Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
Everything effects everything, one motion is born from another. Stress might be building up in the fault but a trigger is needed, always; that trigger could be anything. A hurricane has many particles, though the drag may be small it is still there.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
|
|
The cause of a quake and the trigger of a quake are two entirely differnt animals. Could the drag force created by a hurricane making landfall trigger a quake? It's plausible. I am not familiar with the dynamics of the force you are referring to, so I would have to read the research. If it slows the rotation of the Earth, then I would expect the tectonic influence to be global, not localized. Remember, the focus (point of origin) of earthquakes is typically tens to hundreds of miles underground, and energy does not propogate well through the Earth's fractured crust. Even nuclear explosions have been shown to have no effect on seismicity.
Either way, for a hurricane to trigger a quake, the portion of the fault that is triggered by such a force would have to be primed to move anyway, so is it really signifcant that it moves one day, one month, one year verses the next? Geologically speaking, no.
Another issue lies with how to prove that that a hurricane making landfall on one side of the globe triggers a quake a week later on the opposite side of the globe. How are going to gather that evidence? Remember, coincidence does not make good science.
A temporary increase or decrease in the seismicity rate is usually just that -- part of the natural variation in the Earth's or a region's seismicity.
--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
|
LONNY307
Unregistered
|
|
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html?ex=1097638839
&ei=1&en=3cd89261538d8ab9
|
LONNY307
Unregistered
|
|
It wouldn't post on this site either. The Times paper wants you to register so here is the article:
Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
September 30, 2004
By Andrew C. REVKIN
Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase
in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming
decades, according to the most comprehensive computer
analysis done so far.
By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric
concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases could
cause a typical hurricane to intensify about an extra half
step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says the
study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J.
And rainfall up to 60 miles from the core would be nearly
20 percent more intense.
Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of
global warming. But this study is particularly significant,
independent experts said, because it used half a dozen
computer simulations of global climate, devised by separate
groups at institutions around the world. The long-term
trends it identifies are independent of the normal lulls
and surges in hurricane activity that have been on display
in recent decades.
The study was published online on Tuesday by The Journal of
Climate and can be found at
www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf.
The new study of hurricanes and warming "is by far and away
the most comprehensive effort" to assess the question using
powerful computer simulations, said Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel, a
hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology who has seen the paper but did not work on it.
About the link between the warming of tropical oceans and
storm intensity, he said, "This clinches the issue."
Dr. Emanuel and the study's authors cautioned that it was
too soon to know whether hurricanes would form more or less
frequently in a warmer world. Even as seas warm, for
example, accelerating high-level winds can shred the
towering cloud formations of a tropical storm.
But the authors said that even if the number of storms
simply stayed the same, the increased intensity would
substantially increase their potential for destruction.
Experts also said that rising sea levels caused by global
warming would lead to more flooding from hurricanes - a
point underlined at the United Nations this week by leaders
of several small island nations, who pleaded for more
attention to the potential for devastation from tidal
surges.
The new study used four climate centers' mathematical
approximations of the physics by which ocean heat fuels
tropical storms.
With almost every combination of greenhouse-warmed oceans
and atmosphere and formulas for storm dynamics, the results
were the same: more powerful storms and more rainfall, said
Robert Tuleya, one of the paper's two authors. He is a
hurricane expert who recently retired after 31 years at the
fluid dynamics laboratory and teaches at Old Dominion
University in Norfolk, Va. The other author was Dr. Thomas
R. Knutson of the Princeton laboratory.
Altogether, the researchers spawned around 1,300 virtual
hurricanes using a more powerful version of the same
supercomputer simulations that generates Commerce
Department forecasts of the tracks and behavior of real
hurricanes.
Dr. James B. Elsner, a hurricane expert at Florida State
University who was among the first to predict the recent
surge in Atlantic storm activity, said the new study was a
significant step in examining the impacts of a warmer
future.
But like Dr. Emanuel, he also emphasized that the
extraordinary complexity of the oceans and atmosphere made
any scientific progress "baby steps toward a final answer."
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html?ex=1097638839
&ei=1&en=3cd89261538d8ab9
---------------------------------
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
Drag related from hurricanes causing earthquakes is yes plausible. A hurricane is a huge coalescence of water vapor, which will have some density difference then the surronding enviorment. Remember the famous formula Mass over Volume, well hurricanes surely have a hefty mass, and volume but they're comprised up of similar gases, so the density difference is small. This causes wind to have an obstructed flow, and have three choices over, to the sides or through. This would slow down the prevailing atmospheric flow, to a point where the friction between the earth and atmosphere would increase, causing a slight decrease in rotational speed. After that I don't know how it would work, because if you were to slow down the rotational speed of Earth, angular momentum would decrease and gravity would increase, therefore causing all magma to be surpressed. That's my take on the whole thing, I know that many other factors contribute to having a volcano erupt, degassing, density of rock material, source of rock material etc. so gravity is just one small thing and besides gravity is a weak force when you think of it.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Mon Oct 04 2004 09:31 PM)
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Well, it was great to be away for a weekend during the 2004 hurricane season and NOT have to read through 400 posts. What a well deserved break for all!
Interesting stuff on the hurricane-earthquake theories...
Got to watch a full day of CFB and now 2 NFL games without ONCE flipping to the ! Watching J-E-T-S vs. the So. Beach Denizens right now...CBS just showed a clip of Beatiful Miami Beach...now I know why they call it the Sunshine State...all I know is the five times I've visited, usually for a minimum of 5 days, I only saw one t-storm...in Ft. Laud...2001 (a month after 9/11)... it was the MOTHER of all storms, yes, but it was over as quickly as it started. What happened in 2004 WAS an anomoly...for sure...something that probably would repeat itself once in 150-200 years...of course that COULD be next year, or in 10 years or in 200 years...but over the long haul, probably no one alive now will ever see another landfalling season like this one.
And like Second shift said a few posts above, it's supposed to be 40 degrees here tomorrow night and possibly in the 30's on Tuesday & Wednesday...I hate WINTER!
Anyhoo, everybody try to get back to normal, enjoy Fri. Night Lights, CFB on Sat & the pros on Sunday...
I'm about willing to declare CV season DONE! and let's hope the GOM/Carrib season only whips up a TS or two...
It will, of course, take weeks, months and maybe years to fully recover from the past 2 months, but you guys will recover, and come back stronger than ever! (Group Hug). Still not time to let the guard down, but a collective sigh of relief can finally be breathed.
Finally, you want fire, brimstone, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and a massive expelling of hot air, tune in to the VP debates Tuesday Night. There may be a bonus point question in the E&N forum before then 
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
Although no action is imminent, these signs at my house have been in the forefront today. I observed slug slime on my front walk this morning, not a usual thing to see. The gnats are in the thousands bunching in areas that have no known reason for them to be there. My dog has been so grumpy, I had to give her benedryl to calm her down. Although the previous mentioned signs do not a forecast make, they usually portend a development of a system some where near by. So, for what its worth, you can be looking for something to develop in the next 3 days. It has been this way since May when I had no idea something was going to be attacking the south of us. Sounds pompus but its true.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
The literature is currently under development. As I mentioned, it's only a theory, but something being looked at informally right now here at .
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
|
|
Quote:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html?ex=1097638839
&ei=1&en=3cd89261538d8ab9
Using the URL feature:
Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
Subject change.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Oct 04 2004 02:57 AM)
|
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
|
|
Quote:
Will the GOM see another system?
Ummm? Trick question? Cause the GOM will see one... eventually...
 But you meant this year, right? I think so. Maybe just TS, but something.
'shana
|
ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
|
|
Looks like convection is flaring up in the GOM this morning. The latest from the Hou/Gav NWS - could be a rainmaker for us here in SouthEast Texas come Wednesday/Thursday.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 040858
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004
.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. BOTH ETA/GFS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TX TODAY...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE DFW AREA.
LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
EXPECT A SEABREEZE TO FORM NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN AND GENERATE
SCATTERED TSRA OVER CENTRAL ZONES.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE TX
THIS EVENING. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND
K-INDICES IN THE MID 30S ACROSS SE TX. ALTHOUGH IS LIKELY
OVERDOING PRECIP DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...EXPECT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW TO KEEP TSRA GOING MAINLY NRN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD
FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX.
MEANWHILE...BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NE
ZONES TUE AFTN WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL
GO HIGHEST POPS SOUTHERN HALF TUE...LOWEST IN THE NORTHEAST. FRONT
SHOULD STALL OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES TUE NIGHT...AND TEMPORARY DRYING
SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ENABLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
GFS SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY LATE WED...AND
UPWARDS OF 2.2 INCHES BY 12Z THU. ETA IS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE THU/THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY. WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER SE TX..LOOKS
LIKE A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
INVERTED TROF/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SE TX WILL BE SLOW TO DRY OUT WITH UPPER
LOW STILL LINGERING OVER THE STATE. WILL SHOW GRADUALLY LOWERING
POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS/RAIN...BUT WILL STILL FORECAST WELL ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE.
35
&&
.MARINE...
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA TOWARD
THE EAST COAST WILL SET UP A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS AS WELL
AS INCREASING TIDE LEVELS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WED-FRI.
SHOWERS & TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS & BAYS WED
NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE ON THE WATERS AFTER
TUES. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
LBX WILL SEE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR FOG EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE. REST OF TERMINALS MAY SEE AN HOUR OR OF THE 5-6SM
VARIETY. THE MAIN DILEMMA FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIP
COVERAGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS FOR IAH SOUTHWARD IN THE 20-24Z TIME PERIOD.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CLL...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY IN THE DFW AREA ARE DEPICTED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD THRU THE DAY - POSSIBLY BY OUTFLOWS. IF HIS
OCCURS IT WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. MAY KEEP CB'S OR VCSH'S GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (IAH
SOUTHWARD) INTO THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD PUSH. DON'T ANTICIPATE CEILINGS BEING MUCH
OF AN ISSUE TODAY...MAINLY VSBY'S IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
OVERALL...TOUGH FCSTS THRU WED SINCE THEY WILL HINGE ON
LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THESE WEAK UPPER IMPULSES AND/OR BOUNDARIES
THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT VERY FAR OUT IN TIME. 47
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 68 82 66 83 / 50 50 50 30 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 71 84 67 84 / 30 40 50 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 76 84 75 84 / 20 30 50 30 40
&&
$$
--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
|
Shalafi
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
|
|
I have good news for everyone. If you go to a site, usually newspapers etc... that require you to register don't fret!
Go to bugmenot.com, type in the URL of the site requiring registration (such as orlandosentinel.com) and get a login and password. Worked several times for me.
--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
That cluster of thunderstorms just zoomed over the Yucatan during the night and is making banding this morning that "looks" like system formation. It is doing this awfully fast. This means that if a system were to develop, it would be doing it pretty fast too I think. I am going to keep loooking at this one. My animals were wild all day yesterday. They did not carry on like this when any of the other storms were forming., I think it was because they had time to adjust to the events around them. But yesterday was wild!!!!
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
Shortbus
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
Although no action is imminent, these signs at my house have been in the forefront today. I observed slug slime on my front walk this morning, not a usual thing to see. The gnats are in the thousands bunching in areas that have no known reason for them to be there. My dog has been so grumpy, I had to give her benedryl to calm her down. Although the previous mentioned signs do not a forecast make, they usually portend a development of a system some where near by. So, for what its worth, you can be looking for something to develop in the next 3 days. It has been this way since May when I had no idea something was going to be attacking the south of us. Sounds pompus but its true.
My dogs were acting very weird yesterday and last night as well, I didn't think much of it but looking back it was very unusual behavior for them, they seemed really restless and one keeps trying to bury himself under blankets, cushions..etc. It'll be interesting to see if anything happens
|
Rodney
Unregistered
|
|
anyone notice that hurricanes have come thru Central Florida every three weeks?
If this pattern holds, next one should be October 16th.
|
DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
|
|
Do you think that perhaps your dog (and others acting as strange) might be picking up on the building magna in Mt. St. Helens? I know it might be a reach to think that dogs this far away might be picking up on it, unless your in Texas where we got ash the last time it blew. I remember washing it off my car. I know that this disturbance can cause a ripple effect all over the earth. (right??)
--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Morning all. Sorry I've been away for most of the last month, but the volume was just too insane for me to follow. I guess under the news talkback format, when something is so close to home as the 5 FL landfalls so far this year, it just gets a bit overwhelming to keep up with. I was skimming and browsing, but it seemed like every time I left the site and came back a couple of hours later, there were another 200 posts. Great for the site, bad for me 
It looks like the Western Gulf is the next threat. Bastardi is talking potential for heavy rains in coastal TX and LA. He was pretty noncommital but did note a 98 (yikes) or Allison type system where there will be tremendously heavy rains - just on the North and East sides. The real key is the surge of tropical moisture and not necessarily development or lack of it. Most of the precip models are keying in on some strong rains for ETX and WLA. Hey, we've got something to track this week anyway, and i get a shot at some rain. I'm thankful for that. This is also my week to ditch Bastardi until next June, so any future updates are going to have to come from someone else. I'll be re-subscribing next year of course.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Grasshopper2
Unregistered
|
|
If anyone is interested. Here is a report on what the weather was like out in the gulf yesterday.
Finally got to get back on the water this weekend. Had to be the most beautiful day I've had in years. I was at my friend Jaryd's house watching the Browns game, and at half time he asked if i wanted to go fishing. So, off we went. We left around 16:00 with his brother-in-law, another Matt, and went about 35 miles due west of New Port Richie. Seas were 1'-2' @ ~10 second intervals, water temp 82.5F. Consistant light wind out of the NW. Conditions stayed like that till about 20:00. Just unbelivablely beautiful out. The fish were good to us too. Brought home 28"& 23" Gags (Black Grouper ). We threw back 3 that were just over/under the limit.
Sunset was amazing. There was a good sized thunderstorm N of us, with a band of clouds that spread SW of us. The sun lit them all up in a bright orange. Looked Like someone took a huge orange cotton ball and streatched it out from the panhandle to Mexico. Judging distance on the water is so hard but I would say the storm was 100-500 miles N of us, with the "front" about 100 miles @ it's closest point. Winds shifted to N and kicked up to 10-15 knt and the seas rose to 3-4 with white on the tips, something we hadent seen all day, so we decided to head back. Conditions never changed again, but the storm never died either.
I am not a professional, fisherman or otherwise, and did my best to observe and judge conditions as I saw them, the only "guage" I had was a thermometer, on fish finder. We go out , weather permitting, about every 2 weeks. Sometimes we go as far as 120 miles. If anyone finds any of this information valuable I would be happy to post/PM after each trip.
Hope all had as good of a sunday....
Matt
|
grasshopper2
Unregistered
|
|
Live eruption coverage..... www.katu.com
Steam releasing right now.....
Matt
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
