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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Undramatic Pause
      #48335 - Fri Aug 19 2005 01:08 PM

Some requests were made for a new thread, so I'm obliging.. even though we haven't milked the last one for all it's worth.
Irene departed to colder climes yesterday, ending the 2 1/2 weeks we'd had of there being an active system in the North Atlantic basin. Right now there are only a couple things of interest in the basin. One is the remnant of TD 10 which is still cantering towards the Bahamas... it is barely present. Most of the global models are showing lower pressures in the Western Caribbean migrating towards the Gulf... there is no strong feature apparent to take advantage of this predicted environment.
The African wave train is behaving more like the African dust train; waves have been weak and are losing definition as they move off.. in recent days. Some of the models show a stronger wave this weekend, but we'll just have to wait and see. It is that time of the year.
For the weekend, the prospects of a system are fairly low... unless something changes dramatically. Enjoy the peace and quiet, because it's usually hard to come by in late August.
HF

(reposted to fix links)
Event Related Links
General Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin

Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 21 2005 07:44 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48336 - Fri Aug 19 2005 01:39 PM

I like the new thread title. An "undramatic pause" is what we need in NW Florida. The good news is that they hope to have mail delivery back to Pensacola beach by Sept, and FEMA trailers can now return. Yesterday Ivan was reclassified as the second most costly hurricane in US history. A large portion of Santa Rosa Island has actually moved north 50 yards because of Ivan and Dennis. Swimming has become dangerous because of "sinkholes " forming in the surf along the shore. Just testamonial as to how the effects of a major storm can go on for years.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48337 - Fri Aug 19 2005 01:53 PM

From Tampa Bay NWS PM Disc:

BY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DGEX SHOW REMNANTS OF TD #10 MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE OUT TO THE NORTH KEEPING IT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA. IF THE GFS/DGEX SOLUTION PANS OUT...OR IF THIS SYSTEMS GETS BETTER ORGANIZED THEN WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS IN LATER FORECASTS...

Let's hope so - this is supposed to be the rainy season. I have recorded a paltry 1.3 in of rain so far for August on the west coast of FL.

--------------------
RJB


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48338 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:08 PM

I saw that earlier myself. Do you happen to know a link to the NAM model they mentioned? Or is it a model that isn't available to the public?

--------------------------------------

still learning and learning and learning


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48339 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:25 PM

HF, or anyone!!

Can you explain why the RECON flights for the 20/21?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 20/1800Z A. 21/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0210A INVEST B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE
C. 20/1600Z C. 21/0930Z
D. 22.5N 71.0W D. 22.5N 74.5W
E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2130Z E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

Edited by The Force 2005 (Fri Aug 19 2005 02:27 PM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48340 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:36 PM

We had 2 In 2 days.We don't need more rain and im only 50 miles from you its hit and miss in Fl some get it some don't.

http://weathercenter.com/forecast/discussion.htm

This link will give you all that you posted and more about what they think enjoy.

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 19 2005 02:37 PM)


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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
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NAM Model (was Undramatic Pause) [Re: Hootowl]
      #48341 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:42 PM

Quote:

I saw that earlier myself. Do you happen to know a link to the NAM model they mentioned? Or is it a model that isn't available to the public?



Went searching for this quick and found it at:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/greenstein/models.htm

Also found this linked right off of it...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
Looks like I'm going to have a little fun playing...

Jax Chris


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 365
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: The Force 2005]
      #48342 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:47 PM

Well that certainly is interesting and surprising. The recon schedule reflects that it was issued at 1pm EDT today. Definitely seems odd, given the current appearance of TD10's remnants and the discussion of it in the 205 pm NHC discussion.

I can't offer any real answer as to why, but I guess there are 3 main possibilities: error (e.g., prepared yesterday, but not intended to be issued unless the area maintained some organization); issued in an abundance of caution (seems odd--in the unlikely event of re-organization, could get a flight out with or without such a plan existing); plan to use as training missions if former TD 10 is still unorganized (seems odd, too; there are plenty of other training missions, and, given the limited budget, plenty of opportunities for real investigation undoubtedly on the horizon).


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NONAME
Weather Guru


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Posts: 136
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48343 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:50 PM

Navy Put 10 back up know could it possbly still reoganize.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48344 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:55 PM

Boy, has anyone taken a look at the Wave rolling off the African coast. This looks like the one the global models have been advertising for the last week. Pretty impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: NONAME]
      #48345 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:55 PM

Of course it could reorganize, but is it likely enough to plan recon for the next 2 days? I doubt it. Now I'm curious enough to poke around the models to see if there's been some change that would serve as the basis for that plan.

If I'm reading this correctly, I see in today's recon reports that there was a high-altitude flight somewhere in the general vicinity of TD10's remnants that sent back 4 recon reports. I wouldn't have even paid any attention to that, or gone looking for it, but I guess there's some small chance that resulted in some sort of thought that there is a little more possibililty of regeneration?

I know I keep writing this, but this seems odd.

Edited by Brad in Miami (Fri Aug 19 2005 02:56 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48346 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:59 PM

There is some circulation within the remnants- it may be a case of better being safe then sorry if nature pulls a surprise.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: The Force 2005]
      #48347 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:04 PM

They probably have a budgeted minimum amount for this month that they need to use up.
Anyway wave height signatures pick up that strong signal that will be moving off the african coast: http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/nata.html
as do all of the models. Which will probably be the next topic of discussion if the energizer bunny, north of PR, doesn't get a new set of duracells.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #48348 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:05 PM

Yeah, I suspect you're right rmbjoe. It does look a little better than it did this morning (although it couldn't have looked much worse), and the 2pm run of the tropical models puts whatever is left of the remnants in the general vicinity of where those 2 flights are planned. (Actually, initializing the system as a 25 kt depression - which obviously it is not - SHPS brought it to 70-some kts in 72 hours. Of course that means very little, if anything, in light of the disturbance's current lack of organization.)

Still seems odd to me, though.


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Big Red Machine
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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48349 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:23 PM

It is a bit odd. I guess if they figure they're going to have to fly home anyway, they might as well fly through it? Storm does look better on IR this afternoon (better being relative... it's not hard to look better than it did earlier). I believe if the remains were to resurrect, it would be somewhere in the ballpark of 67 W/20 N. I wouldn't count on it (in fact I really don't see it happening at all), but with the warm water temps, I guess anything is possible...

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newbie
Unregistered




Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: ralphfl]
      #48350 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:25 PM

50 mile from where in fla

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Big Red Machine
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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48351 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:29 PM

18z models like to push the remains of 10 into the gulf. If I'm not mistaken, high pressure is supposed to set up across FL during this time, meaning (correct me please) that if old TD 10 were to somehow survive enough to get into the Gulf (and I shudder to think with those temps) that it would likely head toward Texas or LA.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Loc: Georgia Tech
Don't look now but... [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48352 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:57 PM

No, I'm not trying to wishcast here
but I think there's a LLC at 21N 64.5W or so
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

it's weak, but I think the convection managed to create another low pressure center. Of course, one good puff of wind would kill it again... but... the environment looks a little more favorable this time around. though there's still some shear over the system...

just my thoughts
(I thought I saw it a a couple of hours ago but was hesitant... but now I'm a little more confident so I thought I'd mention it.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #48353 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:04 PM

I thought the same thing, and I agree with you. I am almost always wrong, so I think
we are good there
Will be nice to get confirmation tho....
It can be seen a little better on Ramsdis

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: NewWatcher]
      #48355 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:15 PM

There is no surface circulation at the point you mention. There is a spin there, but it is above the surface. The very weak center of surface rotation near 21.5N 68W continues to move wnw and in its wake it is pulling a uniform southeasterly surface flow underneath the mid-level spin. It will be very difficult for any surface low to form under the mid-level spin in this scenario. It is not impossible, but the process would be quite slow.

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48356 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:17 PM

Quote:

From Tampa Bay NWS PM Disc:

BY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DGEX SHOW REMNANTS OF TD #10 MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE OUT TO THE NORTH KEEPING IT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA. IF THE GFS/DGEX SOLUTION PANS OUT...OR IF THIS SYSTEMS GETS BETTER ORGANIZED THEN WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS IN LATER FORECASTS...





Are they kidding??? I hope for you that it pans out for your much needed rain. But, IMHO, (no pun intended here) I don't think that GFS/DGEX solution holds much water. XTD10 remnants looks like nothing more than mish mosh.

Yes, that's an offical meteorological term : mish mosh....feel free to use it.

I'm out like TD10. Have a great weekend everyone.


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
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Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48357 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:26 PM

Finally convection holding off Africa. Have to wait to see how the models handle this wave. I know someone posted the models were initializing this wave. I haven't looked yet at the models. Too busy today. Anyways looks like the train is about to leave the station.

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J.C.
Unregistered




Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: NONAME]
      #48359 - Fri Aug 19 2005 05:02 PM

It is interesting to note that both the navy and NHC are both hinting around to not giving up on this system. Again I refer to climatolgy. Is it not getting ready to enter an area where we see storms have cyclogenesis? Could this be the reason for the continued interest. I noticed at 5am there was no mention of #10 at all , then at 11am they mentioned it again. My thought now is if this area is able to get w or wnw for another 6 to 12 hrs it just might do something. Also wonder where that report from shps came from that had it reaching 70 kts came from? J.C.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: J.C.]
      #48360 - Fri Aug 19 2005 05:13 PM

J.C.:

A link to the 2pm tropical models (including the 76kt figure): http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05081918

However, this essentially means nothing. The 76kt figure assumed a tropical depression with 25kt winds at the time the information was fed into the model; that was not an accurate representation of reality. (And of course, even if that had been an accurate representation of reality, the 76kt figure would be a tool to help analyze the disturbance, not a hard-and-fast figure to rely upon.)


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48361 - Fri Aug 19 2005 05:21 PM

I see that the 530 TWO did not mention any recon flights for tomorrow, or really give any suggestion that they would be necessary. Makes those "scheduled" flights even stranger.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #48362 - Fri Aug 19 2005 05:47 PM

Quote:

Finally convection holding off Africa. Have to wait to see how the models handle this wave. I know someone posted the models were initializing this wave. I haven't looked yet at the models. Too busy today. Anyways looks like the train is about to leave the station.





Finally? Owell lets hope that your wrong but it looks like it may.


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Old Sailor
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Reged: Mon
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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48363 - Fri Aug 19 2005 06:17 PM

Brad:

They keep the recon flights for tomorrow on book incase they need them, think they are just playing safe. Which the NHC allways does.
dave


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damejune2
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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48364 - Fri Aug 19 2005 06:41 PM

For two weeks now people have been saying the African wave train has left the station...i haven't seen it. I think the train is delayed and will be for some time. Funny how the storms look good as they exit the coast but within a day or two they are nothing.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: damejune2]
      #48365 - Fri Aug 19 2005 07:18 PM

Quote:

For two weeks now people have been saying the African wave train has left the station...i haven't seen it. I think the train is delayed and will be for some time. Funny how the storms look good as they exit the coast but within a day or two they are nothing.




I agree we haven't seen much, but interesting the models have also not been predicting much over the atlantic over the past couple weeks.

Currently the GFS model is showing a strong wave coming off Africa that looks to make it across the atlantic with increasing strength. This is the same one that Clark mentioned last week, and looks to bear watching closely.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #48367 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:07 PM

umm....looks like "X-TD10"/wave might be making a comeback tonight. I think there is a surface low trying to develop, near 21n 65w. This may be best chance too see anything happen with the wave in the area. Shear is week and if it holds... then this wave looks like it will head into the eastern/southern GOM. But as of right now i think there is something going on.... there is alot of convection and now that night time has fallen, its going to be hard to tell by sats exactly what's going on. Well, lets see how long storms fire tonight!!!!


It's also weird to see this "Dry air" out over the central/southern Atlantic. WV imagery from els at lsu. The bright area is Drier Air, which most of the time you will not find thuderstoms/tropical waves under. So anything coming off Africa would have a hard time unless this stuff moves or fades away. Now that the epac is blowing up with systems, it's only a matter of time for the atl to follow

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 19 2005 08:20 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #48368 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:25 PM

8:05 PM Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion from NHC.

HE REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 23N69W. TSTM ACTIVITY IS CONSIDERABLE E OF THE
TROUGH WITH A SCATTERED AREA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 63W-67W.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE TROUGH ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK TOWARD
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW MODELS ALSO HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT
BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS LONG AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
STAYS TO THE W OF MOST OF THE TSTMS. AN UPPER HIGH IS BEHIND
THE TROUGH... CENTERED NEAR 26N57W. A FEW TSTMS N FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 56W-66W... A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE


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Ron Basso
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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #48369 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:26 PM

Quote:

umm....looks like "X-TD10"/wave might be making a comeback tonight. I think there is a surface low trying to develop, near 21n 65w. This may be best chance too see anything happen with the wave in the area. Shear is week and if it holds... then this wave looks like it will head into the eastern/southern GOM. But as of right now i think there is something going on.... there is alot of convection and now that night time has fallen, its going to be hard to tell by sats exactly what's going on. Well, lets see how long storms fire tonight!!!!




I'd have to say I agree with you. The convection has looked the best ever, there is some rotation evident (could be MLC only), an anticyclone is building near the system, and conditions look ripe for development. Is this cloud mass the Lazarus of all systems? The 18Z GFS & GFDL models develop a closed low pressure in the FL straits and run it up the west coast of FL while the 12Z NOGAPS closes off a low in the western bahamas and runs it up the SE coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

--------------------
RJB

Edited by Ron Basso (Fri Aug 19 2005 08:41 PM)


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meto
Weather Guru


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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48370 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:44 PM

the point is, its better organi zed than it was last night.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: meto]
      #48371 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:00 PM

Well looks to me like 10 will go below the state as long as it does not develope.Lets hope it stays as is.



================================================================

Red Soxs are like there Fans 1 year wonders
who dont know how to act.


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Old Sailor
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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: meto]
      #48372 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:06 PM

No point, just 2 days ago I posted that if X TD10 didn't change much it would get into the GOM, still not sure as a Wave, TD or a Strom only time will tell.
Dave


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fatmike
Unregistered




Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48373 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:10 PM

This why we should leave the forecasting to the professionals and the wishcasting to the amaueters

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damejune2
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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: fatmike]
      #48374 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:17 PM

Amazingly enough i agree with Ralph....i think the wave will stay south of Florida. I too hope it stays south of here and heads into the GOM. We don't need any more coming here - we've had enough.

Question for mets or anyone with more knowledge than i which is pretty much anyone here: Why wouldn't terrain in Haiti and the Dominican Republic hinder developement of a tropical wave and or depression? The terrain there could do wonders to tropical storms and hurricanes, but nothing else; why?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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yanks rule
Unregistered




Re: Don't look now but... [Re: fatmike]
      #48375 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:21 PM

what do u no you not a pro. you probily a red soxs fan
wut do u know, not much cuz you are bandwagon. go post your stupid sports loyalty somewhere else. we do hurricanes here, sucka. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 19 2005 09:34 PM)


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Ryan
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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: damejune2]
      #48376 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:38 PM

Quote:

Amazingly enough i agree with Ralph....i think the wave will stay south of Florida. I too hope it stays south of here and heads into the GOM. We don't need any more coming here - we've had enough.

Question for mets or anyone with more knowledge than i which is pretty much anyone here: Why wouldn't terrain in Haiti and the Dominican Republic hinder developement of a tropical wave and or depression? The terrain there could do wonders to tropical storms and hurricanes, but nothing else; why?




i can't answer your question damian but i can agree with your thoughts, i think x-10 may develope into a TS at most but im gonna agree with the models on the fact that if we have something, it won't be for a while. I think we will have a couple days or so to prepare for the annual active time period from sept 3-12.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: yanks rule]
      #48377 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:44 PM

sports affiliations do not matter when it comes to hurricanes. believe it or not, a hurricane will deliver punishment to you regardless of whether you are a bandwagon yankees fan or a bandwagon red sox fan. or a half drunk dumb redneck braves aficionado like me. now, if you're a good samaritan who sympathizes with hapless teams like the royals or rockies you may be immune to this fact. or not. i think God will be merciful upon the big red machine. heheh.
it's a dumb cliche... the topic is tropic.. it really is, but it's true in CFHC territory. quit whining about somebody who made you feel insecure because they insulted your sports team. last time i checked this is not the central florida red sox haters center. hurricanes are our business. bring it.
HF 0145z20august

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 19 2005 09:45 PM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: yanks rule]
      #48379 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:50 PM

Quote:

what do u no you not a pro. you probily a red soxs fan
wut do u know, not much cuz you are bandwagon. go post your stupid sports loyalty somewhere else. we do hurricanes here, sucka. -HF





Anyone who posts under a different non regestered name instead of there own should be ashamed at thereselfs.Sad when someone who i am pretty sure has a main ID but wants to post junk under a non regestered name.

Log on to your main name then ill respect your comments.Or at least talk about the hurricane season which is the way i like ti nice and slow.

========================================================

yawn don't go into the fire unless you can take the heat.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: ralphfl]
      #48380 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:55 PM

i get more upset with the posts that say Finally something coming off africa that may hold.

That is people who want storms to form and when they do they affect someone in someway even if its a fish it does go somewhere and causes grief.

So i do get offended when someone posts a stupid remark like FINALLY something coming off africa.Even more the fans of teams i dislike.



=========================================================

Best movie Anger Management...Red Soxs fans who seen the movie know why!!

no more sports baiting, ralph. did i stutter?

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 19 2005 10:07 PM)


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48381 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:58 PM

Quote:

sports affiliations do not matter when it comes to hurricanes. believe it or not, a hurricane will deliver punishment to you regardless of whether you are a bandwagon yankees fan or a bandwagon red sox fan. or a half drunk dumb redneck braves aficionado like me. now, if you're a good samaritan who sympathizes with hapless teams like the royals or rockies you may be immune to this fact. or not. i think God will be merciful upon the big red machine. heheh.
it's a dumb cliche... the topic is tropic.. it really is, but it's true in CFHC territory. quit whining about somebody who made you feel insecure because they insulted your sports team. last time i checked this is not the central florida red sox haters center. hurricanes are our business. bring it.
HF 0145z20august




That's right , bandwagon... the word that's never used to describe Reds fans. Long suffering? Yes, that's frequently used. Bandwagon, not unless there's a Reds fan saying... they blew the lead again?? Somebody run over me with a band wagon.

In fact, I don't even put up plywood anymore. If a storm threatens, I just hang up a big Reds banner. Sometimes I even hang a Bengals banner next to it for good measure.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48382 - Fri Aug 19 2005 10:19 PM

lol big red machine..what do you think since they feel bad the hurricane will say aahhh give the guy who likes the bad sports teams a break..lol funnyy stuff

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48387 - Fri Aug 19 2005 10:55 PM

Way too much testosterone in the threads guys....chill out & let's keep it on topic...which is tropic. Thanks HF for trying to put a kabosh on it....

When I think of XTD 10 and the persistancy of it to hang onto life (similar traits to others before it this year) it's unbelievable. Like they say...:it must be something in the water." I'm sorry but, I don't rememer (translation: I'm too lazy) as to who posted their concerns with XTD 10 remnants or whatever it may be/become entering the GOM...I saw a stat yesterday the the SST off of Tampa/St. Pete area was 89 degrees! Yikes...that's high octane stuff there. I'll see if I can hunt down that link again and post later. And yeah, it's weird how this thing keeps reinventing itself while we're all sleeping. You never know what you're going to wake up to...


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inflworried
Unregistered




Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48388 - Fri Aug 19 2005 10:56 PM

Is this a closed circulation try to form for the pheonix known as x-10?


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
EPAC [Re: inflworried]
      #48389 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:10 PM

looks liek the EPAC is looking to get it's lead back..its been extremely active in the last couple of weeks..Tropical Storm Hilary is expeced to become a hurricane late saturday or early sunday, as of now, it's not expected to affect land because it is moving away from the mexican coast. We'll have to see if the activity doesnt spread into the Atlantic, thats the last thing we need.

Edit -- Ryan and all....please, can we end the baseball debate with the signatures, real or not? If you want to debate baseball here, please take it to PMs or to the "Everything & Nothing" forum. Thanks! -Clark
Who Will Have A more Active Season
You may choose only one
Atlantic-Carib-GOM
Eastern Pacific


Votes accepted from (Fri Aug 19 2005 11:10 PM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Clark (Fri Aug 19 2005 11:26 PM)


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Hootowl]
      #48390 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:11 PM

Hootowl,
You previously asked for a NAM model. I believe I found what you were looking for in my "model stash"
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html

On XTD10, I'm clueless as to what it is gonna do. The models are in constant confliction* with each other. I just hope the rest of the seasons storms aren't gonna be so finicky, I'm gonna have an anxiety attack.
PS..By saying that, I am not wishcasting. I just wish we knew a little more a lot quicker.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Posts: 435
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Floridacane]
      #48391 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:21 PM

I dunno i like the way it is acting.


Wish every storm the rest of the season does the same.

Even if it did develop(just for you hank)it would not develop fast and i don't think IMO it would get very far so let them all act like TD 10 did and we all will be pretty safe IMO.


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: ralphfl]
      #48392 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:31 PM

I guess I am just ancy from last year. I had never been through a cane before and to get 2 within such a short period wasn't how I wanted to be introduced. What I am saying is that the storms so far have been hit by a lot of negative factors and they are way to resilliant. Days ago, I wasn't giving a second thought to XTD10, It's just one big tug-o-war with Mother Nature. Yesterday, most of the models were dissolving this system, tonight they are putting through the Florida Straits, some pulling it north. What will tommorrow bring?

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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imnotsignedinnow
Unregistered




Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Floridacane]
      #48393 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:39 PM

so is this a boring season or what? im actually pretty pleasantly surprised that weve had so little threats this far into the season. were 10 days from sept and wow! not much happening. maybe we will have a quiet season.

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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Floridacane]
      #48394 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:47 PM

Floridacane- I for one understand your anxiety, I was hit twice in 3 weeks so I know anything is possible with these storms.I think Mother Nature just likes to remind us she is in charge. I really don't know what will happen with TD10 we will just have to wait and see what happens

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: imnotsignedinnow]
      #48395 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:47 PM

Boring? I'm not so sure about that. On the whole we are way above normal this year. In the past decade on average we've had 4 storms at this point in the season. This year we've had 10 systems, 9 of which were named, and 2 of which were major hurricanes!

You make the call. Is this season boring? Not by a long shot.


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: imnotsignedinnow]
      #48396 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:49 PM

I don't think it has been boring at all. We had plenty of action in July, just kinda slowed down I think more than anticipated for August. I enjoy watching the storms as they come together but it doesn't bother me in the least to see them head out to sea

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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48397 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:51 PM

I agree Red and the season is just getting warmed up. I am sure we will see more action possibly even next week. Who knows the way things are going

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Floridacane
Weather Guru


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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48398 - Fri Aug 19 2005 11:56 PM

No way has it been boring. And yes, Mother Nature is in charge. I just want to know who upset her so much, j/k.
Any Met or anyone else could comment on this. Is there a more distinct spin back with XTD10 this evening, could it be rebuilding again?

Finally hit 100 posts and it only took 3 years. I guess I am more of a lurker than poster lol

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori

Edited by Floridacane (Fri Aug 19 2005 11:57 PM)


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pedro
Unregistered




Re: Undramatic Pause *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48399 - Sat Aug 20 2005 12:00 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: pedro]
      #48400 - Sat Aug 20 2005 12:05 AM

I gotta say, x-TD 10 gets my award for the most resiliant system. I guess you'd almost have to call it "spunky." I'm not met, and I'm too ignorant an amateur to be able to give much of an opinion on if it it is organizing, but I am quite capable of looking at IR (any imbecile can look at colors, I guess ). After what it looked like yesterday, I'm amazed it has ANY convection at all. I can't imagine this developing into much, but just it's persistance is incredible. Perhaps the scheduled recon flight tomorrow will be justified after all. I don't forsee a depression out of this, but if 15 hours from now it's maintained some of this convection, perhaps we'll have to reexamine the possibility of it eventually attaining minimal tropical storm strength. First though it better get an LLC, and I just don't see it now. Nice convection... but no circulation=no cyclone.

IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Edited by Big Red Machine (Sat Aug 20 2005 12:07 AM)


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 365
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48401 - Sat Aug 20 2005 12:52 AM

Although former TD10 (if you can even call it that anymore; what was the LLC apparently raced ahead and would be much farther west if it had survived) is certainly worth keeping an eye on, the convection tonight is not indicative of any organization. There's a trough there with a wave not too far to the SE, and we're near the convective diurnal maximum, so the colors showing up on IR are not unexpected.

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48402 - Sat Aug 20 2005 01:03 AM

well the srh floater 1 is behind "x-td10"....i think its actually near 21n. 71w... and in recent imagery, there appear's to be some storms flaring up close to the area i think is worth watching....north of Dom.Rep....

in other worlds....models are still throwing up the 1st cape verde storm and moving it west...2-3 days in Atl. will see.


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superfly
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48405 - Sat Aug 20 2005 04:23 AM

Quote:

Although former TD10 (if you can even call it that anymore; what was the LLC apparently raced ahead and would be much farther west if it had survived) is certainly worth keeping an eye on, the convection tonight is not indicative of any organization.




There's still some sort of broad circulation which has indeed raced ahead near 22N/71W.


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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: superfly]
      #48406 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:53 AM

VERY GOOD LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED AFRICA IN THE PAST 12
HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO LIKE THIS WAVE TO VARYING DEGREES.
THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE BEST WAVES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...AND BEARS
WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS BRING A TROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE TO THE VICINITY OF THE NE CARIB FOR NEXT SUN-MON WITH
ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED WAVE OR LOW FOLLOWING NOT FAR BEHIND. THIS
COMING WEEK MAY THEREFORE YIELD ANOTHER SPURT OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. LET`S ALL BE READY!

The above remarks from the discussion of the NWS San Juan.It looks like the quiet period is comming to an end very soon.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 323
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #48407 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:38 AM

I think your right Cy. Been kinda of peaceful in the tropics which is good for us coastal dwellers. End of this month and into September might just be a whole new ball of wax. The renovation on the Crowne Plaza where I`m the exec. chef that got destroyed by Jeanne last year is scheduled to be completed in two months. Believe me, I`ve waited over 10 months plus for this and the next two months is going to be interesting when it comes to hurricanes forming to east south east of us. The african wave train is about to leave the station it looks like.... I hope they spin the fish and stay away from the Space Coast..........Weatherchef...........

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #48409 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:28 AM

This wave coming off Africa looks to be building some rather impressive ordinary convection already, though there aren't signs of rotation yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

I checked the models. Most of them strengthen or maintain the wave across the Atlantic, but then the models aren't very good at predicting unformed cyclones.

I also checked the SAL - it seems quite weak right now out in the Atlantic, and quickly dispersing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

The biggest problem looks to be wind shear in the basin. It isn't super strong, but it is there:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html

This is one wave to watch in my mind.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 20 2005 09:32 AM)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48410 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:35 AM

What are all the factor that may cause it to move in the future if it devlops is more of a chance to be a fish spinner or a land falling storm. Also NHC said that there is low on it around 18n 16w i think that a little high but usally they drop a little cause the Itzc is located a litt more north over Africa then over the Alantic Ocean from my obsevations.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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H20 temp
Unregistered




Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: native]
      #48414 - Sat Aug 20 2005 11:25 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
THings I'm watching [Re: H20 temp]
      #48421 - Sat Aug 20 2005 01:47 PM

I'm watching: SE Yucatan and wave approaching along/near 83W; ex10 which I think has a legitimate shot to go; the old front off of the US East Coast (probably nothing tropical but there is a surface low due east of Maine, some turning due east of New Jersey, and some turning due east of North Carolina; and finally the wave off of Africa which looks like the best one all season. Things should be heating up shortly.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Do a visible, animated zoom along the front of the US East Coast to see that low east of ME and the turning E of NC and NJ.

Steve


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Steve]
      #48423 - Sat Aug 20 2005 02:13 PM

How long is it going to take navy to put a invest on the wave off of africa? What do they go by to declare an invest?

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 323
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
All a board [Re: Steve]
      #48424 - Sat Aug 20 2005 02:15 PM

Looks like the locomotive of the African wave train is leaving the station and heading to all points west. Whats going on in front of this baby ?. Are conditions ripe for development ?...Fill me in......Weatherchef..... web page

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Steve]
      #48425 - Sat Aug 20 2005 02:43 PM

Steve, I hate to say it but the only thing I see turning on that sat image is a land-locked low just north of Lake Superior. Even X-TD-10 isn't rotating right now, which is a change since yesterday when it was rotating, albiet very slowly.

However, I've been watching the African wave for a day now (since just before it left the coast). Conditions are ripe for it to grow, with only shear as an issue. Moist air is growing moister ahead of it. SAL is weakening. The models support development, which is rare - models rarely pick up on non-closed lows and develop them very well. SST's are quite warm, especially near the US coast where they are extremely warm! I don't see much that will impede development as long as it stays toward to the south of most of the shear.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48426 - Sat Aug 20 2005 02:59 PM

i am fairly confident in saying that the African wave, although strong enough to eliminate the dry air in the region, will NOT develop. If you look closely at the satellite image, the center is well north of the convection, and it is in an area of stable air over cooler waters

as for XTD10, i have pretty much given up on that


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Rabbit]
      #48428 - Sat Aug 20 2005 03:06 PM

I disagree, Rabbit. It won't develop immediately, but it is becoming better organized all the time with it's convection. It has strong model support, the driest air is leaving the region, and upper-level conditions are favorable for development. Water temperatures are above average and above the critical threshold for development. After some time to organize, I see no reason why this one shouldn't develop. Thankfully, that should mean that it'll ultimately be one for the fish, but it'll still be worth watching.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Clark]
      #48429 - Sat Aug 20 2005 03:23 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi

Actually, I see some hints of what is maybe some broad mid-level turning near the deeper convection.

I think that this wave will develop gradually, but not rapidly, over the next few days.


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H2O temp
Unregistered




Re: Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: H20 temp]
      #48431 - Sat Aug 20 2005 05:15 PM

So, why is post stating the water temp was 92 degrees last Wed at St. Pete Beach, sent to the graveyard? It was an amplification (in agreement with another poster about Gulf Water temps) of the other post I was responding too. Not offensive, not duplicative. Not rude.

Post a link for the info...can't ...it was a weather report on the local tv station.

Guys, I am a long time user of this site (as I am sure you can see)...maybe someone is getting a little too impressed with their moderator status?

FWIW...and will probably be censored too....

The post was probably graveyarded because of it's one-line nature without anything to back it up, but I'm not sure as I don't know who did it. If it was a media report, please state that. Water temperatures have been warm there -- The Weather Channel maps that they show here on TV show some reports of 95 degree waters -- but you have to remember that those are often right along the shore and are a reflection of the daily changes in the air temperature. At night, those same waters that are 92 during the day are generally going to be about 82. Water temperatures off-shore, where it matters for the storms, are just in the mid-upper 80s as the water is deeper and air temperatures over the open waters are cooler, among other factors. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Sat Aug 20 2005 06:39 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Steve]
      #48432 - Sat Aug 20 2005 05:59 PM

As best I can remeber, today is the first day that our old TD has been able to maintain thunderstorms all day long. Nothing at the surface, but the presentation seems a little better with time too. I wonder what tomorrow might bring, this system seems to always generate storms at night, so I would have to expect it will continue to maintain them until then. Maybe if it keeps it up through the day tomorrow...we may have something we'll need to watch. NHC is now stating the disturbance is under favorable conditions.
San Juan Longrange Loop: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml
Vis: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
SW: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: THings I'm watching [Re: dem05]
      #48435 - Sat Aug 20 2005 06:55 PM

If you want to talk about SSTs, take a look at the SSD (Satellite Services Division):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/PAC/20.jpg

As you can see we have very warm SSTs near Florida, though not into the lower-mid ninties. As Clark said, it's probably near-shore surface temps that warmed from daytime heating. Here in MD we're running 82-86F temps in the bay, and that is very high. Usually we sit in the upper 70's or perhaps very low 80's during the summer.

Bear in mind that hurricanes stir up subsurface water through wave action, and if the near-surface subsurface water temps aren't near surface temps the hurricane won't strengthen as much. Normal wave actions help equalize the temps between surface and near-surface. Coastlines don't have the depth to have much divergent temps, so the just ordinary wave action won't cause the surface temps to drop as much, so you'll get higher temps regularly near shorelines than in open water.

Just a couple conversions:
25C = 77F
30C = 86F
35C = 95F

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 20 2005 06:59 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: dem05]
      #48436 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:26 PM

Well, the feature has been able to maintain thunderstorms for some time now, just not in any organized fashion. It looks like, though, that ex-TD10 might have spun up a mid-level circulation, but the convection will have to maintain itself for some time yet to come before it becomes something really to watch again. Conditions are favorable for something to happen, so I guess my proclamation of it being dead might be premature...only by a little for now.

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Keith234
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48437 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:29 PM

talking about celcius if you want an easy way to remember is to memorize 5 numbers.
-10 C=14 C
0 C 32 F
10c 50 F
20c 68 f
30c 86 f
40c 104f

for all numbers in between there is a 2 degree F interval for 1 degree of C.

Hope that helps

interval is acutally 1.8F/1C. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 20 2005 07:56 PM)


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dem05
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Clark]
      #48438 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:39 PM

That's what I'm seeing/thinking too, Clark. Definately no surface signature there at this time. As of now, and as this system moves further from Puerto Rico...I hope people remeber curvature of the earth and any circulation that may develop in the radar representation would not necissarily be indicative of anything on the surface. I will be curious to see if the system can continue or improve its satellite signature over the next 24-36 hours. If it doesn't, it's once again taken one step forward and two steps back.

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dem05
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Keith234]
      #48439 - Sat Aug 20 2005 07:48 PM

This is the most accurate conversion from celsius to fareinheit:
(degrees C X 1.8) + 32 = degrees F
Example:
(100 degrees C X 1.8) = 32 + 212 Degrees F (Boiling Point of water)

Conversely...Fareinheit to celsius is:
(degrees F - 32) / 1.8 = Degrees C
(212 degrees F - 32) / 1.8 = (180 degrees F)/ 1.8 = 100 degrees C (boiling point of water)

Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 20 2005 07:55 PM)


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Ron Basso
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Clark]
      #48440 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:09 PM

Quote:

Well, the feature has been able to maintain thunderstorms for some time now, just not in any organized fashion. It looks like, though, that ex-TD10 might have spun up a mid-level circulation, but the convection will have to maintain itself for some time yet to come before it becomes something really to watch again. Conditions are favorable for something to happen, so I guess my proclamation of it being dead might be premature...only by a little for now.




I did notice a large anticyclone has built over the top of the cloud mass. Numerical models are still not bullish on development. Looks like a good rain maker next week for the peninsula with the wave bumping into the trough coming down from the north. From earlier post, the water temp 100 nm west of Bayport is 89 deg. It's 87 deg at the bouy in the SE gulf at 26N-86W.

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Old Sailor
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48441 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:25 PM

Don't think it's XTD 10 any more but wave behind it,,,, Read 8:05 PM Discussion

THE REMNANTS OF TD 10 ARE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR TURKS/CAICOS ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT ARE
WEAKENING WITH TIME. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER IT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW OF THE COMPUTER MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOPMENT THIS AREA.. BRINGING IT TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH. FARTHER N.. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 30N56W
TO 24N68W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BENEATH THE TROUGH AXIS THOUGH
THEY ARE QUITE ISOLATED. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.. A MID/UPPER LOW
IS NEAR 28N45W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NNW WITH TROUGH AXIS SSW TO
20N51W. THE GFS SUGGEST THE FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE TROUGH RETREATING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES S OF THE LOW N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W AND E OF
THE LOW N OF 15N W OF 30W.

Seems this is not XTD10
Dave


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Frank P
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48442 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:29 PM

actually Dave I think this has developed in front of the tropical depression formally known as TD 10, IMO

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Old Sailor
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Frank P]
      #48443 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:34 PM

Frank:
Hard to say where it developed but is not what was TD10, if this MLC/LLC develops would be called TD 11.

Dave


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HanKFranK
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: Frank P]
      #48444 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:38 PM

xtd 10... yeah, by continuity that would be the weak trough over the bahamas. the mid-level low/convective complex north of puerto rico isn't really in sync with it.. though its origins are quite likely the mlc that sheared off TD 10 as it was approaching the islands and opening up.
twd is mindful of the mid-level low/surface trough associated with the feature near the yucatan. that'll be moving into the BOC tomorrow.. general motion towards the mouth of the rio grande should continue, getting it there around tuesday. it's a watcher at least.
by far the most impressive system in the basin is the 20w wave/low. large waves like that in late august tend to develop. no invest yet but that should be forthcoming. among the three features out there today... two have only modest chances of development.. the east atlantic wave has a much greater chance, but in the long range models unanimously recurve it (climo supports this, but there is a recurvature bias with the globals in these cases). the north atlantic is atypically threat free for august 20th.
HF 0038z21august


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Old Sailor
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That Wave [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48445 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:46 PM

Hank:

Agree with you on that wave system in the basin at 20w as you said a lot of things can happen on it's way across the pond. Lets hope this one goes with the Fishes, Does have a mean look to it..

Dave


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Keith234
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Re: THings I'm watching [Re: dem05]
      #48446 - Sat Aug 20 2005 08:55 PM

Well it is the easiest to remember for offhand calculations. I never knew it was 1.8 F/1C, thxs.

--------------------
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h2ocean
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New Invest 97L [Re: Keith234]
      #48447 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:09 PM

The wave off of Africa is now officially Invest 97L.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: New Invest 97L [Re: h2ocean]
      #48448 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:31 PM

I've been away for the last 2 days. Looks like you all are keeping an EYE on the newest wave.
I went back and looked at my 850mb charts from the morning of the 18th. The wave was clearly defined at that time over West Central Africa.
The streamlines at 12Z on the 18th covered nearly 20 degrees of latitude. Nearly 1200 miles. If the wave is half of that amplitude, it should still be near 600 miles from N to S.
Weather Channel paying close attention to it, and I see from your posts that NRL is also.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: New Invest 97L [Re: danielw]
      #48450 - Sat Aug 20 2005 10:28 PM Attachment (290 downloads)

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005 (edited~danielw)

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC WAVE ALONG 19W/20W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17.5N AND A 1009 MB LOW IS ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THE NORTHERN LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRY AIR N OF 17N E OF 28W SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE.
THIS IS NOT THE CASE FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH IS FORMING SOME CURVED BANDS IN THE ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET. COMPUTER MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-29W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN DAKAR AND 21W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO THE CENTER.
THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/202348.shtml?

**note-I'm not great at reading the upper air balloon reports. Looking at Dakar, Senegal's latest report,21/00Z. This wave had a signature up to near 700mb. Quite Impressive on the Skew-Ts. This coupled with 23kt winds as low as 1800 feet.
Peak winds on this sounding were 36kts at 700mb, or near 10000 ft.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 20 2005 10:41 PM)


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Jekyhe904
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Re: New Invest 97L [Re: danielw]
      #48451 - Sat Aug 20 2005 11:14 PM

I agree, it should form but wait till maybe 50 W so it may be more productive in yardage and maybe scoring a touchdown I mean landfall. As mentioned above, history is strongly against any named storm brewing deep into cape verde territory making it into US territory as the models are agreeing (except the EURO http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5082012!!!step/ )... Im tired of this promising 2005 atlantic hurricane team all wanting to go fishing with the exception of the key gulf players. Maybe they should take some tips from the GOM members who seem much more valuable players. My advice to 97L is play smart or you're going to get benched and sent fishing.

From local news channel...

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/weather/5dayforecast.aspx

Quote:

JACKSONVILLE, FL -- How neat is this? Here we are in the middle of peek hurricane season, when we see one storm after the other forming, and yet there's nothing out there? Maybe all the energy got used up in the first half that there's hardly any left to use.






Hmmm.... is this a cancellation of hurricane season altogether?!!
i think you know better. the warmer than average SSTs are there, it's just a matter of the pattern reverting to what we had in july. the idea that gulf storms are 'valuable' is a little cracked, though. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 12:34 AM)


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HanKFranK
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last call [Re: Jekyhe904]
      #48456 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:59 AM

a'ite, a few thoughts:
xtd 10 is a convective complex curved next to a weak mid-level vortex. A for persistence, D for form. it's only trudging west, either waiting to develop or do nothing. something i do expect to hear from JB on monday is how with the strong typhoon threatening japan, the teleconnection will be for this sucker to spin up and threaten the SE. it has to do more than sputter for that to happen, but those ensembles he was showing last week weren't kidding around... the pattern does support something being there.
the yucatan area feature is crossing, and will be into the BOC tomorrow. should continue to track wnw, probably a NE mexico thing. it has a day or two to spin up... enough models are suggesting it tries that to merit attention. it'll have a building ridge to the north, so it coming up to texas is on the unlikely side.
97L.. one of those massive late aug/early sept type waves... has all kinds of model support. i expect this thing will start developing in the next day or two, and probably start into one of those w/wnw tracks for a few days. if it develops east of 40w it'll likely be slated for recurvature. on the other hand, if it stays weak for a few days it'll have a different set of circumstances late next week as it nears a projected weakness in the central atlantic.
should see jose named this week. maybe more if the basin responds to eastpac activity (but with the typhoons going active in the westpac, it shouldn't favor a large burst of activity).
time to snooze. happy b-day to coop, by the way.
HF 0459z21august

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 01:11 AM)


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Clark
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Re: last call [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48457 - Sun Aug 21 2005 01:13 AM

Interesting to note that it may not be the marker of another quiet period in this basin with regards to WPac activity. There are two storms out there, but both of them have subtropical (at least not purely tropical) origins, both small features forming along 20N. While there are indications of another active MJO phase setting up in the Indian Ocean and extreme WPac, I'm not sure these two can be tied to the tropical modes of development/climatological predictors. After 97L, things should be relatively quiet in terms of easterly waves, though there are two over the continent now that will bear watching.

Will be interesting to see what pans out...unless all three features on the board now develop, which the odds are really against that, I don't think we'll break 12 for the month unless there's a flurry on the last day or two of the month. There's just not enough out there worth watching.

Some of the models are trying to spin-up something in the Gulf Stream later this week in conjunction with a strong frontal boundary passing through the SE. It bears watching -- might even capture some of ex-TD 10's pieces -- to see if this trend continues. Waters are certainly warm enough and it wouldn't be the first time we see tropical development off of the end of a frontal boundary. Got a hunch with the way they've been coming into the SE this year, plus the warm waters, that we might be setting up for an active Gulf season into September and October. I fear for anything that hits the Loop Current...it's been strong all year long, with all of the N. Gulf storms missing it so far. Alas, only time will tell.

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Random Chaos
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Re: last call [Re: Clark]
      #48459 - Sun Aug 21 2005 02:47 AM

To me it looks like we are already seeing rotation off the new African wave:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

NHC TWD (2am):
FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1011
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE LOW HAS CURVED BANDS ON
THE ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION.
THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
19W-22W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

-----------

The system near the gulf doesn't look so great right now, but the 2am TWD still says they expect it to develop.


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NONAME
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48460 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:12 AM Attachment (327 downloads)

Wind scat shows some type of circulation in 97invest near 13 north right off africa. Look at my attachment.

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Frank P
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: NONAME]
      #48461 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:23 AM

here's the latest IR loop I could find on it... this thing is very large and could be the real deal...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html


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NONAME
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Frank P]
      #48462 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:35 AM

That Hilary in the eastern pacific has really strong convection just take a look for your self.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.

Edited by NONAME (Sun Aug 21 2005 07:36 AM)


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John03
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: NONAME]
      #48463 - Sun Aug 21 2005 09:40 AM

nice flare up of storm over the yucatan of mexico....over land now, but looks like there could be something there

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Random Chaos
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: John03]
      #48464 - Sun Aug 21 2005 10:34 AM

I'm waiting for the 11am update of the TWO, but until then, there is the TWD from a couple hours ago. It looks like conditions are good for both the soon-to-enter-the-GOM and the east Atlantic waves to form Tropical Cyclones. It looks like it is the start of the first of the busy weeks. Been an unusually quiet August...looks like that is about to change.

Also, we can't forget about the Bay of Campeche wave. That is taking a track very similar to what Gert took. While NHC isn't talking about development of it yet, it still has a ways to go before it finishes crossing the Yucatan,

--RC

--------------

From the 805 AM TWD:

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING IS
NOTED WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION.
THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

---------------

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
WIND SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THIS
AREA..


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HanKFranK
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48466 - Sun Aug 21 2005 11:28 AM

'quiet' augusts of late:
1996: first august storm 'dolly' on august 19. three more by month's end.
1997: really quiet. nada.
1998: first august storm 'bonnie' on august 19. three more by month's end.
1999: first august storm 'bret' on august 18. again, three more by month's end.
2000: last august storm 'debby' on august 19. three before that.
2001: spread of three storms, all tropical storms. barry on august 2nd, chantal on august 14th, dean on august 22nd. very active september and october.
2002: two tropical storms early, one more late. very active september.
2003: erika on august 14th. fabian and grace at month's end. nine more named storms after august.
2004: insane august. not quiet at all; seven systems developed during the month.
2005: as of august 21st.. two named storms.
eight of these seasons had three named storms. one had none, one had seven. it isn't infeasible that this year will produce a couple more august storms.
HF 1528z21august


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Random Chaos
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48467 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:07 PM

It seems to me that NHC's TAFB people and those at the TWO desk aren't talking too well today

Wave near Puerto Rico:
TAFB TWD 8am: THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
TWO 11am: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

Yucatan wave:
TAFB TWD 8am: WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE no mention of development
TWO 11am: SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO

So which is it? I realize TWO is 3 hours more recent, but generally there aren't major changes between the two sources. Each one talks about the same waves doing nearly the same things usually. This time it seems very divergent in their forcasts!


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Clark
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48469 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:22 PM

TAFB and the NHC are in the same building, but the forecasters at each can occasionally disagree on various aspects of development for any disturbance -- just like you see some here disagree from time to time.

As for the first disturbance, the NHC TWO primarily focuses on one to two days out, whereas the TWD -- if it ever mentions development -- will usually only mention the conditions that could lead to development. The TWD is generally just a discussion of what is occurring and what the overall features might do, not so much a discussion of whether a tropical cyclone will develop. That's where the TWO comes in. It's got favorable upper-level conditions and warm waters ahead of it, as noted, but it's also the time of year that anything that moves into such a region needs to be watched. The NHC just doesn't think it'll happen within 2 days.

With the second disturbance, you see more of what the TWD is about and how it should complement the TWO. With most features overland with that disturbance and less organization than seen with Bret or Gert at this point, they aren't going to hammer home about it's chances in the TWD. Given those two prior storms, however, and the forcing provided by the tropical wave, the NHC has to watch it closely. Based off of persistence and climatology, they suggest something could get going once it mvoes out over water. It's purposefully vauge, though.

BTW, while we're talking about products here, just a friendly reminder to everyone on the board that if you are going to copy/paste NHC products into a post on the board, just do the parts that you need to accentuate your discussion, as RC did in the post I'm replying to. Please do not copy/paste the entire product; instead, use a link. Thanks!

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ftlaudbob
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48470 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:27 PM

Looks like the news of the day is the wave that just came off Africa.Really does look good.It will be interesting to see what happens with this one next week.On a different note,We may have a record month in Oct.,given the very warm waters.

--------------------

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Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Keith234
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48472 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:38 PM

Well it's an odd pattern where development is inevitable, and competition believe it or not could become a limiting factor. Africa becomes moist, SAL is not a problem, no significant TUTT's, SST's warm, the whole nine yards. The wave coming off Africa is just too south to recurve, I think that the further west it goes the better chance for development. We also have that feature north of Hispanola, which is also a prime candidate for development, and that area of presistent diffluence off the SC is getting fishy given the pattern.

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Big Red Machine
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Keith234]
      #48473 - Sun Aug 21 2005 02:28 PM

For interests in FL and the Gulf perhaps a few disconcerting model runs.

12z Euro: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082112!!/

00z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation (Edit: Just saw the 12Z run and it looks more realistic http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...hour=Animation)

06 GFS also thought provoking (though the 12Z run has moved away from that idea)

There is still some thunderstorm activity there, as shown by the bit of a flareup last few frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

For now I'll file that under, "things that make me go hmmm." Pending future runs, perhaps the end of this week/this time next week we will see some interesting developments. As has been noted approximately 800,000 times, the water temps are hot , so it is possible. The explosion in the CMC seems a bit too bullish, but we'll see.



Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Aug 21 2005 02:46 PM)


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NONAME
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48474 - Sun Aug 21 2005 03:34 PM

When are they going to start getting Dvorak t-numbers for 97L it is an invest so they should have started right.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Convergence
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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48475 - Sun Aug 21 2005 03:55 PM

What the heck is that feature off of the SC coast? It just looks like a blob of convection that has undergone almost no change over the past 6 hours or so.

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Ron Basso
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48476 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:01 PM

Quote:

For interests in FL and the Gulf perhaps a few disconcerting model runs.

12z Euro: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082112!!/


00z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation (Edit: Just saw the 12Z run and it looks more realistic http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...hour=Animation)

06 GFS also thought provoking (though the 12Z run has moved away from that idea)

There is still some thunderstorm activity there, as shown by the bit of a flareup last few frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

For now I'll file that under, "things that make me go hmmm." Pending future runs, perhaps the end of this week/this time next week we will see some interesting developments. As has been noted approximately 800,000 times, the water temps are hot , so it is possible. The explosion in the CMC seems a bit too bullish, but we'll see.





Interesting Big Red. All the globals are at least developing weak low pressure around S FL by friday with some offering development in the eastern GOM. Convection today has again flared up with the wave. The CMC was ominous but this explaination from HPC this pm:

DAY 3 WAVE OVER SRN FL/WRN CUBA REFLECTS YDAYS COORDINATION WITH
TPC REGARDING WHAT REMAINS OF FORMER T.D. 10. WHETHER FROM THIS
FEATURE AND/OR ANOTHER UPSTREAM... OP/ENS GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF SRN FL BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CANADIAN IS THE EXCEPTION WITH A MUCH
STRONGER LOW....BUT CANADIAN HAS IN THE PAST HAD AN AFFINITY FOR
OVER AMPLIFICATION OF GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEMS. FOR NOW
WILL NOT DEPICT A WELL DEFINED FEATURE...BUT WILL KEEP A SPOT LOW
OVER SRN FLORIDA SINCE ALL MODELS CONCUR THIS MORNING

--------------------
RJB


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NONAME
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48477 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:44 PM

Where is the low level center or the low preasure center to 97L does it have any curculation yet and what is the chance it could fallow a track. Like Ivan and When are they going to start getting Dvorak estimates on it?

how are you going to be a meteorologist when you can't spell pressure and circulation. follow? dude, i know you can do better. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 08:11 PM)


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Clark
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: NONAME]
      #48478 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:49 PM

The strongest banding is near 13N/24W, though convection is sparse in that area. It's best shot is if the low tries to reform near 12N/25-26W, nearer the deep convection. It's a large system, so it will take some time to get going...think of how long it took Hilary to get going (about 3 days before it developed) and that sounds about right. The 12Z TAFB surface analysis analyzed a 1012mb low there; it's been oscillating between 1009-1012mb the past day or so. They'll start Dvorak estimates on it once they feel they are needed. Chances are that it will be one for the fish, but it's just too early to tell.

--------------------
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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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NONAME
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Clark]
      #48479 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:53 PM

Clark/and or/ any mod/met "What are the Factor that would cause 97 to go out to sea or go west and if it did become a storm what are the chance it would be larger than the eastern pacifics hilary because she is about the size of the gulf of mexico so if this thing get going it would be a huge system I think."

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.

Edited by NONAME (Sun Aug 21 2005 04:55 PM)


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Keith234
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Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Convergence]
      #48480 - Sun Aug 21 2005 04:56 PM

As I noted, it seems to be some form of dirunal convection diffluence thing. Much like a mosoonal wind. I'm not sure if anything will come from it, but in such a undramatic pause there is drama in tthe following scene.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: last call [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48481 - Sun Aug 21 2005 05:00 PM

Good to hear if the Yucatan Pen. thing gets into the Gulf it would head toward NE Mexico. A ridge will keep it away from Texas is your way of thinking?

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Big Red Machine
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48482 - Sun Aug 21 2005 05:29 PM

Yup Ron, the trends definitely seem to be pointing to a closed low, of some intensity around S. FL this weekend, likely pushing SW across the state and into the Gulf. We can add the 12Z UK to that line of thinking http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Pretty big explosion of storms on IR with the area in question. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Aug 21 2005 05:33 PM)


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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48483 - Sun Aug 21 2005 05:53 PM

Ya but that has nothing to do with 97L. That model as most takes 97L out to sea. I think the models are developing a low from an old trof/wave. As for 97L who knows where that will go.Till it develops.

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Rich B
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Possible BOC system [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #48485 - Sun Aug 21 2005 05:59 PM

Hey guys,
as the TWO from NHC indicates, the system over the SW Yucatan is getting better organised. Visible imagery shows a well organised circulation with clear banding features. The actual 'centre' is currentlyinland but should move offshore tonight. It certainly looks as if this will develop once the system is actually over the BOC. However, i dont expect rapid development / intensification due to its proximity to land. However, i do beleive we will see TD11 / TS Jose by Monday with this system.

The disturbed weather north of PR has been around for days now, and at least it has persistence going for it. I dont see much significant development for a day or two, but it might need to be watched if it makes it to the GOM.

The strong wave and low pressure area south of the CV Islands remains a prominent feature, but looks like it is gonna need at least a day or two to actually get organised. Certainly has potential though.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Possible BOC system [Re: Rich B]
      #48486 - Sun Aug 21 2005 06:15 PM

NHC has tasked an INVEST Flight for 18Z tomorrow.
The Bay Of Campeche is the target area.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 22/1800Z
D. 20.0N 93.0W
E. 22/2000Z TO 22/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 23/0230Z
D. 20.0N 94.5W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HOURLY FIXES IF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.


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Big Red Machine
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #48488 - Sun Aug 21 2005 06:53 PM

Lonny, I was not referring to 97L, I was referring to a system north of Hispaniola. Perhaps I should have made this clearer in my posts. With several areas out there it can get a tad confusing.

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Jekyhe904
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48489 - Sun Aug 21 2005 06:55 PM

Yeah, lots of models hinting at development somewhere around florida and Accuweather is hanging onto the idea of something happening off the SE coast ... though they still refer to it as TD10 but I think we may see it become 98L instead then TD11.

Now if the system forms off the southeast coast/gulf, and the system forms in the Yucatan, wouldnt these further erode the atlantic high when they decided to lift north later and provide 97L with a fishing trip??

One other question----Anyone seen tropical model run information on 97L?? I find it hard to believe there have been no runs in now 24 hrs but I cant find anything on it.


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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: 97 Invest *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48490 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:09 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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John03
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #48491 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:40 PM

taking a look at this computer runs on wave. I notice now near the end of runs there is a turn back to right or north, late in the period instead of straight across the GOM to the west. Could this be a sign that the high may break down over the se late in the forecast? But note something has to develope before anything happens and with the wave north of the islands.... things could setup for a interesting week next week!

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MikeG
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Re: 97 Invest [Re: John03]
      #48494 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:53 PM

check the time of those runs. i think they were yesterday!

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Clark
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Re: Possible BOC system [Re: Rich B]
      #48495 - Sun Aug 21 2005 07:57 PM

Rich, I'm not sure if this low is even going to make it off of land. It's over the long, narrow west-east part of southern Mexico and heading west right now. Steering flow is out of the east with very little to no component that would send it a bit towards the north as the upper-level high pressure area has shifted towards the west over the past couple of days. It's broad and could always reform over water, but given what is there now, I'm not convinced it'll make it up into our basin. If it does get over water, all bets are probably off, though I think any significant development is going to be limited by proximity to land and a short time period that it'll remain over water before going back inland.

There is some model support for it moving west and ultimately west-southwest into the Eastern Pacific basin and spinning up there just off of the Mexican coast, however. I'm not sure I'd put much stock in the models for something like this anyway, given the proximity to land and the reorganization cycles these things can go through, but it's a trend that bears watching. The NOGAPS had been the one calling for this to maybe do something in the S. Bay of Campeche, but now has largely backed off of that idea.

As for the rest of the tropics....the 8:05p TWD upgraded the E. Atlantic feature to a special feature, suggesting possible development within 36hr. It needs that time to consolidate, but should do so through time. Slow development is possible from there, with the most likely end-game scenario taking it northward about 60W. We'll know more in a few days, though, once and if it develops. Elsewhere, there's not much to follow...still some model interest in the remnants of TD 10 (whichever piece of it they may be), whether in the Gulf Stream off of SC like Alex last year or in the Gulf. Depends on how strong the coming frontal boundary & trough is as to what the more likely scenario is...stronger boundary means the remnants are more likely to be pulled north. In any case, I don't expect (re)development out of this one until the middle of next week at the earliest...just doesn't have the longevity or the organization.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
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transition time? [Re: Clark]
      #48496 - Sun Aug 21 2005 08:25 PM

models are really perking up and showing some activity on the way now... 16 day GFS reads like a smorgasboard of tropical systems... so we're probably going to see the real thing again this coming week. here's the rundown (somewhat a rehash of concepts already tossed out).
BoC system: there is a solid mid level turning inland near the SE rim of the bay. convection is flaring all around and near shore... if it doesn't continue due west and keep scraping along the coastline it should have a solid chance at developing. i don't think this system will get distant enough from the shore or stay over water long enough for significant development.. but it isn't moving very quickly and the center could jump offshore. this system has the highest chance of classification the soonest. it may just be a depression based on proximity to the coast.. or more like bret and gert earlier this year. expect an invest at any time.
97L: globals pretty unanimous about developing this feature. it's not organizing quickly which is slantng the odds against early recurvature.. but they're still highly in favor of it turning up near 55-60w later next week.
xtd 10: i won't stop mentioning it until it goes away, and it hasn't. i doubt it'll ever be rechristened 10 due to the time that has passed and the changes it's undergone, but it is some vestige of this persistent system. the globals are showing fairly dramatic, pattern-forced pressure falls near the southeast u.s. coast.. and are developing low pressure near/east of florida btw tue-wed. the advancing trough is shown by some to yank it up along/just off the coast.. on others it is bypassed and drifts over florida during the weekend.. presumably into the gulf after that time. i'll briefly discuss the synoptic conditions around this later...
behind 97L: you guessed it.. a sort of wave train is showing up in the wake of 97L. GFS has the follow on staying low and approaching the s.e. us coast around labor day weekend... when the GFS starts showing stuff like that i like to stock up on caffeinated beverages for the long nights ahead.
pattern in general: had a blazing hot august day here, but a trough is about to settle into the east.. and lift out next week. the basin in general on wv doesn't look like the andy warhol psychedelic upper low trip anymore. late next week heights are shown to be building significantly in eastern canada.. the notorious newfoundland wheel is in place around the first few days of september. that kind of pattern in the heart of the hurricane season is very bad juju, as if you have a storm in place to take advantage of it... somebody gets burned.
expect the next couple of weeks to be less of the irene/td 10 type headscratching over weak systems.. and more of the traditional cv season action.
HF 0025z22august

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 08:28 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
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Home brew???? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48497 - Sun Aug 21 2005 08:55 PM

Here is the local take from a West Palm Beach meteorologist, what do you guys think?

A flood potential situation could develop by mid week as GFS consistently has shown a tropical wave stalling and becoming a weak tropical type low to stall right near our area. This feature looks to hang around for awhile right into the weekend. This situation given the very warm waters off our coast would help to enhance convective heavy to strong storms with the potential near the coast as well as inland that may break the consistent high heat and moisture dynamics that has plagued our area especialy this month so far. So, we have plenty of time to prepare for this significant rain event. This is based on my experience what I looked at as a very good relief but maybe getting more rain then what we can handle given with this potential tropical low to develop and stall. A strong high pressure to the north will block it from going north and will being captured with mid upper trough aloft. This situation bears close watch for flood potential problems. This system looks to be locked into place for awhile from Wednesday right into the weekend as it looks now maybe even longer.
I Will keep watching this situation. Skywarn members may need to keep a very close eye on this significant maybe serious flooding situation that could hit our area. As I said again 9-10 inches is what I am calling for during August at least and the official NOAA outlook calls for above normal rainfall.

We could easily go over that rainfall like in June. This last week of August looks to be a real active rainy week. So with all that to make up this could be the one to make up for since we only have several inches at the airport this month so far! Hopefully it wont be that bad but better prepare than be sorry later.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Old Sailor
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First Model Runs NHC on 97L [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #48498 - Sun Aug 21 2005 09:18 PM

Here are the first model runs on 97L, May not be a fish spinner..

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 0000 050822 1200 050823 0000 050823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 26.7W 13.2N 28.7W 13.9N 30.7W 14.8N 33.0W
BAMM 12.5N 26.7W 13.4N 28.8W 14.3N 31.0W 15.3N 33.6W
A98E 12.5N 26.7W 12.8N 29.4W 13.4N 32.1W 14.3N 34.7W
LBAR 12.5N 26.7W 13.3N 29.4W 14.5N 32.4W 15.8N 35.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 0000 050825 0000 050826 0000 050827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 35.3W 17.5N 39.5W 18.9N 42.8W 20.5N 46.5W
BAMM 16.3N 36.2W 18.1N 40.8W 19.6N 44.4W 21.1N 48.3W
A98E 15.3N 37.2W 16.9N 42.1W 18.4N 46.5W 20.8N 49.8W
LBAR 17.2N 38.9W 19.6N 43.8W 20.3N 47.1W 17.2N 51.5W
SHIP 56KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS
DSHP 56KTS 68KTS 76KTS 81KTS

Dave

Sorry left out Graph here it is.... 97L plot NHC

Edited by Old Sailor (Sun Aug 21 2005 09:24 PM)


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Lou
Unregistered




what's this [Re: Jekyhe904]
      #48499 - Sun Aug 21 2005 09:37 PM

There are 3 systems this Sunday afternoon capable of development
within the next 5 days. The first is coming into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico from off the Yucatan and has potential to quickly spin up like Gert and Bret did earlier this season, but just as they did, this would stay south in its final move to the coast, reaching though coast near Tuxpan Tuesday.

The second is a bigger problem. TD10 is gone, perhaps the reason was the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the mid level spin is near 20.5 north and 70.0 west this afternoon. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the northeast and the atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern.

The 3rd is a major wave that is near the Cape Verdes. This may the first of several that can develop and try to come across. It will be moving west the next few days.

For now though, the one that can cause forecasters the greatest wailing and gnashing of teeth is the second one. accuweather [list] [list]


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danielwAdministrator
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Turks and Caicos [Re: Lou]
      #48502 - Sun Aug 21 2005 10:20 PM

Preliminary observation only.
I'm noticing continous convection, just North of Haiti. Centered near the 70.0 W longitude line. Also noted is what appears to be the beginnings of an outflow pattern in the NE thru S, semicircle of the area.
I would estimate the center of rotation near 21.0 N/ 70.0 W


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Turks and Caicos [Re: danielw]
      #48503 - Sun Aug 21 2005 10:30 PM

what's going on labor day in the state of florida thats big!

Yep the "Hurricanes are in Tally"!!! Sounds like last year and except in miami!
take a look at GFS long range
just food for thought ***interesting the model getting the active!!!! First weekend in Sept. may repeat like last year.....


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Old Sailor
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Re: Turks and Caicos [Re: MikeG]
      #48504 - Sun Aug 21 2005 10:39 PM

And this morning GFS had it going to NC, To far out to know where it will go 14 to 15 days. out.

Dave


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danielwAdministrator
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Tropical Observations [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48505 - Sun Aug 21 2005 11:44 PM

I've just checked the most current observations in Mexico and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Mexico-I'm seeing earlier reports of heavy rain and winds as high as 17 kts.
I noticed the Mid-Gulf buoy has had a wind shift. With wind gusts to 19kts.
Not necessarily conclusive at this time.
Belize-Report on http://www.stormcarib.com/ of torrential rains there in the last 24 hours. Diane Campbell reporting 6 inches in the cistern, and an estimate of 10 inches!!!
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/belize.shtml
The Turks and Caicos Islands are on the western side of the disturbed weather near 21 N/ 70 W. Nothing unusual noted there.
Dominican Republic had several stations reporting rain and thunderstorms earlier. Most of those stations have ceased operations for the night.
San Juan radar continues to 'paint' tropical showers and a few thunderstorms to the north of the island.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2005 11:51 PM)


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LI Phil
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buckle up [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48506 - Sun Aug 21 2005 11:47 PM

hey all...been away too much, but the mid august lull has been most welcome...irene gave us a bit of a scare, but like a good little girl she did spin the fishes...

i'm certainly no met, but i do know climatology, and it sure looks like the basin is back from vacation now...as so many have pointed out...nothing is imminent, but i'd bet by the end of this week, we'll have plenty on the platter...

lets hope they all spin the fishes, but CV season is now open for business and the long trackers are lined up both off the coast (of africa) and still over land...

here comes cane season 2005...part deux

buckle up

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Old Sailor
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Re: Tropical Observations [Re: danielw]
      #48514 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:06 AM

Daniel:

This site may help you in Carib if you don't have it all ready.
Dave.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

Got it bookmarked Dave, Thanks. I wish the map was smaller. Need a widescreen TV to view it!~danielw

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2005 12:14 AM)


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Jekyhe904
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97L Reorganizing, headed more north [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48515 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:15 AM

Still a very large tropical wave, 97L appears to have lost much of its deep convection today though it appears to be regaining a little at this hour. I have also noticed that it appears to be on a heading more northward --say wnw-nw...being it is not a closed, classified system, I am looking at the system as a whole instead of just the low moving just n of wnw and that is what i see. Models agree on a wnw-nw movement through the period so this makes sense. However, this is just the openner to what promises to be a very active Cape Verde season so watch it and be prepared US coast as its becoming crunch time!
Wave loop.........
Colorized wave sat loop

Edited by Jekyhe904 (Mon Aug 22 2005 12:17 AM)


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dem05
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Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions [Re: Clark]
      #48517 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:27 AM

Clark, looking at the obs, the old TD 10 wave is oriented sw to ne. the one wave behind it (around 62.5 w) is oriented se to nw. Here's the question/ request for clarification. From what I understand, a wave oriented from sw to ne does not typically have the orientation to spin up into a surface low, however a wave oriented se to nw has a better chance of "rolling on itself and closing off a low. Is this correct? Part two, what happens when wave oriented like this collide, do they have a better chance to spin up, considering the conflicting orientations? I know this is a matter of physics, so I thought I'd ask you. It does look like that wave behind the old TD 10 wave is catching up. I was wondering if the conflict in orientation and wind dynamics would increase chances of development if they collide with each other.
Thanks for your answer!


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions [Re: dem05]
      #48518 - Mon Aug 22 2005 12:49 AM

Well, I'm not certain on wave orientations towards development -- I'm not familiar with any research into it, if there has been any -- but I would think that the wave tilt has little to do with the potential for organization. Both waves are going to have similar wind fields, just with different orientations. Given that the prevailing winds are out of the east in the tropics and that the last part of a center to usually close off is the south side, I would think that the orientation of a wave isn't going to affect that much. However, if I had to make a call, I would think that the NW winds coming around the west side of a NW-SE oriented wave would probably lead to that orientation being slightly more favorable for quicker development. But, that's also an orientation you don't see that often, so how much credence you can put into that may be up for debate. Nevertheless, I believe there are more important factors, such as convective organization, mid-level banding & circulation features (thought to be important to the genesis process), and the amplitude of the wave, towards the genesis question.

As for the second part of the question, when two tropical waves collide going the same direction, it starts out as a constructive interference process on the west side of the easternmost wave and east side of the westernmost wave (in the N. Hemisphere) due to the counteracting wind fields. The waves could then merge and perhaps amplify at that point if enhanced convergence in the wind field is realized in the low-levels, but I don't think that the orientation of the wave plays a large role in this. Two waves of opposing tilts at the surface, NE-SW and NW-SE, are just going to have this same effect shifted in position or orientation; for between two troughs, as tropical waves are, you must have a corresponding ridge. Merger is possible, which can lead to enhanced potential for development, but there is a period of interaction first and I'm not sure that the orientation of a wave (or two waves) affects that to any large degree.

I will reiterate the caveat at the start of the post, though, and invite any of the other mets (calling HF, calling HF) to add their insight.
dude, i'm not a met. will be a climatologist at best... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 22 2005 10:02 AM)


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