RobC
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
|
|
Hi. Newly registered user here who has followed Charlie the last few days through this forum. I'd first like to say that I'm amazed with the meteorological knowledge displayed on this web site. I'm an amateur hurricane tracker, and have learned quite a bit about the nitty-gritty physics of hurricanes just by reading posts here. Though I'm sure my words don't carry a lot of weight, I would just like to say what a good job posters have been doing here.
I would like to make a brief comment on Danielle and Earl. It seems to me to be quite rare for the the first five tropical depressions of a season to all develop into named storms. Furthermore, if Danielle and Earl do develop into hurricanes (as expected), isn't this also unusual that four of the five depressions have developed into hurricanes?
Finally, given that we are just now approaching the peak of the hurricane season, I am wondering if we might actually exceed the recent updated 2004 hurricane forecast of 7 hurricanes, 3 major. Is it possible to end up having 8-9 hurricanes with 4-5 being major (given that it is only mid-August)? I would be interested in anyone's thoughts on this...
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 14 AUGUST 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUG 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-077
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 15/1200,1800Z A. 16/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0105A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 15/0930Z C. 15/2230Z
D. 12.9N 58.8W D. 14.2N 62.5W
E. 15/1100Z TO 15/1830Z E. 15/2300Z TO 16/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 14 2004 11:59 PM)
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
It is possible, but not likely as these major hurricanes can exhaust the energy supplies by churning up the water and exposing cooler deeper waters to the surface. However, having said that, this was such as fast mover she/he did not spend too much time in any one place, leaving miles of untapped heat energy in place. It is going to be an interesting season no matter what happens from now on. The Florida peninsula has still got several sides it could be approached from and of course that goes for all the coast lines exposed to the gulf or atlantic.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
|
|
It seems odd that the press is all over Punto Gorda and not too much out of Port Charlotte.
Any ideas why?
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT 14 AUG 2004
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE OCTOBER THAN AUGUST WITH A
DEEP TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST INTO LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF.
ALL-TIME COLD FOR AUGUST HAS OCCURRED IN PLACES OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES....
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AFTER THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR.......THE EARLIEST
SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE SINCE 1955...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NEAR 21N41W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG ELY FLOW AND LOW VALUES OF
VERTICAL SHEAR THOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN DANIELLE/TD 5. THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH TO 18N/19N OVER THE NEXT DAYS AS A TROUGH DIGS
AHEAD OF DANIELLE... POSSIBLY PROVIDING SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS
|
52255225
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
|
|
Out of Tampa its all over equally! Lot of damage all over the center of the state.
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
Earl appears to be making some people nervous already. I am reading about unseasonably cool temperatures around Lousianna.I was wondering about . Could he have developed subtropical characteristics since the in-land damage was so narrow and so oddly patterned. For Instance, there were places in the path that were clobbered. Then other places that were for the most part unscathed. I may still be in aftermath shock but, something is bugging me about this hurricane season.
nevermind.. i was going to comment, but see that clark did a better job below. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 15 2004 04:44 AM)
|
Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
|
|
I have to agree with you...my gut (which is rather large..lol) feeling tells me that this hurricane season is going to be one that will go down as one for the books, and not in a good way. I'm a little worried about Earl, if he strengthens to a C3 or 4 and takes a more westerly path into the gulf and heads toward Louisiana or Southern Alabama, we here in Atlanta will be bailing water for days. But then again it could be another Bonnie which dumped almost 2" of rain in an hour here in Atlanta...
Again my thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected by Bonnie and , and we'll see about next weekend...
Best wishes from the home of the NL East leading Atlanta Braves
--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
Edited by Jeffmidtown (Sun Aug 15 2004 12:44 AM)
|
BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
|
|
I would agree something is defintely different about this season. I think the is noticing it too, to the point they are mentioning it in their discussions (see danielw's post).
But as far as 's path, I don't see it much different than Andrew. The energy of the storm was tight and compact around the center, just like Andrew. I rode out Andrew about a mile south of my house, and just in that mile, the damage difference was night and day, my place was virtually untouched, while a mile south all the trees were stripped of their leaves and/or flattened. And then go ten miles further south, and it was total devastation, go 20 miles south of that, and just a few tree limbs down.
I don't buy into Danielle recurving way east. I can't say why, but looking at the global models, I just don't see why it would. If someone with more knowledge in this can explain why, I'd love to hear it, because I am obviously missing something obvious.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Sun Aug 15 2004 12:54 AM)
|
recmod
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
The latest numbers for Danielle are now 4.0/4.0, which would support a 65 knot hurricane. This will probably be upgraded at 11pm
--Lou
|
javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
I don't think so Guppie I think was all Tropical.Earl looking better all the Time amazing that these storms are holding it together at 25mph.I'm looking fo player's next week guy's.When and where is the next front suppose to come.I see two ULL'S one at 70W and 30N and a small one(probably the one from ) at 88W and 22N(not moving much).It seems the fronts have been 7-10 days apart.It's far reaching really a guess if there is another one in the GOM I would speculate FL panhandle to mid Texas just a guess.
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
GuppieGrouper - you listed the reasons why was most certainly a tropical system and not subtropical or . One of the primary defining characteristics of a tropical cyclone is a tight, compact wind field with the strongest winds near the center in the eye. The damage from is consistant with this, as you noted. Subtropical systems and particularly systems have their strongest winds well-removed from the center of circulation. The satellite signature & cyclone phase analyses from the models all confirm a tropical cyclone at it's strongest warm core when it made landfall.
BillD - the models are picking up on the remnants of both and Bonnie merging together with the trough along the east coast and moving across the Atlantic to pick up Danielle. We've been joking that and Bonnie will get together and become Charnie (coincidentally, there was a meteorologist a long time ago named Charney who worked in instability theory); now if Danielle joins the party, we've got Charnielle on our hands. But, it's likely that's what they are picking up on to recurve the system...we'll see in the next couple of days if that plays out.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
I have to agree with BillD.Danielle stength maybe?That can cause a poleward drift from what's what discuused around the board.Phil or Dan might have some insight maybe the ridge breaks down later.I havn't learn yet how to read the MB maps and there effects.
|
javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
Clark's the Man
Hey Clark isn't that when the talk about baronic comes in .I have only read alittle about it do not fully understand it all.
Edited by javlin (Sun Aug 15 2004 01:10 AM)
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
It was strange driving around North Orlando area today. Lots of people out in all the neighborhoods I drove through cleaning up tons and tons of downed trees and debris. Neighbors helping neighbors. Many streets not passable due to downed trees and power lines.
I too think that this is going to be an extremely active next couple of months in the tropics.
I know that I'm keeping my hurricane supplies handy.,
|
BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
|
|
Clark,
Thanks for the great explanations, and the whole Charnie, Charnielle thing cracked me up. But I'm still not convinced that the high will weaken enough that far east for Danielle to turn, of course the stronger she is (and she is definitely strenghtening) the more likely any weakness in the ridge will mean she turns.
Bill
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
More insterested in talking about Earl than and didnt see the post but am more disgusted with the total stupidity of people who think only the East coast gets hurricanes and the anger should be at local officials who did not make it clear that any storm south of you should be watched and taken every precaution ... the fault for those communities lie with their mayors, police, emergency management.. news crews... miami stations were live from thursday night and everyone here watches to make sure there are no last minute surprises.. cannot imagine that every city south of Tampa didn't have tv and radio on.
Complain about public awareness or lack of education. Scare they you know what out of these people like some drivers ed class.. this is your house before..this is after..
Hurricanes are not remote controlled interactive video games run by the Hurricane Center.. as Mayfield said in EVERY interview with Miami reporters.. you always have to expect last minute surprises.
Anyway...want to read about Earl not , media is 24/7 still on and there will be more and more heartbreaking stories
But they needed happened because the reason we have less deaths now days is because of awareness..warnings.. knowlege..
Unlike 1926 and Galveston.
Imagine everyone from Mexico to Miami will keep their eyes on Earl. But hopefully they will keep watching in 2007 and 2009 and etc..
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
The stronger Danielle becomes at this point the fishier she becomes.
I'd worry about Earl.
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
|
|
I'm already worried about Earl. 
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Thanks to Lou and Mike C for the photos on this and the last thread. Earl appears to be the next tropical event for someone in the US or Latin America. Funny thing is, 18WNONAME has a very similar track (though more sloped WNW than N followed by W curve) as Rananim which landfell a couple days prior to and Bonnie. 18W doesn't appear to be headed toward Super Typhoon status but it is certainly heading south of Shanghai. There are also two other invests up for the WPAC including a on 94W.
Things will be interesting this week. I'll be out of pocket on Monday and Tuesday because I have to go to Lake Charles then Lafayette. We'll be hitting it hard in Lafayette at several of the better drinking establishments and most likely some of the better eating ones too. People talk about the food in New Orleans, and yeah, our stuff is good. But it's better in Lafayette. They are the original [tm]. I gotta go on some recon missions so I figured early in the week was better than later just in case there's any activity worth watching (and a shot at a day off next week). I don't know what Earl's going to do. It's way too early to call. Bastardi gave a west Gulf headsup earlier in the week. Still working on a couple of bloody marys the day after. I didn't have pickled okra (and wasn't using Tabasco), but the beans are spiced (even if they're a product of New Zealand). Heh. It still tastes good.
SOI's gone DEEP negative. A burst of westerlies should be making its way across the Pacific in due time and may heat up the water a bit more in the Central Pacific. That's a headsup for the Hawaiian Islands.
NAO is as deep as it's been in months and may have signaled this development phase (despite the lack of much though I haven't researched it in the last week or so). NAO is forecast (as of Friday) back to neutral for tomorrow. Then there are differences in the model runs. We'll have to see. But if the NAO is driving or telegraphing multiple developments over it's next two tank phases, it might be something to look at every now and then.
NAO Values
NAO Ensemble Forecasts
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
