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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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TS2
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, Florida
My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground.
      #74995 - Sat May 26 2007 08:06 PM

8pm EDT Update- Convection continues to increase in areas of the disturbance. The System still looking good on Radar. The system will continue drifting NE over the next 24 hours. Shear is still strong in that area athough it's still forecasted to drop by Monday and that will help with slow development.

6:15pm EDT Uptate- Little bits of Convction has flared up over the past hour and if this system orginizes we could well see a Tropical Depression by Tomorrow. The Steering Currents are still weak so movent will be slow and to a NNE direction. The system is moving into an area of 30-50kts of wind shear which will cause problems int he development. Shear is still forecast to drop by Monday.

5:03pm EDT Update- SSD has a floater on the area of disturbed weather in the caribbean and has labled it 'Invest'. Normally after this happens the NRL has it up.

3pm EDT Update- Here we go watching the SW Caribbean again. A LLC circulation has formed over the SW Caribbean which has been gaining convection albeit in small amounts ever since this morning. Wind Shear in that area is around 5-30 knots with stronger shear to the North East. Steering Currents are extreamly weak over that area which will keep the LLC from moving and Wind Shear IS forecasted to drop significantly. We will no doubt see some VERY slow development into a Tropical Depression in the next coming days with the possible formation of Tropical Storm Barry.

Invest Area Rainbow Enhancement
Figure 1: Rainbow Image of 'Invest'
image Credit: NOAA

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameters
Figure 2: Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation
Image Credit: NOAA.
My predictions of Tropical Cyclone Formation from this system in the next couple of days are:

Tropical Depression-85%
Tropical Storm- 65%
Hurricane-45%

Edited by danielw (Sat May 26 2007 11:39 PM)


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground. [Re: TS2]
      #75014 - Sun May 27 2007 09:41 PM

area is all but gone now.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground. [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75018 - Mon May 28 2007 09:02 AM

Lets not get to serious on if it's gone.. it has maintained little convection and models still go ahead and form Barry out of it. Can't be confident that's gone.. alot fo what i'm seeing in the wunderground blogs. There saying it's gone and we won't get another storm for a while and I just wished I can knock some sense into them lol. Anyways, This system STILL has the potential to develop over the next few days so try to be patient and watch and wait. Maybe a surprise like say "Alberto" may happen.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground. [Re: allan]
      #75034 - Tue May 29 2007 07:09 AM

The models are still "iffy" so to speak but some are persistent in some sort of development, the CMC won't give it up. It has caught the attention of local Mets and has been in the past few discussions from the WFO in Tallahassee. Here is a part of this mornings AFD...

MOST OF THE MID RANGE MODELS INSIST ON
BRINING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEWD OUT OF THE TROPICS. MOST
DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA BY WED OR WED NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS BRINGS A LOW CENTER INTO THE SERN GULF BY FRI MORNING AND
THEN TRACKS IT SLOWLY NEWD TO THE W CENTRAL COAST OF FL BY 12Z SUN.
ANY LOW THAT DOES COME UP WILL LIKELY BE A HYBRID. IN FACT
EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS EVEN
MORE LIKELY. THE GFS LOW IS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR S TO MAKE IT A
PERIPHERAL CONCERN FOR US AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN TRYING
TO SPIN UP LOWS IN THE TROPICS FOR SOME TIME NOW, AND IT HAS YET TO
HAPPEN. THE CAVEAT IS THAT THE UKMET, EURO AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN
DOING THIS RECENTLY AS WELL.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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