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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave
      #89913 - Tue Oct 19 2010 07:14 AM

6:30 AM EDT Wednesday, October 20 2010 Update

The wave in the western Caribbean (tracked as 99L by the Navy) is northeast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to form into a relative small tropical depression or storm today. If it does it will likely stay in the Caribbean and possibly eventually drift back northwest and into the Yucatan or Belize. A blocking high pressure will likely keep it out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Those in the Western Caribbean, Yucatan, West Cuba, Belize, Caymans, and Nicaragua/Honduras will want to keep a close eye on the system.

Chances are about 70% today and tomorrow for development, development is most likely between 11AM-5PM today.

99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_19.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


5PM Eastern Time Update
Recon has found a reasonably well-formed, but broad, closed low level circulation within Invest 99L, and the NHC now expects a 70% chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours, which could be conservative.

Original Post
The wave in the west Caribbean, being tracked by the Navy as 99L, is continuing to sit offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras. This system isn't expected to move much and has about a 30% chance for development over the next few days.

Those in Belize and the Yucatan have to watch it closely since the most likely outcome is that it drifts northwest then westward into land there. If it develops and continues to slowly move it is possible for it do become a tropical storm.

The pattern north of it will likely keep it out of the Gulf, so the only other areas that may want to watch 99L right now is the Caymans, and perhaps Western Cuba. Belize, and the Yucatan remains the most likely locations to be impacted by 99L.



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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: MikeC]
      #89916 - Tue Oct 19 2010 02:27 PM

The NHC now has it at 50% chance of developing with in 48 hrs.It is now moving north.This is something we need to start paying attention to.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: MikeC]
      #89917 - Tue Oct 19 2010 03:50 PM

Recon has closed off a center. Maximum sustained winds are currently around 35MPH.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:37Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:09:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 83°29'W (17.3833N 83.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 191 miles (308 km) to the SW (226°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 20kts (From the ESE at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 302m (991ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph) in the north quadrant at 18:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21kts (~ 24.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:15:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
BEST WINDSHIFT CENTER WAS AT 19:05:50Z AT 17 31N 83 35W


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #89918 - Tue Oct 19 2010 03:51 PM

At this point, I can't imagine this will be a Tropical Depression at 5PM, the low is extremely broad and not very organized. In addition, there isn't a very well defined concentration of persistent thunderstorm activity. And while I'm sure there are cases where storms looked worse and were still designated a Tropical Depression, both factors above will probably keep it from designation.

If it has more thunderstorm activity, or the pressure gradient tightens up, it'll get designated IMO. It needs one or the other to happen first though.

Even though the HH sent a Vortex message, that doesn't automatically mean it'll get upgraded. Ultimately the NHC makes the call. and I don't see them pulling the trigger at 5PM.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Edski
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: Palm Harbor, Florida, USA 28.08N 82.74W
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: Bloodstar]
      #89920 - Tue Oct 19 2010 06:15 PM

It almost looks sub tropical. That seems weird, since it is so far south.

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: Edski]
      #89922 - Wed Oct 20 2010 01:54 AM

Well, per the 2:00am TWO, some consolidation is starting to take shape just to the NE of the stationary center. Not really how I see it however. Whether re-forming or moving N.E. at 5-10mph, a tighter center seems to have slid a little to the north and east a little bit better positioned under the upper high there. There does seem to be some light to moderate shear impinging on the western quadrant, however I do not believe this will hinder development. In fact, any net shear will be negated if in fact the storm moves in concert with the BAMD model.

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: weathernet]
      #89924 - Wed Oct 20 2010 07:57 AM

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA SW OF OF GRAND
CAYMAN. AT 20/0900 UTC A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 18N83W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE LOW FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W
INCLUDING THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THUS THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Read "partially exposed 1008mb Low"

Excerpt from Trop. Weather Outlook:
...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 20 2010 08:01 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: danielw]
      #89926 - Wed Oct 20 2010 08:35 AM

RECON is airborne at this time. 0834 EDT. Their data should give the models a better handle on what 99L is doing.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: danielw]
      #89927 - Wed Oct 20 2010 09:11 AM

It does look like the LLC is exposed near 17.6N; 82.4W on the latest vis sat pic. If the shear does not relax, it ain't gonna happen. Impressive convection N and E of that apparent center, though.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave [Re: MichaelA]
      #89929 - Wed Oct 20 2010 12:38 PM

System now appears to be moving south ( perhaps SSE at the moment ). Well, guess we don't have to worry about the "where" question. Having all the convection practically sheared off, motion should basically coincide with the lower layer flow. Maybe GFS was not so crazy, and with upper level conditions worsening, the system would have to move contrary to the deep layer BAMD. Question will now be whether or not new convection can fire over the LLC prior to the system moving inland in a couple of days.

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