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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: qualms [Re: Hugh]
      #57995 - Thu Oct 06 2005 10:12 PM

the latest surface chart from TAFB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

the low off of the tip of yucatan i saw early today moving ashore... should exit south of cancun if it holds...(here's GOES 12 i was watching see the low?

the low over panahandle.../x-tammy.... is off okaloosa county (sandestin/destin) and moving southward... (notice in above graphics was forecast to move from SE ala.... towards the big bend area... clearly i think it's much more to the west and under or just to the north of the ULL in the GOM...

having a time trying to find 93L tonight... i still think it's there... just weak...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Oct 07 2005 12:37 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: qualms on all the systems [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57996 - Fri Oct 07 2005 12:39 AM

Seems like every system out there has at least two "ifs" that could happen ..

Thanks for the discussion here HankFrank and everyone else.Trying to make some sense of it.

I think the wave is looking more and more likely to be a player if it doesn't fall apart.. as it is staying low.

The area south of Cuba is hanging in there, reminds me of a few systems that John Hope ended up watching carefully because of persistence yet in the beginning he didn't think much of. Persistence does pay.

Wondering on remnants of Tammy.

Yes..lots of qualms..lots of "ifs" ...

Thanks for trying to make some sense of it all..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: qualms on all the systems [Re: LoisCane]
      #57997 - Fri Oct 07 2005 12:50 AM

may be my eyes... but i think there are more storms near x-tammy center tonight than in last 12-24hrs.... the low is off-shore and looks to be tracking wsw.....is tammy making a comeback? it's been a weird season.... she would have to fight that ULL and that approaching cold front...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/evx_N0R_lp.shtml Eglin Nexrad

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mob_N0R_lp.shtml Mobile Nexrad

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Oct 07 2005 01:05 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: qualms on all the systems [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57998 - Fri Oct 07 2005 02:16 AM

done some quick research...... and based on a few things... looks like the low south of pensacola is moving westsouthwest..... and based on radar.... there are some storms near center....(87.3w 29.7n) used MOB ridge site..... also was looking at Water Vapor and it looks like the ULL and surface low are almost on top of each other..... storms that are near the center.... only go up to about 17-20ft from what i see.... and there is alot of DRY air around... mostly to the east... also took a look at the buoy's near the rotation ....

Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
(based on my quick distance calculation: buoy is 65 miles to SW of center)
As of 11:50pm cdt
Winds: 20kts gust: 25kts
dir: NNW
Pressure: 29.67 -0.02in (falling)
wave hgt. 7ft
water temp: 81

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mob_N0R_lp.shtml Loop from Mobile

OH YEAH...this is from the TWOAT at 10:30pm

"THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY WERE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
NON-TROPICAL LOW OBER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OR MEXICO. "

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Oct 07 2005 02:22 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
6AM EDT Update [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57999 - Fri Oct 07 2005 05:54 AM

From the New Orleans NWS Area Forecast Discussion...very nice morning wrap up!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF TAMMY HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ESTIMATED LOCATION IS 195 MILES EAST OF NEW ORLEANS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AROUND THE CENTER BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAR FROM FAVORABLE FOR ANY FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY STRENGTHENING. THE PROBLEM IS NOT INTENSIFICATION BUT MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SFC LOW IS NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE ANYWHERE JUST YET AND THE STRONG HIGH RIDGING FROM THE NW IS CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NW AND W OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS CAUSING CONVERGENCE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG WITH WINDS ON THAT SIDE AS WELL. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FOR GPT AND MSY WITH THESE CONVERGENT BANDS UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP AND SENT NE.

(bold emphasis added~danielw)
By the way...The 5 AM EDT Trop. Weather Outlook contains no mention of the system formally known as Tammy, or the Low that is currently South of Pensacola and moving toward the East.
The Low has basically performed a U-Turn during the night. Being pushed back eastward by a cool front currently moving through Mississippi.

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 07 2005 06:01 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 6AM EDT Update [Re: danielw]
      #58001 - Fri Oct 07 2005 07:08 AM

Ok, now, I just woke up to a nice looking swirl coming off the northern Coast of the panhandle. Some one is on this I hope in that we have a lot of people in the area who have just about tuned out the rest of the season. I have heard my co-workers actually saying that they consider the tropical season to be over at the end of September and do not pay any attention. The other concern is the government is now focused on the subway system in New York City. How much chance of turning into a disaster does this little swirl in GOM have? Will this storm have a chance to build before the cold front behind it sweeps it toward the peninsula of Florida. Will the cold front stall and feed the swirl rather than rush it along? Will the system east of Florida serve to stall the swirl in the Gulf or will the reverse happen? Stay tuned for the newest soap opera on the site. Tammy meets Vince.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: 6AM EDT Update [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #58003 - Fri Oct 07 2005 08:08 AM

Quote:

Ok, now, I just woke up to a nice looking swirl coming off the northern Coast of the panhandle. Some one is on this I hope in that we have a lot of people in the area who have just about tuned out the rest of the season. I have heard my co-workers actually saying that they consider the tropical season to be over at the end of September and do not pay any attention. The other concern is the government is now focused on the subway system in New York City. How much chance of turning into a disaster does this little swirl in GOM have? Will this storm have a chance to build before the cold front behind it sweeps it toward the peninsula of Florida. Will the cold front stall and feed the swirl rather than rush it along? Will the system east of Florida serve to stall the swirl in the Gulf or will the reverse happen? Stay tuned for the newest soap opera on the site. Tammy meets Vince.




The "swrl" that appears to be south of Pensacola this morning - and not moving very much at all, to my eyes - won't have a snowball's chance to develop because of the approaching cold front. At least that's what the experts say, and at some point they're bound to be right about this system. Looking at the early morning satellite loop, the convection tried to make a comeback but the attempt appears to be fizzling even as I type this. I'd put the chance of development at somewhere less than the 1%.

As for Tammy meeting Vince... that's not going to happen. If the system were to develop into a tropical storm, it would have to retain the name Tammy, because from the time Tammy was considered to be disappated from the HPC at 5pm yesterday until now, the system hasn't disappated and reformed, it's held its own. For the NHC to rename this would be sillier than if they renamed Stan to something else in the EPAC.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
add a new invest [Re: Hugh]
      #58004 - Fri Oct 07 2005 09:59 AM

it isn't on the navy site, but ssd rated that 'non-tropical low' near 23/58 as a t-1.0 earlier. been noticing that it has a small anticyclone aloft within the larger cyclonic flow. leads me to believe that it isn't a true cold core system, and based on the incrementally greater amounts of deep convection it has been building over the last 2-3 days, i'd say it's got a decent shot. that would be 95L i guess... whenever NRL takes notice of it. it's in a precarious environment and would become a sheared system were it to develop. general movement for the next few days should be wnw as ridging should persist to the north out past 70w.
94L out to its southeast is running into the blitz of upper southwesterlies that are part of the deep trough near 60w. it has looked very near development for days now, but hasn't ever focused a low level center or any sort. best bet is from here that it turns into a big sheared cluster of thunderstorms against the trough. probably going to finally gain some latitude as well.
93L isn't anything to write home about, but is still a distinct area of low pressure around the florida keys. it should move over southeast florida today and be moving nne along/off the east coast by this evening. it hasn't shown much proclivity to do anything and is now getting caught in the southerly flow east of the deep layer low off the panhandle (the one that slurped up tammy yesterday). still has a long way to go to become a tropical cyclone, and that's just not so likely anymore. that panhandle low has the front encroaching on it and should become involved shortly.
former stan is still well defined off the mexican west coast. if that were in the caribbean it would be a depression.. there is obvious low level circulation and deep convection. due to shear it's getting ignored, but it meets most of the criteria for a tropical system.
in the coming days a lot of modeling persists low pressure near and east of florida, and around the nw caribbean. there isn't a clear signal for a particular feature, but with the pattern like it is, no reason to expect the basin to stop acting up.
HF 1400z07october

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Oct 07 2005 10:00 AM)


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: add a new invest [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58006 - Fri Oct 07 2005 10:11 AM

There's a new thread , see you all there.

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