Another day, Another storm - FLHurricane.com

Going into Friday the 17th a new 2004 storm has joined the ranks of it's fellows.. Karl is now a tropical storm in the Eastern Atlantic. Karl is officially progged to reach Category 2 status, but I'll take a less than brave step on a limb and call for it to be a major hurricane by Monday. Fortunately modeling unanimously recurves it well out to sea.. which would make it the first storm since Danielle back in mid-August to not threaten any major land areas.
Unfortunately the other two active systems.. Ivan and Jeanne, are both still significant threats to the Southeastern United States. Ivan has weakened to a depression as of the last advisory, but is forecast to make a sweeping anticyclonic loop over the interior South during the weekend.. a dire flooding threat exists in many locations from Alabama north and eastward.. but especially to the mountains of North Georgia up to Western Virginia. There will likely be historic flooding in many locations in this area.
Jeanne is still several days away, but forecast modeling has been consistently taking it to the Southeastern U.S. Right now it is still drenching Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, maintaing a fair degree of organization as it traverses the northern coast of the latter... the storm is officially forecast to move northwestward through the Bahamas over the weekend while reintensifying to a hurricane--it's terminal forecast track is aimed at Georgia and South Carolina right now, but that could change. Late in the forecast period Jeanne will likely lose it's northward component due to a strengthening ridge, and hit the coast while traveling mostly westward. We'll know more this weekend when the results of Jeanne's current interaction with land and the forecast weakening of the ridge due to Ivan are apparent. Jeanne is a small storm that has the ability to rapidly deepen, if conditions warrant.. the current forecast intensity is probably on the conservative side.
The U.S. has been under hurricane threat for much of the last three weeks.. and has already taken two major hits and two category two impacts so far this year (along with a pair of tropical storms and a weakening T.D. Hermine). The Atlantic right now shows no sign of halting the parade of new systems. But a light may be shining for early October.. the quiet MJO phase in the Western Pacific will make it to our side of the world around then.
Until then, stay aware.
HF

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Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 17 2004 12:47 AM)

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