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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: leetdan]
      #41764 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:17 PM

Quote:

I gave up on CNN after all of four minutes. "Look at the FEAR on their faces!" I was getting tired from rolling my eyes so much.




Id be fearful too.. That Metsal could slice you in half..

CNN now has on the Crestview Hotel, surprisingly the Emergency Personnel responded. Do you think this storm is alot lighter then some thought it would be?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: leetdan]
      #41765 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:18 PM

METAR text: KNPA 101956Z 32022G44KT 3/4SM +SHRA BR OVC014 MM/22 A2884 RMK PK WND 01050/1954 PRESFR SLP773 P0064
Conditions at: KNPA observed 1956 UTC 10 July 2005
Temperature: missing
Dewpoint: missing
Pressure (altimeter): 28.84 inches Hg (976.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 977.3 mb]
Winds: from the NW (320 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.4 m/s)
gusting to 51 MPH (44 knots; 22.9 m/s)
Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1400 feet AGL
Weather: +SHRA BR (heavy rain showers, mist)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

METAR text: KPFN 102000Z AUTO 17026G38KT 3SM -RA BR FEW014 BKN020 OVC040 26/25 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 17038/1959 P0001 $
Conditions at: KPFN observed 2000 UTC 10 July 2005
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.47 inches Hg (998.1 mb)
Winds: from the S (170 degrees) at 30 MPH (26 knots; 13.5 m/s)
gusting to 44 MPH (38 knots; 19.8 m/s)
Visibility: 3 miles (5 km)
Ceiling: 2000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1400 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 4000 feet AGL
Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

http://weather.cod.edu/obs/fl.cooked

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 04:23 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41766 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:19 PM

Microwave data suggests an eyewall replacement cycle was near as it approached landfall, but the system made landfall before it could be completed. Thankfully, that coupled with the cooler waters offshore likely kept intensity in check -- and on the decline -- as it made landfall. It'll be interesting to see the reports trickle in over the next couple of days, but I expect a lot of damage along Navarre Beach and towards Ft. Walton & Mary Esther.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Nate]
      #41767 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:21 PM

I'd keep in mind that initial reports always seem better than what was expected. The extent of the damage will not be known until the storm clears and helicopters can go up to survey the damage and people can drive around.

I expect the damage to be worse than many here are assuming now.

Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Jul 10 2005 04:23 PM)


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Nate]
      #41768 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:22 PM

Yes, and I agree. But long after the sign came down, long after the eyewall was north of him, he (Cooper?) kept over-sensationalizing the danger he was in. "I'm going to drag this scrap across the street before it kills one of us" Etc.

On the other hand, Sudduth has been driving along the beach the last few minutes. It looks like the surge wasn't nearly as bad as Ivan, but there's still a good amount of beach sand on the road.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #41769 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:25 PM

Yes… but don’t be fooled. The more destructive winds are going to be over a relatively small area, with is not comparable to the CNN footage (they were experiencing the western quadrants). They are generalizing (ie, they are saying “this is not as bad as it could have been”, whereas they should be saying “this is not as bad as it could have been here.”)

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Jul 10 2005 04:26 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: leetdan]
      #41771 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:26 PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KMOB.shtml

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...HURRICANE Dennis MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE
FLORIDA...CLOSEST TO ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA...

..EXTREME WIND DAMAGE...FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES A CERTAINTY
AFTER LANDFALL...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE OUR LAST HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT. FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS
PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE
SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING. BALDWIN...MOBILE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE
NOT IN THE TORNADO WATCH.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 245 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE Dennis WAS LOCATED
AT 30.4 NORTH LATITUDE...87.1 WEST LONGITUDE...OR NEAR ORIOLE BEACH
FLORIDA. Dennis WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.
THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS
FROM BOTH EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE AND MOBILE ALABAMA SHOW 125 TO 135 MPH
WINDS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET OFF OF THE GROUND...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF Dennis OVER THE LANDFALL
LOCATION. A PORTABLE WEATHER OBSERVATION STATION NEAR NAVARRE
MEASURED A 121 MPH WIND GUST AT 211 PM CDT. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT Dennis IS LIKELY A CATEGORY THREE STORM...AND POSSIBLY A
CATEGORY 4 STORM. WE WILL KNOW MORE AS MORE OBSERVATIONS BECOME
AVAILABLE.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AT THIS TIME...ALL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED. IF YOU DID NOT EVACUATE...SEEK SHELTER IN THE
STURDIEST INTERIOR STRUCTURE YOU CAN FIND. SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY
AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV OR
LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH 2 PM CDT. STORM SURGE VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF Dennis'S CENTER.
THE GREATEST STORM SURGE HAZARD OVER ESCAMBIA BAY FLORIDA...
ESPECIALLY EAST BAY. RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS ARE IN STORE
THROUGH 5 PM CDT OVER ESCAMBIA BAY AS Dennis APPROACHES. BE PREPARED!
TIDE LEVELS IN MOBILE BAY ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET DUE TO
OFFSHORE WINDS AS Dennis. SOME PILING OF WATER ON THE BAY SIDES OF
BOTH THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA AND DAUPHIN ISLAND ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 7 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA BY NOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. THESE WILL SPREAD
INLAND BY 6 PM CDT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR
AROUND AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF Dennis' CENTER. AFTER LANDFALL
...THE CENTER OF Dennis IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
BALDWIN...CLARKE...CHOCTAW....ESCAMBIA AND MONROE COUNTIES OF ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST AS
UPDATES OCCUR. EXTENSIVE TO EXTREME TORNADO-LIKE WIND DAMAGE IS
POSSIBLE AROUND...AND ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF
DENNIS' EYE AS IT MOVES INLAND.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
STAY OUT OF THE WATER. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE
RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE
WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY! RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY DUE
TO A FASTER FORWARD MOTION FROM Dennis. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE
RAPID...ESPECIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN
CONCRETE SURFACES. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING...
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD BE WORSE
THAN Ivan OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998.
AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
MIDWEEK. THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF Dennis.

...TORNADO THREAT...USUALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT OF HURRICANE
INDUCED TORNADOES IS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE STORM'S
CENTER. A SECOND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE EYE
DURING LANDFALL. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS Dennis PLOWS INLAND. TORNADO WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMMINENT THREAT.

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE Dennis MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE
FLORIDA...CLOSEST TO ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA.

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS
AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT
OF Dennis. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE
MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS Dennis EVOLVES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
300 PM CDT...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED.


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
gettiin gusts of 45-50 mph [Re: leetdan]
      #41772 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:27 PM

heavy bands...nothin dangerous.....we're under a curfew...or I'd drive to Brewton and get some real excitement...

hope noone got hurt....


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Lysis]
      #41773 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:28 PM

Agreed. This thing is going to have some areas of damage very much like Ivan did -- just not where the reporters are right now.

And, as an aside, the NHC did an absolutely fantastic job with this one. Others...not so much. That's why they make the big bucks, fellows. Just hope everyone is safe out there with this storm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Lysis]
      #41774 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:31 PM

Quote:

I don't know... some of these news reports are a little silly. The two guys on CNN are pretending that they are in the eye... You guys do realize that this is nothing even remotely close to what going through a major hurricane is like?




I agree.

Well the first thing that I thought was weird was that when it was blowing they kept saying that they must be in the eye...here they are covering hurricanes and they don't even understand the difference between the eye (calm) and the eye wall (big wind).

The second thing is - why the heck do they all go stand out in the wind or knee deep in water or wherever they think it looks the worst? That will just convince people that there isn't any reason not to go right down to see a hurricane because hey look you can stand in it. It seems like either they are out there when they shouldn't be, or they're outside trying to convince you that they are in the middle of some terrible storm and yet standing in front of a bush where the leaves aren't even fluttering.

I am wondering if the winds weren't lifted off the ground a bit. I agree with you those fellows were not in the middle of what you think of when you think of a serious hurricane: high level winds that are sustained over a long period of time.

I think maybe first because it blew through so fast, and second, the high winds were so limited around such a small area. Third, it really is hard to tell just how hard the wind is blowing by seeing someone stand in it on TV, so it could have been blowing harder than it seemed. Finally, I think this storm really did blow itself out a lot before hitting land (starting over an hour before when the radar signature of the eye started looking like a comma with the south side breaking up a bit).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #41775 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:31 PM

Down to a CAT 2.. 96 MPH WINDS as of 5PM...

Worse is def over..

No way this thing stays a hurricane til Monday night as earlier prediction.

Never say never when dealing with the weather.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 04:34 PM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #41776 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:33 PM

nice catch Daniel. can the eyewall finish regerating over land? can those high winds sink?

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #41777 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:34 PM

I was just about to say that Clark… kudos to the NHC. Their track remained pretty consistent, and, God willing, the death toll will be dramatically lessened because of it. One positive (and negative) about this storm is that the area it affected was well versed in the reality of hurricanes. Hopefully everyone took it seriously.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Jul 10 2005 04:46 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41778 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:37 PM

Quote:

nice catch Daniel. can the eyewall finish regerating over land? can those high winds sink?




Clark, Hank, this question has you guys written on it.
I wish I could answer that for you...I would hope it couldn't finish the cycle!


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #41779 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:40 PM

I wouldnt be surprised if Dennis is downgraded to a TS at the next Advisory.

AS TWC stated it is really losing its punch.. This is really great news.Now we all gottaworry about flooding.


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #41780 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:51 PM

Clark: I echo your sentiments. The NHC did an outstanding job on forecasting the track of this storm. I just went over to the NHC archives and pulled up their 5 day forecast graphics.

In Advisory #6 (July 6, 2005 5am EDT), they literally had the marker sitting RIGHT on top of the final true landfall spot. No kidding - go pull up the chart and see if you don't believe me. The only thing they had wrong about it was the landfall time - they had predicted 2am Monday. Keep in mind that was 105 hours out.

ALSO...keep in mind the storm's location at the time of that forecast was due south of the Dominican Republic. That was a fantastically accurate prediction, all things concerned. And by Advisory #17 (July 8, 5pm EDT...45 hours out) they had nailed landfall at roughly 230pm Sunday.

I'm sorry, but for this isolated case, the NHC could not have better predicted the storm. My heart goes out to any who may have suffered losses from this horrific storm, but I do add one footnote for what its worth: the NHC knew where this storm was going, and did a great job of warning people. If there were those who, despite reason and sense decided to stay put on the beach in the path of the storm....well, I'll still be sympathetic to their plight, but I'll also think in my mind it could have been avoided.

Again, kudos to the NHC for an excellent forecasting job...

--------------------
Londovir


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Nate]
      #41781 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:52 PM

Hey Clark… did you ever answer the lightning question? I know that it is atypical for hurricanes, so what do you reason was causing it?

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Jul 10 2005 04:53 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41782 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:54 PM

The eyewall will simply continue to disintegrate and collapse over land. As it weakens, some of the winds may be transferred down to the surface, but having lost the necessary conditions for development -- energy off of the ocean waters -- there is no chance of regeneration. The eyewall replacement cycle was interrupted in the process, leaving the storm in a transitory state from which it will only weaken.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #41783 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:55 PM

Looks like the rain bands arent following whole way around the eye, the back part looks like drier air is filling on, which qwill weaken it faster.

VERY GOOD NEWS

Not necessarily. The appearance on radar is much like that of any other storm making landfall and indicative of the effects of land upon the storm. There are less echoes on radar to the east of the storm now, yes, but that is well removed from the center and not near the core. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Sun Jul 10 2005 04:57 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis' Landfall [Re: Lysis]
      #41784 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:56 PM

Must've missed that one, but I'll take a stab on lightning in hurricanes in general.

Lightning is caused largely by charged particles aloft...sometimes ice content can be used as a good marker for lightning ability. It's rare with tropical cyclones to see the necessary conditions for lightning due to low ice content and the like, but with the cold convective tops found with Dennis, it's not out of the realm of possibility to have seen some. Most tropical cyclones do have *some* lightning, just not a lot.

I'm not as familiar with lightning processes, however, as with other aspects of the field, so perhaps HF or someone can add in more.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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