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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Northern Bahamas
      #53722 - Sun Sep 04 2005 05:35 PM

A weak LLCC is evident near Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, at 26.7N 78.4W at 04/21Z. The low level center is drifting to the north northwest to north. Southwesterly wind shear is evident to the northwest of the system. Expect slow movement as the steering currents are quite light. SSTs are certainly warm enough, so slow development seems likely.
ED


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Area of Interest - Northern Bahamas [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #53755 - Mon Sep 05 2005 07:34 AM

I think this one is a bit too close to be much more than an irritant. The WV loops seem to imply that any steering will be slow and not too supportive of crossing the state to harass the Gulf. More likely to be a rain and breeze event eventually makeing a trip to the Atlantic where it *could* become of interest to shipping. However, because of its location, you *have* to pay attention and if it sits there long enough, the overall patterns could change enough to support a NW movement. I hope I'm right when I say that I don't believe that will mean more trouble for the Gulf.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Area of Interest - Northern Bahamas [Re: Ricreig]
      #53764 - Mon Sep 05 2005 10:51 AM

Richard,

I hope you're right too, although I'm wondering what WV loop you're looking at. It looks to be headed straight for the east coast of Florida, to me...then a turn to the NNE/NE toward the Big Bend area. I'm sort of surprised that the NHC isn't paying more attention to it because that's just north of where Katrina formed.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Area of Interest - Northern Bahamas [Re: Hugh]
      #53784 - Mon Sep 05 2005 01:14 PM

The NHC discussion says a 1010mb low is centered around 25n79w drifting SW?
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N79W BETWEEN THE N BAHAMAS AND
THE S FLORIDA COAST...DRIFTING SLOWLY SW. THIS IS A BROAD AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THUS...THIS COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THAT TIME. AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 74W-80W.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Area of Interest - Northern Bahamas [Re: Hugh]
      #53814 - Mon Sep 05 2005 07:00 PM

Quote:

Richard,

I hope you're right too, although I'm wondering what WV loop you're looking at. It looks to be headed straight for the east coast of Florida, to me...then a turn to the NNE/NE toward the Big Bend area. I'm sort of surprised that the NHC isn't paying more attention to it because that's just north of where Katrina formed.


I'm looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
and while it may move somewhat West initially, I think it will move NW near the coast (east coast) or slightly inlland then be deflected to the NE. It is so weak that even low level currents should catch it. We'll see. Regardless, I see some rain and breeze in our future. I just don't really think it has the 'space' to spin up into anything serious before hitting land. In fact, the western edge is already grazing FLaud or so it appears.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Area of Interest - Northern Bahamas [Re: Ricreig]
      #53816 - Mon Sep 05 2005 07:32 PM

Quote:

I'm looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
and while it may move somewhat West initially, I think it will move NW near the coast (east coast) or slightly inlland then be deflected to the NE. It is so weak that even low level currents should catch it. We'll see. Regardless, I see some rain and breeze in our future. I just don't really think it has the 'space' to spin up into anything serious before hitting land. In fact, the western edge is already grazing FLaud or so it appears.




If the shear doesn't let up, it won't develop into anything - which looks likely in the immediate future I think. If the shear DOES let up, there's less chance of a NE deflection, I think. It's kind of interesting that the models went from taking it west across the Gulf to taking it NE along the Atlantic coast.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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ANNIE
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Northern Bahamas [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #54000 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:04 AM

Inland Jacksonville: Heavy clouds, no rain this AM, winds still, very soggy.

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