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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
      #26565 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:48 PM

7:15 Update

Ivan threads the needle and avoids a direct landfall on Cuba, the eye is now partially in the Gulf.

Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen

The City of New Orleans, LA is under a voluntary evacuation now. NO Prep Guide, Jefferson Parish, LA. (Links to other EM sites and event related links for possibly affected areas are welcome)

Other counties, such as Gulf County, in Florida are starting evacuations now. See local media for details. (Gratuitous Link to JKs WJHG7 here (Panama City Beach,FL))

5:15PM Update
Recon has found 910mb pressure since the 5PM advisory. It's still a strong Category 5 storm.

Original Update
Tropical Depression Eleven has formed East of the Leeward islands,. A tropical storm warning is up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Watches are up for the British Virgin Islands, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Marteen.

Hurricane Ivan is moving more northward now--to the North Northwest-- and should barely clip the extreme western end of Cuba. It's moving North Northwest now, which means its track north is underway.

Hurricane watches may go up along the northeastern gulf coast late tonight.



The future track still has it making landfall in the Florida Panhandle, and if anything, now I think it would trend further east than anything. That means that the West coast of Florida is still not in the clear. I think the models are, for once, too far left. It seems like the National Hurricane Center has a pretty good handle on it now. Although it depends on if Ivan continues to move or if it slows down in the gulf.

More to come later...

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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
TD#11 Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures


General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from Mid Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #26578 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:59 PM

Interesting portion of the 5pm NHC advisory:


>>>At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 21.3 north...longitude 84.9 west or about 30 miles...
45 km...south of the western tip of Cuba.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
However...a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight
or early Tuesday morning<<<<<<<<<


Sounds like they are thinking the hurricane is not going to continue a recurve....

--Lou


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #26579 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:59 PM

ODD, but the official track shifted back west a little?????? Haven't seen the discussion, but am curious.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Hurricane Winds [Re: MikeC]
      #26580 - Mon Sep 13 2004 04:59 PM

Hurricane force winds now out 115 miles and T.S. winds out 220 miles. Not only a monster storm but getting larger and larger.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #26581 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:01 PM

Thanks for the new thread, Mike. Appreciate it greatly.

It looks to me like Ivan's speeding up and turning north. It doesn't look to be like a job on satellite, though the NHC did a nice job of covering by saying they expect Ivan to go back to NW later tonight.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI0_wv_loop.html

Edited by ShaggyDude (Mon Sep 13 2004 05:02 PM)


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26582 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:04 PM

mobile now has highest percentage at any given point in time.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26583 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:04 PM

Looking at wunderground's graphic...SCARY. Landfalling as a CAT IV and remaining a CAT II that far inland...holy you know what.

As someone said on the previous thread, if it hasn't already, the excrement will soon be hitting the wind blowing device!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: LI Phil]
      #26584 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:06 PM

Has the discussion come out? I can't find it.

I am curious why with the NNW movement that they shifted the track back west again.

Actually if you look at the newest models, they had the NNW movement, but continue it for quite a while and even (as suggested by NHC) go back NW. They are very tightly cludtered now on the MS/AL/FL borders.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: jth]
      #26585 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:07 PM

Yeah, I thought it was me.

But it looks like Stacy's writing it, so we should become much better informed momentarily...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: LI Phil]
      #26586 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:08 PM

Must be a real in depth discussion.......
waiting to see what he thinks


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: jth]
      #26587 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:09 PM

Quote:

Has the discussion come out? I can't find it.

I am curious why with the NNW movement that they shifted the track back west again.




Maybe because the advisory says it will go back to the NW??? No clue... come on discussion.... I have to go take my son to gymnastics now....

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
This hurricane is getting on my nerves [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26588 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:09 PM

Latest 4 models show a nice loop into our area. Baldwin County schools, just across the bay are closing, and even our dealership is starting to hunker down. This will be a bad storm, I am afraid. a bad one..

my boat, a 34' Marine Trader trawler....is toast....if this thing hits....

but more than that...what about the people along the coast?...

Hurricane Fred came in a low tide in '79, and downtown Mobile had 8' of water....

ominous thoughts...25' of water...wipe this place out...


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: jth]
      #26589 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:11 PM

MOBILE AL X 1 14 4 19
GULFPORT MS X 2 13 5 20
BURAS LA X 6 12 3 21

I read Buras La has the highest, Gulfport 2nd and Mobile 3rd... albeit not much difference in the three...

does any one have a link to the updated track???


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: jth]
      #26590 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:12 PM

Well, regardless what the models are saying right now. It wasnt supposed to go n or nnw until it passed cooooba and it has started that early, it wasnt going to be that far west but it is. I think that just like Frances, we are going to have to take a wait and see approach with it. It could very well take a hard left and go to mexico just as well as it could come to Fl. Lets see what direction it is going after coooba cause it could stall it out some and change everything.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: LI Phil]
      #26591 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:13 PM

It been moving moreless NW with a turn to the NNW so they are saying NNW but dont expect that to continue. Reason they have the track about the same or slightly west is cause they run the 5pm tracks off the 12Z runs of the models..Now like Jason says,,,lets see if the models initialize Ivan with the current NNW movement,, if so, and they turn it more N then NNE or NE it might be earlier before landfall. In that case the NHC will see those 18Z runs and use them for the 11pm forcast path. Everyone with me? So generally 12Z was 8am with the models, then NHC uses its path in general with the models from the previous runs which was 12Z.

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spook
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: Frank P]
      #26592 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:13 PM

Buras has the highest because it the most south

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: Frank P]
      #26593 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:14 PM

I was actually talking about the point in time that they expect landfall. Mobile has highest at 14%. like you said not much difference from many other places. Kind of just a joke actually.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: This hurricane is getting on my nerves [Re: rickonboat]
      #26594 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:16 PM

Rick,

There's no way you can take the boat out of the water? It will probably be on dry land at some point anyway.

Seriously, though, all thoughts and prayers are squarely with you now...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Rick, you might be the man of the hour... [Re: rickonboat]
      #26595 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:16 PM

I know this has got to be killing you.... but we've always known it was a possibility, now its almost a reality for you... I have several family members in Mobile... hey, my brother is named Rick too.... hehe

He'll be panicking big time tonight.... things can and do change, hopefully it will go to the east of you... nothing personal panhandle folks... but I got to much personal interest in Mobile...

this will be an intense week for many of us...


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: scottsvb1]
      #26596 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:16 PM

Quote:

It been moving moreless NW with a turn to the NNW so they are saying NNW but dont expect that to continue. Reason they have the track about the same or slightly west is cause they run the 5pm tracks off the 12Z runs of the models..Now like Jason says,,,lets see if the models initialize Ivan with the current NNW movement,, if so, and they turn it more N then NNE or NE it might be earlier before landfall. In that case the NHC will see those 18Z runs and use them for the 11pm forcast path. Everyone with me? So generally 12Z was 8am with the models, then NHC uses its path in general with the models from the previous runs which was 12Z.




Scott, are you quoting yourself now? LOL. This thing is making us all nuts.

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Sep 13 2004 05:19 PM)


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