Tropical Storm Erick Bucks the Shear

Yep. The easterly shear from the outflow of a large upper-level anticyclone to its' north continues to impinge on tropical storm Ericks' circulation this morning. Only very gradual intensification is currently forecast by the good folks at the NHC.

And that's not all Erick has to contend with. The thermodynamic environment is none too juicy (literally!) to the cyclones' north and northeast. Rather dry mid and upper level air presides in these areas, which may further limit the speed and degree of intensification which Erick may attain, at least through the forecast period. But ahead of the storms' path, it appears that the airmass is slowly moistening, according to water vapor imagery, which may help to mitigate the dryness on its' N and NE fringes.

But I've been watching the animated IR loop for the past 6 hours or so, and it appears that the rather impressive 'ball' of very intense convection, while expanding and intensifying, is remaining more-or-less quasi-stationary.

Which can only mean, if we assume that the LLC is continuing on its' westward journey, that the LLC is becoming more involved with the deepest thunderstorms, which should bode well in Ericks' bid the gather and harness a little more steam. (They *are* "steam engines", right?)

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

Current thinking has Erick maintaining a due-west track below a well-anchored ridge stretched out to the north of its' projected path, and entering the 'Hawaiian Basin' in a few days as a strengthening 45 Kt. tropical storm. Waters will be quite warm in this area, but not too sure what the upper-level shear will be like by then.

Unless something 'unforeseen' happens well past the extended forecast period, it's rather likely that Erick will stay well south of the Hawaiian Islands, even further south than Cosme, as she passed by a few weeks ago.

But in the meantime, Erick continues to buck the shear and is putting on a pretty good show this morning, despite all it has going against it.

But should the shear relax some in a day or so, as has been hinted by certain models, Erick just may strengthen more and faster than currently forecast, and may enter into the Central Pacific a much stronger storm. We shall see ...

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