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95L getting better organized today, Recon scheduled for tomorrow. Cuba, S. Fla and the Keys should watch. Epsilon moving away.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Delta) , Major: 58 (Laura) Florida - Any: 744 (Michael) Major: 744 (Michael)
36.9N 62.0W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nne at 12 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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jbmusic
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: se wv loopy [Re: ralphfl]
      #49882 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:59 PM

Is it just me or does the eye look better defined over land now than it did over the water?

no...but just watch her bomb once she hits the GOM

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


Edited by LI Phil (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:03 PM)


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: se wv loopy [Re: LI Phil]
      #49883 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:59 PM

This has certainly been one of the more interesting storms I've tracked & I feel for the NHC in trying to make the right call...imagine the coffee pots have been running 24/7.

Looking forward to the next update & especially the one following it.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: se wv loopy [Re: twizted sizter]
      #49884 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:07 PM

What I'm reading from the NHC is that they're concerned what the system will do intensity-wise:

"KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING Katrina TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF Katrina IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL. "

Full source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/260257.shtml

In case you don't quite understand why this is significant:
Global models are very course in their analysis of the world weather. This is becuase they are analyzing so much. The result is they are unable to predict anything eyewall or inside (and often not anything even near that). For a global to drop so much in pressure either means (a) the eye is very big or (b) the eye is a LOT lower pressure then the global model. Either way, that doesn't sound like good news.

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:11 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: se wv loopy [Re: jbmusic]
      #49885 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:09 PM

The eye certainly doesn't look any worse than it did when coming onshore. I have trouble imagining it weakening as much as the official forecast suggests, considering the way it looks right now. The intensity forecast as a whole seems pretty conservative.

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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: se wv loopy [Re: ralphfl]
      #49886 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:09 PM

Quote:

Well none of the models show that nor the NHC so what do you see (link) that shows a reason on it going north soon and no later then 24 hours?




You might what to look at the link LI Phil posted and check the speed and direction of movement of that high in question. I also check steering currents and pressures. I have been tracking typhoons and hurricanes since my first typhoon in 1970...most of the time I get lucky...or like with Charlie unlucky....sometimes I can find solid data before hand and see something.....but normally post analysis puts it all together....and as a side note.....find your own darn links.......

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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lockjaw
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Tampa/St. Pete re-entry odds? [Re: twizted sizter]
      #49887 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:12 PM

I live on the beach...literally...on St. Pete Beach. If this thing builds up and gets close, I'll have to board up and get out, so I'm watching very closely for any potential moves in my direction. Anyone got any educated guesses on the odds that this could be steered back in my direction after stewing in the Gulf for a while? I just saw a model that pushes it precisely that way (the A98E)...

(Please, no "gut feelings" or wishcasting...just looking for someone who understands the science a little better than I do as to what might steer this when it hits the Gulf in a couple of hours...)


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OcalaKT
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Re: se wv loopy [Re: ralphfl]
      #49888 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:14 PM

Quote:

11pm is out and the path is about the same maybe a little more west yet again so where is this north turn you guys see that they don't?


Heck the west coast is about out of the cone! hmmmm guess they dont see any chance of a ne turn now do they.




If you look at the five day cone, must of northwest, and central florida are still in the cone


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: se wv loopy [Re: firestar_1]
      #49889 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:14 PM

The west Coast of Florida is almost out of the cone (And yes charlie hit in the cone) half of the east coast of Florida is out of the cone and if this keeps going west when i wake up all the coast will be out of the cone.Where it is now was still in the cone so these posts of going up the coast and going across the state you guys need to go talk to the NHC since they took all of C florida out of the cone.

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:16 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: se wv loopy [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #49890 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:15 PM

Quote:

The eye certainly doesn't look any worse than it did when coming onshore. I have trouble imagining it weakening as much as the official forecast suggests, considering the way it looks right now. The intensity forecast as a whole seems pretty conservative.




Yeah, I'm thinking the same thing. The eye hasn't shown any signs of disruption while overland. It's been overland for almost 5 hours now, and it still looks strong. If it exits in 3-4 hours as predicted, I don't see any reason for the intensity drop that NHC is predicting. It will be moving over VERY warm water, approaching 30-31C in places. This is ripe for development, and if the eye stays intact, it doesn't even need to reoganize.


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: se wv loopy [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49891 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:15 PM

Steve and Scott, I just saw the latest ETA model run on another board. It agrees with your thinking. ETA Run Image

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: se wv loopy [Re: twizted sizter]
      #49892 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:15 PM

The N turn will be from the trough over the N plains and eastern Rockies right now, should be over the Missouri valley tomorrow, ohio valley on sat and Se US and eastern seaboard on Sunday...what does that mean? A trend to the models MUST ensue to the E in time. 1-2 might not want to pick it up until the last moment. People may say,,look at that strong ridge over Arkansas that will slide and and reinforce a push south of the frontal trough..the same push it gave Katrina now to the sw (which most models predicted). this will drive it down to the panhandle across georgia and the Carolinas on sunday,,now with saying that,,Katrina will have to push NE along and ahead of the trough. Matters on her speed of movement from now until sunday. Faster she moves (10mph friday-Saturday) will give her enough time to get further NW in the gulf to near 85 w making landfall near panama city or she will go more east where I been projecting it.
Btw 1 model ( ETA ) is out now on the 0z run,,it has her getting to 85W but then move N and NNE to CrossCity by 84hours....this is a shift to the right as predicted...we will see if the major globels do the same. Will post more around 2am.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tampa/St. Pete re-entry odds? [Re: lockjaw]
      #49893 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:18 PM

Quote:

I live on the beach...literally...on St. Pete Beach. If this thing builds up and gets close, I'll have to board up and get out, so I'm watching very closely for any potential moves in my direction. Anyone got any educated guesses on the odds that this could be steered back in my direction after stewing in the Gulf for a while? I just saw a model that pushes it precisely that way (the A98E)...

(Please, no "gut feelings" or wishcasting...just looking for someone who understands the science a little better than I do as to what might steer this when it hits the Gulf in a couple of hours...)




I think right now we are looking at "wait and see." We have no clue anymore what this thing is going to do. Almost all the models show no loopback, but the environmental conditions show it might happen. But then almost all the models also aren't showing the system doing what it has already done the last few hours.

So, back to the "wait and see." If I were you, I'd pay very close attention to satellite and be prepared to go if you see it start heading toward you tomorrow. It is pretty clear that nothing major is going to happen tonight. It has to have a chance to strengthen, but I'd expect that to happen fairly quickly after it leaves land.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Upper Winds [Re: Frank P]
      #49894 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:19 PM

Quote:

good eye Margie... I think it might be more of a wobble to the west but tracking the se section of the overall eye feature and it still looks wsw to sw....



Yes I still don't know jack about forecasting, natch, since I have no training or college courses on meterology, but have worked really hard since July on trying to read and understand the sat images and radar images, which is something you can still try to do even with little specific met knowledge. It is enjoyable, even if I can only track after the fact. I'd get so much more out of the info presented here however with some basic training. Am maybe going to try to find some courses I can do either online or after hours.

It is great to be able to come here and find out so much information from all the knowledgeable folks.

I had thought for a minute she was slowing down but holey moley, guess not.

So...the 11pm discussion did mention the direction as 225 rather than 265 deg and adjusted the speed as well, and mentioned the high Phil showed on the wv loop.

Now, is there any chance that all that convection that built S of the keys that Skeet mentioned and that you can see so well on the sat, is going to merge with the TS as it exits into the GOM? Maybe get pulled into feeder bands from the S and help speed the increase in intensity?

Also...isn't it interesting that with the Gulf Stream and with the feeder bands on the E and S, that hurricanes going W into Miami area continue to strengthen over land for a short time (Andrew did too, right?).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
Re: se wv loopy [Re: Steve H1]
      #49895 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:20 PM

what do you think hes thinking? scottsvb that is. I know what you're thinking. Stay tuned. tell us please..

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: se wv loopy [Re: scottsvb]
      #49896 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:20 PM

what aboiut these 0z runs which are out? http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: se wv loopy [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49897 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:20 PM

Quote:

Steve and Scott, I just saw the latest ETA model run on another board. It agrees with your thinking. ETA Run Image




To use: Copy the link ( http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-491-1125025748.gif ) and paste it in your URL bar after you click on it. They've got their site set up to block offsite links


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: se wv loopy [Re: OcalaKT]
      #49898 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:22 PM

Correct Random, you don't see the EC do that every day. That means something - carries weight. Interesting, but not to be taken too seriously, the new NAM takes Katrina from the coast off SW Florida, then northward, then SW towards the Central GOM, then NE again towards the Florida coast near the Suwannee. Anyone remember Elena? Now biggie size it!! Yes this will get interesting. Still amazed at the convection between Cuba and Katrina. That sky must be lighting up!

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: se wv loopy [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49899 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:26 PM

Big Red, I didn't see the ETA model when I pulled up the link

--------------------
RJB


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: se wv loopy [Re: Steve H1]
      #49900 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:27 PM

Quote:

Anyone remember Elena? Now biggie size it!! Yes this will get interesting.




Since people are talking about Elena, here's the track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/ELENA/track.gif
(purple = Cat 3)

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:28 PM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
After South Florida [Re: Steve H1]
      #49901 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:29 PM

i think she has the time and the potential and the factors to maybe become strong 2 or minimal 3 and affect from Panama City to St.George Island and the Apalachicola area to the Apalachee Bay area. So basically from Bay to Gulf to Franklin to Wakulla counties could be in for a strong 2 min. 3, i got this info from the spaghetti model plots.

-Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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