LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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someone with sharper eyes than mine do me a favor...mets included...click on the wv loop again, this time filling in the "radar" and the "Trop Fcst Pts" check boxes...tell me if you think this is way south (the COC that is) of where the tropical forecast points are indicating...cuz that's the impression i'm getting...hmmmm
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005
..KATRINA RELENTLESSLY POUNDING SOUTH FLORIDA...CALM OF THE LARGE
EYE EXPERIENCED AT THE National Hurricane Center...
Ooops, haven't we seen this before??~danielw
AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:23 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Okay, Daniel...can you now put that discussion into layman's terms? I have no idea what the heck all that means. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Phil - I am no met but yes, it looks as though is moving more wsw than w right now.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Looking at the streaming of WFOR from MIA and it looks like that the eye has just passed over I-75 through Alligator Alley and it definately looks like it's moving SW and looks like it may enter the GOM between Everglades City and Neal Boortz' 2nd hometown of Naples. What would that do to the 96 hour track when it makes the second landfall?
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I don't think its going 230 degrees, maybe 260 at best... I think 265 per the is about right IMO .... does look like its following the UKMET at the moment... time will tell...
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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South movement has been mentioned by several...looks it to me as well...very obvious on the link you provided...not a met though & I'm not wearing my glasses.
Is this a little jog or a definite shift in the forecast track? If a true movement how this affect part 2 of ?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Phil, I'm getting the same impression you are..now let's see if anyone else sees it! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I am wondering just how much we will feel in Bradenton, Fla - 50 miles south of Tampa. The NOAA web site for my area hasn't been updated since 2:00pm and the track of has since shifted south and west. Any ideas??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Looks like a party is starting down in south Florida. Look at the convective bands from south of the Keys connecting to the bands near the center. I believe she will lose litttle intensity, if she keeps drifting SW, since the inflow from the SW is feeding the center nicely. I'm not sure i'd by any of the forecast tracks after 36 hours. Lots going on to the north and south of the center. If she hangs around long enough she may sit in the GOM off Naples and head NNE ahead of the trough. Steering currents will be weak in the GOM, as the ULL in the central GOM heads WSW..anything is fair game once its in the GOM.. 
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Okay, Daniel...can you now put that discussion into layman's terms? I have no idea what the heck all that means.
I put too much in the post. Here's the beef!
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Yes, the center is definitely south of the forecast consensus. I would think the 11PM advisory will reflect that. Also, with taking that more SW/WSW track, the center will be over land for a somewhat shorter time since the distance is less. Looks like entry into the GOM will be in Florida Bay. I wonder if that will mean a somewhat later recurvature than currently forecast. With SSTs rather high in the western Gulf, I would expect a somewhat rapid intensification once the center of circulation gets clear of the coast. It will be a very interesting weekend.
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Michael
PWS
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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If the trough keep heading south does it has a chance to pull a ?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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she is moving south some now....i would say she be back over the water (GOM) in 6-10hrs.....not good! I would also expect a shift in 10pm adv... to the left and west.... not good for folks along panhandle.... outer eyewall now over /nws center..... center just to the wnw of their office....also i am see some signs of rotation in the feeder band fixing to come ashore along miami area...as i write this....se edge of eyewall right on top of kamx radar.....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Seeing SW movement again and curious about something.
Is there any merit to the idea that the center might rotate around the area of strongest convection? Just wondering because it appears as if the red area of highest dBz stayed almost stationary and rotated from the S to the SE, and the eye slid SW past it. Or is that simply an optical illusion?
The center of the storm is now over the everglades.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:36 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
If the trough keep heading south does it has a chance to pull a ?
I'll never say never, when dealing with the weather.
Charley deflected/ turned to the right due to a early season cool front moving SE through the ALMSLA region. It stretched from near Panama City toward the Yucatan or Bay of Campeche.
The current setup is a trough/ weak front running east to west from Jacksonville area toward MS Coast...Please correct the positions if you have an updated map plot.
Miami International Airport reported a peak wind gust of 68kts-78mph at 8:55PM EDT. Highest gust found so far.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:38 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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its really interesting to get the opinion of the professional mets regarding the future path of ... I've read during the past hour or so on the internet that several have commented that the ridge is alot stronger than anticipated and that the system would be more west than forecasted by the .... then again several have discussed that its going to go to the big bend area of Florida... all these mets are pros, they do this for a living... and they're the best in the world at what they do, they have access to the best equipment and data analysis available ... and they can't and don't agree.... that''s what makes this systems so facinating and addictive to follow.... bottom line, I'm going with the because they are the best of the best , but they to can and do sometimes miss the boat 4-5 days out in their predictions.......
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'm looking at the Miami radar and it looks to me that the eye just made a due south move the last couple of frames. Could it be following the latest solution?\
(Edit: ahrg...why can I never spell ???)
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:37 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>>ON THIS TRACK...THE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
can't put anything past the can we?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I saw that and boy that was some wobble to the south.... we need to see what happens in the next couple of frames to see if it is stair stepping downward in an overall wsw to sw motion... nothing never surprises me about these things..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NCR_lp.shtml
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