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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Final Advisory [Re: Unregistered User]
      #47972 - Sun Aug 14 2005 11:42 PM

To eliminate any and all confusion to some of the readers here.
This is the Final Advisory on what was TD 10. Issued 12 hours ago.
There is No TD 10. Only the remnants remain.
End of discussion. Until NHC makes a determination that it has regenerated.
Any further posts will be removed from the board.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS STILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND A QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
REGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 320/6. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/141440.shtml
Bold emphasis added~danielw


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Final Advisory [Re: danielw]
      #47979 - Mon Aug 15 2005 01:53 AM

It's near the diurnal convective maximum, so the standard short-term caveats apply in this case, but TD 10 is looking, well, like a tropical depression once again. Convection has flared up around the center in curved bands, primarily to the northwest and notheast of the center. It is still in a shearing environment and will likely remain so for the next day or two, but it is looking quite a bit like Irene did for several days. I mentioned earlier that I'm not sure why the NHC downgraded it so quickly, particularly given what they maintained with Irene, but they are the experts and I'm not going to say it was a bad call...just one I'd like some clarification on.

If current trends continue, I expect they'll pick back up with advisories sometime Monday. That said, I'd only put it at 50/50 that current trends continue, given the shear in the vicinity of the disturbance. No matter whether it gets picked back up or not, it should continue largely to the west or west-northwest and be near the northern islands in a few days. The weakness of the storm plus it missing the weakness from the trough to the NE are the culprits in this motion. Beyond that, model solutions diverge, with the potential for this to either head back out to sea (NOGAPS, GFDL) or turn more towards the west (GFS, UKMET) -- needless to say, it's way too early to make a forecast on this, given that it isn't even a depression right now.

The GFS forecasts a more favorable upper-level environment to develop near the storm in the next day or so, while the UKMET tracks an identifiable entity through 6 days to a position near the Bahamas, suggesting some development may be possible later in the period. The NOGAPS is a bit more bullish than the GFS on developing this ridging, a departure from what was forecast in most of yesterday's runs. They will all have to be watched for continuity and to see if this all actually occurs, but given the model concurrence, it's a good bet things will get more favorable through time.

So, to recap...it's not TD 10 right now, but it's not out of our hair just yet. We'll watch it.

Interesting to note...it's 5-6 days out, but all of the models are picking up on a strong feature coming off of the coast of Africa at that point. Another upper-low is forecast to build into the central Atlantic in 3-4 days, but start to move out about the time this feature hits the coast. The favorable environment conditions are coming, as advertised...we'll have to see how this pans out.

More Monday or Tuesday.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: WAVE [Re: Clark]
      #47981 - Mon Aug 15 2005 07:50 AM

The latest wave coming off Africa has finally not disappated. Looks like the Sal is decreasing off Africa and the trough that was out there is moving away. There seems to be a low around 18w 11n as the wave comes off. Will this be the locomotive?

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Bye Bye Irene [Re: LONNY307]
      #47984 - Mon Aug 15 2005 09:06 AM

Can we finally put Irene to rest as far as the CONUS is concerned? Hope so as it's definately just a threat to fishermen on the great banks brining in their catch.

TD 10? looks to be just a simple flareup of thunderstorms heading generally in a NNW direction. Definately nothing to be concerned about.

All seems well in the tropics at least for now.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Bye Bye Irene [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #47985 - Mon Aug 15 2005 11:21 AM

Kind of a slow morning. Anyone with any thoughts on the SW Carribean? What about the wave dropping SW towards PR...is than anything?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Bye Bye Irene [Re: Ed in Va]
      #47986 - Mon Aug 15 2005 11:42 AM

Was the Shear worse over Irene or over tropical depression 10. I am tottaly lost at why the NHC downgraded TD10 yesterday it look just like irene did last week.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
The Tropics [Re: NONAME]
      #47987 - Mon Aug 15 2005 12:02 PM

so, as of now, besides Hurricane Irene we have nothing to worry about for a couple days at least, i just hope that maybe this will be a quiet period of sctivity in the troics, all we can do is wait and see. Could someone refresh my memory, whats peak of the season?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Figment
Unregistered




Re: The Tropics [Re: Ryan]
      #47988 - Mon Aug 15 2005 12:04 PM

That would be Spetember 10.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Bye Bye Irene [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #47989 - Mon Aug 15 2005 12:32 PM

Actually there is still a LLC, just to the south west, associated with this convection . Follow this link. Click on animation then 30 image loop then double click on the remnants of TD10 and you will get a 1Km loop of this area. Do not click on animate image below. You can clearly pick up the LLC moving west right along that latitude line. Hopefully you have a broadband connection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Bye Bye Irene [Re: craigm]
      #47990 - Mon Aug 15 2005 01:03 PM

Irene appears that it is still strengthening, and the eye is now very evident on visible images, although seems to be covered with thin high clouds, which is why it is not showing up on the IR image. TD10 seems to be completely done with, i expect what little is left of the LLC to completely disappear by midweek.

Irene going out to sea, TD10 dissipated, and nothing looks like it will form--we seem to be in that brief lull that is seen at some point in every August. Some examples just in the last decade:
2004: nothing formed Aug 15-24 (the week before Frances developed)
2003: August 16-27 nothing but a TD on 8-21
2002: NOTHING between Aug 9 and 29
2001: the quiet period between track segments of Dean (Aug 23-27)
2000: NOTHING in August after the 24th
1999: entire first 17 days
1998: entire first 18 days
1997: entire month
1996: entire first 18 days
1995: nothing formed Aug 11-21


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Bye Bye Irene [Re: Rabbit]
      #47991 - Mon Aug 15 2005 01:33 PM

I've been seeing in other places that they are talking about the dust coming off of Africa as an inhibiting factor as it's drying the air. It makes sense, but it has to end sometime.

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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Wave off of Africa [Re: Rabbit]
      #47992 - Mon Aug 15 2005 01:39 PM Attachment (117 downloads)

The wave coming of a Africa look healtheir then any that i have seen this year it looks like it could be associated with a low. Met do you got anything on this one and are any models devloping it. Here is a attachment of it

Edited by NONAME (Mon Aug 15 2005 01:42 PM)


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Bye Bye Irene [Re: NONAME]
      #47993 - Mon Aug 15 2005 01:49 PM

As a practical matter I think that the NHC did not want to have TD-10 in it's current state effect their forecast error. Aswe all know the strength of the storm has a major effect on the track. As they found with Irene, they could not predict the strenght and missed the forecast path. Since this is no danger and not knowing if or when it will develope, no need to forecast a path what will be wrong. The "1st." models had the storm moving hundred of miles in a different direction than the current local.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Wave off of Africa [Re: NONAME]
      #47994 - Mon Aug 15 2005 01:51 PM

no name, it looks like a big cluster of thunderstorms, i htink it may have to get its asct togrther a little bit

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Bye Bye Irene [Re: Rabbit]
      #47995 - Mon Aug 15 2005 01:56 PM

Rabbit, nice summary of August calm periods. Really not unusual. You may be right about former TD10, but it still has a pretty impressive LLC. I remember Irene in a similar situation not too long ago. If it can survive the shearing environment another day or two, it may have a chance to develop convection around the center again. And it's alot further south in latitude, which over the long run probably gives it more favorable conditions to develop.

--------------------
RJB


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Ron Basso]
      #47998 - Mon Aug 15 2005 02:25 PM

Look Like What is left of TD 10 is just a remant low it looks like it is dissipating and I dont think the LLC will last till the shear relaxes I think is spose to realaxe in 2-3 days but i'm not sure some could help me find this out I would be very happy. It had almost none if any convection left. So anything intressing going on in the basin sence Irene Is Heading out to sea and 10 looks dead what is next.

Edited by NONAME (Mon Aug 15 2005 02:27 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: NONAME]
      #47999 - Mon Aug 15 2005 02:28 PM

Latest run on Old TD 10 or invest 96 it's not doing anything except west like a wave.

15/1745 UTC 14.8N 49.9W TOO WEAK 10
15/1145 UTC 14.6N 49.3W T1.0/1.5 10
Dave


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atwork
Unregistered




Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48000 - Mon Aug 15 2005 02:33 PM

which means what old sailor?

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Down Time [Re: atwork]
      #48001 - Mon Aug 15 2005 02:46 PM

whats nexy you ask, some down time to get ready for the peak season, unfortunatley i think their will be more systems to watch around august 24th...or just mid-late august in general.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: atwork]
      #48002 - Mon Aug 15 2005 03:00 PM

Means right now Old TD10 is moving west no signs of coming back right now, However if in a few days it does become a TD again we just may have a GOM problem instead of a East Coast problem.

Dave


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