rwjaco19
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Charlotte Co., FL
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ralphfl,
I would like to pont out that this forum is not intended for people to attack people. After the devistation caused by I think people along the Gulf Coast have a reason to get a little worried. Let people share what they think and do not worry about it. If they are wrong then they are wrong. I have only been a registered user since of this year. This a forum to share information. By the way I live in Biloxi and feel very fortunate/guilty for still having a house that is liveable. After what has happened here I hope you understand why people get a little up tight. Now please keep your post on this forum to what it is intended for and not loose our mind here when there are people along the coast that need to keep it together and not panic.
Sgt C
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// rwjaco19
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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way things are looking today, west of houston isn't going to work out. there's still model guidance taking it over there, but the consensus has shifted and the storm has continued to trend right of forecast track. so the folks who've been agitating for western louisiana are getting more and more credible. cameron and vermillion parishes make up the western third of the coast, and both are low, swampy, and sparsely populated.. a nice buffer for populated areas unless you happen to live there. lake charles is inland, with lafayette/new iberia further to the east. in terms of affecting large numbers of people with its worst winds/surge, between the sabine river and marsh island isn't a bad place for the hurricane to go. certainly not as much to break as near the upper texas coast.
anyhow, many have noted this stuff: the deep convection has picked back up with , which suggests that it's made it through that morning eyewall cycle and will restrengthen a little. it may cross back to 5 or hover in upper 4 territory, but with each eyewall cycle the storm should return to a lower state than its insanely strong status overnight. thus the 3/4 range of prediction for landfall. if i can't get my location right (from four days out) i can at least get the intensity. surge will be on the high side of whatever the impact category is... and pretty much all the forecast models are slowing the storm down near the arklatex region, so expect a tremendous inland rainfall event. storm may end up drifting southward or southwestward early next week. it isn't going to affect new orleans very badly, but as it's running closer their rainfall/persistent low surge could complicate things. the decision to hold off on letting people back in was a good one.
elsewhere it has also been noted how philippe is becoming involved with a hybrid-looking complex system. philippe itself is actually still coherent, but the large upper low appears to be acquiring a surface reflection... and will probably compete with the tropical system. area of disturbed weather southeast of this region near 12/49 is looking a little better today... may merit mention later. new wave off africa looks surprisingly good for late september and merits watching as well.
synoptic pattern for the coming week-2 weeks is tough to pin down right now. the ensembles have been changing their minds a good bit from day to day--looks like an early fall transition will be under way. the threat for another system in the eastern caribbean may be offset by the persisting weakness in the central atlantic. some evidence that a strong ridge will evolve near/off the east coast in the wake of one of these canadian highs, so there is still a disconnected pattern signal supporting a system near the east coast/caribbean in early october. not confident on the changes, though.
HF 2016z22september
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Quote:
and I suppose deservedly so.
now, back to my observations...consistent with most everyone.
it will be interesting to see if starts a more nnw direction....in the next 6 hours we shall see. She is definitely going nw....no doubt about it. and the projected direction by the was more on a wnw..
not splitting hairs....but consider that a 15 degree change in direction is HUGE when you are 500 miles away.
and IF the percieved point that we are working with...(the 's plotted point)....then let's work with it. All I am doing is noticing a continuing trend east of the track. And even after the adjustment....Rita went east again..and this time even more than earlier today. I still believe a New Orleans hit is possible...and if I get put on probation....whatever.
my current thinking is will come within 75 miles of New Orleans...(west of the city)...and that is subject to change...as I've had to do since this morning..when I figured a Galveston/Houston hit...
I don't hang on to old ideas of where she will go...when the eye obviously is going elsewhere....ADJUST is what I do....
the will in about two more hours.
was the post at the beginning not read when it comes to your own persnal wishcast? they said to pos then in the other forum did they not? and with something besides your gut feeling to back the track up.This storm would have to turn North NOT nnw even but North now to get near N.O so drop it in this forum already.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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facts:
1. is tracking right of the forecast track and has been for a while. Rick you've been calling it. Check any of the Floater Loop and click the Tropical Forecast Points box or look at this. Link 1
2. is tracking right into the warm Vortex Eddy and will have a fairly warm route from here on in. Link 2
3. On IR the convection is clearly better organized. The red donut is coming back and she is more symetric. The plain eye can see this.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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No whenever he has been able to post he has called for a N.O hit or even east of there just like he does with each storm this season.The storm would have to back NE almost now to go there.
Edited by ralphfl (Thu Sep 22 2005 08:21 PM)
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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Holy schnikies!! Check out this buoy it's taking a beating !!
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
97knot winds 
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Pablo712
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Quote:
That means, if you double the speed, you quadruple the force.
A 150 mph hurricane will cause 4 times the force (damage?) as a 75 mph hurricane.
I´m from Argentina. I've been reading this site or a year o so, I found very interest track those canes.
Regarding this...I think a 150mph hurricane has 4 times the FORCE as a 75 mph hurricane BUT NOT 4 times more DAMAGE, a lot more than 4 times....
Lets analyze only the damage from winds and not the storm surge:
Every "damageable" object (houses, trees, signs, power lines, etc) has a force troubleshot (the force that can take without collapse); if the force of the hurricane maintains below that force the damages are minimal otherwise the force of the hurricane will made the object collapse and the damages will be max.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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interesting note on the following
The Votex reports are about 10mins apart
AF had EXTRAP 914 mb....while NOAA had 913 MB...
both report the eyewall open.... but 10 mins after NOAA report (Open NE-SE) Airforce reported only Open E....
also there was an C16 in AF
and a C018-48 --- Line M.
URNT12 KNHC 221939
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/19:22:40Z
B. 25 deg 44 min N
089 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 149 deg 122 kt
G. 062 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 914 mb
I. 9 C/ 3658 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. C16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A 01 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z
URNT12 KNHC 221948Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1913Z
B. 25 DEG 44 MIN N
89 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2329 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 43 DEG 133 KT
G. 309 DEG 10 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 13 C/ 3059 M
J. 20 C/ 3044 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. C018-48
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A OB 37
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Rita IS tracking right of the forecast track, but it is also PARALLELING it at the moment
if two cars are travelling north, and one is to the east, that does not mean that the one on the right is moving northeast, such is the same for the hurricanes track
it WOBBLED off of the forecast path, and is now paralleling it, that does not mean by any means that it is moving NNW or it would still be getting farther off the track. The fact that it is moving away from the initial point (which any non-stalled storm would do) is confusing people since there is no forecast track line on the satellite loops. NW movement? yes, but not NNW. there is a difference
It is also of note that warm water is not the only factor in intensification--there is a lot of dry air ahead of , and the western Gulf at the moment has a lot of southerly shear in it, which the hurricane will be entering in another 12-24 hours
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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but it is NOT tracking parallel at all. there's at least a 7-8 degree difference...and the current path is slightly....ever so slight n of nw....so it's eventual direction in about 3-4 more hours, maybe more...will be nnw...
imho....
and I do hope ralphfl takes his medication...
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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do you mean .7-.8 degrees off the track?
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Rabbit,
Rita is not paralleling . Look at my Link 1 again.
Paths were touching and now they are divergent by quite a distance.
Plus has adjusted right on each forecast so that those lines then true up again and continues to stray right of the forecast.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ralph, rickonboat, lurker, everybody who posted about Accuweather:
i'm real busy and don't have time to run around fixing your posts. follow the site rules about not attacking, not posting no-reason forecasts on the main board, not perpetuating the problem by commenting about how you don't like somebody's comments. i don't want to start deleting stuff, so throw me a frickin bone. there's plenty to talk about that fits into the acceptable categories... shouldn't be a problem.
HF 2033z22september
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
What little respect I had for them is now gone. If they were posting on here, their views would be sent beyond the Hurricane Graveyard post haste. Irresponsible, sensationalistic, immature, (add your favorite negative adjective here). Oh, forgot disgusting.
well, i have to comment....i'm not in any way affiliated with any weather forcasting agency whatsoever...but competition is a way of checks & balances. its all good. Accuweather is telling (in a passive way, albeit) when their weather products are useless. should take all criticism with a grain of salt, of course -- they are the glue that holds all weather forcasting together. but they should always listen to discerning forecasters. otherwise we have a state-controlled one-way thinking hurricane center.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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the thing that we're all seeing is that the hurricane is East of it's projected track points. Therefore any eventual curve to the NNW will cause it to have a landfall East of where it was originally projected to go.
No one is saying it's currently on a NNW path.
Definately NW but not NNW and East of the 's path but paralelling it.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Here is a link to the latest forecast track from some of the models:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
There is a clustering of forecast tracks near/just north of Galveston. The , which is not plotted on that map, is much further north. The , which is also not plotted, takes the system very close to Galveston. Interesting to note that one model (the A98E) stalls the system off the coast, which is a remote possibility, but one that can't be discounted if the steering currents collapse as depicted in the (which brings the system onshore before stalling it).
An extrapolation of the current movement takes the system very close to Galveston. Something that is important to remember here is that while the track of the system has consistently been a little north of the forecast track so far, the forecast track itself starts to bend to the north in about 6-12 hours. There is no guarantee that will start bending further north when the forecast says it will, or that it will bend further north at all anytime soon.
I am not trying to be inflammatory about insisting that the storm could still hit the Houston/Galveston area, I just want to make sure that anyone there doesn't let their guard down, since the buzz seems to favor a more northern track at the moment.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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She closed off now!!!! (eyewall)
URNT12 KNHC 222032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A 01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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there are two problems with using your links:
Link 1: the recon plots still indicate what i said earlier: steady NW movement, now NNW
Link 2: that forecast is 18 hours old
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modeleste
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
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Quote:
Rita IS tracking right of the forecast track, but it is also PARALLELING it at the moment
What I've been seeing is different. It is simple to see using the Trop Fcst Pts here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
Each time the center has passed one of the marked points it has passed to the east of it.
The mark and the track are then moved east so that that mark has been passed over-- exactly-- by the eye.
By the time the eye gets to the next mark it is again east of it and the track is moved again. I've been watching this since yesterday,
The storm route almost approaches a spiral tightening to the right.
Thus the movement of forecast landfall from south of Galveston to well north.
However if the trend continues (I don't have any idea what is causing it, I'm just looking at it as a trend) the forecast landfall laggs to the west and the route will
continue to tighten toward the right.
Edited by modeleste (Thu Sep 22 2005 09:15 PM)
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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There is definitely a smooth NW path right now. Certainly not paralleling the WNW motion. I agree that we may see a turn more NNW, but I don't know that it will be tonight. That said, If it did turn NNW (contrary to what some on this site seem to want to believe), it would come very, very close to New Orleans. Even on a more NW course into central/western LA, NO could be in a world of hurt. As mentioned ealier, the wind and core of the storm is not what NO is afraid of. It is excessive rain and storm surge and they most certainly will get both......to what extent, we don't know.
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