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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
Xtd#10 [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #48634 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:41 PM

Sounds like even the NHC is unsure whether the disturbance is Xtd10 or not. U remember something similar happenning last year with Ivan when it reformed as to whether it was really Ivan or not.

So I'm guessing since the models and Navy are still calling this TD10, that is what the NHC will go with?

Here is the excerpt...

Quote:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.




Edited by Jekyhe904 (Mon Aug 22 2005 10:43 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Models [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #48635 - Mon Aug 22 2005 10:46 PM

Here's an interesting take on Models-Tropical Computer Models, that is.
The models are indicating Jose' to be near 23-24N/ 111-115W in 96 hours. No problem there.
Intensity models are in strong disagreement.
SHIP model is forecasting 102kts- over land and mountains!
DSHP model is showing 27 kts-most likely!

NHC has tasked an INVEST flight into the Bahamas for 18Z on Tuesday. With Wednesday's Flight tasking into a 'Cyclone'...indicating a Tropical Depression at a minimum.

SHIPS Intensity Forecast for the system formerly known as TD 10.
8/28/05 00Z-or Saturday Evening
78kts...SST near 30C...located near 23.8N/ 87.6W.
**this is an intensity forecast. Please refer to Official NHC forecasts for Tropical System Statements, Watches and Warnings


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #48636 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:02 PM

If I remember correctly my readings on the models at NHC, none of the intensity models have been designed to take land into account. I'd guess that's the problem with Jose and the mountains.

P.S. - would a moderator mind changing BigRedMachine's super-long link into a [ URL ] tag with a short name? It makes everyone's posts scroll funny
I shortened the link and Big Red fixed what I had done!..it's fixed.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2005 11:54 PM)


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #48637 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:20 PM

Daniel: Building on what Random wrote, I think SHIP does not take land into account, but rather assumes the cylone (in this case, Jose) will be moving over water during the entire period of the model run. DSHP attempts to take into account the actual terrain the cyclone will pass over. Of course, the output from both depends in large part on the input and on the projected forecast track, among other factors....one mountain can make a huge difference. So the difference in the "forecasts" from the 2 is not unusual.

-Brad


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Isaroni?
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48638 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:26 PM

>>It will give you a better idea of the depth of the storm. 3-D if you will.

Also presumes that a system is stacked. It's pretty usual that with the US Generated model (GFS), various layers show vortexes at different positions where they don't usually align. While the upper vort-maxes and features are helpful for guidance and tying everything together, without a mature "stacked" storm, they're all guestimates IMHO. Using the surface plots and then looking at the 200, 250, 500, 850, etc. can help narrow down range of future motion and hone in on whether that model sees true intensification and to what depth. But ultimately we live at the surface, and if a model is correct, that's the weather we'll be seeing down hea'.

Steve
Thanks, Steve. Here at work, my thought train gets interrupted. You painted a better picture. I used to check the SFC plots. Then I realised that you can have a shower at the surface without having a vortice above it. The opposite is also true. An elevated vortice may be present with out a surface reflection.~danielw

isaroni.. ack, don't say that word! -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 23 2005 12:48 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Models [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48639 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:40 PM

To follow on from your post, and clarify my own:

"Similar to SHIFOR, SHIPS was developed from cases where the storm track did not cross land."

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

--RC

Are you looking over my shoulder? I was just reading that same page!~danielw

Telepathy can be a fun thing --RC

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 22 2005 11:43 PM)


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orlando fl
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: Isaroni?]
      #48641 - Mon Aug 22 2005 11:54 PM

the FSU model has TD 10 near cape canaveral then moving west across the state and another storm a couple hundred miles east of it ?? is this a good model at all??

It seems to do better with Trop. Storms and above...i.e. better signature. Be sure and check the model run time, as they don't always update very 12 hours.

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2005 12:00 AM)


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Models [Re: orlando fl]
      #48642 - Tue Aug 23 2005 12:09 AM

orlando- do you have the link for the FSU model? I would be interested in looking at it but for some reason can't find the link
thanks


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orlando fl
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: orlando fl]
      #48643 - Tue Aug 23 2005 12:10 AM

im sure its the last run see for yourself http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...Animation...let me know what you think ........3 was enough for me last year with Charley taking the #1 spot for house and property damage for me

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Models [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #48644 - Tue Aug 23 2005 12:13 AM

You can get to it at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ as it runs; the runs later get input into http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ with some additional/different products there. The model does reasonably well with the overall pattern & its features, but there hasn't been a real system out there since we changed the convective scheme in the model about 10 days to two weeks ago (Irene occurred during the middle of that). Thus, we don't know entirely how well it is going to perform from here on out. My guess is that intensity will be underdone, but it's a necessary trade-off to keep terrain features from playing a huge role.

Generally, it is run every 6hr when there is a tropical storm in the basin and every 12hr when there is not one. Technical glitches sometimes interrupt the runs.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Models [Re: Clark]
      #48645 - Tue Aug 23 2005 12:21 AM

Orlando. It's showing the 12Z run right now. That would be the early (sunrise) Monday run. Latest runs tonight should have 0823/00Z, or something similar on them. Right now the GFDL on ten-L would be the latest of all those models.

Clark, they changed the parameters? I thought it was doing really well as it was.


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Models [Re: orlando fl]
      #48646 - Tue Aug 23 2005 12:24 AM

Thanks orlando and Clark
I think you may be right orlando but I'm not that good at reading these models. Still learning I had enough last year with Frances and Jeanne right on top of me just got house repaired and I for one am on pins and needles. I am fascinated with these storms but I tend to favor the fish spinners
I can't help but think of last Labor Day and Frances beating my house for seems like two days

Edited by DebbiePSL (Tue Aug 23 2005 12:27 AM)


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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #48647 - Tue Aug 23 2005 12:35 AM

Looks like the GFS no longer develops #10 through 7 days...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_m.shtml
Nam/ETA could be interresting (FWIW) moving up the coast of fla and near Melbourne as a 1004mb TD by day 4
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
Im not so sure but dont think NAM is a good model for tropical systems BTW

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2005 12:45 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
status [Re: Jekyhe904]
      #48648 - Tue Aug 23 2005 12:53 AM

earlier i was progging xtd 10 to reform tuesday... may or may not get that one. the mid-level vorticity and surface trough/weak low are still lined up, but convection has been spotty and jumpy all day. part of this has to do with the diurnal convection associated with hispaniola and cuba. with that wave approaching from the east and the shortwave ridge trying to build over it as the upper low to the north slides west.. the thing should become better organized tomorrow. whether it's a depression is more doubtful, but i'm fairly sure this thing will be a tropical storm in a couple of days.
away to the east 97L is getting closer to warm SSTs. it's slowly becoming better organized.. should start to rev up pretty good when it gets closer to 45w. as before.. probably going out to sea.
jose is the third system to rapidly form over the BOC this season and slide westward. the area around tampico/veracruz is being pummeled by midgets this year.
HF 0453z23august


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Models2 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48649 - Tue Aug 23 2005 01:02 AM

The updated/ latest models are in.
Hank, I'm in agreement with you, as usual, on the Tropical System in the Bahamas. Strange as it may seem the GFS has totally lost the signature in the 23/00Z model run.
The NAM is plotting the system but nil on the NGM, to no surprise.

I mentioned earlier that the NHC models had Jose' way out west at 102kts in 48-72 hours. I checked the latest GFS run, and it is forecasting nearly the same thing. I failed to notice that the 23N/ 115W coordinates were well into the E. Pacific. So Jose' may become the first ATL storm to cross over Mexico into the Pacific this year. 48 hours should tell us whether he will make it or not.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Models2 [Re: danielw]
      #48650 - Tue Aug 23 2005 01:07 AM

Danny -- yeah, a couple of parameters were changed, mainly to account for the problems that the model was having with terrain-induced areas of lower pressure hitting warm SSTs and rapidly spinning up into hurricanes.

I don't think Jose stands a chance of making it to the EPac as a trackable tropical cyclone. Some mid-level energy from the storm may make it across to the East Pacific and bring about a near-shore tropical storm there, as some of the models are calling for, but given the very small size of Jose and the amount (and type) of terrain it will have to travel over, I don't think we'll see it make it there as Jose, if at all.

I'm going to throw up a quick update on the blogs in just a bit with more.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
the system that Stephen King would be proud of.... [Re: Clark]
      #48652 - Tue Aug 23 2005 04:18 AM

I am going to be very curious what visible light brings for former 10. the system that refuses to die. Can't really tell from IR what's lurking down at the surface. I don't think it's organized yet, but it's not for lack of effort at this point. Heck, I imagine everyone and their golden retrievers are watching this system. I still find it interesting/amazing how stubborn the system has been. (even if in general it's probably not the origional TD10 anymore... it's close enough)

Anyone else want to say TD at 5PM today? Caveat being, that there is a LLC somewhere down there and the system continues to organize and the storms don't die as soon as I go to bed

-mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of.... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #48653 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:05 AM

Mark,
i will kind of join you in saying it 'COULD' be a TD today. IR imagery shows some improvement in the organisational structure overnight. First light visibles should be interesting, and with the Recon going out later we will no doubt find out for sure if it has succeeded in making a comeback.

97L has also become better organised overnight, and i think we could see it classified today. Dry air to its west is giving it a somewhat lopsided appearance, but the upper-level conditions arent bad, and the SST's are warm.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of.... [Re: Rich B]
      #48657 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:19 AM

From the Extended Outlook for West Central and Southwest Florida:

THE COMMON THREAD TO THE SOLNS IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE PENINSULA FOR THE PERIOD...SO SEE NO REASON TO GO LOWER THAN 50 POPS EACH DAY. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR FRI AFTN ONLY...AND GO WITH SCT POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF GOING TO 60 PCT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD UNTIL WE ACTUALLY SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.


Interestingly, the forecaster who wrote this mentions twice that the NAM model brings a tropical storm to the Florida east coast, but discounts it, as he is sticking with GFS for now.

The model runs this morning seem unanimous in bringing something across southern Florida. Which makes me wonder what the FSU superensemble shows, since historically it performs the best. Can Clark or anyone confirm that the superensemble is in agreement with the other models? Or does the superensemble only get run for genuine storms, and not mere waves? Sorry for the stupid question, but I'm still trying to learn.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
X10 97L [Re: Rich B]
      #48658 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:22 AM

Rich, 97L is looking slightly ominous this morning. The size of the system as a whole is very unusual. Even on Infrared loops it appear to cover over 1000 nm.

X10 looks to have kept most of the Turks and Caicos residents awake for the last few hours with consistant lightning and thunder. Area of dry air to the NW of the vortice center. Hasn't managed to choke off the system ...yet.

Looks like Rabbit might have to get out his magic bag to kill this one!


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