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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral 28.37N 80.80W
Forcast for GOM wave
      #86123 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:01 PM

I will go on a limb and theorize that the wave will be a cat2 by tomorrow afternoon

Any thoughts?


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kevin_1
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: 30.01N 92.29W
Re: Forcast for GOM wave [Re: mwillis]
      #86125 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:06 PM

No way, wet week ahead for the gulf coast. The drought we started to have is over, let's concentrate on what's in the atlantic, I go to work Tuesday am offshore and it looks like it will be a real busy week,

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Forcast for GOM wave [Re: kevin_1]
      #86128 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:10 PM

GFS/NAM has this over water less than 18 hours (Ms/Al/FL area). It'll run out of time before it has a shot to get close to that. If that doesn't happen like that, then something could happen. Still Humberto shows there is precedent for it. Still, not being a TD at this point, most you are going to get is some rain and a little bit of wind, but not too bad. Not enough time otherwise.




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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: mwillis]
      #86136 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:23 PM

"I will go on a limb and theorize that the wave will be a cat2 by tomorrow afternoon"

This is the type of post that we don't encourage on CFHC. Remember that the by-line for CFHC is Hurricanes without the Hype. This system is likely to be ashore in about a day and a half - two at the most. It is VERY disorganized in structure and by the time it gains any real organization it will be close to landfall. Is a TS possible from this system - of course. Is a Cat II Hurricane likely out of this system? Of course not! We try not to scare folks here with unwarranted hype, so please, everybody calm down and take a deep breath.

Its certainly a good idea to review your storm preparation checklist (or to make one), but do it for the systems that are currently east of us, i.e., Ana and Bill.
Thanks,
ED


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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral 28.37N 80.80W
Re: Admin Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86139 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:30 PM

Quote:

"I will go on a limb and theorize that the wave will be a cat2 by tomorrow afternoon"

This is the type of post that we don't encourage on CFHC. Remember that the by-line for CFHC is Hurricanes without the Hype. This system is likely to be ashore in about a day and a half - two at the most. It is VERY disorganized in structure and by the time it gains any real organization it will be close to landfall. Is a TS possible from this system - of course. Is a Cat II Hurricane likely out of this system? Of course not! We try not to scare folks here with unwarranted hype, so please, everybody calm down and take a deep breath.

Its certainly a good idea to review your storm preparation checklist (or to make one), but do it for the systems that are currently east of us, i.e., Ana and Bill.
Thanks,
ED




Sorry, Im calm, just thought the forecast lounge was for putting ideas out their like the posts on Bill


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Admin Note [Re: mwillis]
      #86149 - Sat Aug 15 2009 10:54 PM

While it is true that the Forecast Lounge is not as strictly moderated, it is also true that an extreme forecast without any rationale amounts to hype - which is not permitted. If we allowed it, we would be no better than some of the other sites on the net where almost anything goes - and we at least strive (not always successfully) to be a little bit more informative and a little less unstructured. It actually usually works out for the benefit of most folks when things really get threatening. Trust goes a long way when you want to know whats really going on. If a storm is going to be really bad, some of the knowledgeable folks on the site will be the first to let you know.

It is worth noting that the initial tropical model suite from NHC places the storm inland in the Louisiana/Mississippi area in 48 hours and the SHIPS model suggests a maximum wind speed of 40 knots at landfall - but only if it organizes better than it currently is.
Cheers,
ED


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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral 28.37N 80.80W
Re: Admin Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86152 - Sat Aug 15 2009 11:03 PM

Quote:

While it is true that the Forecast Lounge is not as strictly moderated, it is also true that an extreme forecast without any rationale amounts to hype - which is not permitted. If we allowed it, we would be no better than some of the other sites on the net where almost anything goes - and we at least strive (not always successfully) to be a little bit more informative and a little less unstructured. It actually usually works out for the benefit of most folks when things really get threatening. Trust goes a long way when you want to know whats really going on. If a storm is going to be really bad, some of the knowledgeable folks on the site will be the first to let you know.

It is worth noting that the initial tropical model suite from NHC places the storm inland in the Louisiana/Mississippi area in 48 hours and the SHIPS model suggests a maximum wind speed of 40 knots at landfall - but only if it organizes better than it currently is.
Cheers,
ED




Thanks if you can just delete the topic all together then, thanks


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Admin Note [Re: mwillis]
      #86168 - Sun Aug 16 2009 02:03 AM

Quote:

Quote:

While it is true that the Forecast Lounge is not as strictly moderated, it is also true that an extreme forecast without any rationale amounts to hype - which is not permitted. If we allowed it, we would be no better than some of the other sites on the net where almost anything goes - and we at least strive (not always successfully) to be a little bit more informative and a little less unstructured. It actually usually works out for the benefit of most folks when things really get threatening. Trust goes a long way when you want to know whats really going on. If a storm is going to be really bad, some of the knowledgeable folks on the site will be the first to let you know.

It is worth noting that the initial tropical model suite from NHC places the storm inland in the Louisiana/Mississippi area in 48 hours and the SHIPS model suggests a maximum wind speed of 40 knots at landfall - but only if it organizes better than it currently is.
Cheers,
ED




Thanks if you can just delete the topic all together then, thanks




I won't, we could be wrong. Humberto happened. We just explained why it isn't all that likely.


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Johncn
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Re: Admin Note [Re: MikeC]
      #86170 - Sun Aug 16 2009 02:19 AM

Hi,

I just noticed that the latest TWO now says:
Quote:


1. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA...IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOMETIME TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.




Regards,

Johncn


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