Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2020 and runs until November 30th, 2020.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 91 (Dorian) , Major: 422 (Michael) Florida - Any: 422 (Michael) Major: 422 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4239
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
      #30382 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:56 PM

Tropical Storm Ivan has made landfall... again... on the Lousiana coastline near the Texas border. It's expected to meander and be a major rain producer for Texas. There is a chance Ivan will move back into the Gulf again like a bad horror flick.



This is a map based of the National Hurricane Center, do not focus on the center of the track errors may be large

Thanks Skeetobite

Jeanne, the one Florida is concerned with, is on the high end of the Category 2 scale and has made it's move, now toward the west northwest. The tremendous ridge to the north of it should keep it moving west, and maybe more southward as time goes on. The new 5PM Track takes it deeper into Florida, and landfalling near where Frances did. I still expect it (as of now) to be no higher than category 2 when it makes landfall, but the storm may get to Category 3 in the water before then. Therefore there is a chance it that Jeanne may be another major hurricane landfalling in Florida (lets hope not).

The forecast track is very uncertain, since the National Hurricane Center is suggesting not to focus on the exact track (which I agree, especially out more than 36 hours) I will as well.


Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Ivan Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move [Re: MikeC]
      #30383 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:57 PM

Ivan is reminding me of that freak on Friday the 13th who just could not be terminated.................all we need is for Ivan to pick up his hat and come back to us.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move [Re: Redbird]
      #30390 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:07 PM

Jeanne...Palm bay....ugh

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
heidib
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Jupiter, Florida
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #30396 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:23 PM

Hi all. I have been lurking since before Frances and finally registered. Went without electricity for 11 days after Frances, so not looking forward to this weekend. You guys have been such a fantastic source of information. Have heard that gas stations and grocery stores around here already have long lines. Glad everyone is taking this seriously.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ChiBride
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move [Re: MikeC]
      #30397 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:29 PM

Enough is enough!!!! I have been on your website ever since Frances, checking again and again.And again and again. I'm getting married in FWB next month and Frances has already KO'd my honeymoon spot, Ivan nearly ruined my wedding so Im glued to your site for the latest info. I don't know how you guys handle this!

GO AWAY Ivan, GET LOST JEANNE!!!

You guys and gals have been a FANTASTIC source of info...stay safe and keep up the good work!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Same time, same place, same cane channel??? [Re: heidib]
      #30398 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:34 PM

Another borderline cat2/3 storm on a Saturday night near Stuart??? Can it be?? Is this batman or would that be catwoman?

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel??? [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30399 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:39 PM

Same bat time, same bat channel, same bat cave, just same everything...

like Frances all over again for Florida, except perhaps, heavens forbid, a little stronger... without the GOM touch

I sure am glad I cancelled my Disney World Vacation scheduled for Sat through Thur of next week...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel??? [Re: Frank P]
      #30400 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:44 PM

Yup SSDD also sums it up.........................oh and all the family togetherness induced by being secluded in the house does wear thin.................

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Crow Munching Forecast [Re: Redbird]
      #30401 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:45 PM

I posted this in the last thread, but I wanted to throw it out here to anyone who might not have seen it and who might like a laugh at my expense...

Ok, here it is. Please keep in mind that I am not a met, so take this forecast with a grain of salt (which is how I like my crow).

Jeanne will continue on her westward trek towards the Bahamas and Florida for the next 36 hours or so, tracking across Great Abaco Island. During this time, she will strengthen from a CAT II to a CAT III, perhaps getting as strong as 130 mph sustained. After 36 hours, the ridge will be relaxed enough to permit a WNW, then NW turn. By 36 hours, Florida will begin to feel the first effects from Jeanne. This will be approximately 8 am on Saturday morning.

Jeanne will then take the NW trek towards Florida, landfalling somewhere between Ft. Pierce and Cocoa Beach as a CAT III (~125 MPH winds) Sunday morning between 8 and 12 noon. She will go inland, but will begin making a NNW turn while inland; Jeanne will maintain hurricane force winds throughout her trek up the coast line, during which time she will head north and then NNE and exit Florida near the FL/GA border...winds at this time will still be >74, still a minimal hurricane. She will not remain over Florida for more than four hours...

Once in the open Atlantic, Jeanne will increase in forward speed and regain CAT II status on a track that will take her towards the Outer Banks. She will landfall a second time near Cape Lookout with 100 MPH winds, just barely missing Cape Fear on her way. I would expect this to be midday on Monday. She will continue to hug the coast just offshore of the Delmarva and Cape May, NJ as a minimal hurricane. This should be by Monday evening. She will then take a more easterly trek and pass just south of Montauk Point Tuesday morning, still a CAT I, finally barely narrowly missing Cape Cod Tuesday night.

Florida may take quite a whallop as may the Outer Banks, but the main threat will be heavy rains in areas that don't need it, causing serious flooding, and gales all the way up the coast from Cape May through Cape Cod. Surge could be a problem for Florida, but not really a factor anywhere else, but high seas (15'+ waves in some places) will further erode beaches.

-----------------------------------------

Well, there you have it. My first "real" stab at a forecast. It's alot closer to me than I would like it, so that's why it will probably be wrong! I need some new crow recipies which I am sure to get with this one.

Everyone stay safe and pay close attention to the NHC forecasts...they're the only ones to trust...all others should be taken in conjunction with the NHC's.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Florida Nurse
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: St. Augustine, Fl
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move [Re: MikeC]
      #30402 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:48 PM

She's a lot larger than she was even a few hours ago. Our EOC was meeting today. They will probably activate tomorrow if this forecast stays true. Another exciting weekend for everyone........

---Kelly W.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move [Re: Florida Nurse]
      #30403 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:54 PM

I agree with you. Her cloud bands extend out much farther this afternoon than they did this morning. She looks like she's ready to take a much bigger whack at Florida!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anony
Unregistered




Re: Crow Munching Forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #30404 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:57 PM

FOUR Hours...???

ONLY?

Better check that Phil....that's over 30 mph....

sc


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Crow Munching Forecast [Re: Anony]
      #30406 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:00 PM

That's why it's a crow munching forecast...

I may be a couple hours off, but I think the trof that's making mischief in the middle of the country is come by and pick Jeanne up and race her up the coastline...

I'll probably be wrong.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move [Re: MikeC]
      #30407 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:01 PM

Looks like another long weekend at the fire station. My husband is on vacation and is staying home with the kids for this one. I just happen to be on duty Sunday! Lucky me. I'm getting off work in the morning and going home to help my husband put the plywood BACK UP. At least I left them on the ground next to the windows and don't have to trudge them all around the the house to put them back up. Here in Orange Co, we haven't gotten any direction from our fearless leaders yet. I just hope they don't make us drive to work in it like they did with Frances. That was the dumbest thing............
Good Luck everyone! I just happen to live in Sorrento and it looks like the eye should go right over my house.
It will probably finish the trees off that Frances left standing. Oh well, what can I do? Just ride it out.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Crow Munching Forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #30408 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:01 PM

You could be right..................at least u stick to your story.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Crow Munching Forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #30409 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:05 PM

It's Groundhog day again. Gas lines have started, cars pulling into Lowes and Home Depot. How much more can we take here in FL. First a left hook, then a right hook, then a left cross, then another right hook. I'm worried about the late October uppercut through the Keys.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move [Re: FireAng85]
      #30410 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:08 PM

Quote:

Looks like another long weekend at the fire station. My husband is on vacation and is staying home with the kids for this one. I just happen to be on duty Sunday! Lucky me. I'm getting off work in the morning and going home to help my husband put the plywood BACK UP. At least I left them on the ground next to the windows and don't have to trudge them all around the the house to put them back up. Here in Orange Co, we haven't gotten any direction from our fearless leaders yet. I just hope they don't make us drive to work in it like they did with Frances. That was the dumbest thing............
Good Luck everyone! I just happen to live in Sorrento and it looks like the eye should go right over my house.
It will probably finish the trees off that Frances left standing. Oh well, what can I do? Just ride it out.




Hey Angie, thanks for the work that you do. Without you and people like you, Florida wouldn't be able to survive these things.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Terri
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel??? [Re: Frank P]
      #30412 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:11 PM

Quote:

Same bat time, same bat channel, same bat cave, just same everything...

like Frances all over again for Florida, except perhaps, heavens forbid, a little stronger... without the GOM touch

I sure am glad I cancelled my Disney World Vacation scheduled for Sat through Thur of next week...




I couldn't help but chuckle when I heard the official weather forecast for the Georgia coast on Monday: Warm weather and "windy" conditions." That's got to be...um... a bit of an understatement. Even though I do live on a small island, I won't evacuate for a Category 1.

One thing is for sure, Frank. I know what we Georgians will be praying for at Mass this weekend, a MISS. To my neighbors in Florida, I'm so sorry you'll be going through yet another hurricane. You will all be in my prayers, as well.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Official NWS Forecast for Palm Beach County [Re: Terri]
      #30415 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:24 PM

Saturday:
Mostly cloudy and windy. Isolated thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the morning then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Northwest winds increasing to 25 to 30 mph with gusts to around 55 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Saturday Night:
Cloudy. Strong winds. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Northeast winds 50 to 55 mph with gusts to 80 mph possible. Chance of rain 70 percent.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mlamay
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: Clearwater, FL
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel??? [Re: Terri]
      #30416 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:28 PM

I would imagine that you guys in GA would be ok. The only thing that would happen is that you wouldn't be able to get to Tybee Is.

As for my not so good forcast; I am not expecting that ridge to move so quickly and not pick Jeanne up until it is over West/ Central FL or perhaps even out in the Gulf. I think Jeanne's second landfall will be in the big bend area. Just like Frances

Hey why not huh?

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22 Clearwater, FL
Stormnet


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 280 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 88257

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center