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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: MikeC]
      #89683 - Fri Sep 24 2010 05:16 PM

Looks like the center of Matthew has jogged to the north a little

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: hurricane expert]
      #89689 - Fri Sep 24 2010 07:36 PM

Looks to me as if Matthew will die a slow death over land. It won't be good news for the people affected, though.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: k___g]
      #89690 - Fri Sep 24 2010 11:54 PM

Truly. About as slow a "death" as that of Tropical Storm Hermine (2010) or Tropical Storm Erin (2007).

Just imagine what Matthew would be doing right now had this landmass not be in the way.

The most recent enhanced IR images show Matthew with still very cold cloud tops as he continues to be a reasonably symmetric, extremely well-ventilated and very moisture-laden tropical cyclone.

20100925.0315.goes13.x.ir1km.15LMATTHEW.50kts-998mb

Image credit: NRL


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: TS Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #89691 - Sat Sep 25 2010 02:44 PM

I've been pouring over the 12Z package today and two words, "low confidence" coming out of HPC in regards to how the models are handling this system.. All the ensembles are in different camps. For the moment all models are handling Matthew, not the future evolution of Nicole. There continues to be both speed and position issues that will continue to exist for the foreseeable future. For now no one should concern themselves on where Matthew/Nicole will be heading; whether FL or the northern GOM coast. Additionally, it remains unclear what type of system we'll be talking about...tropical..subtropical...extra-tropical as it begins to interact with the deep trough over the east.. Whatever evolves of Matthew and/or Nicole it is likely we won't have definitive answers until mid week, next week.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: cieldumort]
      #89692 - Sat Sep 25 2010 02:49 PM

Quote:

Truly. About as slow a "death" as that of Tropical Storm Hermine (2010) or Tropical Storm Erin (2007).

Just imagine what Matthew would be doing right now had this landmass not be in the way.

The most recent enhanced IR images show Matthew with still very cold cloud tops as he continues to be a reasonably symmetric, extremely well-ventilated and very moisture-laden tropical cyclone.

20100925.0315.goes13.x.ir1km.15LMATTHEW.50kts-998mb

Image credit: NRL




Karl traversed the same neck of the woods and held itself together quite well over land. We can't dismiss the pattern in the region with overall low pressure due to the monsoon and what mets refer to as the MJO, the Madden Julian Oscillation. You can learn more about the MJO if you have a bottle of aspirin nearby at Wikipedia. As I posted a moment ago, it is not clear in the long ranges if "Nicole" will emerge from this mess or Matthew which for now the models are handling.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: berrywr]
      #89693 - Sat Sep 25 2010 04:53 PM

Looks like Mathew has started his northerly component.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #89694 - Sat Sep 25 2010 10:07 PM

It is kind of weird right now. Just about all the models have something, be it tropical or hybrid, developing in the Caribbean over the next few days. It seems like most seem to make it from a new circulation. Where there is no agreement from model to model or run to run is what develops and where it goes. So while Matthew is likely going to pass away, it would seem like the action in the region is far from done but might fall into an information gap for the next few days.

--------------------
Jim


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: Rasvar]
      #89695 - Sun Sep 26 2010 12:53 AM

Alot of confusion still going on with the models coming out @ OZ Sunday morning here still. I still feel we cant take any model for granted until we get some kinda of broad low pressure system Monday night or Tuesday north of Honduras. I think we have to wait then @ least 24 if not 48hrs before we really can get a grasp. I would go along right now with the ECMWF only cause the GFS has been really confused on what to make of this all.

From what we can tell, we will have a good trough digging down Mon-Friday into the SE U.S. Low pressure
in the NW carribean will be very broad and will have impulses inside the broad low that will then tele-connect with a frontal trough from the main trough over the S.E. United States as it digs down south of 30N to 20N and near 82-85W. The impulses will respond and move along the trough. Dry air will be on the back side of this trough over the central and northern GOM. How far east this trough makes it by Friday will determine who will see what. if your west of the trough, you will get a few light showers and high clouds, east of the trough and along the low pressure, you will get heavy amounts of rain, gusty winds and heavy rainfall amounts for 4+ inches.

Finally, again we don't know yet where this trough will set up and how fast the low pressure moves up along the trough and how deep the impulse will be, it may be just a impulse of lower pressure around 998mbs as subtropical storm moving NE getting sheared or it might be a little stronger around 990mbs with a good strong band out ahead and to its east (cause it wont be concentrated too much near the COC due to dry air to its west and shear). Still its 5 days out @ least, we will find out probably in 36hrs-48hrs what might happen in strength and placement. Disregard anything south of Cuba in the long range 5-7days as models are really having issues past day 4 right now.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: scottsvb]
      #89697 - Sun Sep 26 2010 02:55 PM

Have to say looking over the models this afternoon with this mess in the western Caribbean, some consistency starting to develop especially with the global models. And seeing some convection albeit very disorganized its more believable that we should have a broad low pressure 24-48 hours gradually getting better organized as it moves north. How much strength it can gain is hard to tell given the trough digging into the southeast with increasing shear. I think its becoming a little more clear given the agreement with models that Cuba and Floirda needs to watch it closely. How far the trough/front digs into the state, how much shear will effect it will determine its future path and strength. Models range from big bend to the southeast floirda coast. Until we have a center and point to track its hard to do anything but speculate.

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89698 - Sun Sep 26 2010 03:04 PM

Looking closely at the zoomed in visible loops in Caribbean some rotation noted near 18N and 84W moving north-northwest...

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89701 - Sun Sep 26 2010 03:12 PM

Buoy 42056 has been showing consistent pressure falls all day and the latest is down to 1006.2mb. It is located:
19.874 N 85.059 W (19°52'27" N 85°3'33" W)
winfds are brisk out of the SE @ 15knt

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNut]
      #89704 - Sun Sep 26 2010 05:22 PM

Buoy 42056 continues falling down to 1005mb Southeast winds between 15-20 knots. This is just northwest of the area where some slight rotation was noted in visible satellite imagery...

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89705 - Sun Sep 26 2010 05:43 PM

Interesting to read the model discussion from HPC, read the last paragraph...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: MikeC]
      #89706 - Sun Sep 26 2010 06:46 PM

I am seeing quite a bit of rotation in the convection in the Northwest Caribbean late this afternoon. I think we may have another tropical depression form sometime tomorrow. I think the NHC will increase its chance for development to 20% or 30% in the next update.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: WesnWylie]
      #89707 - Mon Sep 27 2010 01:19 AM

Good evening....Is disturbance likely to be Subtropical or Tropical?

The disturbance in the Western Caribbean in the wake of Matthewis integrated into a larger area of low pressure which dominates a good chunk of the Western Caribbean and Central America and is not a separate entity as of this typing. There is a 300 millibar and higher anti-cyclone (upper ridge) over the remnant low or remains of Matthew near the coast of SE Mexico and the Bay of Campeche with outflow over the disturbance in the Western Caribbean. Winds aloft over the Western Caribbean are light however increasingly hostile as you move towards the SE USA..

The evolving pattern over the Eastern United States is quite complicated beginning with the upper cutoff low centered over the border of Southern Illinois and SE Missouri. It is forecast to be near the border of N AL and S TN in 24 hours and begin to fill and lift NE slowly in the days ahead; however a strong shortwave will dropping into the base of the trough and deepening the trough over the Eastern United States later in the week with this trough extending south and south-southwest to the Yucatan Peninsula. This trough will induce moderate shear all up and down the east coast and FL..

The system will gradually work itself north over the next several days. There is also the possibility we'll be dealing with two distinct systems. I can't rule out the system being tropical to start but becoming extra-tropical and moving up the coast as a non-tropical low or being absorbed by the larger non-tropical low that will form in advance of the upper low now over the Mid-South.

HPC & TPC have expressed low confidence and I share their concern. Mixing tropical and dynamic (baroclinic....temperature gradience over distance in an airmass) is complicated stuff given the depth of the longwave trough over the Eastern US for the next several days and beyond.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: berrywr]
      #89708 - Mon Sep 27 2010 07:38 AM

Mornin' all..... Looks like this morning's satellite would seem to indicate that perhaps a LLC may be developing, "on cue" perhaps near 18.0 & 82.0. Looking at the overnight Euro and GFS 6Z run, I would think that perhaps a sub-tropical depression might get pulled ahead of the short wave forecasted to drape the N. Florida area by mid to late week. With any luck ( for Florida ) a good amount of the the deep moisture feeding up from the Caribbean this week hopefully will train east of the state. Current upper air is certainly looking like shear is starting to impinge well into the Central Gulf and perhaps ( to a lessor extent ) almost all the way to Yucatan.

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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 52
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: weathernet]
      #89709 - Mon Sep 27 2010 10:33 AM

Is there a recon mission going out today?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: weathernet]
      #89710 - Mon Sep 27 2010 10:43 AM

If a LLC is forming.. its with the midlevel convection just SE of Cancun near 86W right now.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3890
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: scottsvb]
      #89713 - Mon Sep 27 2010 02:30 PM

The area in the western Caribbean has been designated 96L, and model runs should come shortly.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: MikeC]
      #89714 - Mon Sep 27 2010 02:34 PM

NOUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06 AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

Western Cuba Radar Loop- 1 image/ hour

Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 27 2010 03:08 PM)


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