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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4248
Loc: Orlando, FL
Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances
      #21863 - Tue Aug 31 2004 09:25 AM

5PM Update
Hurricane Warnings are up for the Southeastern Bahama islands.

Frances models trended to the right earlier today but went back left later on. And so did the National Hurricane Center's forecast track. The current official track takes it onshore near the space coast midday Saturday. Models still may vary, and I still think we'll have a better idea by tomorrow night. But that's how things stand as of now.

A full update will come later this evening.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Gaston has reformed as it moved off the Virginia and the Delmarva peninsula last night, overland it dumped flooding rains over portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. It's not expected to affect land again.

Hermine has become extratropical after touching the coast of Massachusetts. There is also a tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic that may spawn Tropical Depression 9 later in the week.



Everyone wants to know about now Category 4 again Frances.

Right now it is passing uncomfortably close to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Radar from San Juan) But it will stay north and only bring moderate winds approaching tropical storm strength to the most extreme northern islands.

But what are the model trends this morning? Back to the right a bit. Will the ridge break down enough for it to recurve to miss Florida or not? Or will it strengthen and push it through into the gulf? The middle ground would put it into Florida along where the Hurricane Center is predicting, but the error at that far out could allow for other scenarios. Not much new today on that front, but the trend to the right again is interesting.

It's still too early to say where it will affect, and how strong it may be when it gets there. If the National Hurricane Center track holds, it isn't good for Florida. But I think it will be adjusted some as the time goes along. We'll know more sometime late Wednesday I believe. Regardless, getting plans together along the coast isn't a bad idea.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time (new as of 3:30PM today)
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: MikeC]
      #21868 - Tue Aug 31 2004 09:46 AM

So from reading this thread, Frances is going either into the GOM or to the Carolinas??????????????????

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #21872 - Tue Aug 31 2004 09:53 AM

Quote:

So from reading this thread, Frances is going either into the GOM or to the Carolinas??????????????????




No those are the extremes, more likely its somewhere in the middle. The key is to see where the trend goes and persistance.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #21873 - Tue Aug 31 2004 09:56 AM

That's about right. Which means that unfortunately it looks like someone will feel the full impact of this storm. Based on the trends of the season to date, I would expect a turn before FL and a direct hit on the SC coast.

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Models [Re: jth]
      #21874 - Tue Aug 31 2004 09:58 AM

When do the new models come out?

Should have added to the previous post that though the seasonal trend would suggest SC, I believe it will hit FL. Possibly even entering near Miami and riding up the state moving into GA.


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tbaje
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: jth]
      #21875 - Tue Aug 31 2004 09:58 AM

my worst fear.... Miami...

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: MikeC]
      #21876 - Tue Aug 31 2004 09:59 AM

Alright, I guess that was a bit gruff, but your feeling seems to be that the track will shift to the right. I don't know about that. The GFS shifted left from 0Z to 6Z. Not a lot, but some, bringing the center dangerously close to the central Florida coast. 12 & 18 Z will be interesting. I have to make some quick decisions based on these runs down here in Palm Bay. Getting a bit antsey

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
GFS Data Question [Re: MikeC]
      #21879 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:01 AM

Has anyone heard that there was problems with the GFS data last night ? Doesnt the UKMET, NOGAPS, and possibly the Canadian modell get fed the same data ? I am not a model expert, but have been heariing there was issues with the data input last night at least for the GFS (and of course the models that initialize off that).

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Models [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21881 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:11 AM

AVN forecasting Frances to take a Floyd path and on Monday has it hitting NC as a strong Cat III; also brings 97L to Ivan by then (this scenario brings minimal hurricane winds to my area on Sunday)

CMC forecasts Cat IV landfall at West Palm Beach

GFDL forecasts a Floyd turn, bringing 50-60 mhp winds to my area on Saturday, and Landfalling Sunday in South Carolina at 110-115 mph

JMA forecasts Cat IV landfall for Miami on Sunday
still forecasts something to break off to the east of Frances and form

UKMET forecasts direct hit on Cape Canaveral as Cat IV on Saturday (the last time that happened was 1926)

of these, 2 turn it north, 2 take it into south Florida, and one takes it over me

as Ive said with other storms, the AVN and GFDL seem to be the most accurate, so I am going to have to keep my turn to the north forecast


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21882 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:16 AM

I haven't heard that, and frankly if there were init problems, they likely would have been mentioned in the 5am discussion, or in this or this discussion from NCEP/HPC.

Very good quote here which answers some questions from eariler....

"THE BIG QUESTION MARK OF THE PD IS THE TRACK OF HRCN Frances AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CONUS THIS PD. THE MODEL HAVE QUITE AN ARRAY OF
SOLNS. THE 00Z GFS...GFDL...AND NCEP MEAN HAVE SHIFTED THEIR
TRACKS MORE TO THE RIGHT...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS ON DAY
5/SUN TO DAY 6/MON WHILE THE 00Z CAN GLOB AND NOGAPS ALONG WITH
THE 30/12Z ECMWF TAKE THE SYS NWWD ONCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SERN FL
AROUND DAY 4/SAT. THE UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT
WITH ITS TRACK...BUT IT STILL TAKES Frances INTO FL AROUND MLB ON
DAY 4/SAT...WHICH IS THE CLOSEST OP MODEL TO THE NHC TRACK.

WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO
FL...IT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THE ADDITION OF 46 DROPSONDES TO THE
00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP MODELS MAY BE MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK. OF NOTE HERE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS BOTH TONIGHT AND
LAST NIGHT MADE A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS
AND TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUN TOMORROW NITE. ALSO...IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO CAT 3 OR HIER HCNS
TO HIT THE E COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND SAVANNAH IN APPROX THE
PAST 100 YRS. THE MEDR PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
EXTRAPOLATE IT THRU DAY 7"

Notice the forecaster says that the NCEP models got the dropsonde data and the other (non-US) models didn't.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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tbaje
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: Rabbit]
      #21883 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:16 AM

Quote:

AVN forecasting Frances to take a Floyd path and on Monday has it hitting NC as a strong Cat III; also brings 97L to Ivan by then (this scenario brings minimal hurricane winds to my area on Sunday)

that plus the Herbert Box factor..... brace miami, brace
CMC forecasts Cat IV landfall at West Palm Beach

GFDL forecasts a Floyd turn, bringing 50-60 mhp winds to my area on Saturday, and Landfalling Sunday in South Carolina at 110-115 mph

JMA forecasts Cat IV landfall for Miami on Sunday
still forecasts something to break off to the east of Frances and form

UKMET forecasts direct hit on Cape Canaveral as Cat IV on Saturday (the last time that happened was 1926)

of these, 2 turn it north, 2 take it into south Florida, and one takes it over me

as Ive said with other storms, the AVN and GFDL seem to be the most accurate, so I am going to have to keep my turn to the north forecast




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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: wxman007]
      #21884 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:20 AM

so the model with the biggest turn is the one with the latest data?

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: MikeC]
      #21886 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:24 AM

It seems to me that for time being extrapolation points will give you a better run than the models at least in the short term(12>18hrs).She seems to be on a basic W movement just a few degrees N not much.
as of 13:45 @20.1N and 64.0W still S of models see how the ULL out front of Frances impacts her movement.

Edited by javlin (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:34 AM)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Rabbit]
      #21887 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:25 AM

Thanks Jason, its just some meteorolgists in SE Florida are saying their may have been issues. It will be interesting to see if those models trend to the left again in the 12Z and 18Z runs., like they did yesterday.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21889 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:29 AM

Quote:

Thanks Jason, its just some meteorolgists in SE Florida are saying their may have been issues. It will be interesting to see if those models trend to the left again in the 12Z and 18Z runs., like they did yesterday.




ULL discussion for Miami NWS. Its moving to the west folks.

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE
FL COAST SW THROUGH EAST CNTRL FL...ACROSS LAKE OKEE AND INTO THE SW
GULF...ALBEIT SUBTLE...WITH 88D AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG IT OFF THE NE FL AND SW FL COASTS. AT THE
UPR LVLS...MOST PROMINENT FEATURE IS UPR LVL LOW ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS WHICH CONTINUE TO TRACKS WEST. 12Z SNDG PWAT...WHICH IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY GPSMET RETRIEVALS IS RUNNING AROUND 1.9 TO 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING. THIS IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LAYER WEST OF THE UPR LOW ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING. WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SE AROUND 5
KNOTS PER 12Z SNDG...AND UPR LVL FEATURE TRACKING WEST...LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR FOR TODAY
AND JUST INLAND OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST. THIS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN THE FCST SO PLAN NO CHANGES. 12Z CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CAME UP WITH A CAPE OF 4180..MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON INLAND HIGHS OF
AROUND 92...LI OF -8...AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF AROUND 24. SO TODAY
STORMS HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO BEING STRONGER
THAN USUAL WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL...PARTICULARLY INLAND.


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melissa
Unregistered




Re: GFS Data Question [Re: jlauderdal]
      #21890 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:31 AM

What does that all mean?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
JBs call [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21891 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:34 AM

JB is still sticking to his guns for a NC hit...that's great news for Floridians if it pans out. Last week, before this was a TD even, I said "I smell Hattaras." I just get a feeling for these long-tracking CV storms.

Let's see what NHC says at 11:00 (may even be out already). More later.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1431
Loc: Florida
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: wxman007]
      #21892 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:36 AM

That's interesting, Jason. Why would only one model get the data input and not the others? It would seem the other way around. Of course, I don't work for NHC so I don't know how that works. Obviously.

So, if all the other models get this data and they all begin turning it to the right, I guess we could see a light at the end of the Florida tunnel. OR if the models get the data and still keep it on its current track, we can keep on preparing ourselves for a intense storm. Which we should be doing anyway.

One more question: will that stationary front in the SE have anything to do with Frances' path? Just curious.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: melissa]
      #21893 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:37 AM

Quote:

What does that all mean?




There has ben some thought that the ULL if it persists it could drive the storm more to the N but if it moves out that feature will have little to no effect on the track. Bottom line is florida is going to need a weakness between the two highs to avoid landfall and that looks unlikely to me. west palm to jacksonville until further notice


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Models [Re: Rabbit]
      #21894 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 AM

To help those of us (oků me) who have a hard time visualizing the forecast path, I have created the following image based on HPC 7 day loop: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Assumptions
1) Frances remains current size/strength
2) Wind envelope(s) based on NHC Advisory 26A

I can re-create these images any time for use here and remain open to suggestions and guidance.



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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: JBs call [Re: LI Phil]
      #21895 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:43 AM

I said that this one would hit the outer banks area too, my techinque is called persitence and climatololgy one of these days your bound to be right. I use stuff like that for long range tracking hurricanes because there is no way that you can predict how things are going to shape out in the upper air features 10-11 days in advance. Raining pretty hard here had a wind gust up to 35 mph, big whoop!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Rabbit]
      #21896 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:45 AM

Quote:

so the model with the biggest turn is the one with the latest data?




Not exactly...the 00Z run of the GFS, with the dropsondes, was further west....the 00Z Eta, with the dropsondes, was much further s and west. The 06Z GFS (with the newsst data) is further west and south than the 00Z run. The 06Z Eta (again, with the newest data) trended back north a bit, but is still a far left track. This mornings Eta (which is only in to 54hrs as I write this, and contains last nights sondes,which are now 12 hrs old) is a little more north and east, but not nearly as much as the GFS. No 12Z GFS to look at yet.

So we are seeing pretty good swings in model solutions...making any forecast a low-confidence one at this point.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
11am track [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #21897 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:46 AM

So based on this track from the 11am Advisory they are looking for it to skim up the east coast of FL now and remain offshore, until it gets to the FL/GA border and then make landfall perhaps.

Nice graphic there Skeetobite, how did you create it?


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anony
Unregistered




Re: Track shift [Re: wxman007]
      #21898 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:47 AM

Now goes to JAX area at 1100. Stay tuned, it'll change again!

sc


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: wxman007]
      #21899 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:47 AM

The lastest 11 AM is in the track has been nudged a little to the right and north..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 975
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: JBs call [Re: LI Phil]
      #21900 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 AM

JB is obviously picking up on the data we received that the NCEP may have information others don't...any way I think we all agreed that Wednesday's models will be the tale...I am impressed so far this year with the NHC's 72 hour fixes, unlike a couple of years ago when anything else did happen.

In response to DEE of Bradenton...IF the NHC 5 day were to hold, and that is what this discussion is all about, then in Bradenton/ Parrish we should get only the W and SW quardrant and then " only " tropical force winds I would suspect.
If it did a Donna trac and similar intensity...again NW abd W side, but probably hurricane CATI to II force for about 30-60 minutes., depending on where it would enter the coast.

--------------------
doug


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luki
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
Re: Models [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #21901 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 AM

ive seen some models suggest a JAX landfall allthough in the past 24 hrs they change but still some are suggesting it.Being in JAX Im extremely concerned,we havent had a hit here since dora in 64 and ever since floyd and now Charley our forcasters here anyway are real reluctant to say anyting,i have a bad feeling abut this one,seems to me with every update the cone comes a little more N,my fear is everyone in this general area will not be concerned and we could very well see a Charley play out here

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21902 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 AM

Yes, it has...although I haven't read the disco yet, that means that they are banking on the GFS/GFDL combo...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NHC 5 day [Re: luki]
      #21903 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:50 AM

Track more northerly...looks like FL/SC border:

5 Day Track

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: jlauderdal]
      #21904 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:51 AM

yep, some are talking bout floyd and this one, there are big diffrences, this one is much farther sourh, going west, and there is no trof, as there was with floyd. looks to be getting even stronger. 145+ today.

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: wxman007]
      #21905 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:52 AM

Morning Jason,
Good to see you on again.

Please feel free to give your input.
This looks bad for the central part of the state

History would predict a N. turn but also many historic storms have crossed the state. In the last 50 years, most have curved up to the NC area however.


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tbaje
Unregistered




Re: GFS Data Question [Re: meto]
      #21907 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:53 AM

based on the models what is turning it north a weakening in the High? pardon my ignorance.

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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: NHC 5 day [Re: LI Phil]
      #21908 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:55 AM

Florida - Georgia right?

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: meto]
      #21909 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:57 AM

There is a trough actually in the northeast, that's suppose to work it's magic on Frances and pull it up north, but there could be some change to that as the approaching high will weaken it to some degree.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Models [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #21910 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:57 AM

It would be cool if you could update this based on the 11AM NHC forecast track.

Thanks!

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Shawn
Unregistered




Re: GFS Data Question [Re: tbaje]
      #21911 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:59 AM

South Florida has a pretty good chance of missing this. This thing is going to Georgia or South Carolina.

Tomorrow will tell the tale, though. If this thing doesn't start going "officially" WNW by tomorrow night, Florida is going to be back on the hotseat. But, if it is, most of Florida will be pretty safe.


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: GFS Data Question [Re: tbaje]
      #21912 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:59 AM

Glad to see this site is still going strong! Storm2k is jammed up. Not many crazy people hyping everything up here as well. Thanks everyone.

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luki
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
Re: NHC 5 day [Re: Redbird]
      #21913 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:59 AM

thats what im seeing,ive had a gut feeling about this,and thats all it is im not an expert by any means,even though its obvious where they are now putting it cant help but have that voice in the back of my head saying its not gonna hit us,i do know thats a good way of thinking,we are so overdue to be hit up here

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caneman
Unregistered




Re: NHC 5 day [Re: Redbird]
      #21914 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:00 AM

Ths is actually stil not a good scenarion because it would run the coast from Cape Canaveral to JAX at around 30 miles East of the shoreline. Tremendous flooding, storm sure and wind damage if ths pans out

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Redbird
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Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Shawn]
      #21915 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:00 AM

Shawn what are you basing this on?

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LI Phil
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Wind Swath Graphic [Re: Shawn]
      #21916 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:01 AM

This is actually pretty cool. It takes all of NHC wind swath graphics and loops them (from Hurricanetrack.com - great little site BTW).

Wind Swath Graphic Loop

--------------------
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Colleen A.
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Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Keith234]
      #21917 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:01 AM

What a nightmare for the folks at the NHC. I wouldn't want to be a forecaster along ANY part of land that has WATER next to it. I sure hope they pay them well.

If I were to think like I always think, the NHC discussion this morning may say something like: "will wait and see what the next set of model runs do before changing the official track" or something like that.

Or not.

--------------------
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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: GFS Data Question [Re: tbaje]
      #21918 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:01 AM

Gees meto, lol your soo funny. Over last 2 years on here I see you always post storms are going to your house and making it a cat 5. Believe me if you ever get 1 more then a cat 1 you wont want 1 again. Does make me laugh though.
With Frances, yes they are going as of 11am post the current GFDL and GFS runs but even those models will change. Key is now curent movement over the next 12 hours, If a wnw path dont start later today then the models might move ever so closer to the w. Then again we all still dont know the strength or pos extention of the ridge to its north 2-3 days out and timing of the next trough or strength. I dont think the next trough right now will get to the central gulf until Sat so S florida still needs to keep a eye on this.

scottsvb


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21919 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:02 AM

Looks like the track will continue to move to the right. Here you go Carolinas!! At least it shouldn't be as strong when it gets there. If it continues to the right we may get out of the windfield here in east central Florida. Looks like JB may have this one nailed. Whew!!

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Jamiewx
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Herberts Box? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21920 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:04 AM

Looks like the Herberts box rule will not apply with this storm. One thing i did notice about the graphic yesterday was that two other historic storm tracks were shown going through the box, but Frances entered it with a much higher latitude, i think this might have made a difference.

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LI Phil
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JB [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #21921 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:06 AM

>>> Looks like JB may have this one nailed. Whew!!

First of all. No one knows for sure where this one is going, so that "Whew!!" is way too premature.

Second of all, there are a good number of posters on this board who do not live in Florida, so if you guys hopefully avoid a direct hit, someone north is going to take it.

This is a very dangerous storm and everyone needs to keep up their guard!!!

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Shawn W.
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Re: NHC 5 day [Re: caneman]
      #21922 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:07 AM

40% Data + 15% Trends + 45% Gut Feeling = Projected Path for Hurricane Frances

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HCW
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Re: Herberts Box? [Re: Jamiewx]
      #21923 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:10 AM

What type of role will the ULL in the Bahamsa play with this storm ?

Would it surpise any of you to see the track flip flop again back to the west ?

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tbaje
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Re: NHC 5 day [Re: Shawn W.]
      #21924 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:11 AM

I live in Miami... as of the 11 am advisory the blasted thing still going due west.. waiting for that big turn .. hope it makes it for our sake... although i think the carolinas have seen their share.

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rjp
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: MikeC]
      #21925 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:12 AM

Everyone here in Charleston is trying to get their roofs fixed and things cleaned up now that Gaston has passed and Frances possibly threatening. Things won't be pretty if this storm heads in anywhere close and/or to the south of here.

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Shawn W.
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: rjp]
      #21926 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:13 AM

I'm in Charleston too, RJP. Yes, we have received a foot of rain from Gaston by taking a direct hit, the roots of trees are so saturated that they were blowing over in 40 mph gusts.

It would absolutely be devestating.


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Rabbit
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: Shawn W.]
      #21927 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:16 AM

I have noticed a signifigant shift offshore and to the north with Frances, which is no longer forecast to come ashore in Florida. I assume that this means that it is increasingly likely that the system WILL turn north like Floyd
Remember that the five day forecasts are mirroring Floyd's three day tracks


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Cane Watcher
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Re: JB [Re: LI Phil]
      #21928 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:17 AM

I agree with Phil. Lets wait until Wed. before we have a party in Fl. As quickly as the track shifted north, it can shift back south and put So. / Cent. Fl under the gun again.

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Ricreig
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Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21929 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:18 AM

Quote:

What a nightmare for the folks at the NHC. I wouldn't want to be a forecaster along ANY part of land that has WATER next to it. I sure hope they pay them well.

If I were to think like I always think, the NHC discussion this morning may say something like: "will wait and see what the next set of model runs do before changing the official track" or something like that.

Or not.


Yes Colleen, I think they are seeing NOTHING to change their minds about what is likely so until they do, and with 3-4 days left before landfall is likely, they are waiting for 'better signals'.

--------------------
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Rabbit
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Re: JB [Re: Cane Watcher]
      #21931 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:21 AM

there has been a trend over the last day for the track to shift north with each advisory

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SoonerShawn
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Reminder!!! [Re: Shawn W.]
      #21932 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:23 AM

I hate to remind all of ya'll in Florida of Andrew but I think now would be a perfect time to do so. If you remember Andrew was predicted to stay completely away from Florida but at the last minute he made a hard left and barreled right at ya'll. My point is that, like some have already stated, just because the models are saying a more northerly track doesn't mean it is etched in stone. Not only that, these models are not agreeing with each other too well right now so that is a BIG problem. Even if Frances does start to take a more WNW or even NW track later, it doesn't mean it will continue it. Bottom line, PLEASE STAY ALERT!!! ALL OF YOU!!!!


ShawnS


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AgentB
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Re: JB [Re: Cane Watcher]
      #21933 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:25 AM

Remember, like Phil said, one shift to the left or right does not make it a "trend". Of course the closer the storm gets to landfall the more validity those shifts have, but 4-5 days out is still a long time. I did notice the leading edges of swell from Frances showing up on the outer Canaveral buoy this morning. As of 11am it was reading 3.0ft@12.9 seconds. This storm has continued to move a little faster than I thought it would, as I didn't see any swell showing up until sometime Wednesday. Also, this morning was the first I had heard any of the local weather guys in central Florida mention the slowing of Frances and a turn to the north, bringing it parallel to the coast, but not making a direct hit. Like I said before it's still way too early to tell that for sure, but was interesting to hear someone other than members on this board mention it. And Phil I have some good friends out on LI so I too hope they're safe.

--------------------
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tbaje
Unregistered




Re: Reminder!!! [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #21936 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:27 AM

Quote:

I hate to remind all of ya'll in Florida of Andrew but I think now would be a perfect time to do so. If you remember Andrew was predicted to stay completely away from Florida but at the last minute he made a hard left and barreled right at ya'll. My point is that, like some have already stated, just because the models are saying a more northerly track doesn't mean it is etched in stone. Not only that, these models are not agreeing with each other too well right now so that is a BIG problem. Even if Frances does start to take a more WNW or even NW track later, it doesn't mean it will continue it. Bottom line, PLEASE STAY ALERT!!! ALL OF YOU!!!!


ShawnS






THIS IS THE MOST INTELLIGENT THING SAID ON THIS BOARD FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS!


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: GFS Data Question [Re: Ricreig]
      #21937 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:28 AM

Went to the store here in Tampa and everything is going as normal. I talked to the manager at HD and he said there is no high demand for items like there was with charely and business as usual. Went to grocery store and was normal.
People in general in florida are just watching to see if this really has a chance of coming. We all know the Floyd type storms that come close and brush the Bahamas then head up and threaten and even just hitting the outerbanks and out to sea scaring NE. Andrew was diff, there was no doubt it was coming but where was the issue and how strong. Overall most wont hit the stores till Thurs on east coast and late in the day w coast or Friday if track bends back to the left. Right now we just dont know for sure what path it will take. There is no strong trough to affect her till later this weekend and the reason it will start going wnw is the ridge strength and position. Im sticking with around 21N and 70W tomorrow afternoon and near WPB Friday evening. Models will change and the NHC path will adjust with each 6hr run. There is no worries yet on Frances unless you live in the Bahamas and florida if any until later weds. We all say 12Z run on Thurs will nail down landfall within 100miles instead of the current 700.


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Rasvar
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Re: Reminder!!! [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #21938 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:28 AM

It is now time to sit and wait to see if the gradual turns begins to materialize within the next 24 hours. When this turn begins could have a HUGE bearing on where landfall will occur due the proximity of the path. South Florida is now just barely within the three day cone of error. All of Florida , ga and SC are in the five day cone of error. I would suggest that foks in South Florida not let their guard down just yet.

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wxman007
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Re: JB [Re: Rabbit]
      #21939 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:28 AM

No, there hasn't.

There was a shift SOUTH yesterday afternoon at the 5pm, then an extension of the previous at 11pm, followed by what can be argued as a shift n at 5, and now a real shift N at 11A...but to say that over the last day there is a northward trend with each advisory is plain wrong.

Rabbit, you may end up being right about the eventual track...but don't make stuff up to try and prove it!

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 AM)


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ticka1
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Re: JB [Re: AgentB]
      #21940 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:30 AM

I agree with who posted that Wednesday or Thursday will be the day that Frances direction will bein position with the models. This is just my opinion. Now approaching the area of PR. I think everyone from Maine to Mexico need to stay alert of this hurricane.

--------------------
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Rabbit
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Re: JB [Re: ticka1]
      #21941 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:36 AM

Frances track

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meto
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Re: GFS Data Question [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21942 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:38 AM

your funny, im pointing out diffrences and this a strong cat. 4

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rickonboat
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eye wall [Re: ticka1]
      #21943 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:39 AM

The eye is starting to take a nice round shape, and we will see a borderline cat 5 soon...

direction is Miami, then onto Mobile...

there is no trend north yet. If and when the hurricane slows down a little, then and only then will a definite shift in the direction occur.

Silly to even think about the models. they are all different, and NO ONE knows what this will do..

I will go with my gut feel...

Miami, and a cat 4-5 at landfall, then into the gulf for more hankey pankey....

RICK! We have a serious situation here. It's not funny anymore! Please don't make me start editing...

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:41 AM)


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Rabbit
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Re: eye wall [Re: rickonboat]
      #21944 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:41 AM

just remember Floyd didnt turn until early morning on the 14th of Sep 1999

Frances is still 4 days out before it nears Florida


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Re: Models [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #21945 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:43 AM

Quote:

It would be cool if you could update this based on the 11AM NHC forecast track.

Thanks!




Done!



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AgentB
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Re: JB [Re: ticka1]
      #21946 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:44 AM

Forgot to post this with my reply. A good site for checking out troughs, ridges, etc.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Colleen A.
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: Rabbit]
      #21947 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:45 AM

Rabbit...two things:

(1) Florida is NOT out of the woods at all. If you look at the "projected path" Florida is most certainly under the gun whether you go to the left or the right of the cone. The NHC is not saying anything close to what you're stating.

2) Your statement that the path has been consistently shifting to the north with each run is incorrect. Yesterday it shifted north in the morning, at 5pm it was back south again, then it was about the same at 11pm. At 5:00am this morning it was still to the left, and at 11am today it shifted right. There's no trend to the north in any of those tracks. The only ABSOLUTE thing you can say is that the path has had Florida under the gun since we started getting closer to the US.

There's no evidence yet of a turn to N, or even the WNW. I just watched News Channel 8 and the met wasn't all that excited about the new track, which tells me no one really has a lot of confidence in the models---which are all over the place with this one-- at this point in time. I'd like to say he's really bored by this hurricane but I don't think that's the reason he's not putting a lot of emphasis on it.

When you write stuff, try to be accurate. People new to this board may look at just one or two posts and think that they are either going to get whacked or they're in the clear. A good rule of thumb when saying "we're in the clear" is this:

UNTIL IT PASSES YOUR LAT/LON POSITION, YOU ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: JB [Re: Rabbit]
      #21948 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:46 AM

ok GFS slowly starting to come in. Will analize the plots for this over next 30 min. Funny how to start already, just 12hours out or say really 8hours this has Frances at 21n almost.
I think its about .5 above from where it should be.


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Tom-Ormond Bch
Unregistered




Re: JB [Re: wxman007]
      #21949 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:46 AM

Sigh, I reluctantly agree Jason, but sure want to be hopeful about a Floyd-like "miss". We are just so stressed out here from Charley aftermath. That said, I guess I will go back to boarding up. I am directly on Intercoastal Waterway and can see condos on beach from my front yard. So we will be in Evac zone if needed-hence my hurry to finish. Got the east side done. Working on north now.
My Lowe's was totally sold out of many items last night and there was a long line for 15 generators on a truck. People here are definitely in prep mode. I wanted Plylox clips but they were long gone.
Maybe I will lose some weight out of all this!
Tom- Ormond Beach/Volusia County


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StormLover
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Re: eye wall [Re: rickonboat]
      #21950 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:49 AM

I totally agree. I see no northward trend at all looking at any radar loops. My gut tells me that Frances will hit between central and south Florida as a strong Category 4. I think the ridge of high pressure currently over the Atantic will keep it well to the south of Georgia or the Carolinas.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Re: eye wall [Re: rickonboat]
      #21951 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:50 AM

while i am not going to say where landfall will be it is moving due west this morning. if it doesn't start the northern turn soon models or not it is gonna come toward fla. even if landfall is in the s/c n/c area if it gets close enough to the coast of fla. before the north turn its effects will be felt. so all that think fla is outta of the woods on this one, don't bet the farm yet.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: JB [Re: Rabbit]
      #21952 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:50 AM

Re: Frances' track: stop looking at the symbol and start looking at the cone. Now you tell me what that tells you.

--------------------
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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: flight paths [Re: Rabbit]
      #21953 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:50 AM

here is where most of the gps drops were taking yesterday, and i guess the models are picking up on weaking ridge

noaa plane is staying in Barbados, due to St. Croix too close to storm


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: JB [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21954 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:52 AM

GFS 24 hrs out now or say 20 hours it has Frances near 22N and 70W . Hmm 2 deg north in 20 hours? This wnw track better start in next 6 hours or less.This comes out to about .5 per 6 hours now on the first 24 hour run.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: Models [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #21955 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:54 AM

Thanks Skeetobite:

This should tell all of us that even if the storm was to follow this path we will need to implement Plan B and board up ; many communities will feel hurricane and trpoical storm winds all over the Florida east coast.

But this is only a point based on a calculation. Tomorrow evening we will know where the storm is truly going because of the narrowed dreaded cone of fear.. .

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Rabbit
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21956 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:54 AM

I am not basing my forecast entirely on the NHC model, and the model shift is not necessarily based solely on the official forecast, but the fact that most of the models have been shifting east slightly with each run

I have been tracking since Andrew, and am well aware that you are still in the threat area if it is not north of you, but I am making forecasts that I feel confident in, and I am still confident that it will turn north before getting here. Everyone needs to remember that these are the 5-day forecasts we are seeing, and that the NHC admits that there are extremely large errors involved. Also, as for it not turning north yet, remember Bonnie and Isabel--they both headed due west towards Florida, and turned north rather quickly

My guess is 30-60 miles offshore, moving in a NW to NNW direction by Saturday

I am well aware that the track could shift to the west again, but it could also shift further east.

As for preparedness, I have an emergency hurricane kit that is always stocked with the supplies needed. The only preparing at the moment is to have the supplies that are good to have at the beginning of the season.


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Lisa NC
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Re: eye wall [Re: rickonboat]
      #21957 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:54 AM

Frances might be starting her northward turn. On the sat loops she appears to be moving just north of west in the last half of the loop. This may just be stair stepping, but it might be a new trend

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

Edited by Lisa NC (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:55 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: Rabbit]
      #21958 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:57 AM

Frances forecast track with wind

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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: eye wall [Re: Lisa NC]
      #21959 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:58 AM

Quote:

Frances might be starting her northward turn. On the sat loops she appears to be moving just north of west in the last half of the loop. This may just be stair stepping, but it might be a new trend


Looks like stair stepping to me .



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StormHound
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Re: GFS Data Question [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21960 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:59 AM

Quote:

Went to the store here in Tampa and everything is going as normal. I talked to the manager at HD and he said there is no high demand for items like there was with charely and business as usual. Went to grocery store and was normal.
People in general in florida are just watching to see if this really has a chance of coming. We all know the Floyd type storms that come close and brush the Bahamas then head up and threaten and even just hitting the outerbanks and out to sea scaring NE. Andrew was diff, there was no doubt it was coming but where was the issue and how strong. Overall most wont hit the stores till Thurs on east coast and late in the day w coast or Friday if track bends back to the left. Right now we just dont know for sure what path it will take. There is no strong trough to affect her till later this weekend and the reason it will start going wnw is the ridge strength and position. Im sticking with around 21N and 70W tomorrow afternoon and near WPB Friday evening. Models will change and the NHC path will adjust with each 6hr run. There is no worries yet on Frances unless you live in the Bahamas and florida if any until later weds. We all say 12Z run on Thurs will nail down landfall within 100miles instead of the current 700.




I must disagree with you, Scott. People in Central and Eastern Florida are taking this storm VERY seriously. I was out last night (Orlando), and there were long lines everywhere. After Charley, everyone here is preparing early. Those that work on the east coast say there is even more preparation going on over there. I think mainly due to the fresh memories of Charly, Florida is taking a more proactive approach than I've seen in my 30+ years here.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: eye wall [Re: Lisa NC]
      #21961 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:01 PM

Lisa there will be wobbles to the wnw but a new path will show on a 3 hour trend. By 2-3pm (eastern) we will see if it still is. Generally its been going just N or due west near 275-280dg since Sunday.
48hour GFS has it running up the bahamas NW near 23.5-73.5. This could happen but I think its still just alittle NE by 50-100 miles.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances [Re: Rabbit]
      #21962 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:02 PM

Well, for all of our sakes, I truly hope your forecast comes to fruition. I really do.

But you have to be consistent with what you're saying: before you said that with each track it has been moving consistently north, and as Jason pointed out, that is simply not the case. I remember Isabel and Bonnie and Floyd, but the NHC had started saying LONG BEFORE that Floyd WOULD make that turn, we just didn't believe them until it actually did. I don't see a single mention of a definite turn to the the WNW in any of their discussions lately. If anything, they're more than likely pulling their hair out with these models runs differing every six hours.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb1
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Re: eye wall [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21963 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:03 PM

Thats nice storm if they are doing it there. Talked to buddie and brother in s florida, they are watching but stores they say are also normal.

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SoonerShawn
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Stair Stepping [Re: StormHound]
      #21964 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:03 PM

I'm not so sure that it is stair stepping. You could be right, but it could be just the changing of the eyewall structure. I know she has been doing that quite a bit.


ShawnS


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LI Phil
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Rabbit Season & Wishcasting [Re: StormHound]
      #21965 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:05 PM

Rabbit seems to be taking it on the chin...we'll see how everything plays out.

It seems like some folks (names withheld to protect the guilty) who live in the Gulf region seem to want this storm to come their way, despite what is becoming more and more evident. The northward turn. That's fine, but this is NOT a gulf storm. Don't wishcast it there. You may have a bunch of mischief of the homebrew type soon enough.

The "dreaded" cone. LOL.

NHC is doing a fantastic job with this storm, as they really have all year (with the exception of underforecasting Charley, but CFHC got it right!). Stay prepared everyone...gonna be a dicey next five days that's for sure.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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jlauderdal
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Re: JB [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21966 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:06 PM

Quote:

GFS 24 hrs out now or say 20 hours it has Frances near 22N and 70W . Hmm 2 deg north in 20 hours? This wnw track better start in next 6 hours or less.This comes out to about .5 per 6 hours now on the first 24 hour run.




take a look at wxrisk.com. DT thinks the GFS is full of you know what.


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meto
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Re: eye wall [Re: Lisa NC]
      #21967 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:07 PM

its moving west.

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Wingman51
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Re: GFS Data Question [Re: StormHound]
      #21969 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:08 PM

I'm new to this board - but I know that shopping in the greater Osceola county area is daunting to say the least - - Wally world is already out of gallon water, canned Propane and dry food stuffs. Once burned and twice shy - people are taking this very seriously.

I do have one simple question - people are talking about a weakening of the tropical H pressure ridge off the carolina coast - where is this data coming from - - I look and look but I do not see??


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Frank P
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On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: mikeG]
      #21970 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:08 PM

Looking at the PR radar loop, Frances is not going due west but in a general north of due west motion... my best guess is 280 degrees, give or take a couple... this minor northerly component is very evident on the radar loop and IR loop and is basically on track with the projections for now at this present location... it SHOULD be taking a more WNW track later this evening or early tomorrow morning and something that should be monitored closely to see if this comes to fruition and IF the models have any real clue as to what is going to happen down the road... I do feel the track will shift more south within the next day or two, not sure how much though.... going to be a tough call regardless....

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jlauderdal
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Re: eye wall [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21971 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:11 PM

Quote:

Lisa there will be wobbles to the wnw but a new path will show on a 3 hour trend. By 2-3pm (eastern) we will see if it still is. Generally its been going just N or due west near 275-280dg since Sunday.
48hour GFS has it running up the bahamas NW near 23.5-73.5. This could happen but I think its still just alittle NE by 50-100 miles.




absolutely..there is no feature to turn it that quickly per the GFS and we are at a point where 50-100 miles makes all the difference in the world on effects for the EC of Florida and beyond. take a look at the euro people...it has shown great consistency and is on track..dont know bout its gulf solution but i sure think its south bias is worht looking at. rememebr also GFDL uses some GFS data sowhen when GFS flips GFDL usually will too..nhc is really pinning their hopes on these two models. NHC is a very difficult position here as sofla is right on the edge of getting significant weahter based on THEIR track.


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doug
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Re: JB [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21973 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:13 PM

Scott: that is really nothing new...the GFDL 6Z has it at 21.9/70.5 and the wnw moves start almost immediately...from a ratio of 1/7 to 1/3...
Of course IF that does not occur, everything shifs left again...hence the NHC is catious here.

HOWEVER the GFDL was very accurate about 60-72 hrs out on Charley hence they NHC's trend to look closely at the GFS/GFDL for guidance.

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb1
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: Frank P]
      #21974 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:14 PM

Nice post Frank and your right.
GFS 72hr out has her near 25N and 75W. I also want to note that the 200mb trough is further back over the western gulf and southern mexico which would argue for more of a ridge to its ENE. Hmm


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Colleen A.
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Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting [Re: LI Phil]
      #21975 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:20 PM

I think everyone in Florida is a little on edge therefore we (I) tend to point out what have been the facts. There hasn't been a turn yet (although hopefully it is beginning) therefore, I will hold steadfastedly to what I can see and what I read as facts. I no longer am in the business of "wishcasting" since Charley. I'm like Fox, they report, you decide. Rabbits are well known prey of foxes.

As for the Mobile hit comments, I'd leave them up. Since the person has been saying that, Mobile's been spared a major hit. I think we should give a round of applause.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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mikeG
Unregistered




recon [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21976 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:21 PM

URNT11 KNHC 311604
97779 16004 30224 71500 73200 15013 68//1 /5764
AF306 0906A Frances OB 06


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21977 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:21 PM

your right doug but first off let me say to all that these models will shift around still with each run. With this GFS run Im stating the positions and looking at the overall picture. The GFDL also made earl a cat 2-3 at 1 time too but we all know that was a error. With Charley it did ok but most models were in somewhat agreement and at the end only 1 or 2 were right with the landfall. I in general go with the GFS and lean towards the NOGAPS.

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rmbjoe1954
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21979 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:22 PM

It must be the Herbert Box Paradox; what the models are now plotting does not conform to the Herbert Box theory that any storm that passes below 20degreees N/ 60 degrees W would invariably affect southern Florida.

It's "Hebert" not Herbert. Pronounced ay-berh

:?:

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 12:26 PM)


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kelcot
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Re: GFS Data Question [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21981 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:24 PM

I'm glad everything is normal in Tampa. I can't say the same for Vero Beach, Sebastian, and Ft. Pierce. I spoke to my family down in Vero today. Pretty much all of the bottled water is gone already. People are stocking up and gearing up there.

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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #21982 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:26 PM

000
URNT11 KWBC 311558
97779 15584 30162 62800 55100 16010 55632 /4584
RMK NOAA3 1106A Frances OB 03 KWBC


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rickonboat
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Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting [Re: Colleen A.]
      #21983 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:27 PM

Rabbit stew in a few days. Frances is still heading mostly west, and the posts have been excellent. We all keep thinking "..in just a few hours more I will know where this is heading..."...yet we all know they are dynamic entities, subject to sudden changes. The Ridge is looking to be further west than forecast, and that is why I am looking for a westerly trend. we will see.

...so again...cat 5 Miami, then Mobile bound...


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #21984 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:28 PM

Thanks for posting this but perhaps a little interpretation concerning this data would be meaningful to the viewers.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #21985 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:29 PM

Not to ruin your wonderful analysis or the suspense of your findings but it looks like the GFS may have nudge left again..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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LI Phil
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Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting [Re: rickonboat]
      #21986 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:31 PM

I'll gladly eat crow with my Hattaras call, because after Hattaras, it's up towards LI & NE. No thank you. I hate to say this, but I've been calling this one for a week, and I see less reason to change. So Rabbit's on board with me. Going to be a ride...all you in Florida don't let your guard down for one minute.

And Rick, it's getting tiresome, OK?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21987 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:31 PM

12Z of the NOGAPS is out and it shows a path thru the bahamas and into WPB (area) and across the state around 310dg near Tampa. This is consistant with the past run.
96hour GFS is 100 miles east of WPB near Freeport BAH and moving NW. ( note also again at the start of this that by 8pm eastern tonight it has Frances near 22N already, if this is already initialized as a early jump before its real movement, the placement of the hurricane might be 50-75 miles more sw of where the plots are) This might be then in agreement with the NOGAPS position 96hrs out just offshore of WPB. 1 more update to come. scottsvb


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Shawn W.
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Re: Rabbit Season & Wishcasting [Re: LI Phil]
      #21988 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:34 PM

I'm calling Georgia / South Carolina border.

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Brad
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Hebert [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #21989 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:34 PM

"what the models are now plotting does not conform to the Herbert Box theory that any storm that passes below 20degreees N/ 60 degrees W would invariably affect southern Florida."

Hebert's theory - or whatever it's called - did NOT say that any storm in the box (which I believe is bordered by 15 & 20 N, and 55 & 60 W) would "invariably" (inevitably?) affect South Florida. Instead, Hebert noted that most intense hurricanes that affect South Florida and come from the east have passed in or near that box. However, the converse is NOT true; in other words, most storms that pass through that box do NOT affect South Florida. Thus, statistically speaking, although a storm going in the area of that box is more likely to affect S. Fla. than one that doesn't go through that box, it does not come close to being a guarantee. -Brad


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Brad
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Clark - FSU Superensemble? [Re: Brad]
      #21990 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:37 PM

Clark or anyone else with the info:

Anybody know what the FSU Superensemble is showing today? Any change from yesterday afternoon's S.Fla. forecast? Thanks.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21991 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:40 PM

GFS 120 showing it just offshore Daytona beach by 20 miles (about) and parreling the coast of florida. For what its worth the CMC has her going up the bahama chain and staying well off the coast of florida, this model (though not out of the question) usually doesnt handle movement of tropcial systems that well as seen in the last many runs. It has been all over the place. Just waiting on the Ukmet run to figure out the whole package, will post later.

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Colleen A.
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Re: recon [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #21992 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:41 PM

Hopefully this will help:

000
URNT12 KNHC 311114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1114Z
B. 19 DEG 56 MIN N
63 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2649 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 105 DEG 138 KT
G. 023 DEG 21 NM
H. 950 MB
I. 11 C/ 3092 M
J. 19 C/ 3088 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A Frances OB 27
MAX FL WIND 138 KT N QUAD 1107Z. SMALL HAIL OUTBOUND SOUTHWEST
EYEWALL.

Here's how to read it:

Bulletin Identifier
A. Date and time of fix
B. Latitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes
Longitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes
C. Minimum height of a standard pressure level, given in meters
D. Estimate of maximum surface wind observed in knots
E. Bearing and range from center of the maximum surface wind
F. Maximum flight level wind near storm center
G. Bearing and range from center of maximum flight level wind
H. Minimum sea level pressure computed from dropsonde or extrapolation
I. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, OUTSIDE the eye
J. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, INSIDE the eye
K. Dewpoint temperature in Celsius / Sea surface temperature in Celsius inside the eye
L. Eye character
M. Eye shape orientation and diameter
N. Fix determined by / fix level
O. Navigation fix accuracy in nm / Meteorological accuracy in nm
P. Remarks Section

That's probably the most productive thing I've done today.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
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Northward motion [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21993 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:41 PM

No wobbles in this satellite image. Still moving west, but there is now a northern component.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
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Re: On PR radar loops... not due west more like 280 degrees [Re: scottsvb1]
      #21995 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:43 PM

WV loop

note the general WNW movement and the upper low to the west


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Hebert [Re: Brad]
      #21996 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:44 PM

With that said, Frances will inevitably impact the weather for the entire state one way or the other.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: Clark - FSU Superensemble? [Re: Brad]
      #21997 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:44 PM

AAAKKK! GFS has Her sitting over Grand Bahama island for like 18 hours, then moves her WNW towards Melbourne but leaves her right on the coastline then moves her slowwwwwly up the coast (on the coast) Finally coming in at JAX. I recant my previous statement and apologize. This is not justification for a right shift of the track. Slightly left again I think if NHC uses the GFS. NEXT RUN PLEASE!

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Colleen A.
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Re: Northward motion [Re: LI Phil]
      #21998 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:46 PM

What's weird is that when you pull up the satellite image for the Western Atlantic and Caribbean, it already shows Frances OUT of the 20 box. So, is the Goes not updated or what?

No arguing over the northward movement, just check out the other satellite look and it still looks like it's stairstepping.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Rabbit
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22000 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:48 PM

It probably is--I've heard on TWC numerous times that hurricanes dont generally move in straight lines, they wobble

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Colleen A.
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Re: Clark - FSU Superensemble? [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #22002 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:51 PM

So what you're saying is that the latest model runs are no good? Please 'splain, my friend.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Rasvar
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Rabbit]
      #22004 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:52 PM

Running a long range radar loop from San Juan over a few hours shows a general westerly movement with a tinge to the north. Not quite WNW more W but close to WNW.

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Justin in Miami
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22006 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:52 PM

Hopefully I am speaking to the choir. The bottomline for those who live on FL east coast and are reading these boards wondering what to do or not do, is to begin preparing NOW; this does not mean panic....get some supplies...check your shutters/bolts/plywood......and sometimes take a break from these boards... watching the tennis match in the models can drive you nuts....remember what you do now can also help you next month...when the peak of the season begins!

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Colleen A.
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Rabbit]
      #22007 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:53 PM

Yes, me too. Especially with an eye as big as Frances', it might be hard to discern between a "wobble" and an actual track change. Jeez, I'm getting a headache.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Rabbit
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22008 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:55 PM

the only way to get the actual motion trend is to look at the wide view--the images are spaced farther apart than on the floater

or you could block out every other image (by clicking the squares)


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Frank P
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Great high resolution sat pix [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22009 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:56 PM

not many loops but impressive if you have not viewed it yet..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...e&itype=vis

still looks to me at about 280 to 285 degrees... from all the radar looks I taken of late


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lilyv
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Re: recon [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22010 - Tue Aug 31 2004 12:57 PM

many thanks, colleen!

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wxman007
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Rasvar]
      #22012 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:02 PM

One thing to rememver about tracking a center with radar is that the further away you are from the radar, the higher in the storm you are sampling...for instance, at about 80 miles away you are looking at 10000 ft up in the storm...now, if the storm isn't perfectly upright, then as you scan up into the storm, it can appear to impart a motion that isn't a true motion because of that lean. Not saying that this is happening in this case, but be wary of tracking a storm center at range with radar.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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GaryC
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Rabbit]
      #22014 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:04 PM

I just want to say that everyone in Florida needs to wait and watch to see what will happen. I love to track hurricane's I would never wish someone to lose life or belongings like our friends in Cent Fl have. I hope that that people prepare for the worst and pray for the best. Be prepared and keep cool I guess is what I am trying to say. I am in JAX and if it comes here then oh well, it does. "Nobody can change what will happen in life, they can only learn and accept." Be safe all...

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meto
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22015 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:05 PM

colleen, does it look like it is getting stronger. looks like a classic cv hurricane. its barely moving north maybe .01 degree. mainly west as it has been.

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Frank P
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Re: Northward motion [Re: wxman007]
      #22016 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:08 PM

Good point Jason as you can't see the LLC that far out using the PR radar loops, however, I always try to combine the radar presentation with sat pixs both IR and VIS (if available) in making a determination as to direction of system... untl recon tells me what's really going on.... I think using both systems (radar/sat pix) you can get about a 90% accuracy as to overall direction... IMO

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Justin in Miami
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Frank P]
      #22017 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:10 PM

looks to me like it is going a little north of west at the moment and the last couple of sat shots

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meto
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22019 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:19 PM

twc was talking few minutes ago, maybe headed to cat.5 it looks im afraid the best it has . and it still moving mainly west over the last advisories.

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Rabbit
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22020 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:19 PM

I see it too

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Floridacane
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22021 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:20 PM

For about 2-3 frames its moving slightly North. I would want to see that for awhile before its a trend though. Anyway, just be prepared. People here in Southern Brevard are taking this very seriously. Generators, wood, water....Its going fast.

--------------------
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HCW
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22022 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:20 PM

Wouldn't the pressure have to fall a good 22 mb for a cat 5 ?

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doug
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22023 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:22 PM

If the current visible show, as I think it does, that it is about to cross 65 at approx 20.5N then it is to the right of the GFS/GFDL numbers...( GFDL 20.5N/66.5W)...Food for thought.

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rickonboat
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movement wwnw [Re: meto]
      #22024 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:22 PM

The ke to this system is the influence of the high pressure ridge. The models had the ridge moving offshore, hence, allowing Frances to turn more northerly. However, to my knowledge, that hasn't happened.

Forward motion appears the same too...so, the track will stay about the same. Could be a sweeping slow turn to the north, and not anything generally quick to pick up.

Wonder what the update will show as far as intensity. Huge layer of purple convection wrapping around the storm, with the eye getting more and more concentric. Storm is intensifying.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Northward motion [Re: meto]
      #22026 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:28 PM

I'm still confused as to why the GOES Satellite doesn't have it outside the 20 box yet, but when you look at the Western Atlantic & Carib. satellite, it is! Another interesting thing I noticed: looking at the strike probablilities archive, the probs have gone UP for WPB instead of DOWN. You would think that with the new track it would have been the opposite.

Well, 5pm will be interesting. And yes, it looks like it's getting stronger. And bigger.

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Brad
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Re: Northward motion [Re: doug]
      #22027 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:28 PM

Similar to Doug's comment, the center might be a few ticks of a degree to the right of the NHC forecast track, but not a significant amount; certainly not enough to say that it's off of that track. So far, what little northward component to the motion exists is consistent with the NHC's forecast.

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jbcmh81
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Re: Northward motion [Re: HCW]
      #22028 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:28 PM

HMC, the pressure in hurricanes varies. For instance, in 1992, Andrew was a tropical storm with an amazingly high pressure of 1015mb. Local atmospheric pressures can affect tropical system pressures, and they can have higher than normal pressures but still have much higher wind speeds, and vice versa. In 1999, Floyd reached its max at 150mph with a minimum pressure of 921mb. Last year, when Isabell reached Cat 5 strength, it's mininum was 920, and at one point it was a Cat 5 with a pressure as high as 938mb. There are many factors involved, but you don't necessarily need another 22mb drop to see a Cat 5 with Frances.

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Colleen A.
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A 27A Advisory.... [Re: rickonboat]
      #22029 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:31 PM

will be helpful. Doesn't that come in at around 2 or so? Maybe that will give us some more brainfood.

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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22030 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:35 PM

The probs will go up because the system is getting closer-regardless of its path.

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rickonboat
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amazing what a hundred miles can mean. [Re: jbcmh81]
      #22031 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:35 PM

A little further south, and the beautiful Virgin Islands would have suffered terrible damage, with Puerto Rico next. Suffice to say, a plane trip out of the Bahamas is in order. We watch this, and just a little thought, and we realize...."what would I be doing, if I had delayed...and a plane out of the Bahamas is not possible?"...I for one, would NOT want to be on a little Island with a cat 5 barreling down on me....

Sure hope it misses the islands..but don't see it...


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Colleen A.
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Re: Northward motion [Re: jbcmh81]
      #22032 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:35 PM

Let's not forget Charley, who had an 18mb pressure drop down to 944mb with winds at 115mph at 10am, then at 11am it skyrocketed to 145mph just as it was about to make landfall.

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JustMe
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Re: A 27A Advisory.... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22033 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:36 PM

so with the new track does that lesssen central Florida hit

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Jeffmidtown
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Re: movement wwnw [Re: rickonboat]
      #22034 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:37 PM

Even though the folks in Florida shouldn't let their guard down, the scariest part is now where the storm is heading and it looks like Savannah is going to feel the brunt of it. And they are already having some monor flooding in that part of the state now.

I would think that Gov. Perdue would be best served leaving the convention in NYC and heading back to Atlanta, because they probably are going to have to activate the state EOC probably sometime on Wednesday if Frances' current track and speed remain the same. If a Friday/Saturday landfall in SE Georgia is predicted then they would at least need a 48-hour window to evacuate the coastal areas and flip I-16 to one way( like with Floyd). BUT< with the dearth of hotel rooms in Macon and here in Atlanta, you could see a major exodus to Alabama to get away from this monster.

This has to be the most frustrating storm to try and figure out the track and the timing. I guess I'm sounding alarmist because even though I'm 4 hours from the coast, the not knowing is the worst thing.


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wxman007
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Re: Northward motion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22035 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:40 PM

Quote:

I'm still confused as to why the GOES Satellite doesn't have it outside the 20 box yet, but when you look at the Western Atlantic & Carib. satellite, it is!




Colleen, shoot me the links to the sats you are looking at and I will try to clear it up....



Quote:

Another interesting thing I noticed: looking at the strike probablilities archive, the probs have gone UP for WPB instead of DOWN. You would think that with the new track it would have been the opposite.




Not really, as the storm gets closer, the overall confidence in the forecast track gets better...remember that is not over WPB, but with 65 MILES of WPB...that is simply just a reflection of Frances being closer to the US.

Quote:

Well, 5pm will be interesting. And yes, it looks like it's getting stronger. And bigger.




Yes, it does....

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Colleen A.
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Re: A 27A Advisory.... [Re: JustMe]
      #22036 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:43 PM

Yes, it does. But just keep in mind that it is still heading in our general direction, and the track really can't be pinned down until we see some real consistincies with the track/models etc. Also, don't just look at the symbol, look all around it. That's the margin of error. The closer it gets, the smaller that will become and somewhere someone will be breathing a sigh of relief while others start hyperventilating. Keep yourself tuned in to your local news.

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meto
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Re: A 27A Advisory.... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22038 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:46 PM

it is moving wwnw you have to look at overall path not every little wobble. this thing is getting very strong......think models are are going left again.

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SoonerShawn
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Something to consider! [Re: wxman007]
      #22039 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:51 PM

If Frances is getting stronger, which she looks like she is, she could possibly change the environment around her which would really complicate things. The stronger she gets,the more likely she creates her own path. Models will not pick up on that. If I'm wrong about this than please excuse this whole post!


ShawnS


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Colleen A.
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Satellite Loops [Re: wxman007]
      #22040 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:53 PM

Here you go, Jason:

GOES Satellite Loop

Western Atlantic WV Loop

I couldn't get the visible page to come up; but I did notice that on this one it sure has jumped to the north quite a bit.

Thanks for clearing up the strike probs. question up, and helping me understand these pictures.

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meto
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Re: Something to consider! [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #22041 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:56 PM

twc it is now down to 27.92 from 28.05

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Domino
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T Numbers [Re: meto]
      #22042 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:57 PM

I use to have a site book-marked which has the most recent t-numbers. Anyone still have a link to this site?

Thanks!


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jbcmh81
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Re: Something to consider! [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #22043 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:57 PM

Frances *is* getting stronger. Latest Recon has the pressure down to 942mb.

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mikeG
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noaa3 [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22044 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:58 PM

URNT11 KWBC 311728
97779 17284 30207 64719 24200 12112 15125 /8487
RMK NOAA3 1106A Frances OB 06 KWBC


winds 112? 20.7N 64.7w?
not a center fix tho


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HCW
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Re: T Numbers [Re: Domino]
      #22045 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:58 PM

942 mb

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Shawn W.
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Re: Satellite Loops [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22046 - Tue Aug 31 2004 01:59 PM

This is definitely more WNW than W.

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AgentB
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Re: Northward motion [Re: wxman007]
      #22047 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:00 PM

Wouldn't the "wobbles" be attributed to Frances sort of feeling her way along the bottom of the ridge? I mean the ridge isn't a perfect shape, and where it dips or retreats wouldn't Frances also move a bit north of south? Also, does anyone have a link to a map/model of exactly what the subtropical ridge is forecast to look like in the upcoming days?

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wxman007
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Re: Satellite Loops [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22048 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:00 PM

OK..there isn't much disparity there to my eye...everything looks right with one exception..you don't track the center with WV!!!! (I'm not harping on you specifically here, BTW), You are seeing the mid-level center on WV and the low level center on Vis's....they SHOULDN'T match up exactly,

Otherwise, I really still don't follow you, because the two loops you linked match up quite well.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Something to consider! [Re: jbcmh81]
      #22049 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:00 PM

Well, this is just my own thought: could be that while Frances was busy intensifying, she was wobbling here and there. Of course, I could (and probably am) incorrect.

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jlauderdal
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Re: Satellite Loops [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22050 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:03 PM

colleen,
its crosed 20 and 65...moving a good clip actually, wnw continues and its on track but maybe a bit fast. if yous tart to see it slow than there might be a turn coming but that really isnt part of the plan.


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HCW
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Re: Something to consider! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22051 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:04 PM

Quote:

Well, this is just my own thought: could be that while Frances was busy intensifying, she was wobbling here and there. Of course, I could (and probably am) incorrect.




I was going to say the exact same thing but didn't feel like getting bashed

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Colleen A.
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Re: Satellite Loops [Re: wxman007]
      #22052 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:04 PM

Thanks, Jason...it is definitely hard to follow me at times.

I was looking at the Visibles from both; the only reason I posted the WV was because the visible would not come up on the NHC's website.

It will all come together for me sooner or later. Hopefully sooner.

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jth
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Re: Northward motion [Re: LI Phil]
      #22055 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:09 PM

Don't know what your looking at, but it wobbled north and has since wobbled back wsw a little. Still on a westerly course.

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Rasvar
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Re: Satellite Loops [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22056 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:09 PM

If i am looking at the 12Z GFS right, it looks like it shifted to the left near Cape Canaveral on Sunday and shooting up to SC/GA Border on Monday morning.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Something to consider! [Re: HCW]
      #22058 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:11 PM

West at 16mph...so it's sped up a little bit and now expected to make a turn later on today. I think they may be a little conservative with the winds.

I'm not afraid to get bashed. I'm a weather hobbiest, not an expert. Besides, I don't take it personally, I just take it as a "gentle learning curve".

Than I send Frank P. out to finish you off.

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CONCERNEDINMIAMI
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Re: Satellite Loops [Re: Rasvar]
      #22059 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:13 PM

THE NASA HAS PLACED LANDFALL AT WEST PALM BEACH, DISCOUNTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH

CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY THE NHC IS RELYING SO HEAVILY ON THIS EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE?

SEEMS TO ME THE MODELS MAY BE RELYING ON HISTORICAL DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECON???


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LI Phil
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18Z GFS [Re: Rasvar]
      #22060 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:13 PM

How long will it take for the 18Z GFS to get all the data needed to put out a run?

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lois..
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ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22061 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:14 PM

Thanks first off for all your help here.

First.. why isn't Miami a 9 on probs and WPB say a 12?
Why are they both the same if the storm is supposed to come in up the coast at a higher angle? That sort of makes me wonder.

Second.. there is talk Miami could get stronger than TS winds which yesterday was mostly what "they" were saying.

Third..does anyone know here how the FSU ensemble is going? Are they in line with a right hand turn or are they the same as yesterday? Does anyone know?

Fourth..Because as it strengthens it develops a high aloft which enhances the high pressure driving it west? Is possibly why it is moving faster now than it was before?

Fifth..can someone point out the where the weakness will be on Thursday late in the day?

thanks


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Kimster
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Re: Northward motion [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #22062 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:14 PM

I don't believe that is necessarily true.

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john03
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how its lookin? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22063 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:16 PM

THE 2 PM AST POSITION...20.3 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB

so were does this put it in relation to model runs?


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Keith234
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Re: Satellite Loops [Re: CONCERNEDINMIAMI]
      #22064 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:16 PM

There basing their forecast so heavily on the weakeness on the ridge because the ridge is governing the track of Frances if it wasn't there or not so south this cane would have become a fish spinner, or set it's sights on a new target.

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Steve
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Re: Something to consider! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22065 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:17 PM

I'm still with my southern North Carolina call from last week (yeah, that's south of the Outer Banks). I could be a tad far north to be sure.

Anyway, Ken Aucion (former Fox8 #2 Met know Chief at a station in Columbia, SC) also thinks Frances has a great shot of attaining Cat V status. Bastardi think it can get down a slow as 925mb but if it follows his track, he thinks it's weakening at landfall.

He also did a nice expose of a SE flow this year which would tend to concentrate the rain and storms a certain way (e.g. Gulf wouldn't probably get hit from a long tracked storm but more likely from something developing out of the Caribbean or Gulf itself.

Steve

PS - A rickonboat post without a cat 5 call for Mobile is a day without vitamin c - serious time or not.

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Colleen A.
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Models [Re: CONCERNEDINMIAMI]
      #22066 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:20 PM

What is the NASA? Is that a model used by the NHC? Yesterday the NHC stated that it was relying on the GFDL because of it's consistency. There's so much information coming in that has to be fed into all these models; let's not forget that they're input by human hands and errors can be made either way. I really don't think there's a "general consensus" with the models at this point.

Another interesting point: when Charley was coming, almost every single model brought it in to Tampa Bay, except one. I think it was the MM5 or something like that...it brought it onshore at Ft. Myers.

It was right.

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LI Phil
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1745 Dvoraks [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22067 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:23 PM

31/1745 UTC 20.4N 65.0W T6.0/6.0 Frances
31/1745 UTC 40.1N 70.0W T2.5/2.5 GASTON

6.0/6.0

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concernedinmiami
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Re: Models [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22068 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:24 PM

I meant NASA, they are forecasting the system separate and apart from the NHC, making their own forecast -- in fact, they are launching Saturday's rocket today, and evacuating their premises after launch...they expect landfall in S. Fla and then a push upward through the state

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Keith234
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs [Re: lois..]
      #22069 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:24 PM

I can anwser your third question, your are right about the high being over the hurricane, it's the main driving force for the outflow of a hurricane. As the upper level high becomes stronger it pushes dry, subsiding air over the ridge, making it strengthen. Yes, that is a possibly reason for it moving faster than it was before, but it moving more west is somewhat likely. A hurricane is a cork in a river, it modifies it's existing surrondings, so what your saying could be a reason for the general westward movement.

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Colleen A.
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I Agree! [Re: Steve]
      #22070 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:25 PM

Yes, it would be like a day without Vitamin C not to hear the "Mobile" hit once a day. Even a broken clock's right twice a day, huh?

I can't even think of predicting where this storm is going to go. I don't think I ever have, come to think of it. I'm not that good at predicting any type of weather event, so why even bother?

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Rasvar
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Re: Models [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22071 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:26 PM

NASA also can not wait for a definate track. If the Atlas rocket for tonight does not get launched, they may have to do major stowage work to protect the payload. NASA will always have to take the most conservative route becuase of the time it takes them to secure operations. Therefore, NASA has to act before many other agencies. However, they still only use the same information that the NHC has. They do not have anything different. They may choose to interpet differently for their own use.

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Satellite Loops [Re: CONCERNEDINMIAMI]
      #22072 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:27 PM

Quote:

THE NASA HAS PLACED LANDFALL AT WEST PALM BEACH, DISCOUNTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH

CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY THE NHC IS RELYING SO HEAVILY ON THIS EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE?

SEEMS TO ME THE MODELS MAY BE RELYING ON HISTORICAL DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECON???




Do you have the link to NASA???


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LI Phil
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NASA site? [Re: concernedinmiami]
      #22073 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:28 PM

>>> I meant NASA, they are forecasting the system separate and apart from the NHC, making their own forecast

Is the NASA site available for the public (at least the weather forecast portion)? If so, can you post a link to it?

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mikeG
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Re: Models [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22074 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:29 PM

noaa flights and sat and gps drops obs...a 1330utc 31 aug.... had most winds ne of center (strongest 22nm , ne of center) a very classical looking hurricane..... she did have a big area of cat 3 winds from north to south on east side extending far from center..(maybe by 35miles at most)..
*note this just reasearch data*

i am going over data coming in right now from NOAA3, (they done alot of drops today)..... think i saw a wind guest of or near 157


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Rasvar
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Re: Models [Re: concernedinmiami]
      #22075 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:29 PM

Actually, they have not moved anything up. It is the same rocket that they have scrubbed the launch on for four consecutive since last Saturday. I doubt they get it off before they have to take it off the bad and remove the payload.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Models [Re: concernedinmiami]
      #22076 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:29 PM

That is not totally correct. The rocket they are attempting to lift off, a spy rocket, was actually scheduled for lift off days ago and the launch has been scrubbed every day , including yesterday, because of lightening in the area.. So Saturday's rocket is actually last weeks rocket...

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Brad
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs [Re: lois..]
      #22077 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:45 PM

Lois:

"First.. why isn't Miami a 9 on probs and WPB say a 12?
Why are they both the same if the storm is supposed to come in up the coast at a higher angle? That sort of makes me wonder."

Because Miami is closer to the storm than WPB. Those probabilities only reflect the chance of the storm coming within 65 nm within 72 hours. Thus, Miami's odds on the NHC site will rise somewhat earlier than WPB's, because Miami will be in that 72-hour window several hours before WPB. Similarly, when the NHC was predicting that Charley would landfall near Tampa, the odds for cities farther South (e.g., Naples) went up before the odds for Tampa went up because most of the 3-day forecasts still had it south of Tampa.

So IF the forecast track remains the same, then the WBP odds should be slightly higher than Miami's odds in a day or two. However, because the two cities are not that far apart and because some of the same models that project a hit farther south would bring it within 65 nm of both cities, the odds for the two cities likely will not be that much different.


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Brad
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs [Re: Brad]
      #22078 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:47 PM

And I meant, "that much different FROM EACH OTHER," not, "that much different FROM WHAT THEY ARE NOW." Of course the odds will change - likely increase - as the storm gets closer.

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Colleen A.
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NASA [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22079 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:48 PM

Okay, well if NASA has such a great weather forecasting group, why the heck don't they launch these rockets BEFORE lightning strikes? Like in the morning? Geez louise.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Redbird
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Re: Models [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22080 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:50 PM

Toho is right on this one. My other half works for a telemetry site which tracks launches and this one was originally set to go friday but mechanical as well as weather has scrubbed it out.

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Redbird
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Re: NASA [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22081 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:51 PM

Colleen I was wondering the same thing about the launches........do it before the t-storms come up.

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RockledgeRick
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Re: NASA [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22082 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:55 PM

Why not launch in the morning when there is less lighning? Well because certain payloads are intended for specific geo-synchronus orbits. The launch has to be specifically timed to reach a certain point over the earth while expending the least amount of fuel. It's called a "launch window" . Jeez Louise!

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: NASA [Re: Redbird]
      #22083 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:55 PM

I think the launch times are dictated by where they want the satelite to be positioned and the intended orbit. But I agreee,the wx is usually fine in the moring. Go figure.

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JustMe
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Re: NASA [Re: Redbird]
      #22084 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:55 PM

will someone please say if central Florida is less likely to get the blunt of Frances ... in your thoghts is Jaxvl and north more likely to take the hit?

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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caneman
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Re: NASA [Re: Redbird]
      #22085 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:55 PM

OK, Gut call here. The ULL is really acclerating to the West now. This was one of the features to turn the system more West. High pressure seems to be in control over Florida. The system is picking up speed. Really just a matter of does it beat the trough in or will the trough even have an affect. I'm going with Florida storm!

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rickonboat
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cat 5 soon [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22086 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:56 PM

won't see a hurricane much worse than this...is 200 mph winds possible?...

sho enough...


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Cocoa Beach
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Re: NASA [Re: JustMe]
      #22088 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:57 PM

Why would you want someone to commit to such a statement?
This far out it would be like reaching over your shoulder to scratch your butt.


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caneman
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Re: NASA [Re: caneman]
      #22089 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:58 PM

Quote:

OK, Gut call here. The ULL is really acclerating to the West now. This was one of the features to turn the system more North. High pressure seems to be in control over Florida. The system is picking up speed. Really just a matter of does it beat the trough in or will the trough even have an affect. I'm going with Florida storm!




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Clark
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Re: NASA [Re: Redbird]
      #22090 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:58 PM

Thunderstorms aren't exactly easy to predict. You can predict a likelihood a day or two in advance, but the exact location is almost impossible until the day of the storm.

In any case...back on topic.

Frances is looking better on satellite imagery, if not exactly symmetrical with it's convection. With the eyewall cycle from yesterday back in the past and warm water/low shear ahead, strengthening is likely for a day or two at least. I would not be surprised to see the convection go more symmetric (it's there now, but ragged along the edges) and see the storm reach to near cat 5 status...probably not yet, but during the next diurnal max.

Track -- still the million dollar question. Due to liability issues, I can't give out the Superensemble material any more, so I apologize. I will say that it pretty much follows the NHC official track from last night, however, but is higher on intensity. I'd still trend a little to the left of that, but there is considerable uncertainty with the eventual track and I'm not buying the recurvature bit...not yet at least. The further south it makes landfall, the more people it will impact and the stronger it will be. Kinda obvious, yes, but worth repeating.

No idea about what's going on outside the Frances realm today, so I'll leave it at that.


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Maitland, FL
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Re: NASA [Re: caneman]
      #22091 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:59 PM

If the ULL accelerates westward, does that mean Central Florida is still in the line of fire? What are your thoughts about this?

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Redbird
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Re: NASA [Re: RockledgeRick]
      #22092 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:59 PM

Yeah but the meter ticks for those that are involved in the launch..............the scrubs and wait times do run into lots of money.

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mikeG
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Re: cat 5 soon [Re: rickonboat]
      #22093 - Tue Aug 31 2004 02:59 PM

URNT11 KWBC 311848
97779 18484 30216 67600 24400 05037 14093 /8013
RMK NOAA3 1106A Frances OB 13 KWBC


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caneman
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Re: NASA [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #22094 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:00 PM

I gave my reasoning. It's not as if I just threw a dart at the board. My reasoning stands for itslef, albeit it could be wrong. I'm not a professional so this isn't to be taken as such. And if I'm wrong I'll gladly eat crow. BTW, at the present motion of the system it realls isn't that far out.

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SoonerShawn
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Caneman [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #22095 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:01 PM

Did you mean maybe the ULL would have caused it to turn NORTH?


ShawnS


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Joe
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs [Re: Brad]
      #22097 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:03 PM

Much uncertainty with regards to Frances. Models not helping much at least in the long term. GFS which continues too flip back and forth. 00Z GFS had it headed towards NC-12z now has it brushing FL coastline and lanfalling in GA. Latest spaghetti model plot has few making sharp turn toward NW-N, several bring this towrds central/N FL,and then theres a few which head it more west-WNW. I'am still up in the air on future of ridging to north as many are, for now I''ll go with ''possible'' landfall between Stuart and Jacksonville FL(or what previous NHC 5AM track was) although still a ton of question marks???


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c ray
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Re: NASA [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22098 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:05 PM

Long time lurker (since Floyd), and posted only one time. I always use this site to keep informed as storms approach, and it's no different w/ Frances. I live in Brevard Co., and the company I work for is in the furniture business with deliveries scheduled each day through the weekend. My question to those who are more in the know would be this- if the track remains close to the East Coast when would evacuations begin to go up? As a company we are trying to decide a course of action and would appreciate any input to help decide when to suspend operations if needed.

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Cocoa Beach
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Re: NASA [Re: caneman]
      #22099 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:05 PM

Hey Caneman,

I was refering to:
will someone please say if central Florida is less likely to get the blunt of Frances ... in your thoghts is Jaxvl and north more likely to take the hit?

--------------------
JustMe

Just me's statement, I don't think anyone can tell him if he is clear or not.


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Brett
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs [Re: Brad]
      #22100 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:05 PM

Great debate here kids. Thanks for the information Jason. Answer me this: We all agree the strength and/or weakness of the ridge to the north will determine the fate of Frances. What I have not seen are updates on this issue. Local mets here last night were discussing the possibility that if the trough in the northern US deepens, a high pressure ridge somewhere would have to correspondigly strengthen, and all bets were on the atlantic high. Are there any idications as to whether the ridge is strenghtening, moving, or weakening? Is it possible Frances could follow the AVN and do a slow swing north and slice the coast of florida all the way up through the carolinas? I would rather not have to board up my windows, and have a wedding to attend on Saturday. Where can I look to see the strength of the ridge to plan accordingly?

Puzzled,

Brett

--------------------
South Florida


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CAPE CORAL
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Re: cat 5 soon [Re: rickonboat]
      #22101 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:05 PM

Well everything I have seen over the past hour shows Frances making a mnor jog northwestward and now continues west at this time. Frances continues to look stronger on satellite as outflow increasing to the north allowing Frances to strengthen again. I would epect pressures to fall this afternoon and winds increase to a strong Cat. 4(150 mph). I was thinking earlier that Frances was making its turn w-nw but simce its jog a definit west track has continued. I do agree Frances will turn w-nw as it approaches the Bahama's but again exactly where it makes the turn is very important. I still do not feel Frances will miss Florida but where in Florida is still unknown. My guess is still between WPB and Vero Beach. Like everyone else wait and see.

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CAPE CORAL
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Re: cat 5 soon [Re: rickonboat]
      #22102 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:05 PM

(Duplicate post removed by moderator)

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 03:14 PM)


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JustMe
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs [Re: Joe]
      #22103 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:07 PM

appreciate your thoughts and help
have company wanting to come to florida for the holiday

i want to tell them not to come

thanks again

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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john03
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could it be? [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #22104 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:07 PM

the "front" over the southeast is pulling north due to high over florida and ULL over se florida is pushing in GOM.. this appears to be worse case possible.... more south track into florida.....unless atlantic high moves east fast, florida is under the gun

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Maitland, FL
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Re: Projections [Re: Joe]
      #22105 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:12 PM

The models are all up in the air and I really don't think we will know where it makes landfall at until a couple of hours before. Like with Charley, all the models were in general agreement with Tampa Bay, but one had it going into Ft. Myers. And by chance, it did go towards Ft. Myers. I'm not buying this recurvature thing, and I don't think we'll know whats going to happen till it actually does. Everyone from Miami to Jacksonville should be on the lookout.

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scottsvb1
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Re: could it be? [Re: john03]
      #22106 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:12 PM

your right john. some 18Z models in and show again east central florida.

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caneman
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Re: could it be? [Re: john03]
      #22107 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:13 PM

The ULL in the Bahamas was barely moving earlier and now it looks like it is really retrograding. Wouldn't this be because of a fairly stong ridge shoving it? And the spped of Frances has picked up again wouldn't this be becuase of a fairly strong ridge? I don't know all the answers but that is what it seems like to me.

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alan
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Re: could it be? [Re: john03]
      #22108 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:14 PM

I was looking at the water vapor loop and it looked as if the trough is not moving further south. Is the trough currently starting at New Orleans and moving NE across Alabama the deciding factor or is it one behind that.

The reason I ask is with Charley, the trough extended way into the GOM. This one doesn't seem to be moving further south than New Orleans.


Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but an ULL will put a hurricane approaching from the west, as in this case, would be pulled to the north. After all, upper level winds would be going counterclockwise and upper level winds are the steering for the hurricanes. That would mean Frances would get tugged from 5 p.m toward midnight.

Please let me know if I'm wrong.


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Orlando
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Re: could it be? [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22109 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:14 PM

Where are you getting these models from? Whats the website? I'd appreciate it!

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caneman
Unregistered




Re: could it be? [Re: caneman]
      #22110 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:16 PM

And if I'm right. I also think landfall in Florida would be wuicker then what is progged. Say Friday afternoon if landfall is Miami but Friday evening if Vero or the Cape. Thoughts and input welcome

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: NASA [Re: Clark]
      #22111 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:16 PM

Clark, thanks for your post and insight,
You told us a lot with your post.

No false hope here of an early turn.

Everyone in Florida please take this storm seriously.

Make preparations now, today while you have time.


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: could it be? [Re: alan]
      #22112 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:18 PM

yes, I meant to say North but now with the ULL backing out it may not have any affect on pulling Frances North.

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Joe
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Re: could it be? [Re: caneman]
      #22113 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:18 PM

Much uncertainty with regards to Frances. Models not helping much at least in the long term. GFS which continues too flip back and forth. 00Z GFS had it headed towards NC-12z now has it brushing FL coastline and lanfalling in GA. Latest spaghetti model plot has few making sharp turn toward NW-N, several bring this towrds central/N FL,and then theres a few which head it more west-WNW. I'am still up in the air on future of ridging to north as many are, for now I''ll go with ''possible'' landfall between Stuart and Jacksonville FL(or what previous NHC 5AM track was) although still a ton of question marks???

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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22114 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:20 PM

URNT14 KNHC 311813
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01191 10635 13132 11107 23050
02193 20637 23126 21103 21046
03194 30639 33109 31006 22051
04196 40641 43083 41107 22055
05198 50643 53043 51208 22058
06200 60644 63985 61111 23075
07202 70646 73838 71311 21100
MF202 M0647 MF105
OBS 01 AT 1701Z
OBS 07 AT 1725Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01205 10651 13620 11813 05082
02207 20652 23885 21210 06116
03208 30654 33995 31110 06099
04210 40656 43058 41109 05073
05212 50658 53088 51009 05069
06214 60660 63112 61206 05072
07215 70662 73130 71204 05062
MF205 M0651 MF137
OBS 01 AT 1733Z
OBS 07 AT 1759Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 04050
RMK AF985 1006A Frances OB 09


winds 137....20.5 65.1


URNT11 KNHC 311833
97779 18334 30192 66718 30600 33033 11038 /3131 43110
RMK AF985 1006A Frances OB 10

As HF will surely remind you, please don't rip & paste these reports unless you can add some commentary or explanation. Thanks!

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 03:24 PM)


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doug
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Re: NASA [Re: caneman]
      #22115 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:21 PM

From the 2:05 tropical discussion:
"Another upper cyclone...400NM in diameter...is along the W periphery of the altc ridge near 24N78W. The cyclone is retrograding W at about 10KT...possibly contributing slightly to Frances steering N of due W at this time."

Recall I suggested yesterday and again this morning this low would influence the course of the strom and because it was not retrograding as fast as the storm was approaching. Iit could explain why the models had picked up on the NW move...
Now the latest WV suggests that this ULL is accelerating to the SW a little faster and the strom has actually pushed this west much more today than it did yesterday. the eastern most influence of it westerday was over Hipanola, but today it is west of the Bahamas, and the axis of the ULL is digging to the SW. Perhaps the models tomorrow will reflect the lessining of the influence of this VERY LARGE upper feature, and reshape the projected path again.

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
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Eyeball it... [Re: Joe]
      #22116 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:21 PM

Here's the WV Loop of the basin. You can clearly see the ULL over the Bahama's as well as the approaching trof. Clearly this could be a race...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: could it be? [Re: Orlando]
      #22117 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:23 PM

Quote:

Where are you getting these models from? Whats the website? I'd appreciate it!




you can get models here

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Joe
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Re: could it be? [Re: Orlando]
      #22118 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:23 PM

http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

orlando heres one of many I use...


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs [Re: JustMe]
      #22119 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:25 PM

For JUst me ...

This hurricane is a major event. It can possibly be worse than Charley. Florida will not be a pleasant place to be before/during/ or after this storm.

Me? I would tell them most definately not to come.


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Orlando
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Re: could it be? [Re: Joe]
      #22120 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:28 PM

Thanks a lot! That helps to understand what you all are talking about these models.

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scottsvb1
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Re: NASA [Re: doug]
      #22121 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:29 PM

I also mention that couple days ago Doug, good obs. I been tracking Frances on radar the last 4 hours and after a 2 hour wobble wnw then last 90 min has shown more w. I would suspect unless another jog occurs that it will be near 20.5N and 66w. Still moving w but wnw should happen this evening,(if not,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,what even say it!!) LOL.

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Ricreig
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Re: I Agree! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22122 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:30 PM

Quote:

I can't even think of predicting where this storm is going to go. I don't think I ever have, come to think of it. I'm not that good at predicting any type of weather event, so why even bother?


What you *ARE* good at is exhibiting a bit of 'horse-sense' at times. You draw the 'alarmists' and the 'knowledgable' together when you ask questions and make observations...keep it going!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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scottsvb1
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Re: NASA [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22123 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:32 PM

that is as of 5pm eastern,,,,recon shows pressure is down to 940mb,

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Justin in Miami
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Re: NASA [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22124 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:35 PM

meaning?

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mikeG
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recon [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22125 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:36 PM

URNT12 KNHC 311907
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1907Z
B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N
65 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 50 KT
E. 226 DEG 084 NM
F. 323 DEG 123 KT
G. 238 DEG 011 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 13 C/ 3074 M
J. 24 C/ 3057 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. .1 /2 NM
P. AF985 1006A Frances OB 11
MAX FL WIND 137 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.

pressure down....also....noaa reported small hail too...


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LI Phil
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5 eastern? [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22126 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:38 PM

>>> that is as of 5pm eastern,,,,recon shows pressure is down to 940mb

Not sure what you are referring to scottsvb...it's 3:35 here in the Eastern time zone. Is that what will show up in the 5:00 TWD? Could you please explain a bit more...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: NASA [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22127 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:40 PM

Scott, not to be offensive, but the 18Z models aren't out yet to my knowledge, particularly the GFS. Correct me if I'm wrong here. Where are your projections for Frances to Land?? Think its still a south/central florida event or north Florida//North.

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RBL
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RE: Links [Re: Orlando]
      #22128 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:40 PM

Orlado,

This a good link where have all toghether:

http://www.net-waves.com/weather/td06.php


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doug
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Re: ULL over the Bahamas [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22129 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:44 PM

What interests me about this feature is that if the ULL erodes and elongates out to the SW as it seems to be doing , that could actually reinforce the ridge or build a secondary ridge in its wake that would certainly influence the storm's intensity and direction.

I'm not a scientist and this is just an opinion, but if this gets out of the way, I think Frances could stay south of the cyrrent model trend.
That's why we have to wait and see what shakes out tomorro, IMO.

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Justin in Miami
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Site Performance [Re: RBL]
      #22130 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:45 PM

Mike and the admins...i just want to say that this site continues to have good performance compared to S2K...i imagine that will change rather soon though.

That's because Mike is jumping through hoops to keep it up and running. Everyone on this board owes Mike an incredible debt of gratitude. Let's hope she stays up...

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 03:47 PM)


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scottsvb1
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Re: RE: Links [Re: RBL]
      #22131 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:45 PM

Yes Phil, around that coor by 5pm, and yes steve the tropical models been out for 2 hours. Such as LBAR, BAMMs models.

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scottsvb1
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Re: RE: Links [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22132 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:47 PM

Dont know exact landfall, I wont have a good idea till after the 12Z models come out weds, but still even then, things can change.

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mikeG
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22133 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:47 PM

between last vortex and this on.e... she gained about 1m bigger eye....and pressure dropped... also it apears that from nw to ne and to se side winds are above 110mph!!!!
she may become a cat 5 overnight


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HCW
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22134 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:49 PM

I know that this is a little OT but is Stacy doing the 5pm update ?

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Redbird
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Re: Site Performance [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22135 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:52 PM

Yes he does......................and if this becomes a pay site, count me in as it is not cheap to run something like this. Redbird

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LI Phil
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Landfall? [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22136 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:52 PM

Tomorrow is the make or break day...been saying that all along as have others. We won't know for sure even then, but with all the empirical and other data, climo & even eyesight (plus all the models), we will probably be able to guestimate a landfall location within 100-200 miles...strength will be much tougher to predict. Whereever it does decide to go ashore, though, we better hope it happens at low tide, because we had a full moon last night and tides will still be a bit higher than normal at landfall.

Everyone should probably take a big break from tracking Frances over the next 12-24 hours and catch up on sleep. Doesn't appear too many of us will be getting much of that come Thursday and onward...

--------------------
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Ricreig
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Re: Site Performance [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22137 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:53 PM

Quote:

Mike and the admins...i just want to say that this site continues to have good performance compared to S2K...i imagine that will change rather soon though.


I agree this site is super. Why are you saying 'change rather soon'?

Also, because this hurricane and it's effects are so important to so many people, and given the links here (and elsewhere) have and may continue to go down, I think it would be prudent for each member here to have an alternate site or two as a backup. If FLHurricane were to go down or be unreachable, where is the best alternate that gives the kind of data and expertise we see here. Certainly, the NHC site, but it doesn't tell us much about either the why or the alternatives. What URL's would you contribute for backup purposes? I hope this site does NOT go down, but I also hope my power doesn't get cut as this storm affects this area, but both events are likely....I know about generators and batteries, but what about good backups for this site IF needed. Lives could be affected by haveing good alternatives as this storm gets closer to whomever, S, Central or N, whomever ultimately gets the 'prize' of a Frances visit.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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HCW
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Re: Landfall? [Re: LI Phil]
      #22138 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:55 PM

Looks like anouther track shift based on the models .

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif


I wonder if the NHC track will change in the next adv that we should have in the next 40 mins.


If your running low of space I would be glad to donate just let me know .

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john03
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what does this mean? [Re: HCW]
      #22139 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:56 PM

31/1145 UTC 20.0N 63.2W T5.5/5.5 Frances

31/1745 UTC 20.4N 65.0W T6.0/6.0 Frances

cat 4? she is strengthing right?


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Justin in Miami
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Re: Site Performance [Re: Ricreig]
      #22140 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:56 PM

the closer the storm gets...the more people will jam up these boards.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Site Performance [Re: Ricreig]
      #22141 - Tue Aug 31 2004 03:57 PM

Yeah the site is showing signs of cracking, but I've got plaster ready. I've upgraded the server a bit Sunday, and I may have to again. The site requirements for a place like this are odd, in that it can be relatively slow for a while and then suddenly it spikes -- as in several orders of magnitude, as a 10GB access log file for the first half of August shows. I have been tweaking settings and memory to streamline it as well as offloading images to another bandwidth throttled server. (Text remains unthrottled)

I do have something new I just wrote, especially because of model fun... http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php

Is using the model group linked on the front page and taking snapshots every hour and animating it on that screen. It only has one seed image now, but should become more useful over time to help see trends in the models.


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mikeG
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cool sat shot! [Re: john03]
      #22142 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:00 PM

sat shot

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Kal
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Re: Site Performance [Re: MikeC]
      #22143 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:02 PM

Mike-I love the model animator concept. It'll be great to see a visual model trend history, as opposed to raw numbers and archived images. Kudos.

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doug
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Re: Site Performance [Re: MikeC]
      #22144 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:08 PM

That will be a great tool!

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Kevin
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Re: Landfall? [Re: HCW]
      #22145 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:08 PM

In reply to HCW...
My goodness, just look at how bad that UKMET initialization is! It is WELL north and east of even the last NHC intialization. I really can't buy into the UKMET track when the initial position is that far off. The GFDL is a little closer but seems to really be an outlier by taking the storm right up into South Carolina.

The 12Z GFS doesn't look too bad to me. It basically takes the storm into NE Florida, which seems reasonable given the pattern at this time.


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Justin in Miami
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Motion [Re: Kal]
      #22146 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:10 PM

i still think this storm is goind more wnw than w...minus a few wobbles left and right

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Motion [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22147 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:13 PM

It has to go wnw or else it bumps into the islands.
The forward speed is what has me concerned. Was this speed predicted? I think landfall may be sooner than originally thought.


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Steve
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Re: Site Performance [Re: Kal]
      #22148 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:13 PM

Thanks Mike - great work so far. No doubt the system's gonna crash at some point, but hopefully you'll have it back up and running soon thereafter. For the west movement folks, zoom in on your favorite GOES loop and you will see the system overall heading is WNW or north of due west, but it's not moving west. Frances is climbing in lat:

Check:

NOAA Vis

ORCA global infrared

Both depictions clearly show Frances attaining lat (pushing 21). DT (I think it was) believed this would be temporary as Frances felt the nudge from Gaston. We'll see.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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john03
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will it look the same? [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #22149 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:15 PM

this s floyd in 1999... 1999 September 14, 12:59 UT

fixing to see Frances soon!


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Colleen A.
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Re: Landfall? [Re: Kevin]
      #22150 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:17 PM

Watched the Tropical Update at 2:50pm and Cheryl Lemke said that a "gradual wnw turn is expected in the next couple of days". Well, if this sucker's still moving at 16mph in 48 hours, that is 770 miles further west before it STARTS that turn. Are we even that far from the Bahamas?

About the NASA comment: I realize that there's windows of opportunity. I made a general comment. I never said that I was a rocket scientist.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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bobbistorm
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agreed [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22151 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:20 PM

The plan was for it to start a wnw movement. As said if it doesnt it would crash into Cuba. Which is inside the cone but not expected. Not concerned with where it goes today as opposed to 3 days from now. Concerned a window opens but a narrow one and slams shut again and turns more west.

Will see.


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Ricreig
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Re: Site Performance [Re: MikeC]
      #22152 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:21 PM

Quote:

Yeah the site is showing signs of cracking, but I've got plaster ready. I've upgraded the server a bit Sunday, and I may have to again. The site requirements for a place like this are odd, in that it can be relatively slow for a while and then suddenly it spikes -- as in several orders of magnitude, as a 10GB access log file for the first half of August shows. I have been tweaking settings and memory to streamline it as well as offloading images to another bandwidth throttled server. (Text remains unthrottled)

I do have something new I just wrote, especially because of model fun... http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php

Is using the model group linked on the front page and taking snapshots every hour and animating it on that screen. It only has one seed image now, but should become more useful over time to help see trends in the models.


Mike, not only are you a at *least* a fair to middlin' weather prognosticator, but your programming skills are quite evident.I know, before I retired to start teaching, I *was* a programmer for Lockheed Martin for many years... I recognize good work when I see it.

Having said that, you don't control the reliability of power, the backbone and the like, so like a generator backs up power, when needed, alternate sites are still a good idea, IHMO. I've been a fan of this site since you started about '95 or so, and keep coming back here, not because of 'hype' but because of performance value. Even if I have to use a backup, I'll be back, and I'll bet a lot of others have similar views. You needn't worry about competition, the service you offer is A-1 in my book. Keep up the good work!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Redbird
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Re: Landfall? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22153 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:21 PM

No Colleen but you are a darn good weather person who has helped many see more clearly.

LOL the so-called rocket scientists botch up quite a bit.


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LI Phil
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SJ Radar [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22154 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:23 PM

Seeing these things on radar after watching so many sat loops is always a refreshing change. No matter where she goes, it's not going to be good. PR is VERY LUCKY as are the Islands. The Bahamas...that's a whole other story. Guess they're the first in line for the direct hit. Let's hope they make out OK

--------------------
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john03
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cool pic [Re: Ricreig]
      #22155 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:25 PM

evry seen something like this?

coooool pic....its a full moon over three storms


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Colleen A.
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Re: Landfall? [Re: Redbird]
      #22156 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:30 PM

Thanks, Redbird. I just like poking fun at myself, at least that way I don't take it personal. ;-)

I am anxiously awaiting the 5pm update, and then after THAT is over, I'm heading over to ESPN Fantasy Football to do my live draft at 6pm while trying to whip up dinner with a twitch of my nose around 8pm when Thing 1 and Thing 2 come home from football practice.

Sorry if that was OT, but I'm coming down with a case of Hurricanitis so I'm not quite myself. ;-)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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john03
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here latest color sat [Re: john03]
      #22157 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:31 PM

here it comes

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: cool pic [Re: john03]
      #22158 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:31 PM

Check out updated track....across Brevard county!! 5 PM weather underground....can this be right....is only 4:30!

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WXMAN RICHIE
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Re: Landfall? [Re: Redbird]
      #22159 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:31 PM

This is an email I received around 2 pm, I hope he's not right for my sake.

It looks to me that many Meteorologists and the NHC are being led around by the daily changes in the GFS model. In the past 24 hours the NHC/TPC has moved the Florida landfall northward to West Palm Beach, then Melbourne and now Jacksonville. I can't say I ever remember a direct strike to Jacksonville or even Savannah for that matter. The most consistent model day to day has been the ECMWF which forecasts a Miami to Tampa Bay track.

I still think a CAT 4 SE Florida coast hurricane strike is our best bet, somewhere around a Miami-Fort Lauderdale window. However a Palm Beach landfall is possible. Why?

A factor for a more northerly landfall at Palm Beach may be that a piece of the front currently stationary over the deep SE may break away and linger. I considered this idea last week as a possible source of a home grown Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone. But his idea is not originally mine as it might apply to "Frances" but is certainly possible and important so I feel it important to mention it.

One thing that lingers in the back of mind though is this. What are the chances of a CAT 4 hurricane strike to both coasts of South Florida in one hurricane season? Or for that matter in 3 weeks.


Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Site Performance [Re: Ricreig]
      #22160 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:32 PM

Quote:

Mike, not only are you a at *least* a fair to middlin' weather prognosticator, but your programming skills are quite evident.I know, before I retired to start teaching, I *was* a programmer for Lockheed Martin for many years... I recognize good work when I see it.

Having said that, you don't control the reliability of power, the backbone and the like, so like a generator backs up power, when needed, alternate sites are still a good idea, IHMO. I've been a fan of this site since you started about '95 or so, and keep coming back here, not because of 'hype' but because of performance value. Even if I have to use a backup, I'll be back, and I'll bet a lot of others have similar views. You needn't worry about competition, the service you offer is A-1 in my book. Keep up the good work!




I am a programmer, that's what I do for a living. Currently doing financial work, but have done programming ranging from Aerospace Engineering to PC Games. Although I'm working in Virginia currenly, I'm tying to get a job back in Florida though.

There is an entire site redesign I've been working on most of the year with some help and I hoped to have it ready by now, but I think I'll tweak it some more (with experience from Charley and Frances) and throw it up for next season.

Frances is certainly a challenge, it's so easy to say "it'll go right" but every time I think it will, something else makes me doubt it.


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Colleen A.
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Re: here latest color sat [Re: john03]
      #22161 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:33 PM

THAT is an awesome picture.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Redbird
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Re: Landfall? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22162 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:34 PM

I got a posse of kids too and all that goes with it. I have some experience with Floyd thru my dad who was out here on business than..............same scenario as now but again uncertainty as to what will happen.

I got hurricanitis or is it just tired of all my son's friends here?

Back on topic---------------when do you think we will more definitive answers?


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Colleen A.
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Re: cool pic [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #22163 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:35 PM

Steve...you'll find out at 5pm. I imagine they get info and feed it in as fast as they can. Now, get outside and run a few laps.

--------------------
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Steve hirschb.
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Re: cool pic [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22164 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:37 PM

Colleen, I have the new 5PM track map in my hand!!

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john03
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Re: here latest color sat....MoV [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22165 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:38 PM

here' the mov file that goes with sat shot....i would recommend high-speed internet connection...and a mov player (windows media or quicktime player)

sat mov file


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Clark
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Re: cool pic [Re: john03]
      #22166 - Tue Aug 31 2004 04:39 PM

They've turned on the 1 minute rapid-scan GOES-12 imagery on Frances and there's some really cool stuff coming out of it right now. Remember the little vortices we saw inside of Isabel last year? Frances has 'em now too, about 4-5 depending on when you look. Don't recall the address, but it's from UWisc.

Cloud pattern got organized a bit faster than I thought, leading to an increase in strength. 5pm pressure is 939mb -- and for those interested, Lixion Avila is doing the 5pm. The storm is moving much further west and much faster than originally anticipated, meaning landfall is now in the 4 day window as opposed to near 5 days. NHC 5pm brings the storm up to 130kt, then levels it off a bit to 115kt before landfall near St. Augustine in 96-108hr. The storm then moves NW to just east of Valdosta, GA.

The track is slowly bending more left...as the upper low to the west retrogrades further and weakens, as it is doing now, I think we'll see it come a bit back further to the west with time as well.

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Rasvar
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