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Invest #90L now up to 60% ch of development (NHC). Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings may be issued later today. Extreme rainfall and flooding, regardless.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 614 (Milton), US Major: 614 (Milton), FL Any: 614 (Milton), FL Major: 614 (Milton)
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


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Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Is the October "spike" real or just a statistical anomaly/artifact?
      Thu Sep 15 2005 12:22 AM

It has always puzzled me to see this bump upward in storm numbers amidst the trending (smooth) decline after the first 1/3 of September. I would like to think that the small sample we have of storms; <125 years, is the reason and that a few hundred more years of data would take care of my suspicions.

I am cognizant that the possibility exists during the transition from the most active TS period to the end of the Eastern season, factors may come into play in a way that enhances storm formation during this suspect, by me at least, few weeks.

I am so far removed from the little knowledge of statistics I once had that I'm unable to run data and do the testing required for assessing statistical significance and confidence in the validity of the October outlier.

The answer I seek may already be in the literature and/or you may have ideas about this issue. Any thoughts or help will be greatly appreciated.

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_

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* Is the October "spike" real or just a statistical anomaly/artifact? Multi-Decadal Signal Thu Sep 15 2005 12:22 AM

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