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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: gas [Re: Lisa NC]
      #53177 - Thu Sep 01 2005 12:09 AM

just for comparison sake...i filled up this morning...unleaded reg was $2.99/gal

yesterday it was $2.79...

the good stuff is now $3.49/gal

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Waveland [Re: LI Phil]
      #53178 - Thu Sep 01 2005 12:25 AM

I saw they finally reached Waveland and Bay St Louis (by helicopter). It was just as bad as I feared. There was nothing in this area but slabs and trees with all the leaves ripped off. Remember I believed this to be the area with the highest surge...although it hasn't been measured yet. This is the place where there was so much water there was nothing off of I-10 but a lake according to an eyewitness account...the water was so high it covered everything.

There isn't even very much debris in Waveland because it appears it was all washed out to sea.

It looks like the destruction in BSL also went up the back bay and Jordan River and leveled everything there (I think the video may have been of Diamondhead). Of course the Hwy 90 bridge was gone.

The reason I believe the surge to be so high here is that this is the area that was hit directly by the northern eyewall coming from the south. Usually when a hurricane hits a south-facing coastline the largest surge is just to the east of the eye. However I believe in this case with the winds rotating CCW that as the large eye moved north and the curve of this extremely large eye fit the curve of the shoreline, the storm surge that was being pushed north was concentrated by the strong eyewall winds and pushed west into the curve of the shoreline. This is why I also believe that Slidell and the LA coast next to MS also received a very high storm surge. Also, remember watching the storm on radar, I saw a very intense portion of the eyewall rotate around the radar and move over the Waveland to Slidell area.

I would not be surprised to learn upon analysis that the storm surge was over 40 feet in this area.

Something else that has been on my mind...

Not too many weeks ago Clark posted a link that let you view satellite images of a hurricane's path and you could see the slabs from communities that didn't rebuild after Andrew. Well I used the same satellite image viewer to go over the Waveland BSL area that was ground zero for Camille in 1969. I found a small area that was clearly the imprint of a small housing development that had never been rebuilt; although it looked like the slabs had been covered with green, you could still see the outline of where the homes had been.

Now those entire cities are basically nothing but slabs.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: gas [Re: bamffl]
      #53183 - Thu Sep 01 2005 01:05 AM

FYI, I paid $3.019 p/g at the 7-11 on US 98 N and Griffin road in Lakeland at 7:45 PM. I was told I was "lucky"; they were almost dry. Ugg.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
september time [Re: Margie]
      #53184 - Thu Sep 01 2005 01:15 AM

we're near the climatological peak of the season. pattern is continuing more or less like it was in august, but MJO is switching to slightly mitigating. activity still occurs on the downturn, so the active waves in the atlantic right now have modest chances at development. SOI is pulsing, and when it does that you tend to get delayed-response activity in the atlantic, if other enhancing factors are in place... (enso neutral, early september, warm SSTs everywhere.. yeah, thats enhancing).
so anyway, lee is looking flimsy, interacting with an upper trough and a couple of nontropical lows to its west. it may be absorbed by them, absorb them, or just weakly rotate around them. we've had storms not classified as such on a t-2.5 rating before, so the NHC's attitude is again inconsistent. lee has convection, but it really isn't any stronger than it's sheared cousin to the south, 91L.
91L has a t-2.0, and that's with a good deal of shear. factor in that shear results in an underestimate of strength.. well, you do the math. well defined LLC with this, and deep convection flaring on and off the core today. the NHC says it isn't organized enough (it's just sheared), so it's a tropical low for now. it's working its way wnw through an upper trough.. and should be getting on the enhancement flank of an upper low immediately to its west, so it'll probably develop... over the next couple of days. NHC seems to be waiting on a sustained burst, based on the TWO lingo.
92L is trucking westward right now, and most modeling keeps it on a much further south track. it has a better chance of getting into the western atlantic and perhaps affecting the ne caribbean next week, but this is highly uncertain. the development chances are modest, as it is at a low latitude. good signature, though, so given a couple of days it may be something.
models are progging a large area of general low pressure from the eastern gulf out to near bermuda.. as part of the pattern pulse/upper weakness trapped south of the large surface high descending from canada in Katrina's wake. this sort of pattern generates tropical cyclones near the east coast sometimes... potentially in the gulf, but most likely off the east coast. far enough east and it will likely drift out to sea... closer in a stalled, sheared, slowly developing hybrid type storm would be what we're looking for. most global models indicate something like this will be present around the weekend timeframe.
i don't really have anything positive or useful to say about Katrina. staying detached because the facts make me emotional. there are repercussions that will be felt from this storm in aspects of all our lives. but i have no right to complain... for me the coming things are an inconvenience and a drag. folks i enjoy reading... members of our board.. are homeless now. my regrets are for them.
HF 0515z01september


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: september time [Re: HanKFranK]
      #53187 - Thu Sep 01 2005 01:52 AM

Sat image of the destruction along the west part of Beach Blvd in Pascagoula, and the inner harbor. Place your cursor over the picture and in the lower RH corder a box with arrows will appear; click on it to zoom in.

http://mfproducts.nos.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24329662.jpg

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: september time [Re: HanKFranK]
      #53188 - Thu Sep 01 2005 01:56 AM

Thanks for the update. I hope nothing develops out there but I will stay alert and be prepared. I love this site and the info I get here is so valuable to me. Keep up the great work

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: september time [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #53193 - Thu Sep 01 2005 03:55 AM

My son just got home here in Lakeland at 3:30 a.m. he says that he had to wait in line for 20 minutes to get gasoline and that in the east side towards Bartow, the stations were out of anything but the high priced stuff and there were still lines. It is starting to look like we will be out of Gasoline by tomorrow morning. Unless the city transit system runs on diesel, that option of public transportation will be gone soon as well. I am not speculating on how long it will take for that because I know nothing about gas supplies or what kind of engine runs on what. I do know that many, many people in our city are totally reliant on public transportation, from the city bus to the chauffers from airports to the mini-buses for the handicapped and assisted living facilities in the area. It is almost 4 in the morning and I am sitting here thinking that people seem to manage to get themselves transportation to all sorts of fun time activities and spend thousands of dollars on concert events, football, baseball etc. I wonder about the ingenuity that is available to take on the activity of getting homeless housed, hungry fed, and needy transported in the unaffected areas of our country. As for the subject of the gangs and the non-destitute looters, I hope that the US military regard those criminals as public enemy number 1 and quarantine them like they did the accused Al quaeda at Guantanamo. If they are forced to live with themselves and each other confined from the enjoyments of life, the punishment might be better than being shot on sight which is another alternative in my personal opinion.

One more comment on this and I will relinquish the spot to others who need it, but I urge any of you who have any influence with the news media to ask them to downplay the "excitement" of the gangs and looting etc. This type of behavior spreads like wildfire to bored teenagers, and other functionally handicapped people. The more press it gets the worse it will get. If the press promotes the possibility of being shot on sight doing criminal behavior, it will send a message that it is unacceptable and not romantic to be dying while trying to heist an ATM.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Thu Sep 01 2005 04:35 AM)


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Dr. Lyons [Re: jaybythebay]
      #53198 - Thu Sep 01 2005 07:11 AM

Quote:

Earlier tonight I heard Dr. Lyons say he was concerned about a possible low devolping in the Gulf in a few days. Please tell me this is not possible.
unfortunately high pressure will not dominate the gulf from now until doomsday. yeah, there's something peeking on the models. might be east of florida... might be in both places. might be a phantom. will see. -HF




left over forntal action from Katrina may develop something east of florida early next week per GFS but we will see waht happens, enjoy your weekend. I would be a bit more concerned about the next 10-21 days in the atlantic, looks prime to me after our too systems clear out to the N and we are approaching the climatoloigical peak.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
sat imagry of MS coastline [Re: jlauderdal]
      #53200 - Thu Sep 01 2005 07:36 AM

I posted this in the disaster forum as well but thought it might be of interest here.

However mods can delete if not.

Here is the entire satellite photo database.

http://alt.ngs.noaa.gov/katrina/KATRINA0000.HTM

It appers incomplete and put together hurriedly. The boxes are not placed exactly over the land they correspond to. Also the names on each are mislabeled (the Pascagoula one is actually points east; Ocean Springs is actually Pascagoula and Gautier). Many of the coastal areas (such as the portion of Ocean Springs south of 90 at the bay) were not photographed at all. Also the 2nd level zoom in maps are not geographically correct (Bay Bay Biloxi missing from the map) but if you know the area you can figure it out).

Looks like either a first pass, or they didn't have the resources to do as many as they normally did for Ivan or Dennis.

Everything on the coast west of Bay St Louis bridge (which is also gone, as are all the Hwy 90 bridges along the coast), is either slabs with no debris, or completely taken apart debris (piles of wood), including back bay and Jordan River area of BSL. SW of Waveland, continuing along the coast, clearly the area of strongest outflow of the surge, caused by the strong southern edge of the eye as it passed over. All the debris generated by the NW and W portions of the eye was sucked out. Deep east-west gouges were left on the shore with strips of sandbars piled up for 1/4 mile offshore.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Sep 01 2005 07:54 AM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Yanks donate $1M to relief efforts [Re: Margie]
      #53201 - Thu Sep 01 2005 07:48 AM

here's a story on the yanks giving $1M for relief efforts. nice...also nice to see brett favre taking such a vocal role in recovery efforts

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Yanks donate $1M to relief efforts [Re: LI Phil]
      #53203 - Thu Sep 01 2005 08:04 AM

Hey sports fan, I sent you a couple PMs.

Yes you can send this post to the graveyard now.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Gas [Re: Margie]
      #53206 - Thu Sep 01 2005 08:15 AM

I drove this morning Palm Beach County has no lines and gas prices haven't moved much yet. There have been reports in Broward County that station owners are raising prices for gas they already have (gouging). Port Everglades is making a 5th site available today for oil products which should help.

Without getting into economics of gas it seems the real problem is that alot of people want to get gas before the price goes up. I see the real problem in natural gas for the winter.

Regarding TD Lee; being that's my name I'm glad it's out to sea. :


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Re: New Orleans is a Tough town [Re: Katie]
      #53207 - Thu Sep 01 2005 08:24 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Just looking at CNN, many are talking about how Ivan and Dennis and Francis and Jannie and even Charley all had things to normal in a matter of days, this storm aftermath will take months.




I hate to be mean but,....it didnt' take just days for us to clean up after those hurricanes. Some areas are STILL Cleaning up! Until you live in it day in and day out - you don't really understand - I know with Ivan they were still destroyed when Danny came through - you really shouldn't listen to what CNN has to say and ask some people who went through are are still cleaning up. This is going to take years to rebuild. Even areas down in South Florida that were hit by both Jeanne and Francis in the same place are rebuilding. And this was far worse but,..it is not an over night clean up . Maybe for a tropical storm but you have to realize, yes, it is going ot take a while to clean up but the areas you mentions are still cleaning up too. And it has only been a year. Keep that in mind...





They weren't talking about the clean up, they were talking about how things got back to normal. That is what they were talking about. Of course they know the clean up doesn't take a couple of days, after all they were the same people down there through each storm that came through and reported that things were still rebuilding.

When they said normal they meant many went back to work a week later, they got electricity back on in a matter of days, some areas the day after it hit. You know they had a sense of things were getting back to normal and everything would be ok..

No one in the wake of Katrina is even thinking of those things right now, nor will they next week, or the week after that.


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Hurricane Lee to Boston [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #53208 - Thu Sep 01 2005 08:35 AM

Quote:


Regarding TD Lee; being that's my name I'm glad it's out to sea. :




I don't know about that Lee. As they say "Till it's all spin out, don't count it out"



Huh, My local Fox Good Day news show jsut reported that People(Gangs that aren't gettingo n the buses) are shooting at (military) helicopters in New Orleans..Waht the hell is happening to the Big Easy?


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Lee to Boston [Re: Takingforever]
      #53210 - Thu Sep 01 2005 08:42 AM

re: looters shooting at choppers...not necessarily confirmed...apparently RIVAL GANGS have been shooting at each other...after they looted gun stores and loaded up...and some of those shots were in the viscinity of the evac choppers...as a result, the evac of the superdome has been suspended (confirmed)...

reports and video footage of church collection boxes looted...this is just crazy

btw, anyone see that Trent Lott's 150+ year old vacation home was destroyed?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Hurricane Lee to Boston [Re: LI Phil]
      #53211 - Thu Sep 01 2005 08:47 AM

More sat photos of the damage - these include before and after of New Orleans:

http://www.digitalglobe.com/katrina_gallery.html


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Lee to Boston [Re: LI Phil]
      #53213 - Thu Sep 01 2005 09:00 AM

Wow 150 year old beach house..Goes to shwo that this was once in a 100 year type stuff...

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
tropical storm lee to the north atlantic [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53214 - Thu Sep 01 2005 09:19 AM

the basin is likely to go quite active next week. here's the rundown:
nhc tracked the convection and not the center of lee last night.. the center has become more established in the broader low in the area. it won't strengthen until convection redevelops, or maybe the center will migrate towards the convection in spite of current steering to the nw. based on location and synoptic pattern, it has zero chance of affecting land.
91L has likely been a tropical storm since late yesterday. it's maintained a t-2.0 in spite of running underneath an upper trough, and has a vigorous surface circulation that is occasionally firing convection. now it's working into the exit region of the upper low, so the prospects of further development are good. wondering how many more advisory cycles the NHC will say 'thats not a tropical cyclone' when it looks better than irene did for days. some of the models are taking it more westward than earlier, but the long term trend should be north of the islands and nw to the bermuda vicinity. i'll get to what's happening up there in a minute.
92L has some serious long term prospects if it can get organized. numerous track models are strengthening it into a hurricane and moving it into the caribbean. there may be a good deal going on to the north that will add great uncertainty to the long-range... GFS has it slowly recurving in the western atlantic for days (and doing a loop by the end of the last forecast run.. in mid-september). the system is sheared from the east, but maintaining a t-1.0 rating... has for a day now. probably won't start any real development (and most all guidance suggests it will) until it nears/passes 40w.
western atlantic and gulf... still several model depictions of what happens here, and none of them are that comforting. this situation is something i learned to look for from mr. joe b, and the models have been getting steadily more aggressive with it.. the pattern pulse. Katrina's wake trough is pulling out and leaving ridging aloft to settle off the east coast, while a large upper high digs in over the eastern u.s. and synoptically forces pressure falls from the eastern gulf out to near bermuda.
various model response to this... CMC develops a storm off the east coast that is moving towards the mid atlantic... most of the other globals spin up a duet of lows.. one near bermuda and one near the bahamas. GFS has the bahamas system moving across florida and the gulf into texas.. NOGAPS has a similar pair but a shorter run... euro has three weaker features, but one migrating into the gulf, another moving towards the SE, and another staying quasi-stationary near bermuda. of the model runs, the eastern-most in the low pressure series appears to be interacting with 91L... lee appears to be out of the picture. the system from 92L, if it comes to pass, will be moving in to the south of this large area of unsettled weather.. how it will interact is dependent on an already uncertain complex set of features to the north.
suffice to say, we may have a substantial burst of activity, and several models are depicting a significant system entering the caribbean, and activity potentially in the gulf or near the atlantic seaboard. could be getting busy over labor day weekend/into next week.
HF 1319z01september


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Lee to Boston [Re: Takingforever]
      #53215 - Thu Sep 01 2005 09:24 AM

Quote:

Wow 150 year old beach house..Goes to shwo that this was once in a 100 year type stuff...




The key factor was the height of the storm surge, which is the killer.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: tropical storm lee to the north atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #53217 - Thu Sep 01 2005 09:38 AM

Quote:

, and activity potentially in the gulf or near the atlantic seaboard. could be getting busy over labor day weekend/into next week.
HF 1319z01september




I am not liking you too much right now HF
I hope NONE of this pans out.....crossing fingers and toes

I am also not liking that ridging setting up over the east coast
that looks to me like wayyyyy too much High pressure for my liking during
hurricane season


--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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