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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
Is the October "spike" real or just a statistical anomaly/artifact?
      #54759 - Thu Sep 15 2005 12:22 AM

It has always puzzled me to see this bump upward in storm numbers amidst the trending (smooth) decline after the first 1/3 of September. I would like to think that the small sample we have of storms; <125 years, is the reason and that a few hundred more years of data would take care of my suspicions.

I am cognizant that the possibility exists during the transition from the most active TS period to the end of the Eastern season, factors may come into play in a way that enhances storm formation during this suspect, by me at least, few weeks.

I am so far removed from the little knowledge of statistics I once had that I'm unable to run data and do the testing required for assessing statistical significance and confidence in the validity of the October outlier.

The answer I seek may already be in the literature and/or you may have ideas about this issue. Any thoughts or help will be greatly appreciated.

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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