Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 70 (Nate) , Major: 88 (Maria) Florida - Any: 98 (Irma) Major: 98 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | (show all)
richiesurfs
Unregistered




Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: Mozart]
      #26562 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:42 PM

I agree... but I thought the way that the dicussion was written Stewart said their forecasted track was to the right of the model guidance so I took that to mean that they had already factored that in. 5pm should be interesting

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
anyone wanna know what 160 mph wind feels like? [Re: AgentB]
      #26563 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:42 PM

Driving back from Nashville, I stuck my arm out at 90 MPH...and tried to hold it...no problem...but it was really something...then I thought about what 160 might be like...woulda tore my arm OFF...

In answer to LI Phil's question..if it goes east, I will not worry much...the marina and my boat can handle cat 1-2 storms. However...

from mid cat 3 and above, the exponential energy and devastation makes the prudent person bid a farewell, and leave.

I would stay in a well built house during a 3...but anything greater than that is a real test of your nerves....plus..I haven't experienced any hurricane past a strong 3...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Thomas at midday [Re: LI Phil]
      #26564 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:44 PM

At 12:15 pm EDT it looks like Hurricane Ivan is finally on a NW track that will probably graze the western end of Cuba.

What do I think? No change here. I'm pretty sure that I'm the only Meteorologist that does not buy the westward track between New Orleans and Pensacola. I still predict a landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. And if you read the 11:00 am EDT NHC/TPC forecast discussion on Ivan you can see that they realize a much further east landfall track is still possible.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Thomas at midday [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #26566 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:48 PM

323
URNT12 KNHC 131954
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/19:32:40Z
B. 21 deg 03 min N
084 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 335 deg 124 kt
G. 235 deg 015 nm
H. 912 mb
I. 10 C/ 3355 m
J. 18 C/ 3341 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 WXWXA 040913IVAN OB 14
MAX FL WIND 157 KT NE QUAD 18:42:00 Z

Down to 912 MB


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26567 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:49 PM

Quote:

The GFDL, UKMET, and GFS were run at 8am this morning. The BAMM was run at 2pm this afternoon.The NOGAPS is from 8pm last night and it has consistently been west. Thats not that old.for any of them except maybe the NOGAPS. i believe Jason has said he feels it is coming up to his area basically. I hope he's wrong because I have family there but i sure don't want to see this hit anyone.
Quote:

One thing to remember as you look at 12Z model data. DON'T. The models initialized with a WNW motion, but he made the turn to the NW or NNW about the time of the runs, so the models are all a bit (or a lot) too far west right now. --------------------
Jason Kelley
Chief Meteorologist
WJHG-TV, Panama City Beach, FL









I'm not disagreeing with the landfall, I'm merely saying that the models on weather underground are inaccurate since they were run with the wrong initial motion. I understand your worry, I have family in Mobile so I'm a bit worried as well, but I'm just waiting for the 5pm update to see their take on it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: tenavilla]
      #26568 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:50 PM

Conehead Alert. South Florida int he cone again. Isnt this a blast.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richiesurfs
Unregistered




Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: AgentB]
      #26569 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:51 PM

I agree the gulf is going to get some awesome surf from this thing. I have friends who are driving over there (west coast) tomorrow to get some of it. It's kinda funny though ...when I was younger all I cared about was the surf but now, while I still want the waves from them, it's kinda hard to get fired up about something that is going to potentially screw alot of people up especially family...just comes with getting older i guess.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
NNW [Re: jlauderdal]
      #26570 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:52 PM

Officially NNW at 5 pm.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: LI Phil]
      #26571 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:53 PM

Quote:

Fletch,

Welcome to the boards...however, before making a statement like you just made, it might behoove you to go back and read some of the older material.

This board is professionally run, and most people are here to exchange information. With a very few notable exceptions , no one ever claims to be an expert, especially the several mets who post here.

Enjoy the forums and we welcome your constructive input!

Cheers




Sorry. Certainly didn't intend on trashing the forum. I have been reading this forum through the 04 season. I think you guys do a great job monitoring and editing when nec. For the most part, the information here is exc. The fact that so many true experts participate, really says something. My statement was meant to say "wait for a trend". We all spend "too" much of our time looking at loops and data. Sometimes, when the storms get close, our emotions confuse our eyes and brains. Keep up the good work!!

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: NNW [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #26572 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:53 PM

New thred started

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mozart
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: jlauderdal]
      #26573 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:54 PM

These tracks are getting scary:
Charley=Ivan
Jeanne=Frances

I'm getting Deja Vu all over again...

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Thomas at midday [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26574 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:55 PM

twc draws a line on latest sat. pics the latest show a n. maybe nne track. just look.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richiesurfs
Unregistered




Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: tenavilla]
      #26575 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:55 PM

Thats why he still thinks its coming in there and not Miss/lousiana which those runs are kinda showing...ok

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: Mozart]
      #26576 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:56 PM

I still think Ivan will miss the peninsula, but not by much--it now appears by looking at satellite and WV images that the landfall could be just west of Cedar Key

as for not-so-soon-to-be Jeanne (if it isnt sheared to a wave before strengthening), it will not exceed Cat I if it hits the state at all


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: accuwx track...rick better have the boat on dry land 2 states away [Re: Fletch]
      #26577 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:56 PM

THE ANGLE IS CLOSER TO 320-325 FOR ABOUT TWO HOURS...but the dir in the 5pm will remain NW...if that dir continues until 8p. then we can expect a change. What's significant about it is that it would show stronger than predicted influences of weather systems to its north and west.
Fletch if you want to rely only on the NHC that is very good advice, nobody here is attempting to replace the NHC. But we are engaging in some educated speculation. When you have hung around this board for 4-5 years as I have you'll see that some of the opinions expressed here actually precede what NHC actually goes public with by several hours, not because it's not occurring and they don't see it but because they have public responsibilities that we here don't have. This is a private board and we engage in private discussion for the edification and entertainment of the users.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Back to the Keys?? [Re: Takingforever]
      #26619 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:44 PM

I gotta say this. Panic is never productive and that is what I have seen this season, PANIC. I wrote "Disaster Planning for Country Property" in conjunction with the American Red Cross and EOC's across the state after Andrew and I know what I'm talking about. I'm a horse trainer and a few days ago I was getting calls from people I didn't even know who were bouncing off the walls. Where can I take my horses? Where can I borrow a horse trailer, etc, etc. For instance, a friend left for Tallahassee on Thursday with his prize APHA stallion. Wonder where he is now?! We all need to have a DISASTER PLAN prepared every spring. And we need to keep our heads. That doesn't mean we disrespect these storms, far from it. But three days ahead of the storm is not the time to try to accomplish what we should have done in May. It means we use our heads and don't run around like a bunch of cockroaches when somebody turns on the light. Am I sick of implementing my disaster plan? You bet. But Charlie went right over my head as a Cat 4 and 16 horses and I are alive and unhurt. Do I want to go thru that kind of experience again? Not in this life. But we simply must learn, for example, that storm shutters are not something to think about aquiring in August with a Cat 5 bearing down on us. They should be cut and ready to hang. I'm not trying to scold anyone, only to trying to get folks (like me) who choose to live were they are vulnerable to these storms to understand they are a fact of life and we have to BE PREPARED.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD! [Re: Sadie]
      #26620 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:47 PM

Mike threw up a new thread almost an hour ago...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
storm chaser
Unregistered




Re: NEW THREAD! [Re: LI Phil]
      #26758 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:14 PM

Quote:

Mike threw up a new thread almost an hour ago...




I was reading the comments all day and had to take a break. Can you tell me where we stand now? I am just really worried for the people in the keys. I have friends there and also in Tampa. This thing could do anyting right now. Is Cuba going to get hit?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 52 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 111204

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center