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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Hurricane Recon Flight Schedules [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38933 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:07 PM

Quote:

When is the next recon ETA at the storm?


(/me playing Mr. Links today...) NOAA makes the Plan of the Day (and plan of tomorrow) available through http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml. The current plan is:
Code:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 061700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT WED 06 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM Dennis
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z A. O8/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0404A Dennis B. NOAA9 0504A Dennis
C. 07/1430Z C. 07/1800Z
D. 19.0N 77.4W D. NA
E. 07/1700Z - 08/0030Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000-45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 08/0000Z A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0604A Dennis B. NOAA2 0704A Dennis
C. 07/1800Z C. 08/0430Z
D. NA D. 20.4N 79.8W
E. NA E. 08/0530Z - 08/0900Z
F. 24,000 T0 30,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE
A. 08/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0804A Dennis
C. 08/0800Z
D. 21.1N 80.9W
E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A G-IV
FLIGHT FOR 09/0000Z.



So it looks like the next recon fix is by flight 1, and is at 1800Z (line A), or 2 p.m. EDT. The plane will be on site at 1700Z (1 p.m. EDT) and stay there until 08/0030Z (8:30 p.m. today EDT, line E). Unless I'm reading this totally wrong

Edited to put in and discuss today's plan instead of tomorrow's

Jax Chris

Edited by Jax Chris (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:35 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Clark]
      #38934 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:13 PM

Quote:

Full update coming on the met. blogs on the front page, but here are the highlights:

* Dennis' northwesterly jog will spare the island of Jamaica from the worst, but they will still be dealing with hurricane-force winds for some time. Areas on the north side of the island will be especially prone to flooding due to the higher terrain & flow up the mountains towards the south.

* The eye is becoming better defined in satellite imagery; Dennis may be peaking near major hurricane intensity before land interactions begin to slow it down somewhat. Recon is on its way and a fix is due for the next hour or two.

* Models are trending further and further east with time, coming into line with the FSUMM5 but still a bit west of the Canadian model. The upper-air pattern is becoming a bit better defined and the data input to the models from the surveillance plane has had a noticeable impact on the projected path of the storm.

More on track & intensity forecast and synoptic reasoning within the next half-hour.


When you say futher and further east,does that mean you think S FL maybe more under the gun?Also the eye is north of Jamaica,not really THAT close. http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_satellite2.asp

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: hurricane_run]
      #38935 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:17 PM

Wondering - When Dennis hits Cuba heading at an angle, would one expect the land/mountains cause it to bend more toward the West, North or have no influence on the general direction?

Thanks


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daviking
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Dougyd]
      #38936 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:21 PM

Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.

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Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: daviking]
      #38937 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:22 PM

Those new models runs coming out are a little too close to the coast for comfort.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Cuba influence [Re: Dougyd]
      #38938 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:23 PM

If goes over the mountainous...is that a word?...will have an effect on the intensity.

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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: pcola]
      #38939 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:24 PM

Quote:

Accuweather is still sticking to its guns and saying Mississippi.




well, once the 12Z model runs come in, they will probably reconsider...maybe the CMC model will be correct all along?


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Pensacola101
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38940 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:25 PM

People here in Pensacola are going nuts with this thing. We have always been around the center of the model tracking, but it is just a hurry up and wait type situation. I hate to wish this thing on someone else, but Ivan really tore us up in Sept of last year.

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Gulf temps [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38941 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:25 PM

it's always hotter in July and August in the Gulf...than in September...when hurricanes usually hit...

Camille hit in August....

if Gulf Temps are in the 90's....does that translate to a hyper-cane....I mean, not to be an alarmist or anything....but 200 mph winds are possible when the Gulf Temps are that warm....

any feed back on this will be appreciating....I'm just running with possibilities righ now...


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st.pete boy
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38942 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:25 PM

The entire west coast of Florida (up through north of Tampa) can expect tropical storm force winds and flooding surge if the current track verifies...

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Now what would be funny is... [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38943 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:26 PM

if the CMC shifted west at 12Z as the others shifted east. That would be par for the course.

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mom2als
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Kissimmee, Fl
Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #38944 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:26 PM

Actually,Skeetobite, if I'm reading things right from your first map over Cuba, then on the second map, isnt the 8 am Friday near South Fl supposed to read Sat, thus the other one Sun? Either way, I love your maps despite the fact that you keep going over either my house in Kissimmee or my house in FWB. I sure wish you stop that!

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Accuweather [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38947 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:30 PM

Yeah he is pretty adament with that..MS/LA landfall...believe he's going with UKMET which is the outlier & still persistant on that course.

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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: daviking]
      #38948 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:30 PM

Quote:

Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.




Need to look at the offshore bouy data.. No. 42036 100 miles west of Bayport FL has 83 deg Gulf Temps

Go to:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml


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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38949 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:32 PM

If gulf temps are this warm this thing has a chance to be an absolute monster

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




The EYE [Re: MikeC]
      #38950 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:32 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

If you click on forcast points, the eye matches perfevtly


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: st.pete boy]
      #38951 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:33 PM

Not to blow my own horn(I know that that is not what this forum is about)But is seems that what I feared a couple of days ago MAYBE happening.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: The EYE [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #38952 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:34 PM

Nah...hair to the north.

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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Now what would be funny is... [Re: jth]
      #38953 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:34 PM

Quote:

if the CMC shifted west at 12Z as the others shifted east. That would be par for the course.




Actually , that might be good in that it would imply convergence by the models..


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daviking
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38954 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.




Need to look at the offshore bouy data.. No. 42036 100 miles west of Bayport FL has 83 deg Gulf Temps

Go to:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml




WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.


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