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95L getting better organized today, Recon scheduled for tomorrow. Cuba, S. Fla and the Keys should watch. Epsilon moving away.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Delta) , Major: 58 (Laura) Florida - Any: 744 (Michael) Major: 744 (Michael)
36.9N 62.0W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nne at 12 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Eyewall [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49723 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:54 PM

At 5 Pm NHC had it 15 miles ENE of Ft. Lauderdale and 25 miles SSE of Boca Raton ? Miami would be in the wrong direction

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49725 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:57 PM

strongest radar vel. i see are 71kts just off of miami..at 1425ft and above fort. laud. at 2000ft....max out on radar but are close to ground....i think landfall will be official around next 15 mins or so...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49726 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:58 PM

looks like its moving perhaps just south of due west... nice center showing up in the latest radar loops.. Keys would NOT want the GFDL solution to play out.... radar presentation looks so cool... you don't see this picture every day...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NCR_lp.shtml


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49727 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:01 PM

anyone have real-time surface wind data from reporting land stations?

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Eyewall [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49728 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:04 PM

Quote:

Looking at the radar on local news, it looks as though Miami may be the area of landfall; it's just south of Ft. Lauderdale and it's still offshore. Looks pretty healthy to me, also. Weird storm.




I totally agree. I think even maybe a hair south of Miami, just skimming the lower part of the FLA peninsula, coming out south of Everglades City, and still a lot of warm water feeding it from the south the entire trip over the peninsula.

Whoever pegged the baro at 980-985 earlier, got it almost on the nose.

So...this one is definitely going to make landfall before midnight.

I think the divergence in the models in the GOM is interesting and 2-3 days from now we're all going to be glued to flhurricane.com!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Eyewall [Re: Margie]
      #49729 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:07 PM




miami landfall?
nah!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: High Pressure System [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #49731 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:09 PM

base ref. tilt 1 radar look

will add storm rel velocity soon...and . base velocity ..

doppler rainfall estimates: scale on left

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 25 2005 06:16 PM)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #49732 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:10 PM

Looking straight into the eye of the storm if u look closely it has know wobble alittle bit to the NW. Dont know if u guys see that but take a look at the radar movement.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Eyewall [Re: Margie]
      #49733 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:11 PM

Just reviewed some of the other posts...well if it is not moving south, there is certainly a huge shift in the convection to the south over the last couple hours.

Guess since that smaller eyewall just couldn't get wrapped around the W, it all opened up.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49734 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:14 PM

I am seeing the same thing. It appears to be wobbling back toward the northwest, maybe wnw. The center looks alot better also. I wonder what the intensity is right now. It appears to continue to strengthen even though part of the eye is ashore. Mets what do you think about this? Also does this mean a slower trek across the state with the numerous and erractic wobbles?

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #49735 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:18 PM

380,000 w/o power in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties now

--------------------
RJB


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #49736 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:19 PM

Something about that eye looks strange on radar. The eye was much smaller and further east on radar an hour ago. Then it seemed to "grow" over the coast while the eastern edge stayed in the same place.

I'm wondering if what we are seeing is another dry air intrusion to the west of the real eye, obscuring the eyewall on radar and making it appear further west than it really is.


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49737 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:20 PM

NHC had a 6pm posistion estimate but when I opened it up its at 4PM ????

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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49738 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:21 PM

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE Katrina WAS ESTIMATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST...OR ABOUT
10 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49739 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:27 PM

Quote:

NHC had a 6pm posistion estimate but when I opened it up its at 4PM ????




Your browser's cache didn't realize the page updated.

Hold down SHIFT and click RELOAD. This works in both IE and Firefox/Mozilla/Netscape


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
landfall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #49741 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:42 PM

hollywood, then.. at about 6:25 pm. missed the landfall point by 25 miles, and a day early.. eh, coulda done better. the inner core definition really improved this afternoon, so it's good that Katrina is going ashore. had it come in later tonight it would have been significantly stronger. the eye should fill back up overnight. its going to rain like hell in south florida for much of the next 24 hours.. the wind should be pesky but not cause much structural damage. maybe this time tomorrow Katrina will be moving back offshore near marco island or chokoloskee as a mid-range tropical storm. it will probably take 12-24 hrs for the inner core to spin back up, so by late saturday the storm should get back to hurricane. it still looks like a monday landfall.. in the panhandle. earlier progged the al/ms border area, but even though some guidance has lingered there or shifted back, i think clark had the general location right. the models taking Katrina in near cedar key/apalachee bay are blowing up a spurious low off the east coast.
the canadian and euro are both showing a major hurricane at landfall. that was my initial though.. now seeing two globals putting it into the panhandle on monday have my blood up. i expect the NHC intensity forecast to continue slowly rising.. my range is cat 3. higher isn't out of the question, but anything higher than cat 3 is sufficiently rare that i'm hesitant to go there.
97L is still being called 97L. the center here/convection there problem is partially remedied in that some weak convection is blowing up near the center, and the main inflow band to the south has drawn closer in. the t-rating is too weak, but that's just based on the cloud signature.... there are likely 30-35 kt winds associated with the system. like i said last night, it may never be classified as a tropical cyclone since the NHC likes to ignore sheared fish spinner type systems.
the inverted trough south of Katrina will have to be watched for whatever piles up around it.. the disturbance to the east is a can of corn with all that convection but not even a surface trough apparent. wave behind 97L still shown to develop on some plots.. and the one behind it on others. that's for another day.
HF 2242z25august


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49742 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:43 PM

what is all that crap se of Katrina its a mess. and where is Katrina heading after this? is there anything else gonna sneak up on us?

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49743 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:46 PM

Thanks for the good browser refresh tip.

OK if you look at the Miami experimental radar loop, the last three frames, you will see a bit of reforming in the original area that was the tiny eye area where the wall tried to wrap around and got almost due west before it opened up again. It does not show up as the clear area, but is to the right of the clear area.

I don't think the larger clear area is actually the center, but the center is still a much smaller area to the E of it.

I still think it is possible to see drift as far south as Miami before landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: landfall [Re: HanKFranK]
      #49744 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:50 PM

Kind of strange how she tracked at 26.2N all day then at 5pm dropped .1N to make land fall change that much so close to shore. Just goes to show I guess Its not over till its over, and Katrina isnt over yet.

Hollywood....well I guess Katrina's A Star now...

Edited by Big Kahuna (Thu Aug 25 2005 06:53 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49746 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:06 PM

OK so landfall right at the cty line about 15 mi to the N of where I thought...but as that dry area filled in you can clearly see it was not a large eye, the real eye is now very discernable as you can see rotation around a very small area just barely offshore.

Still looks like some continued southward movement or drift.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 07:11 PM)


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