Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 252310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/22:58:40Z
B. 25 deg 52 min N
080 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2988 m
D. 65 kt
E. 8 deg 015 nm
F. 116 deg 063 kt
G. 009 deg 013 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 13 C/ 3044 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF305 0912A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 63 KT NE QUAD 22:54:40 Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Colleen -- Ridge in Texas would result in a trough to the east, wanting to help turn it more towards the north. The ridge is not projected to build in back towards the east; instead, a trough is projected to move across the northern US and grab the storm.
To the person asking about what Naples may see: likely winds to 50mph, but largely a lot of rain. Isolated severe storms/tornadoes, but the biggest threat will likely be 8-12" of rain.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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lost hurricane city again. so what does the effect do on moving sw. whats gonna happen now? and what is all that mess behind her south? 
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Katrina is going to wobble across the state in a general westward motion with the occasional southward drop. It's inland now and will remain that way; theoretically, if it wobbles southwest and then back northwest as it nears the west coast as some of the guidance suggests, it could stay over land for a longer period of time than expected...albeit that's a matter of just a couple of hours. The short-term track will have little impact on the second landfall location; it's still a timing issue.
Note that the inner-core wind field of the storm will not weaken all that much over the Everglades, very wet and very warm right now, but that the strongest winds with this storm for the next day or so will be located along the east coast & over open waters. This is a scenario similar to last year. took about a day to cross the state; given a slower motion here but less land to cross, a similar evolution seems likely with this one.
For more, see HF's update above.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Max Mayfield was just on CBS in Miami, he expects a second landfall in the Florida Panhandle, "the northwest Florida peninsula" area. Obviously he didn't buy (nor did I for that matter) the 18Z runs that went westward.
A little bit ago Jim Cantore said this was the strongest cat 1 he'd ever been in. He ought to know.
Also, sad to note that two deaths have been reported in the Miami area.
95 mph wind gust on Virginia Key . 
edit: *Latest is now in line with track.*
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
Interesting. With both and back towards the east of the other guidance, track still looks dead on.
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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so what is that mess se of ? it looks bad.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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The new model has shifted big time to the right know it takes it to the florida panhandle
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Well, don't really know why but we lost our power for about an hour and TECO said it was weather related. The winds are up but...in my opinion not enough to knock out power. We are back up though. Not even raining right now. Just some good strong gusts every now and then.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Amazing about the . I do see a soutward vector on this storm now.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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TECO is just getting you guys ready for the next hurricane.  My buddy in Ft Lauderdale is sitting without his power. Considering how slow the system is moving, I am guessing some folks are in for a long outage until the trucks can come in.
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Jim
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Amazing about the . I do see a soutward vector on this storm now.
Yup you can see it very well comparing the sat images on the beg and end of the loop. IMHO the center is not the open area...the center is just due W of Miami right now and is clouded over.
Edit: Eye just cleared a bit at 00:12Z, now a little easier to see. The radar is a little bit behind...wind in Miami already coming out of the SE, not the SW (as would be the case if the eye moved directly W after landfall).
Looks like dir since landfall has continued SW 225-230 deg. At this rate if she doesn't bear more W soon she'll move right over the everglades and exit NW of the keys at the entrance to Big Lostmans Bay.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 12:42 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Clark...so the trough that would grab the storm: it all depends on the timing of the trough and where is as to where landfall happens?
Thanks for answering my questions! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Notice the blow up of cold high cloud tops on the last few frames of the IR. If this southward vector continues, she will be over the "open" waters of the warm everglades. she will weaken, but I wonder how much.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Colleen -- yep, pretty much. Essentially, the faster it goes now, the further west it ultimately gets. A motion about 5-6mph is pretty much accounted for; it should slow as it begins to turn north tomorrow or early Saturday, and then begin to move again towards the north at a fair rate of speed.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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It's amazing how well has held together. If you look at the visible satellite loops from the last few hours, you can see the southward movement very well just before she made landfall.
I wonder what other surprises she has in store for us. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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I don’t buy the idea that a cyclone will be able to sustain itself considerably better over the everglades. Andrew, for example, was moving at a fast clip, and still lost a good deal of strength. I would, however, be interested in comparing storms that have taken similar tracks over the home of the seminols, so to speak.
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cheers
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
It's amazing how well has held together.
someone forgot to give the cane hunters the proper batch of dynagel 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'm amazed by the amount/look of the convection just south of the Keys on IR4. Incredible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Airports with reports in the last 30 minutes. Emding at 0033Z, 8:33 PM EDT.
Airports reporting high winds. I won't breakdown the different airports due to space.
All measurements are in knots.
BCT 37G56
EVB 20G28
FLL 37G52
HST 23G30
HWO 39G56
MIA..............PRESSURE AT 29.17" or 987.9mb !!!
PBI 24G31
PMP 39G52
SUA 20G26
TMB 37G51 0.5 MI visibility and heavy rain.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/metars/
Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 26 2005 12:46 AM)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Computer models are starting to turn back to the right with a bend on them intersting to see what happends later on.
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