LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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BTW, did anyone check out the model forecast verification feature from wunderground?
Ivan
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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talk about right bias... geesh
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Brad
Unregistered
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Although no eye, looks like recon did find closed circulation - so it has survived, so far.
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STORM CHASER
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Where did you find the recon data? Recent data.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Ok, I have one question. Who was drinking when they ran some of those models? Give me a couple hours and I'll be in great shape to post my own that looks like that...lol.
And I don't think many of the models saw Jeanne getting smacked around like she has when they made their forecasts. In fact, most of the ones I saw had her skirting the coast of Hispaniola, losing some strength, but continuing to push on. Looks to me like she tracked too far south along the island and got whacked pretty good. Though on the latest sat loop you can see the circulation spinning out from under the t-storms. I've even attached a nice little picture.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 17 2004 07:51 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I'd go with the 'Circle of Doom'. I do believe in the track; I justify that because Hispaniola did not put Jeanne in her bottle; she is uncorked and well postured to regaining some strength- On to the Bahamas!
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Well, I don't think that we should have to pay for forecasts either, but you also get what you pay for. I am by far not a meteorologist, but based on what I've observed this and past seasons and applying it to current storms, here's my forecast.
Ivan - I think will continue to dump incredible amounts of rain as he circles around to the right to almost a full 360 turn back into western Georgia. He will continue to die out as any sort of organized storm in the process.
Jeanne - I think she will make it off the coast of Hispaniola and begin to reform the circle of convection around the eye. As this strengthing occurs, she will speed up. I disagree with the that the turn to the west will be so abrupt. I think it will be a wide arc with landfall around the same place as with 50 mile margin of error either north or south, depending on how long hangs out in GA and how fast the high over Florida erodes.
Karl - as for Karl, I hope Nemo has some Advil, cuz Karl's gonna give them fishies a headache.
Going out on a limb here, but I also think we will see another organized system beginning by the middle of next week.
I'll share those crow recipes with you later tpratch :-).
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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Brad
Unregistered
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There are lots of places to find it - site (nhc.noaa.gov, hit recon link at upper left) usually has the data pretty quickly. I've found net-waves.com/weather is often quicker and lists it more conveniently (i.e., a list of each observation you can read). Other sites have it, and some may be quicker or better, but with those 2 you should be able to find it pretty quickly.
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The latest IR loop of Jeanne is interesting. It looks like there is convection multiplying exponentially on the north side of Hispaniola all the way to the west of the system. There also appeas to be a center of circulation within that area of high convection to the south of the island as well.
Any other thoughts?
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South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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Brad
Unregistered
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Sorry to post yet again....now that recon has found a closed center, I'd be surprised if the didn't keep Jeanne as at least a depression. But looking at the storm, I was wondering if she hadn't been classified earlier, whether the would make her a depression now? The convection is pretty far removed from the LLC - I think it'd be a debatable call. I don't think there's any question but that for the sake of continuity, the wouldn't downgrade now...but I do think it's a subjective call at this point.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I am going to come out and say this. I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. I've never seen something that looks like it comes out of a random number generator like this situation. I think I will pretty much ignore all forecasts for 24 hours and then see what happens with a new slate.
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Jim
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Brad
Unregistered
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Kdubs and I chose same names for our posts...
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> I am going to come out and say this. I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen.
Forecaster Franklin at 5:00
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Kdubs and I chose same names for our posts...
That's rather eerie, isn't it, Brad?
(Insert Twilight Zone music here). This hurricane season continues to weirden (my new word for the day) with each passing day.
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South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
I am going to come out and say this. I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. I've never seen something that looks like it comes out of a random number generator like this situation. I think I will pretty much ignore all forecasts for 24 hours and then see what happens with a new slate.
If every meteorologist were completely honest, this is all they would be able to say for just about every storm. The only thing that seems to remain constant is that these storms that Africa so generously donates to the Atlantic ocean never seem to swing around and go back home. It's like a suicide mission - Kamikaze hurricanes.
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South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Why is Karl's info over there
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Gaston? Just curious! 
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Quote:
I guess all that remains is to post this. Anyone have any crow recipies handy - you know, just in case? 
Crow and Mushroom Stew
3 crows
1 Tbsp lard/shortening
1 pint stock or gravy
2 Tbsp cream
1/2 cup mushrooms
salt and pepper
cayenne pepper
Clean and cut crows into small portions and let them cook a short time in the lard/shortening in a saucepan, being careful not to brown them.
Next, add to the contents of the pan, the stock or gravy, and salt, pepper and cayenne to taste.
Simmer 1 hour, or until tender, add mushrooms, simmer 10 minutes more and then stir in cream.
Arrange the mushrooms around the crows on a hot platter.
Enjoy! 
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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i was looking at your signature...... do you think you will have -2 or 3s
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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In keeping with the posting theme,
Jeanne again
She's got a long way to go to regain her convection, but she's a cyclops again...make it all go away please.
Should be a MOST interesting 5:00 discussion...anyone know who gets the "honors".? Gotta hope for Stacy because at least then we might have some semblance of an idea of where this whole thing is going...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
Quote:
I guess all that remains is to post this. Anyone have any crow recipies handy - you know, just in case?
Crow and Mushroom Stew
3 crows
1 Tbsp lard/shortening
1 pint stock or gravy
2 Tbsp cream
1/2 cup mushrooms
salt and pepper
cayenne pepper
Clean and cut crows into small portions and let them cook a short time in the lard/shortening in a saucepan, being careful not to brown them.
Next, add to the contents of the pan, the stock or gravy, and salt, pepper and cayenne to taste.
Simmer 1 hour, or until tender, add mushrooms, simmer 10 minutes more and then stir in cream.
Arrange the mushrooms around the crows on a hot platter.
Enjoy!
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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