Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Landfall forecast is now the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the Pearl River, from what I can tell. Big change from 12 hours ago. Winds up to 105mph.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
All... The issued an intermediate Public Advisory at 8pm, but no Discussion. All of the maps from to weather uderground, to the ones we use here are created using the plots included in the Discussions.
I'm sure the maps at your favorite site(s) will be updated shortly.
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
GFDL brings it to 124kts and 922 mb at landfall...the SENS is even stronger at 131kts at landfall (Cat 5)
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
You folks are drifting away from topic - lets refocus on the storm. A forecast of 115 knots would indeed be a category IV. Remember that on this site if you are critical of someone else's forecast - I expect to see you post your rationale - and follow that up with your own forecast and the reasons for it. If its just a gut hunch (and I have those too from time to time) put your post in the Forecast Forum, but don't put it here. Don't be critical of other posters simply because you don't care for what they say. That doesn't hack it here. Weather Forecasting is a long way from being a full-up science, so lets put an end to the Monday Morning quarterbacking.
ED
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND CONSISTS OF
A PERFECT A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN WHICH BEGINS OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND WRAPS AROUND A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
BAND IS PROBABLY PRODUCING NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON IR IMAGES...RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM SAB
AND HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE SCALE. THEREFORE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TYPICAL 200 MB
ANTICYLONE...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPWARD TO THAT
LEVEL. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES.
IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS
KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. THE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124
KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING TO 131 KNOTS.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IS A CATEGORY HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR .
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:54 AM)
|
SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
As promised...
Katrina
 
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
can always hope it never turns  that would be better.If it shifts as much tomorrow as it has today it will be a texas or mexico thing (and the weather underground is still wrong showing a red dot)
it's had that bug since it's inception. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 27 2005 03:55 AM)
|
bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 60
|
|
Could this this actually get up between 122 and 131 knots like some experts are saying..... this thing is a monster!!
|
DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
|
|
Just heard that the track will be shifted left according to the once the latest data is put in can anyone confirm this?
|
Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
|
|
Quote:
[I think you know this already, but in case someone else doesn't, XTRP is simple extrapolation of the current motion and speed...it's NOT a model.
I can hope, can't I.... unfortunately, I am aware of that, but I really like the idea and was hoping that we could wishcast it that way. The current scenario is not favorable for me, and I'm a little concerned. This is especially true when reading comments like this from the discussion:
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE.... CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... and my personal favorite: THIS CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
When you live in southern Louisiana, you just don't want to see these things....
I knew YOU did, but our more casual readers might not know that...just wanted to clarify...
--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by wxman007 (Sat Aug 27 2005 03:06 AM)
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Don't be critical of other posters simply because you don't care for what they say. That doesn't hack it here. Weather Forecasting is a long way from being a full-up science, so lets put an end to the Monday Morning quarterbacking.
ED
Yeah, sorry I snapped at Ralph. A couple things he said just ticked me off.
------
Anyway, looking at the tracks and intensity I'm not liking one bit.
NHC intensity chart {source}
Code:
INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.6N 83.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W 25 KT...BECOMING
115 held for 48 hours? That looks dangerous, especially considering the intensity forcasting problems when storms get that strong. Once they hit Cat 4, forcast intensities often don't predict intensification or weakening very well. The storm intensity becomes driven more by eyewall cycles than any real direct change in strength.
--RC
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
This is setting up to be another worse case scenario for the MS gulf coast.... if all this comes to fruition expect the total destruction of every casino on the MS coast, imagine the economic impact to MS..... I'm hoping for a continue more trend to the west... need another 50 miles west
|
HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
|
|
(off topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 27 2005 03:19 AM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
I apologize for not putting links on the above posts.
I was trying to edit them for the bad news and get them out fast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Meanwhile ED has to step in and help with the 'name' calling and flaming. I'm glad he stepped in because there is too much going on for that.
I don't want to put people on probation...but I will.
Already have 1 tonight.
Read the posting rules...before you send your post.
Remember Phil's rule if your topic ain't Tropic, your post is toast.
If you can't say something nice about someone ( including and NWS), then don't say anything at all.
Thank You now back to our regular, nerve wracking programming. 
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
As promised...
Katrina
Well there is is...deja vu 1969.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
This is setting up to be another worse case scenario for the MS gulf coast.... if all this comes to fruition expect the total destruction of every casino on the MS coast, imagine the economic impact to MS..... I'm hoping for a continue more trend to the west... need another 50 miles west
Hate to burst your bubble, but the casinos are required to be built to withstand Cat 4 winds. Any that can't have to be moved into the interior bay (Back Bay). They will suffer serious damage, as will every structure likely, but they will not be totally destroyed.
50 miles further west would bring the inner core over new orleans. that's not a very positive thing either. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 27 2005 04:00 AM)
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
How much father west do we need for it to miss going to LA i sure dont want to see gas going over 3$ a gallon here in florida i have a budget now.
As of right now there are only a few that take it west of LA
Edited by ralphfl (Sat Aug 27 2005 03:06 AM)
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
OK, I am officially worried now. I am with Terra, I don't like to see things like 30.5 89.5, 135MPH, increasing confidence, etc.
The hotels are already booked, and we will not even have the minimum 50 hours needed to evacuate the area, much less the needed 72. I mean they just put that new track on TV here in New Orleans and I could feel the thud come down over the city. The newscaster (Mike Hoss) said it right when he said DRAMATIC CHANGES in the last 12 hours.
--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
|
|
Quote:
115 held for 48 hours? That looks dangerous
Why does the do this....keep it as a Cat 4 but hint at the two models pointing to a 5? Instead of erring on the conservative side for loss of life, just come out and predict a Cat 5 to get everyone and their brother out of LA/MS/AL. If it hits as a 3 or 4 then everyone's happy anyway.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
