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Tropical Depression 5 forms in Bay of Campeche, forecast to move into Mexico Between Tuxpan and La Pesca as a Tropical Storm.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 60 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3234 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
21.0N 93.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Nw at 10 mph
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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 243
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Tropical Storm Erick Bucks the Shear
      #75981 - Tue Jul 31 2007 08:50 AM

PLEASE NOTE: Invest 99E was upgraded to TD-8E this morning Hawaii time, July 31st and then to Tropical Storm 'Erick', 6 hours later. See the following replies for the progress of Erick as it heads west towards the Central Pacific Basin.

============================================================

Invest 99E, about halfway between Mexico and Hawaii, continues to plug along, with its well defined 1008 mb low embedded in the associated westward-moving wave.

The moderate easterly shear of the past few days from an upper-level anticyclone to its' north, which has consistently displaced the convection to the west of the LLC, is now forecast to lessen with time, and the NHC/TPC is giving this disturbance a pretty fair shot at additional development over the next few days.

And this mornings' diurnal convective maximum (local basin time) is producing an impressive flare-up of very strong and deep thunderstorms, although still confined to the western semi-circle.

However, there are hints of Towering Cu and a few small Cb cells forming in tight curved bands close to the LLC, which may be an indicator that the shear is beginning to relax just a tad.

And! There is *plenty* of low-level moisture surging into the area from the south and southwest, which shows up really well on the time-lapse IR satellite loops. We'll see if this trend continues into the coming daylight hours as the shear slowly weakens. Here's the usual 6 hour IR loop from UH's weather server:

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

(Hint: I like to click 'rock' for a 'back-and-forth' effect and slow it down a little, to better visualize convective trends. And, of course, there are links for the Atlantic basin, as well, so feel free to view this servers' unique images of storms in the Atlantic basin in the coming months!)

Invest 99E is currently in the area where Cosme formed a few weeks ago, and I've a feeling that we may well see a repeat, shear permitting, of another development into a storm in the coming days.

Systems that form about 1/2 way between Mexico and Hawaii are generally more closely watched in the Islands, as they have a greater chance of paying a visit to the Islands than those forming further east.

We'll see what becomes of 99E in the coming days, just as the Atlantic is starting to 'heat up' as well. More later ...


Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Aug 01 2007 09:22 AM)


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 243
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
TD-8E Develops, Heads West, Future Uncertain [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #75990 - Tue Jul 31 2007 07:53 PM

Although being sheared and having its convection confined to the western semi-circle, the NHC nonetheless, based on satellite intensity estimates of 35 Kts., decided to upgrade the wave / low to Tropical Depression status.

While the 20 Kts. of NE shear persists, there is a certain disagreement among the models as to how this shear will evolve with time.

And the intensity forecast will depend highly on the degree of shear as TD-8E heads westward. NHC currently has it intensifying gradually, and crossing over into the Central Pacific basin as a strengthening 45 Kt. Tropical Storm in a couple days. If this verifies, then this storm will be closely watched by those of us living in the Islands.

On the other hand, TD-8E is heading into a rather dry mid and upper level environment, and, if the shear persists or becomes a little stronger, then TD-8E might well be short lived, and succumb to a hostile environment.

The next day or so will either make or break the depression in its' bid to become 'Erick'.

Tonights' diurnal (daily) convective maximum cycle will be interesting to see if 8E can survive the shear and get its' LLC under the strongest convection and not lagging behind it, as has been the case so far. Keep you posted.

PS: More on Typhoon Usagi later, but I see it's already up to 115 Kts., with a large, cloud-filled eye. Have a look/see for yourself:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom.../track_vis/dmsp

More later ...


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 243
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Tropical Storm Erick Bucks the Shear [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #75994 - Wed Aug 01 2007 09:24 AM

Yep. The easterly shear from the outflow of a large upper-level anticyclone to its' north continues to impinge on tropical storm Ericks' circulation this morning. Only very gradual intensification is currently forecast by the good folks at the NHC.

And that's not all Erick has to contend with. The thermodynamic environment is none too juicy (literally!) to the cyclones' north and northeast. Rather dry mid and upper level air presides in these areas, which may further limit the speed and degree of intensification which Erick may attain, at least through the forecast period. But ahead of the storms' path, it appears that the airmass is slowly moistening, according to water vapor imagery, which may help to mitigate the dryness on its' N and NE fringes.

But I've been watching the animated IR loop for the past 6 hours or so, and it appears that the rather impressive 'ball' of very intense convection, while expanding and intensifying, is remaining more-or-less quasi-stationary.

Which can only mean, if we assume that the LLC is continuing on its' westward journey, that the LLC is becoming more involved with the deepest thunderstorms, which should bode well in Ericks' bid the gather and harness a little more steam. (They *are* "steam engines", right?)

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

Current thinking has Erick maintaining a due-west track below a well-anchored ridge stretched out to the north of its' projected path, and entering the 'Hawaiian Basin' in a few days as a strengthening 45 Kt. tropical storm. Waters will be quite warm in this area, but not too sure what the upper-level shear will be like by then.

Unless something 'unforeseen' happens well past the extended forecast period, it's rather likely that Erick will stay well south of the Hawaiian Islands, even further south than Cosme, as she passed by a few weeks ago.

But in the meantime, Erick continues to buck the shear and is putting on a pretty good show this morning, despite all it has going against it.

But should the shear relax some in a day or so, as has been hinted by certain models, Erick just may strengthen more and faster than currently forecast, and may enter into the Central Pacific a much stronger storm. We shall see ...


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