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Invest93L Now Moving WSW and Weakening - Not Very Impressive Tonight.
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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1074
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Things could be getting interesting near both coasts: Kiko & Increasingly favorable W. Atlantic.
      #79236 - Sat Oct 20 2007 03:25 AM

Two changes in the tropical landscape tonight:


KIKO:
Tropical Storm Kiko is on the fast track to become a hurricane, likely sooner than later, and quite possibly as early as overnight. Looks about as good as any already, and, well, frankly almost looks to be on that "West GOM Rapid Intensification Plan" (TM), at this time. Several models have been forecasting this, and tonight Kiko is in the process of firming up and clearing out an eye. This looks to be taking place sooner than many of the models suggested. As for track - the models basically split, and I'll quote NHC's most recent Kiko Discussion:

KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES
AT 4 KNOTS. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL LIKELY KEEP KIKO ON
THE SAME GENERAL SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...I
EMPHASIZE...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF KIKO AND EVENTUALLY FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
EQUALLY RELIABLE UK AND GFDL/HWRF GROUP SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE AREA OF CABO
CORRIENTES AND THE SEA OF CORTES. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...TURNING KIKO WESTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND AWAY FROM MEXICO. HOWEVER...WE MUST BE READY TO
MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IF THE NORTHWARD TREND SUGGESTED
BY THE UK/GFDL/HWRF RUNS BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS OPTION COULD
RESULT IN A STRONGER CYCLONE SINCE THE OCEAN IS VERY WARM NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SO STAY TUNED.


WESTERN ATLANTIC INC. S.EAST COAST, CARIBBEAN & GOM:
Shear is clearly starting to ease up a good bit within a few pockets, now running as low as <15 knots in a few respectably sizable locations. The ULL is helping to juice up the entire area, undoing what the cold front has done. Additionally, a trough has taken up shop in the GOM, stretching from the SW Bay of Campeche, and stretching northeasterly, ending offshore of roughly Jacksonville. The cold front appears to be slowing, possibly entering a stall. ULL itself appears to have made a few inroads into working down a bit. In a word, the entire region is becoming somewhat favorable again. This is clearly being reflected in the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product, as can be seen below, now indicating two statistically significant regions of enhanced formation probabilities close to home:



(Please read the description of the Storm Forum and note that comments on EASTPAC systems do not belong there. Thread moved to the more appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 20 2007 02:06 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Things could be getting interesting near both coasts: Kiko & Increasingly favorable W. Atlantic. [Re: cieldumort]
      #79237 - Sat Oct 20 2007 06:18 AM

I'm watching this for myself to, GFS, NOGAPS, HRMWF, and UKMEt hint at a developing storm in the Western Carribean and that's deffinatly an uh oh for this time of year.. The GFS is back and forth with the storm on the long range and on some runs, gets it into the GOM before recurving and threatning Florida. This is the one to watch and I think it's coming from that small wave before the big wave in the CATL. If this holds, I would not rule out a major Hurricane sice Wilma formed as fast as she did in the area with similiar conditions. Something is bound to develop soon anyways, with La Nina in town, Hurricane Season will not give up without one last fight!

Oh the reason why i'm also showing the HRMWF even if there's no storm in the ATL, look at Kikos model run but look to the Western Carribean, shows a low pressure in there moving north.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Sat Oct 20 2007 06:20 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1074
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Things could be getting interesting near both coasts: Kiko & Increasingly favorable W. Atlantic. [Re: allan]
      #79238 - Sat Oct 20 2007 05:32 PM

Shear has really picked back up since I posted. Sort of looks like there may be something of an extratropical vort forming in the middle, but currently not lowest layers, around 25N 86W. The trof draped up through the western Caribbean is creating a good deal of pressure drops, deep convection, and wind, but little if any turning at the surface. The wave mentioned by Ed a couple of days ago is holding on, with diffluence provided by a nearby ULL enhancing its convection, but nothing able to take at the surface. Back to looking a lot more like mid-late November, again. Now watch something pop tonight now that I've written this

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