to last week. Supposedly a trof split (in progress) will dump a piece down in the Gulf along with a slow Southerly or Southeasterly flow setting up in the Gulf around or just after the 10th. I haven't looked at the long range models in a few days, but the GFS ensembles did hint at some activity. It's more a concern for late next week or weekend, and the GFS had it in the eastern gulf (with an overdone ridge in central TX which has been speculated to be more into New Mexico.

Lemme go see what the GFS is doing today:

MRF/GFS 10 Day Surface Pressure + Precip Amounts

Looks like the GFS is hinting at some action in both the western and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Whether that is deep tropical flow on both sides or a compromise for something more in the central gulf is debatable.

Here is the link to the NCEP depiction of the GFS Operationals which go out to about 384 hours:

GFS Operational Model


--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Well Said Ed!
      #14818 - Thu Jun 03 2004 11:01 AM

Ed,

Great post, as always. I'm certainly the most guilty of giving "shouts out" to our returning regulars. Also, probably a bad suggestion of mine to ask you to start a new forum...you're right...all the info is there if I actually took the time to look...maybe I'll do a "side" forum with that info in the future, as I probably have more free time than you to do that.

Sorry for all the 'extra' posts...I'll make sure all my future ones deal ONLY with the weather.

Last "shout" out: C-eye, for keeping it real and on the up and up. You're a class act dude, and your posts are always welcome (at least to me).

As far as the potential development in the gulf next week...I'm about to log on to accuwx, I'll let you know if Joe B has anything further on that.

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cajun
Unregistered




Invest 92L is up on the NRL
      #14819 - Thu Jun 03 2004 11:15 AM

Wow so early in the year for Africa. Oh well at least its something to watch.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Gulf Next Week
      #14820 - Thu Jun 03 2004 11:16 AM

Buon giorno

Nothing to exciting on the sat pixs to indicate anything happening anytime soon, most of the thunderstorm activity right now all too close to land near the northern GOM and BOC and not very impressive at the moment either. So say we look at the models and what do they tell us… not much…. Here's a good link for those new to the site…

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

The PSU link from this site has not been updated since last year….

"Warning" relying on models to come to fruition can be hazardous to your mental and emotional well being, use with extreme caution"

SSTs would support something minimal if anything were to develop, northern GOM temps running near 80 deg, west central GOM at 81 deg, east GOM a little higher at 82 deg…

ciao


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Gulf Development
      #14821 - Thu Jun 03 2004 11:19 AM

Steve already covered it in his post above...Joe B's in Tejas at the moment, so he hasn't posted yet. I'll let you know when he does...but here's the latest from the "tropical" updates:

"One place to watch for possible development is the southeast coast of the U.S. later in the week. A disturbance tracking along an old frontal boundary across the southern states will fire up strong thunderstorms over land; it is possible that this system exits off the Southeast coast, and becomes an organized system, once it gets over the relatively warm waters for this time of the year."

Obviously still hinting at the southern system bombing out off the southeast coast this weekend, no thoughts on anything in the gulf...yet. As of yesterday, JB was thinking the EPAC invest would become Blas, and the teleconnections would place something in the gulf around 6/10. Bears watching...

11:30 update: Joe B's forecast was truncated as he's not at home or work and has limited access to data. Nothing on gulf development next week but still thinks the southern system may develop late Sat/Early Sunday.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Gulf Development
      #14822 - Thu Jun 03 2004 11:35 AM

Yeah LI Phip, a couple of the models I referred to in my earlier link shows that low pressure developing over land and then moving off the SE coast, somewhere north (models vary, some more north than others) of the NC coast, but the water temps right now are running 75 to 77 degrees in that area of the Atlantic, which is not ideal. This is not an area that is consider a climatological hot spot for early season tropical development… then again ....

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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Gulf Development
      #14823 - Thu Jun 03 2004 11:41 AM

I suppose it's not impossible for development to occur there - there are plenty of examples of storms developing over water temperatures that are less than ideal. Perhaps something minimal could develop there, but then you never know...

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Gulf Development
      #14824 - Thu Jun 03 2004 11:56 AM

It would be "rogue storm" (hybrid) type of development where the core warms in relation to it's surroundings although they are too cold to harbor anything purely tropical. I need to go look at the PSU myself.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14825 - Thu Jun 03 2004 11:57 AM

Not very impressive and pretty far south but here's the link

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


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