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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: 97 Invest [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48467 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:07 PM

It seems to me that NHC's TAFB people and those at the TWO desk aren't talking too well today

Wave near Puerto Rico:
TAFB TWD 8am: THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
TWO 11am: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

Yucatan wave:
TAFB TWD 8am: WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE no mention of development
TWO 11am: SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO

So which is it? I realize TWO is 3 hours more recent, but generally there aren't major changes between the two sources. Each one talks about the same waves doing nearly the same things usually. This time it seems very divergent in their forcasts!


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48469 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:22 PM

TAFB and the NHC are in the same building, but the forecasters at each can occasionally disagree on various aspects of development for any disturbance -- just like you see some here disagree from time to time.

As for the first disturbance, the NHC TWO primarily focuses on one to two days out, whereas the TWD -- if it ever mentions development -- will usually only mention the conditions that could lead to development. The TWD is generally just a discussion of what is occurring and what the overall features might do, not so much a discussion of whether a tropical cyclone will develop. That's where the TWO comes in. It's got favorable upper-level conditions and warm waters ahead of it, as noted, but it's also the time of year that anything that moves into such a region needs to be watched. The NHC just doesn't think it'll happen within 2 days.

With the second disturbance, you see more of what the TWD is about and how it should complement the TWO. With most features overland with that disturbance and less organization than seen with Bret or Gert at this point, they aren't going to hammer home about it's chances in the TWD. Given those two prior storms, however, and the forcing provided by the tropical wave, the NHC has to watch it closely. Based off of persistence and climatology, they suggest something could get going once it mvoes out over water. It's purposefully vauge, though.

BTW, while we're talking about products here, just a friendly reminder to everyone on the board that if you are going to copy/paste NHC products into a post on the board, just do the parts that you need to accentuate your discussion, as RC did in the post I'm replying to. Please do not copy/paste the entire product; instead, use a link. Thanks!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48470 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:27 PM

Looks like the news of the day is the wave that just came off Africa.Really does look good.It will be interesting to see what happens with this one next week.On a different note,We may have a record month in Oct.,given the very warm waters.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: 97 Invest [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48472 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:38 PM

Well it's an odd pattern where development is inevitable, and competition believe it or not could become a limiting factor. Africa becomes moist, SAL is not a problem, no significant TUTT's, SST's warm, the whole nine yards. The wave coming off Africa is just too south to recurve, I think that the further west it goes the better chance for development. We also have that feature north of Hispanola, which is also a prime candidate for development, and that area of presistent diffluence off the SC is getting fishy given the pattern.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Keith234]
      #48473 - Sun Aug 21 2005 02:28 PM

For interests in FL and the Gulf perhaps a few disconcerting model runs.

12z Euro: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082112!!/

00z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation (Edit: Just saw the 12Z run and it looks more realistic http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...hour=Animation)

06 GFS also thought provoking (though the 12Z run has moved away from that idea)

There is still some thunderstorm activity there, as shown by the bit of a flareup last few frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

For now I'll file that under, "things that make me go hmmm." Pending future runs, perhaps the end of this week/this time next week we will see some interesting developments. As has been noted approximately 800,000 times, the water temps are hot , so it is possible. The explosion in the CMC seems a bit too bullish, but we'll see.



Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Aug 21 2005 02:46 PM)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48474 - Sun Aug 21 2005 03:34 PM

When are they going to start getting Dvorak t-numbers for 97L it is an invest so they should have started right.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Convergence
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48475 - Sun Aug 21 2005 03:55 PM

What the heck is that feature off of the SC coast? It just looks like a blob of convection that has undergone almost no change over the past 6 hours or so.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48476 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:01 PM

Quote:

For interests in FL and the Gulf perhaps a few disconcerting model runs.

12z Euro: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082112!!/


00z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation (Edit: Just saw the 12Z run and it looks more realistic http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...hour=Animation)

06 GFS also thought provoking (though the 12Z run has moved away from that idea)

There is still some thunderstorm activity there, as shown by the bit of a flareup last few frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

For now I'll file that under, "things that make me go hmmm." Pending future runs, perhaps the end of this week/this time next week we will see some interesting developments. As has been noted approximately 800,000 times, the water temps are hot , so it is possible. The explosion in the CMC seems a bit too bullish, but we'll see.





Interesting Big Red. All the globals are at least developing weak low pressure around S FL by friday with some offering development in the eastern GOM. Convection today has again flared up with the wave. The CMC was ominous but this explaination from HPC this pm:

DAY 3 WAVE OVER SRN FL/WRN CUBA REFLECTS YDAYS COORDINATION WITH
TPC REGARDING WHAT REMAINS OF FORMER T.D. 10. WHETHER FROM THIS
FEATURE AND/OR ANOTHER UPSTREAM... OP/ENS GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF SRN FL BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CANADIAN IS THE EXCEPTION WITH A MUCH
STRONGER LOW....BUT CANADIAN HAS IN THE PAST HAD AN AFFINITY FOR
OVER AMPLIFICATION OF GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEMS. FOR NOW
WILL NOT DEPICT A WELL DEFINED FEATURE...BUT WILL KEEP A SPOT LOW
OVER SRN FLORIDA SINCE ALL MODELS CONCUR THIS MORNING

--------------------
RJB


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48477 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:44 PM

Where is the low level center or the low preasure center to 97L does it have any curculation yet and what is the chance it could fallow a track. Like Ivan and When are they going to start getting Dvorak estimates on it?

how are you going to be a meteorologist when you can't spell pressure and circulation. follow? dude, i know you can do better. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 08:11 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 97 Invest [Re: NONAME]
      #48478 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:49 PM

The strongest banding is near 13N/24W, though convection is sparse in that area. It's best shot is if the low tries to reform near 12N/25-26W, nearer the deep convection. It's a large system, so it will take some time to get going...think of how long it took Hilary to get going (about 3 days before it developed) and that sounds about right. The 12Z TAFB surface analysis analyzed a 1012mb low there; it's been oscillating between 1009-1012mb the past day or so. They'll start Dvorak estimates on it once they feel they are needed. Chances are that it will be one for the fish, but it's just too early to tell.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Clark]
      #48479 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:53 PM

Clark/and or/ any mod/met "What are the Factor that would cause 97 to go out to sea or go west and if it did become a storm what are the chance it would be larger than the eastern pacifics hilary because she is about the size of the gulf of mexico so if this thing get going it would be a huge system I think."

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.

Edited by NONAME (Sun Aug 21 2005 04:55 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Convergence]
      #48480 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:56 PM

As I noted, it seems to be some form of dirunal convection diffluence thing. Much like a mosoonal wind. I'm not sure if anything will come from it, but in such a undramatic pause there is drama in tthe following scene.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: last call [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48481 - Sun Aug 21 2005 05:00 PM

Good to hear if the Yucatan Pen. thing gets into the Gulf it would head toward NE Mexico. A ridge will keep it away from Texas is your way of thinking?

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48482 - Sun Aug 21 2005 05:29 PM

Yup Ron, the trends definitely seem to be pointing to a closed low, of some intensity around S. FL this weekend, likely pushing SW across the state and into the Gulf. We can add the 12Z UK to that line of thinking http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Pretty big explosion of storms on IR with the area in question. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Aug 21 2005 05:33 PM)


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48483 - Sun Aug 21 2005 05:53 PM

Ya but that has nothing to do with 97L. That model as most takes 97L out to sea. I think the models are developing a low from an old trof/wave. As for 97L who knows where that will go.Till it develops.

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Possible BOC system [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #48485 - Sun Aug 21 2005 05:59 PM

Hey guys,
as the TWO from NHC indicates, the system over the SW Yucatan is getting better organised. Visible imagery shows a well organised circulation with clear banding features. The actual 'centre' is currentlyinland but should move offshore tonight. It certainly looks as if this will develop once the system is actually over the BOC. However, i dont expect rapid development / intensification due to its proximity to land. However, i do beleive we will see TD11 / TS Jose by Monday with this system.

The disturbed weather north of PR has been around for days now, and at least it has persistence going for it. I dont see much significant development for a day or two, but it might need to be watched if it makes it to the GOM.

The strong wave and low pressure area south of the CV Islands remains a prominent feature, but looks like it is gonna need at least a day or two to actually get organised. Certainly has potential though.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Possible BOC system [Re: Rich B]
      #48486 - Sun Aug 21 2005 06:15 PM

NHC has tasked an INVEST Flight for 18Z tomorrow.
The Bay Of Campeche is the target area.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 22/1800Z
D. 20.0N 93.0W
E. 22/2000Z TO 22/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 23/0230Z
D. 20.0N 94.5W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HOURLY FIXES IF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 97 Invest [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #48488 - Sun Aug 21 2005 06:53 PM

Lonny, I was not referring to 97L, I was referring to a system north of Hispaniola. Perhaps I should have made this clearer in my posts. With several areas out there it can get a tad confusing.

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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
Re: 97 Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48489 - Sun Aug 21 2005 06:55 PM

Yeah, lots of models hinting at development somewhere around florida and Accuweather is hanging onto the idea of something happening off the SE coast ... though they still refer to it as TD10 but I think we may see it become 98L instead then TD11.

Now if the system forms off the southeast coast/gulf, and the system forms in the Yucatan, wouldnt these further erode the atlantic high when they decided to lift north later and provide 97L with a fishing trip??

One other question----Anyone seen tropical model run information on 97L?? I find it hard to believe there have been no runs in now 24 hrs but I cant find anything on it.


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: 97 Invest *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48490 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:09 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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