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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #48033 - Tue Aug 16 2005 06:55 AM

The low center is this morning much more closer to convection and that indicates that the shear is not as strong as in the past few days.I would not be surprised if this system be renamed TD later today or tommorow.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #48034 - Tue Aug 16 2005 07:30 AM

Good morning. First, I want to say that I did read the Tropical Atlantic Discussion this morning and read the part about the trough of low pressure over the gulf etc as well as the Burmuda High that has been sitting squarely over Florida lately. After having said that, I am going to comment that the flareup of thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche look familiar to other times of disturbed weather when a low pressure developed into a storm. My last understanding is that the Burmuda High is to remain in place until perhaps Thursday. Then there is no information about where it will be. Are there any comments on this? I personally am tired of playing with TD 10 .

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #48035 - Tue Aug 16 2005 07:48 AM

There is still a significant amount of SWesterly shear over the former TD10 as seen in the WV Loop this morning. It also appears that the Atlantic ridge is building westward behind Irene. I hope the ridge axis will be North of FL so that we can resume our usual SEasterly air flow and get back to "normal" summer weather.

--------------------
Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
A Learning Opportunity [Re: MichaelA]
      #48036 - Tue Aug 16 2005 08:04 AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Since things are relatively quiet, how about using this set-up as a learning experience:

Looking at the TPC forecast for 72 hours in the link above, with the ridge building and the low moving toward it, and the Bermurda high above it, what chances for development do you folks see?

If you believe the low will build, where do you see the system going and why, again based on the information presented within the link

Thanks,
Michael


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: MichaelA]
      #48037 - Tue Aug 16 2005 09:10 AM

I don't think the remnants of TD10 are dead yet. From this mornings TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH

--------------------
RJB


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48038 - Tue Aug 16 2005 09:18 AM

I am thinking TD10 might make a comeback based on the conditions ahead, also thinking in the interim it will moke w to wnw for 3 days then we wait and see what happens with the ridge and the system, if there is one at that point

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1021
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: NewWatcher]
      #48039 - Tue Aug 16 2005 09:50 AM

Looking at the recent track the remnants of TD10 are not following the "west northwestward" track that NHC has been continually calling for, and instead over the past 24 hours it has slid more west southwest. It seems that a lot of the more recent systems out there this year (Franklin, Harvey, Irene, this one) seem to like ignoring the NHC guidance, both in tracking further south and in not getting torn appart by other systems that the NHC is predicting will do such. I suspect that the NHC has picked up on this, and that's why (a) Irene wasn't downgraded and (b) TD10 remnants are still being so closely watched.

If systems are able to survive in such hazardous conditions as Irene and TD10 seem to be able to do, I wonder what will happen with a truely strong wave like the one that Clark mentioned might come off Africa in about half a week.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 771
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: NewWatcher]
      #48040 - Tue Aug 16 2005 09:55 AM

I think next week will be very busy.What was once TD10 could make a comeback,there is a wave coming off Africa and there is a low that should come off Africa in a couple of days.A low in that postion is not a commen thing,THAT could be real interesting to watch.Enjoy the little lull were are in,cause I think next week will be the start of alot of action.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48041 - Tue Aug 16 2005 10:06 AM

To the MOD's on this blog, any chance of changing to a new thread, since TD-10 is longer? A new subject should be given here.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48043 - Tue Aug 16 2005 10:18 AM

yea bob i see where your getting that one from, in the models a pretty impressive wave is shown coming off Africa in 4 days give or take a day, and remnats of TD#10 picked up some convection and thunderstorm activity, and its moving into waters more favorable, just like Irene, it weakened and its now regaining a little of it's former strength. We'll have to wait and see.

One thing is for sure, i'm going to Montauk tomorrow till saturday and there should be some pretty biiigg waves and dangerous rip currents.

Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48044 - Tue Aug 16 2005 10:21 AM

6z GFS, 00Z CMC and the FSU all have a really significant wave coming off africa sometime between 120 and 144 hrs. This one might be interesting.... as for no-longer TD10, i still think we will see a general w wnw track overall for a few
IMO

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48045 - Tue Aug 16 2005 10:44 AM

Quote:

I think next week will be very busy.What was once TD10 could make a comeback,there is a wave coming off Africa and there is a low that should come off Africa in a couple of days.A low in that postion is not a commen thing,THAT could be real interesting to watch.Enjoy the little lull were are in,cause I think next week will be the start of alot of action.




I think it is still just wait and see and all else is just a guess.


=======================================================

Don't look now who won 5 in a row.

EL Choke time coming for the 1 year wonders.

America's team? just a bunch of no class thugs.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 416
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback(?) [Re: ralphfl]
      #48046 - Tue Aug 16 2005 11:18 AM

Quote:

Quote:

I think next week will be very busy.What was once TD10 could make a comeback,there is a wave coming off Africa and there is a low that should come off Africa in a couple of days.A low in that postion is not a commen thing,THAT could be real interesting to watch.Enjoy the little lull were are in,cause I think next week will be the start of alot of action.




I think it is still just wait and see and all else is just a guess.






There is always some guesswork in tropical prediction, if there wasn't, we wouldn't be here. That being said, I do agree that what we have going on right now is more guesswork than what you'd typically expect in the tropics.

Irene looks pretty. though I'm keeping an eye on it in case any of my relatives in Newfoundland are impacted. But I'm thinking unlikely, as the storm is being pushed a hair south of due east.

The Storm formerly known as TD-10 continues to sputter convection, T numbers stand at 1.0/1.0 again, and have held them for the last 6+ hours. Of note, the storm is a bit over 2 degress south of the last projected path. it also looks like it has one more major bout of shear to contend with before things could start to relax. if the storm can survive that, and the collapse of the thunderstorms (with the resulting outflow boundries), we might see something develop.

As a slight aside, I find it fascinating what pieces of information people think are more relevant and more apropos to the current situation. It's part of the fun and learning process from my prospective.

Take care
-Mark

--------------------
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2016.


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