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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Clark]
      #48440 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:09 PM

Quote:

Well, the feature has been able to maintain thunderstorms for some time now, just not in any organized fashion. It looks like, though, that ex-TD10 might have spun up a mid-level circulation, but the convection will have to maintain itself for some time yet to come before it becomes something really to watch again. Conditions are favorable for something to happen, so I guess my proclamation of it being dead might be premature...only by a little for now.




I did notice a large anticyclone has built over the top of the cloud mass. Numerical models are still not bullish on development. Looks like a good rain maker next week for the peninsula with the wave bumping into the trough coming down from the north. From earlier post, the water temp 100 nm west of Bayport is 89 deg. It's 87 deg at the bouy in the SE gulf at 26N-86W.

--------------------
RJB


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48441 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:25 PM

Don't think it's XTD 10 any more but wave behind it,,,, Read 8:05 PM Discussion

THE REMNANTS OF TD 10 ARE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR TURKS/CAICOS ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT ARE
WEAKENING WITH TIME. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER IT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW OF THE COMPUTER MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOPMENT THIS AREA.. BRINGING IT TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH. FARTHER N.. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 30N56W
TO 24N68W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BENEATH THE TROUGH AXIS THOUGH
THEY ARE QUITE ISOLATED. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.. A MID/UPPER LOW
IS NEAR 28N45W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NNW WITH TROUGH AXIS SSW TO
20N51W. THE GFS SUGGEST THE FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE TROUGH RETREATING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES S OF THE LOW N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W AND E OF
THE LOW N OF 15N W OF 30W.

Seems this is not XTD10
Dave


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48442 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:29 PM

actually Dave I think this has developed in front of the tropical depression formally known as TD 10, IMO

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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Frank P]
      #48443 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:34 PM

Frank:
Hard to say where it developed but is not what was TD10, if this MLC/LLC develops would be called TD 11.

Dave


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Frank P]
      #48444 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:38 PM

xtd 10... yeah, by continuity that would be the weak trough over the bahamas. the mid-level low/convective complex north of puerto rico isn't really in sync with it.. though its origins are quite likely the mlc that sheared off TD 10 as it was approaching the islands and opening up.
twd is mindful of the mid-level low/surface trough associated with the feature near the yucatan. that'll be moving into the BOC tomorrow.. general motion towards the mouth of the rio grande should continue, getting it there around tuesday. it's a watcher at least.
by far the most impressive system in the basin is the 20w wave/low. large waves like that in late august tend to develop. no invest yet but that should be forthcoming. among the three features out there today... two have only modest chances of development.. the east atlantic wave has a much greater chance, but in the long range models unanimously recurve it (climo supports this, but there is a recurvature bias with the globals in these cases). the north atlantic is atypically threat free for august 20th.
HF 0038z21august


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
That Wave [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48445 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:46 PM

Hank:

Agree with you on that wave system in the basin at 20w as you said a lot of things can happen on it's way across the pond. Lets hope this one goes with the Fishes, Does have a mean look to it..

Dave


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: dem05]
      #48446 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:55 PM

Well it is the easiest to remember for offhand calculations. I never knew it was 1.8 F/1C, thxs.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
New Invest 97L [Re: Keith234]
      #48447 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:09 PM

The wave off of Africa is now officially Invest 97L.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: New Invest 97L [Re: h2ocean]
      #48448 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:31 PM

I've been away for the last 2 days. Looks like you all are keeping an EYE on the newest wave.
I went back and looked at my 850mb charts from the morning of the 18th. The wave was clearly defined at that time over West Central Africa.
The streamlines at 12Z on the 18th covered nearly 20 degrees of latitude. Nearly 1200 miles. If the wave is half of that amplitude, it should still be near 600 miles from N to S.
Weather Channel paying close attention to it, and I see from your posts that NRL is also.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: New Invest 97L [Re: danielw]
      #48450 - Sat Aug 20 2005 10:28 PM Attachment (289 downloads)

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005 (edited~danielw)

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC WAVE ALONG 19W/20W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17.5N AND A 1009 MB LOW IS ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THE NORTHERN LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRY AIR N OF 17N E OF 28W SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE.
THIS IS NOT THE CASE FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH IS FORMING SOME CURVED BANDS IN THE ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET. COMPUTER MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-29W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN DAKAR AND 21W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO THE CENTER.
THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/202348.shtml?

**note-I'm not great at reading the upper air balloon reports. Looking at Dakar, Senegal's latest report,21/00Z. This wave had a signature up to near 700mb. Quite Impressive on the Skew-Ts. This coupled with 23kt winds as low as 1800 feet.
Peak winds on this sounding were 36kts at 700mb, or near 10000 ft.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 20 2005 10:41 PM)


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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
Re: New Invest 97L [Re: danielw]
      #48451 - Sat Aug 20 2005 11:14 PM

I agree, it should form but wait till maybe 50 W so it may be more productive in yardage and maybe scoring a touchdown I mean landfall. As mentioned above, history is strongly against any named storm brewing deep into cape verde territory making it into US territory as the models are agreeing (except the EURO http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5082012!!!step/ )... Im tired of this promising 2005 atlantic hurricane team all wanting to go fishing with the exception of the key gulf players. Maybe they should take some tips from the GOM members who seem much more valuable players. My advice to 97L is play smart or you're going to get benched and sent fishing.

From local news channel...

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/weather/5dayforecast.aspx

Quote:

JACKSONVILLE, FL -- How neat is this? Here we are in the middle of peek hurricane season, when we see one storm after the other forming, and yet there's nothing out there? Maybe all the energy got used up in the first half that there's hardly any left to use.






Hmmm.... is this a cancellation of hurricane season altogether?!!
i think you know better. the warmer than average SSTs are there, it's just a matter of the pattern reverting to what we had in july. the idea that gulf storms are 'valuable' is a little cracked, though. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 12:34 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
last call [Re: Jekyhe904]
      #48456 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:59 AM

a'ite, a few thoughts:
xtd 10 is a convective complex curved next to a weak mid-level vortex. A for persistence, D for form. it's only trudging west, either waiting to develop or do nothing. something i do expect to hear from JB on monday is how with the strong typhoon threatening japan, the teleconnection will be for this sucker to spin up and threaten the SE. it has to do more than sputter for that to happen, but those ensembles he was showing last week weren't kidding around... the pattern does support something being there.
the yucatan area feature is crossing, and will be into the BOC tomorrow. should continue to track wnw, probably a NE mexico thing. it has a day or two to spin up... enough models are suggesting it tries that to merit attention. it'll have a building ridge to the north, so it coming up to texas is on the unlikely side.
97L.. one of those massive late aug/early sept type waves... has all kinds of model support. i expect this thing will start developing in the next day or two, and probably start into one of those w/wnw tracks for a few days. if it develops east of 40w it'll likely be slated for recurvature. on the other hand, if it stays weak for a few days it'll have a different set of circumstances late next week as it nears a projected weakness in the central atlantic.
should see jose named this week. maybe more if the basin responds to eastpac activity (but with the typhoons going active in the westpac, it shouldn't favor a large burst of activity).
time to snooze. happy b-day to coop, by the way.
HF 0459z21august

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 01:11 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: last call [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48457 - Sun Aug 21 2005 01:13 AM

Interesting to note that it may not be the marker of another quiet period in this basin with regards to WPac activity. There are two storms out there, but both of them have subtropical (at least not purely tropical) origins, both small features forming along 20N. While there are indications of another active MJO phase setting up in the Indian Ocean and extreme WPac, I'm not sure these two can be tied to the tropical modes of development/climatological predictors. After 97L, things should be relatively quiet in terms of easterly waves, though there are two over the continent now that will bear watching.

Will be interesting to see what pans out...unless all three features on the board now develop, which the odds are really against that, I don't think we'll break 12 for the month unless there's a flurry on the last day or two of the month. There's just not enough out there worth watching.

Some of the models are trying to spin-up something in the Gulf Stream later this week in conjunction with a strong frontal boundary passing through the SE. It bears watching -- might even capture some of ex-TD 10's pieces -- to see if this trend continues. Waters are certainly warm enough and it wouldn't be the first time we see tropical development off of the end of a frontal boundary. Got a hunch with the way they've been coming into the SE this year, plus the warm waters, that we might be setting up for an active Gulf season into September and October. I fear for anything that hits the Loop Current...it's been strong all year long, with all of the N. Gulf storms missing it so far. Alas, only time will tell.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: last call [Re: Clark]
      #48459 - Sun Aug 21 2005 02:47 AM

To me it looks like we are already seeing rotation off the new African wave:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

NHC TWD (2am):
FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1011
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE LOW HAS CURVED BANDS ON
THE ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION.
THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
19W-22W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

-----------

The system near the gulf doesn't look so great right now, but the 2am TWD still says they expect it to develop.


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48460 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:12 AM Attachment (326 downloads)

Wind scat shows some type of circulation in 97invest near 13 north right off africa. Look at my attachment.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 97 Invest [Re: NONAME]
      #48461 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:23 AM

here's the latest IR loop I could find on it... this thing is very large and could be the real deal...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Frank P]
      #48462 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:35 AM

That Hilary in the eastern pacific has really strong convection just take a look for your self.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.

Edited by NONAME (Sun Aug 21 2005 07:36 AM)


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John03
Unregistered




Re: 97 Invest [Re: NONAME]
      #48463 - Sun Aug 21 2005 09:40 AM

nice flare up of storm over the yucatan of mexico....over land now, but looks like there could be something there

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: 97 Invest [Re: John03]
      #48464 - Sun Aug 21 2005 10:34 AM

I'm waiting for the 11am update of the TWO, but until then, there is the TWD from a couple hours ago. It looks like conditions are good for both the soon-to-enter-the-GOM and the east Atlantic waves to form Tropical Cyclones. It looks like it is the start of the first of the busy weeks. Been an unusually quiet August...looks like that is about to change.

Also, we can't forget about the Bay of Campeche wave. That is taking a track very similar to what Gert took. While NHC isn't talking about development of it yet, it still has a ways to go before it finishes crossing the Yucatan,

--RC

--------------

From the 805 AM TWD:

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING IS
NOTED WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION.
THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

---------------

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
WIND SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THIS
AREA..


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48466 - Sun Aug 21 2005 11:28 AM

'quiet' augusts of late:
1996: first august storm 'dolly' on august 19. three more by month's end.
1997: really quiet. nada.
1998: first august storm 'bonnie' on august 19. three more by month's end.
1999: first august storm 'bret' on august 18. again, three more by month's end.
2000: last august storm 'debby' on august 19. three before that.
2001: spread of three storms, all tropical storms. barry on august 2nd, chantal on august 14th, dean on august 22nd. very active september and october.
2002: two tropical storms early, one more late. very active september.
2003: erika on august 14th. fabian and grace at month's end. nine more named storms after august.
2004: insane august. not quiet at all; seven systems developed during the month.
2005: as of august 21st.. two named storms.
eight of these seasons had three named storms. one had none, one had seven. it isn't infeasible that this year will produce a couple more august storms.
HF 1528z21august


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