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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
91L Invest
      #44686 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:12 PM

Not to draw attention away from TS Franklin, but 91L invest is now up for the Tropical wave about to move over the Yacatan.

Also looks like the Hurricane Hunters are going to be busy for a while

SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 23/1530Z C. 24/0300Z
D. 20.5N 92.5W D. 22.5N 94.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2300Z E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F.SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 25/1500Z ON FRANKLIN.
CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.

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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: 91L Invest [Re: Jamiewx]
      #44698 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:31 PM

The north end of that wave looks as though there is a mid-level circulation associated with it, just onshore of the Yucutan near where Emily made landfall. The southern end, near Belize, is currently the more convectively active part of the system. Once it emerges into the Gulf overnight into tomorrow, something might get going. It's longer-term prospect would be better if the southern end were to win out, given the upwelling in the wake of Emily further north. Waters there are still around 27 C, recovering at a decent clip, but are churned up below the surface. Nevertheless, if a storm gets organized through there, it's likely going to be a short-lived event that heads to Mexico.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
next one ??? [Re: Clark]
      #45724 - Thu Jul 28 2005 08:48 AM

I`ve been watching the system at about 22N 52W to 17N 54W moving west at 20kt. Looks impressive on infrared. Maybe we`ll get something to track in the next few days, seeing that its moving into a more favorable enviroment... What do you guys and gals think out there in CFHC land....Weatherchef

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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered




Re: next one ??? [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #45881 - Thu Jul 28 2005 09:05 PM

I've been noticing the UKMET looks like the 'origin' is in the wrong place, compared to the other models, in the SFWMD plots. It's looked messed up for several days now. Anybody know why or whether they are going to fix that? Am I correct in thinking that blue line should be shifted to start where all the others start (or closer to there)?

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