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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge
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HughWolfgang
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Situation Reports - Katrina
      #49772 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:49 PM

I still don't buy the NHC forecast of 2nd landfall near Apalachicola. Just don't see the storm doing that with its current motion of west by west-southwest. The computer models seem to be flip-flopping back and forth, which leads me to believe somewhere in between their flip-flops will be reality.

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weather1dude
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: SE,USA
Re: Situation Reports - Katrina [Re: HughWolfgang]
      #49837 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:09 PM

Always listen to the NWS and take this as only my opion.

I think Hurricane Katrina will emerge into to the GOM tommorrow morning. As a weak TS.(IE 45mph.) I think it will emerge near key largo. I think it will rather abrubtly turn WNW the gradually turn NW. I go with the GFS model untill it gets inland. I think it will get to Atlanta before taking an abrupt NNE turn into the upstate of South Carolina. I don't think this thing will stall inland and cause the type of Carostophe flooding Frances did to Asheville NC.

For intesity as I said before I feel it will go in the GOM as a weak TS but rapidly strengthen to a Cat 1 24 hours after reemerging into the GOM. I say it will be like Hurricane Erin with 105mph winds on its second lanfall. Reemember this is my first forecast and I appreciate any comments or concerns. Thank you and God bless.

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HughWolfgang
Unregistered




Re: Situation Reports - Katrina [Re: weather1dude]
      #49850 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:23 PM

I just don't buy the models on this one. As someone else said, timing is everything, but I don't see the trough picking it up that soon - especially with the turn to the WSW - it appears that Katrina will emerge in the GOM south of the latitude where it made landfall north of Miami - granted several models forecast this. I'm going to go with a landfall somewhere west of Apalachicola - perhaps well west of there - as a Cat 3 or Cat 4 (the GOM is HOT). As far as predicting the intensity when Katrina emerges into the GOM - I'm think it's not going to weaken alot, based upon looking at the satellite and radar presentation, which appear to be getting better as it traverses the peninsula. Best guess: Katrina enters the GOM tomorrow mid-afternoon as a 60 MPH tropical storm, but regains hurricane intensity by the 5pm ET advisory.

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