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Barry now inland over eastern Mexico. Flooding and mudslides a risk there the next few days. Elsewhere, now watching SE US for next weekend potential development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 264 (Milton) , Major: 264 (Milton) Florida - Any: 264 (Milton) Major: 264 (Milton)
Rem Barry
ADV#7 5:00 am EDT
23.0N 99.2W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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HughWolfgang
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Re: Situation Reports - Katrina
      Thu Aug 25 2005 10:23 PM

I just don't buy the models on this one. As someone else said, timing is everything, but I don't see the trough picking it up that soon - especially with the turn to the WSW - it appears that Katrina will emerge in the GOM south of the latitude where it made landfall north of Miami - granted several models forecast this. I'm going to go with a landfall somewhere west of Apalachicola - perhaps well west of there - as a Cat 3 or Cat 4 (the GOM is HOT). As far as predicting the intensity when Katrina emerges into the GOM - I'm think it's not going to weaken alot, based upon looking at the satellite and radar presentation, which appear to be getting better as it traverses the peninsula. Best guess: Katrina enters the GOM tomorrow mid-afternoon as a 60 MPH tropical storm, but regains hurricane intensity by the 5pm ET advisory.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Situation Reports - Katrina HughWolfgang Thu Aug 25 2005 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Situation Reports - Katrina weather1dude   Thu Aug 25 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Situation Reports - Katrina HughWolfgang   Thu Aug 25 2005 10:23 PM

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