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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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erauwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28359 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:36 PM

Here in Daytona Beach, my school - Embry-Riddle decided to cancel school all week this week .... the decision was made last Friday (Sept 10) ... and we all see where the hurricane went, right? Having already missed 11 days of the semester (which we aren't making up, btw) ... I wouldn't be suprised if they just add a few more days off next week with the possibility of Jeanne threating the FL coastline .... talk about jittery ......


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sue in kuwait
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #28360 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:39 PM

Hello all..new here. Watched Ivan on its trek, God bless all those affected. Now watching Jeanne. My family is in SC while I am in Kuwait supporting the Coalition Forces. I hope Jeanne spares the SE coast. Bless all of you for keeping this site informative and updated. I appreciate it!

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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: AgentB]
      #28361 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:40 PM

I don't think thats off topic at all. I feel it totally relates to what is being discussed here. What these newspeople say and do has a big effect on people who could be making decisions in potentially life threating situations.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #28362 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:40 PM

Great I cant find my post from what I was projecting on Jeanne.......I know I posted it here and on another site. Oh well maybe phil can find it. Anyways really its just a update from the other day. Its funny that I totally agree with JB on this forcast. Thing is its going to be weakend down to 60mph, or less, until it finally comes off the coast of Haiti and then scrap Cuba with just enough n component to strength slowly. Georges anyone????? Thing is we dont know what can happen really. First off if anyone remember my post the other day I said there is 2-3 scenerios with Jeanne. We all agree that it skims the coast of Hispaniola and is just s of the turks, and ene of Cuba and n of Port au Prince by Friday morning. Now Global models want to take this north to 30N and 75W by Sunday afternoon. Its saying that there is a weakness over florida up to Ivan remenents. (Could be), but I dont think its that far east and also Ivan will be retrogratiing w or wsw back into Tenn by Sunday as a very strong ridge dives down into the midatlantic states. This would still cause Jeanne to move w or wnw slowly into Daytona-Jacksonville area by Tuesday. 2nd scenerio is (what I feel) it continue just n of due w along the Cuban coast ( just north of there) and just south of Abaco isle, Bah by Sat even. The weakness will be further w and slowly beginning to push more w,,although a turn to the NW will be expected and it will be nearing the Keys or extreme Se Florida. Now does it go up the east coast of Florida or west coast before a turn on the west coast up w-central and bend more w with the ridge to the NE towards La? Or does it skim the keys and head out into the central gulf,,,,that is more then 5 days out. So right now I have it just south of Abaco Island, Bahamas on my 3 day track. Intensity is too hard to pinpoint as to how much it will get disrupted over Hispaniola. After that right now its up in the air.
Ivan forcast was 25-40miles to the west of his landfall.Very good for 4-5 days out forcast from last Saturday. Winds 125-130mph called for as Cat 3. NHC had it still as cat 4 on theyre projection but they didnt included in theyre thoughts of the dry air coming in on the west side as I saw weakning the system some. I hope everyone is recovering from this dangerous storm.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Jeanne [Re: erauwx]
      #28363 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:41 PM

Well looks like Jeanne could be holding her own over DR. Certainly shows signs of continuing to slowly organise. The core is actually quite small, but not as small as yesterday. Should hold her own as she crosses the land mass, then probably restrengthen over water. I think she will be a Florida threat down the road, with more of a westward motion than currently forecast.

Also noticed in the latest TWO that they will probably start advisories on TD 12 later today. Its located southwest of the Azores and is well organised.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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staggy
Unregistered




Re: next up? [Re: erauwx]
      #28364 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:41 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORMING ABOUT ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON
ON THIS SYSTEM.


time to move to Montana. er, no hurricanes there right?


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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce... 29.33N 83.09W
Re: Pensacola? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28365 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:46 PM

Hi All,
I'm new to the site having discovered it during Frances and have been observing and learning ever since.

A friend with family in P-cola spoke with them this AM and the news wasn't too good. Couple of family members are unaccounted for. A lot of homes with major damage and/or no roofs. Trees and and power lines down all over blocking some people in their homes. Curfew put on, telling people to stay safe and stay put. From what she's heard they're in pretty rough shape. Nat'l Guard is already there to help, but can't get across the river due to the damaged bridge. Hopefully somebody has enough sense to get those boys a helicopter or a couple of boats?
Anybody with any other news?

--------------------
The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay 28.32N 80.77W
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28366 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:48 PM

Quote:

EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Wait Wait..I THINK i got this one!!! I think I remember my son talking about this when he was in the EarthCam program. You let your computers idle time be used to crunch figures for the big program?? I believe there have been several successful programs of this nature.

(jumping up and down...I got one!! I got one!!!)




--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
scottsvb... [Re: scottsvb]
      #28367 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:52 PM

>>> Great I cant find my post from what I was projecting on Jeanne.......I know I posted it here and on another site. Oh well maybe phil can find it.

Sorry, scott...I'm not lookin' back at them posts no more

Besides, what you said after that was great. Saturday will be the day we know where she wants to go...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: scottsvb... [Re: LI Phil]
      #28368 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:55 PM

http://www.fhp.state.fl.us/traffic/crs_h002.htm

Bye all


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28369 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:55 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Punta Gorda within the cone of probability when Charley turned toward the coast?

I think when you are prediciting a point of landfall along the coast line when the storm is moving on a diagonal path along the coastline is extremely difficult.

I think the NHC's only fault was not recognizing the turn soon enough.
The local Mets had the turn pegged a couple of hours before NHC put out th word.


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zmdz
Unregistered




Navarre [Re: LI Phil]
      #28370 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:56 PM

Has anyone heard on the condition of the homes around Navarre? An earlier post mentioned Santa Rosa Island being under water.

Thank you for your help.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: Rich B]
      #28371 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:57 PM

I agree that Jeanne is indicating the same tendencies as Ivan. with regard to it's evident predisposition to continuously trend south and west of the NHC forecasts...

I tried to point that out with Ivan several times, noting that New Orleans was at risk, even before Ivan rounded Cuba...

Jeanne is doing the same thing... THE NHC has continued to adjust its track west with each update, and Jeanne is already farther south (again) than the latest projected path... cutting straight west across the DR, rather than turning WNW as predicted...

West, west, west... yet again... somebody needs to tweak their models...


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JackF
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #28372 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:58 PM

FYI The cab of the truck in the photo is missing, apparantly it's underwater... with the driver still in it.

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: tpratch]
      #28373 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:58 PM

Quote:

Quote:


EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Sure thing

I'll translate using smaller non-technical words for the computer illiterate...
(not necessarily you, Phil - although I haven't been lurking long enough to know )


A distributed computer model would basically use thousands of personal computers to analyze pieces of the data. Because there would be so many computers working on the data and sending the results back home to NOAA, it is possible that even the most complex models could be run in minutes instead of hours.

Of course, such a system would allow the models to become increasingly more complex (and hopefully more accurate). As the popularity of the program would soar, hundreds of thousands or even millions of folks would help get really complex computer models done quickly.

This would (in theory) mean greater understanding and therefore better forecasting .

I have a cluster I'd offer to the cause if such a creature is ever created





Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: Intro [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28374 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:05 PM

Being new here I figured I'd introduce myself. I've been tracking storms (being a native of south Florida) since I was about 10 (40 now). I remember the pre-internet (and home computer and cable TV) days where all we had to go on was what we were told on local TV and tracking was done on a paper map. We've come a long way in the past few years. Now we can see just about everything the NHC uses for thier forecasts and have the tools to come up with our own.

I was introduced to this site (from a post on a fishing forum) a week or so ago and have been reading every post since. Its nice to see what others are thinking to compare what I've come up with.

Tom


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28375 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:05 PM

Punta Gorda may have been within the cone when Charley turned. I have been told not to trust anything in the GOM because it is so difficult to predict. However, Charley turned quickly and at the same time, strengthened from a 2 to a 4. All of the local mets called it a good while before the NHC. At least, that was my recollection. I think that this season's storms have really shown that despite all of the technology, it's just not easy to predict where hurricanes will go, especially several days in advance. I will always err on the side of caution.

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Intro [Re: Staggy]
      #28376 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:11 PM

Quote:

Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?




Using whatever verification codes (MD5 or the like) you want, you can maintain the integrity of the data. Seti does it, in fact, I believe most of them do.

Step one - NOAA gets its data (in the best-case scenario) continuously. They have a cluster which crunches that data and splits it up into chunks.

Step 2
Basically, a checksum is derived at the source (in this case NOAA) of each outgoing packet. Algorithms that create such a creature are plentiful and fairly efficient.

Step 3
Users download their chunks and their desktop client receives a checksum with them. The client verifies the integrity of the chunks and then processes things.

Step 4

The client finishes processing, creates a new checksum and packages the results - sending them back to NOAA and grabbing more chunks.

Step E
NOAA verifies the new checksum, verifies data and then clears the chunk from the "expected" or "to-be-processed" list.

Wash hands and repeat as necessary

But (since I tend to give rather circumspect answers) - yes, you could rather easily maintain security/integrity of the outgoing and incoming data through any number of existing methods.


Edited because I grabbed the wrong quote

Further edited to expound upon my earlier statement.

Edited by tpratch (Thu Sep 16 2004 02:17 PM)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: KC]
      #28377 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:12 PM

I'm really getting tired of the NHC taking heat for Charley. The bottom line is, Was there a Hurricane Warning in place? If yes, then you should expect the full brunt of the storm. The local media wanted to focus on Tampa because it would have been a huge disaster. Not that the people in the Punta Gorda area didn't suffer a disaster.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28378 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:19 PM

Totally true!

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