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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48356 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:17 PM

Quote:

From Tampa Bay NWS PM Disc:

BY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DGEX SHOW REMNANTS OF TD #10 MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE OUT TO THE NORTH KEEPING IT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA. IF THE GFS/DGEX SOLUTION PANS OUT...OR IF THIS SYSTEMS GETS BETTER ORGANIZED THEN WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS IN LATER FORECASTS...





Are they kidding??? I hope for you that it pans out for your much needed rain. But, IMHO, (no pun intended here) I don't think that GFS/DGEX solution holds much water. XTD10 remnants looks like nothing more than mish mosh.

Yes, that's an offical meteorological term : mish mosh....feel free to use it.

I'm out like TD10. Have a great weekend everyone.


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48357 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:26 PM

Finally convection holding off Africa. Have to wait to see how the models handle this wave. I know someone posted the models were initializing this wave. I haven't looked yet at the models. Too busy today. Anyways looks like the train is about to leave the station.

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J.C.
Unregistered




Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: NONAME]
      #48359 - Fri Aug 19 2005 05:02 PM

It is interesting to note that both the navy and NHC are both hinting around to not giving up on this system. Again I refer to climatolgy. Is it not getting ready to enter an area where we see storms have cyclogenesis? Could this be the reason for the continued interest. I noticed at 5am there was no mention of #10 at all , then at 11am they mentioned it again. My thought now is if this area is able to get w or wnw for another 6 to 12 hrs it just might do something. Also wonder where that report from shps came from that had it reaching 70 kts came from? J.C.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: J.C.]
      #48360 - Fri Aug 19 2005 05:13 PM

J.C.:

A link to the 2pm tropical models (including the 76kt figure): http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05081918

However, this essentially means nothing. The 76kt figure assumed a tropical depression with 25kt winds at the time the information was fed into the model; that was not an accurate representation of reality. (And of course, even if that had been an accurate representation of reality, the 76kt figure would be a tool to help analyze the disturbance, not a hard-and-fast figure to rely upon.)


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48361 - Fri Aug 19 2005 05:21 PM

I see that the 530 TWO did not mention any recon flights for tomorrow, or really give any suggestion that they would be necessary. Makes those "scheduled" flights even stranger.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #48362 - Fri Aug 19 2005 05:47 PM

Quote:

Finally convection holding off Africa. Have to wait to see how the models handle this wave. I know someone posted the models were initializing this wave. I haven't looked yet at the models. Too busy today. Anyways looks like the train is about to leave the station.





Finally? Owell lets hope that your wrong but it looks like it may.


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48363 - Fri Aug 19 2005 06:17 PM

Brad:

They keep the recon flights for tomorrow on book incase they need them, think they are just playing safe. Which the NHC allways does.
dave


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48364 - Fri Aug 19 2005 06:41 PM

For two weeks now people have been saying the African wave train has left the station...i haven't seen it. I think the train is delayed and will be for some time. Funny how the storms look good as they exit the coast but within a day or two they are nothing.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: damejune2]
      #48365 - Fri Aug 19 2005 07:18 PM

Quote:

For two weeks now people have been saying the African wave train has left the station...i haven't seen it. I think the train is delayed and will be for some time. Funny how the storms look good as they exit the coast but within a day or two they are nothing.




I agree we haven't seen much, but interesting the models have also not been predicting much over the atlantic over the past couple weeks.

Currently the GFS model is showing a strong wave coming off Africa that looks to make it across the atlantic with increasing strength. This is the same one that Clark mentioned last week, and looks to bear watching closely.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #48367 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:07 PM

umm....looks like "X-TD10"/wave might be making a comeback tonight. I think there is a surface low trying to develop, near 21n 65w. This may be best chance too see anything happen with the wave in the area. Shear is week and if it holds... then this wave looks like it will head into the eastern/southern GOM. But as of right now i think there is something going on.... there is alot of convection and now that night time has fallen, its going to be hard to tell by sats exactly what's going on. Well, lets see how long storms fire tonight!!!!


It's also weird to see this "Dry air" out over the central/southern Atlantic. WV imagery from els at lsu. The bright area is Drier Air, which most of the time you will not find thuderstoms/tropical waves under. So anything coming off Africa would have a hard time unless this stuff moves or fades away. Now that the epac is blowing up with systems, it's only a matter of time for the atl to follow

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 19 2005 08:20 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #48368 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:25 PM

8:05 PM Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion from NHC.

HE REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 23N69W. TSTM ACTIVITY IS CONSIDERABLE E OF THE
TROUGH WITH A SCATTERED AREA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 63W-67W.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE TROUGH ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK TOWARD
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW MODELS ALSO HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT
BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS LONG AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
STAYS TO THE W OF MOST OF THE TSTMS. AN UPPER HIGH IS BEHIND
THE TROUGH... CENTERED NEAR 26N57W. A FEW TSTMS N FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 56W-66W... A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #48369 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:26 PM

Quote:

umm....looks like "X-TD10"/wave might be making a comeback tonight. I think there is a surface low trying to develop, near 21n 65w. This may be best chance too see anything happen with the wave in the area. Shear is week and if it holds... then this wave looks like it will head into the eastern/southern GOM. But as of right now i think there is something going on.... there is alot of convection and now that night time has fallen, its going to be hard to tell by sats exactly what's going on. Well, lets see how long storms fire tonight!!!!




I'd have to say I agree with you. The convection has looked the best ever, there is some rotation evident (could be MLC only), an anticyclone is building near the system, and conditions look ripe for development. Is this cloud mass the Lazarus of all systems? The 18Z GFS & GFDL models develop a closed low pressure in the FL straits and run it up the west coast of FL while the 12Z NOGAPS closes off a low in the western bahamas and runs it up the SE coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

--------------------
RJB

Edited by Ron Basso (Fri Aug 19 2005 08:41 PM)


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48370 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:44 PM

the point is, its better organi zed than it was last night.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: meto]
      #48371 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:00 PM

Well looks to me like 10 will go below the state as long as it does not develope.Lets hope it stays as is.



================================================================

Red Soxs are like there Fans 1 year wonders
who dont know how to act.


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: meto]
      #48372 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:06 PM

No point, just 2 days ago I posted that if X TD10 didn't change much it would get into the GOM, still not sure as a Wave, TD or a Strom only time will tell.
Dave


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fatmike
Unregistered




Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48373 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:10 PM

This why we should leave the forecasting to the professionals and the wishcasting to the amaueters

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: fatmike]
      #48374 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:17 PM

Amazingly enough i agree with Ralph....i think the wave will stay south of Florida. I too hope it stays south of here and heads into the GOM. We don't need any more coming here - we've had enough.

Question for mets or anyone with more knowledge than i which is pretty much anyone here: Why wouldn't terrain in Haiti and the Dominican Republic hinder developement of a tropical wave and or depression? The terrain there could do wonders to tropical storms and hurricanes, but nothing else; why?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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yanks rule
Unregistered




Re: Don't look now but... [Re: fatmike]
      #48375 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:21 PM

what do u no you not a pro. you probily a red soxs fan
wut do u know, not much cuz you are bandwagon. go post your stupid sports loyalty somewhere else. we do hurricanes here, sucka. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 19 2005 09:34 PM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: damejune2]
      #48376 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:38 PM

Quote:

Amazingly enough i agree with Ralph....i think the wave will stay south of Florida. I too hope it stays south of here and heads into the GOM. We don't need any more coming here - we've had enough.

Question for mets or anyone with more knowledge than i which is pretty much anyone here: Why wouldn't terrain in Haiti and the Dominican Republic hinder developement of a tropical wave and or depression? The terrain there could do wonders to tropical storms and hurricanes, but nothing else; why?




i can't answer your question damian but i can agree with your thoughts, i think x-10 may develope into a TS at most but im gonna agree with the models on the fact that if we have something, it won't be for a while. I think we will have a couple days or so to prepare for the annual active time period from sept 3-12.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: yanks rule]
      #48377 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:44 PM

sports affiliations do not matter when it comes to hurricanes. believe it or not, a hurricane will deliver punishment to you regardless of whether you are a bandwagon yankees fan or a bandwagon red sox fan. or a half drunk dumb redneck braves aficionado like me. now, if you're a good samaritan who sympathizes with hapless teams like the royals or rockies you may be immune to this fact. or not. i think God will be merciful upon the big red machine. heheh.
it's a dumb cliche... the topic is tropic.. it really is, but it's true in CFHC territory. quit whining about somebody who made you feel insecure because they insulted your sports team. last time i checked this is not the central florida red sox haters center. hurricanes are our business. bring it.
HF 0145z20august

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 19 2005 09:45 PM)


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