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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94135 - Sat Oct 27 2012 02:27 PM

Hello.

First off, from the sources I'm tracking, no one is prepping
for this. Yes, some are of course, but I don't see anything like
20 million.

Not one tv shot of plywood going up.

" Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion
PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:24 pm
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This is shaping up to be a monster. I have friends up at NYU, I have been warning them about this since Tuesday, and last night they said people still aren't preparing. I've been telling them to get their kits ready and prep for evacuation if necessary. These are going to be a historic couple of days.


Second, I've been looking at a Stall since Tuesday.

Now in the Clark and Skeetobite Ensembles, too many models
have Sandy looping and lasting at least 120 hours.

I'm looking at one 168 hr total near Scranton.

Philly and Baltimore to Pittsburgh.

Record warmth in the Gulf Stream. Major Evaporation.

20 in rain and 2 ft snow.

This will be the first 'Climate Change Anthropocene We're Here Storm'.


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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #94136 - Sat Oct 27 2012 05:40 PM

This was in my local NWS forecast office (LWX / Sterling VA) forecast discussion:

ONE...HIGH WINDS WILL BE A BIG ISSUE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING
FROM 30 TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SEE GRIDDED
FORECAST FOR DETAILS. OF COURSE...JUST WHERE WINDS WILL CRASH
DOWN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SANDY/S TRACK AND HOW THE TRANSITION TO
AN extratropical STORM OCCURS. ALSO...WITH FORECAST 850 HPA 80-110
KT WINDS ADVERTIZED IN THE MODELS...HOW MUCH/WHEN THESE WINDS MIX
DOWN IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THESE WINDS ARE JUST AMAZING IN
TERMS OF THEIR HIGH SPEED. I CANNOT RECALL EVER SEEING MODEL
FORECASTS OF SUCH AN EXPANSIVE AREAL WIND FIELD WITH VALUES SO
HIGH FOR SO LONG A TIME. WE ARE BREAKING NEW GROUND HERE.


Ref: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?...p;highlight=off

(Emphasis added)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94142 - Sat Oct 27 2012 11:40 PM

Current northern Chesapeake Bay forecast synopsis:

- Peak surge will be early Monday (+1 foot) and late Tuesday (+2 foot)
- Western bay will have a negative surge late Monday into early Tuesday (-0.5 foot)
- Eastern bay will have a positive surge during that same period (+0.5 foot)
- Wind direction will shift from NNE early Monday to N Monday to NW late Monday to W Tuesday.
- Wave height will build to 3-4' on Sunday, 4-5' on Monday, 6-7' on Monday night. Waves will start to decrease Tuesday.

Key point: Highest waves will occur as the wind shifts to the NW and the negative surge begins. By the time the positive surge resumes, winds will be out of the W. This means portions of the western Bay may escape the worst of the coastal damage, but the eastern Bay will not, as both the winds and the positive surge will coincide for them. This is the best case scenario with the storm traveling north of the Bay, through southern PA. If the storm were to shift South, conditions will be much worse.

Sources:
Bay wave height: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.1123920088853&lon=-76.33580608398438
Surge height: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/et_surge/et_surge_info.shtml
Wind direction forecast: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/cbofs/cbofs.html


Please note that this is general guidance and to plan for worst case scenarios of major coastal damage from surge plus waves.

--

I have lived on the northern Bay for the past 18 years and I have never seen a storm bring 7' waves. During Nor'easters, we commonly get 3-4' waves, rarely any more than that. This storm is unreal.



Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Oct 27 2012 11:45 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94143 - Sun Oct 28 2012 12:23 AM

If Mike and Ed will allow me some latitude here. I'm going to continue to post Forecast Discussions due to the Critical nature of the Hurricane Sandy/ FrankenStorm event.
I'm not sure how many readers that we may have in the Region. But I feel the information is there to be relayed on to the general public that might not receive it otherwise.


FXUS01 KWBC 272101
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

VALID 00Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 00Z TUE OCT 30 2012

...A DANGEROUS STORM IN HURRICANE SANDY LURKS OFF THE EAST COAST...

...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS UP
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.

...STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...


OF COURSE THE MAJOR STORY THROUGH MONDAY IS HURRICANE SANDY WHICH
HAD BEEN UPGRADED TO SUCH A STATUS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE OUTER
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
WHERE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE National Hurricane Center EXPECTS THIS SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY 1 RATING THROUGH MONDAY WHILE GENERALLY
TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTH. BY MONDAY EVENING...HURRICANE SANDY IS
FORECAST TO TAKE A HARD TURN TO THE LEFT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
SUCH A TRAJECTORY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.
AS EXPECTED WITH ANY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...HEAVY RAIN...STRONG
WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SYSTEM. BUT WHAT MAKES SANDY DIFFERENT IS THE FACT IT WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY
INVIGORATE THE CYCLONE AND FURTHER EXPAND ITS VAST WIND FIELD. IN
ADDITION...LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FULL MOON STAGE OF THE
LUNAR CYCLE WHICH FAVORS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES. CURRENTLY IT
APPEARS MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED
BY THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM. OVERALL...THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST AT www.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD BEEN MARCHING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES HAS QUICKLY COME TO A HALT. THE
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SANDY
BOUNDED BY AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION FROM UPSTATE
NEW YORK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WINDS BEGIN RESPONDING TO
HURRICANE SANDY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL
SPILL DOWN TO EXPERIENCE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. UP TO A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW IS
CURRENTLY BEING FORECASTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BY THE HPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 28 2012 12:27 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #94144 - Sun Oct 28 2012 01:20 AM

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
441 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

VALID 00Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 00Z WED OCT 31 2012(edited~danielw)

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE FCST IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH THE TRACK OF SANDY AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
MID-ATL REGION AND WRAPPING AROUND THE INTENSE CYCLONE.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW ENOUGH ANOMALOUS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WITH
STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING TAKING PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR HVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE SUN INTO TUE. THE INITIAL SNOWS LATE SUN INTO
MON MORNING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TERRAIN NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER
INTO AREAS NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER. THIS IS WHERE THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MAX COLD ADVECTION AND WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND PRODUCES SNOW IN TERRAIN
FACING THE FLOW. AS SUN NIGHT PROGRESSES THE AREA OF COLDER TEMPS
EXPENDS NORTH ACROSS WV AND RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THE PROBABILITY UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND DURATION OF SNOW. ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT... TREMENDOUS NWRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INUNDATE THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR HVY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WV/EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA AND NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER.

SIGNIFICANT APPALACHIANS SNOWFALL IS LIKELY BUT A WIDE VARIABILITY
PERSISTS ON ACCUMULATIONS AMONG THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE HIGHER
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN MAY DEVELOP TUE AS
HEIGHTS/TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL. THE 12Z NAM HAD THE COLDEST TEMPS
OFF ALL SOLUTIONS AND WAS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE 09Z SREF
MEAN/12Z GEFS MEAN/00-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS/12Z GEFS MEAN.
THIS MAJORITY CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR QPF/TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TO DERIVE SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PETERSEN


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #94145 - Sun Oct 28 2012 01:29 AM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
111 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

VALID OCT 28/0000 UTC THRU OCT 31/1200 UTC

HURRICANE SANDY
===============
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT

THE 12Z ECMWF & 00Z GFS MODELS ARE CLOSEST TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL WITH SANDY ARE EXTREME FROM THE
GET-GO, RUNNING A RARELY-SEEN SIX SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE
30TH PARALLEL AT THE INITIAL TIME STEP, STRONGLY SUGGESTING A
RECORD EVENT IS UNDERWAY. A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO WILL LEAD TO A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE ALOFT, WHERE THE 00Z GFS HAS MUCH LOWER 500
HPA HEIGHTS (ON THE ORDER OF 5220 METERS) THAN THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE (THOUGH ITS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES NEAR ITS CENTER IN
MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA REMAIN WITHIN FOUR SIGMAS OF NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER SO IT CANNOT BE DISMISSED), INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH
CAN BIAS IN THE DEEP DIRECTION. CONSULT LATEST NHC
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING SANDY.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

ROTH
$$


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HobbyistinNH
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Dodge MA and NH? [Re: danielw]
      #94146 - Sun Oct 28 2012 01:49 AM

Okay, I am not sure what to believe track wise here.
It looks like it is going to dodge MA and NH all together.
Earlier, around 2-4pm yesterday NH was within the cone.
Now were not.
Should we be prepping for wind, rain, snow and ice as the weather says? I'm just not sure what to believe here or what to expect with her.

Weather conditions have been stable here. Nice breeze, not sure if its attributed to Sandy, doubtful, but it has been fairly clear all day. I guess its a watch, wait and see here.


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berrywr
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: HobbyistinNH]
      #94147 - Sun Oct 28 2012 03:46 AM

It is imperative that many who contribute to the forums here be made aware that "Hurricane" Sandy is a hybrid cyclone. All the "traditional" rules do not apply to this cyclone. Currently Sandy's center is 385 ENE of Charleston, SC, 275 SSE of Wilmington, NC and yet strong tropical storm/gale warnings are being experienced along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Sandy is a hurricane but her intensity is not guided by tropical "latent" heat processes; it is being sustained by upper level difluence...which is why there is this huge upper level "exhaust"...we associate tropical cyclones with upper ridges above them...not here...We're looking a very small "tropical" cyclone with convection on the NW side near the surface center and aloft what many of us associate with cold core upper oceanic lows. I'm not going to say there won't be an inner wind maximum...that's possible...but this event will include an outer wind maximum which can be what traditionally are called "hurricane force" wind warnings...there's storm warnings...50 knots...and then there are hurricane force storm warnings...65 knots...the entire NE seaboard can expect 50 to 65 knots not just one small area near the "eye" or "center" of the cyclone. Whether the center moves over your area is mute...your area will be impacted. There is no Central Dense Overcast; no eye, no inner eye core; this is an animal all to itself different and worse, it won't be going anywhere fast...there is an upper ridge over extreme eastern Canada...this cyclone's normal track is blocked, worse, this is a Negative Atlantic Oscillation upper high...very high heights aloft given the latitude of this upper high; it alters major weather patterns. We do not know if this is a 2012 version of the 1991 Perfect Storm or other hybrid weather events we've seen in past years.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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HobbyistinNH
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: berrywr]
      #94148 - Sun Oct 28 2012 03:59 AM

Quote:

It is imperative that many who contribute to the forums here be made aware that "Hurricane" Sandy is a hybrid cyclone. All the "traditional" rules do not apply to this cyclone. Currently Sandy's center is 385 ENE of Charleston, SC, 275 SSE of Wilmington, NC and yet strong tropical storm/gale warnings are being experienced along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Sandy is a hurricane but her intensity is not guided by tropical "latent" heat processes; it is being sustained by upper level difluence...which is why there is this huge upper level "exhaust"...we associate tropical cyclones with upper ridges above them...not here...We're looking a very small "tropical" cyclone with convection on the NW side near the surface center and aloft what many of us associate with cold core upper oceanic lows. I'm not going to say there won't be an inner wind maximum...that's possible...but this event will include an outer wind maximum which can be what traditionally are called "hurricane force" wind warnings...there's storm warnings...50 knots...and then there are hurricane force storm warnings...65 knots...the entire NE seaboard can expect 50 to 65 knots not just one small area near the "eye" or "center" of the cyclone. Whether the center moves over your area is mute...your area will be impacted. There is no Central Dense Overcast; no eye, no inner eye core; this is an animal all to itself different and worse, it won't be going anywhere fast...there is an upper ridge over extreme eastern Canada...this cyclone's normal track is blocked, worse, this is a Negative Atlantic Oscillation upper high...very high heights aloft given the latitude of this upper high; it alters major weather patterns. We do not know if this is a 2012 version of the 1991 Perfect Storm or other hybrid weather events we've seen in past years.




I do not know what any of that means... LOL
Could you explain that in laymans terms for someone who doesn't know much about weather stuff?
I kind of understand, but not really...


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Random Chaos
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: berrywr]
      #94150 - Sun Oct 28 2012 09:38 AM

12Z early track models have a southward shift to the southern Deleware Bay. This includes nearly total convergence from the AVNI, GFDI, and HWFI, plus variants and composites. This is the first time I've seen these models converge for landfall. Inland track is still slightly divergent, from following the PA/MD line to a northern Chesapeake Bay crossing. Several models are showing a brief retrograde before heading north.

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cieldumort
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: HobbyistinNH]
      #94153 - Sun Oct 28 2012 11:28 AM

In plain terms, there will be no "dodging" of anywhere in the northeast from Sandy. This is massive cyclone.

In simple terms, long-duration sustained brisk winds with locally damaging gusts are likely to be experienced just about everywhere east of the Mississippi for at least 2-3 days.

The Great Lakes will likely experience sustained very strong winds with gusts over hurricane force - possibly lasting over 30 hours, nonstop, creating incredible, possibly historic waves and surge.

The Appalachians will likely experience sustained very strong winds with some localized gusts above 100MPH (particularly mountain tops and in any terrain that creates a wind tunnel). This may last for at least 30 hours, nonstop.

East of the Apps, sustained very strong winds with some widespread gusts to at least 75 MPH are likely. This may also last for at least 30 hours, nonstop.

In addition to this phenomenal wind event, Sandy will generate moderate to locally heavy rains over basically the entire northeastern part of the country, with moderate to heavy snow over about the 2,000 elevation in the Apps.

Along the coast from about New Jersey to about Main, the potential exists for record-setting storm surge.

In a nutshell, Sandy is currently expected to set all kinds of records, and is a particularly dangerous system.

I am 100% confident her name will be retired.


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HobbyistinNH
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: cieldumort]
      #94155 - Sun Oct 28 2012 01:33 PM

Quote:

In plain terms, there will be no "dodging" of anywhere in the northeast from Sandy. This is massive cyclone.

In simple terms, long-duration sustained brisk winds with locally damaging gusts are likely to be experienced just about everywhere east of the Mississippi for at least 2-3 days.

The Great Lakes will likely experience sustained very strong winds with gusts over hurricane force - possibly lasting over 30 hours, nonstop, creating incredible, possibly historic waves and surge.

The Appalachians will likely experience sustained very strong winds with some localized gusts above 100MPH (particularly mountain tops and in any terrain that creates a wind tunnel). This may last for at least 30 hours, nonstop.

East of the Apps, sustained very strong winds with some widespread gusts to at least 75 MPH are likely. This may also last for at least 30 hours, nonstop.

In addition to this phenomenal wind event, Sandy will generate moderate to locally heavy rains over basically the entire northeastern part of the country, with moderate to heavy snow over about the 2,000 elevation in the Apps.

Along the coast from about New Jersey to about Main, the potential exists for record-setting storm surge.

In a nutshell, Sandy is currently expected to set all kinds of records, and is a particularly dangerous system.

I am 100% confident her name will be retired.




Thanks for explaining that.
As she moves farther north, NH is back in the cone.
I am not going to take any chances, and tomorrow will be going out to get things for the storm.
Weather here has been a "grey sky" and "light rain" on and off...


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: HobbyistinNH]
      #94156 - Sun Oct 28 2012 01:57 PM

I would Not wait until tomorrow to stock supplies. Go now as stores further south in D.C. are already stripped bare of supplies.
As the others have stated above. No One knows what Sandy will do as far as damage goes.

Southern N.H NWS forecasts here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/index.php

Northern N.H. NWS Forecasts here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/

Click on the map for your Local Forecast and Warnings.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 28 2012 02:07 PM)


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HobbyistinNH
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: danielw]
      #94161 - Sun Oct 28 2012 06:10 PM

Quote:

I would Not wait until tomorrow to stock supplies. Go now as stores further south in D.C. are already stripped bare of supplies.
As the others have stated above. No One knows what Sandy will do as far as damage goes.

Southern N.H NWS forecasts here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/index.php

Northern N.H. NWS Forecasts here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/

Click on the map for your Local Forecast and Warnings.




All the schools are closing here...

I get this storm is very large, in size, but is it really going to be bad enough to have schools closed???

Mets are saying this:

Increasing northeasterly breezes take over tonight, but strong winds are not expected. A bit of drizzle and a passing shower is possible. Tomorrow: Northeasterly winds increase and become strong from midday into late Monday Night...Power outages are likely, especially in southeastern NH and in the higher terrain as gusts could hit 50+ mph. Rainfall...Even though the most torrential of the tropical rains are expected south and west of NH, a flood watch is in effect for late Monday PM into Tuesday. 1-3 inches of rain is expected which would not result in much flooding, but some spots(especially the higher terrain of southwestern NH and points north could get up to 4 or 5 inches of rain, which would result in some flooding. The heaviest rain looks to hit Monday pm into Tuesday AM with occasional showers on and off late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Been dreary here, kind of dark, winds are atleast 15-20mph with gusts... a nice breeze

Edited by HobbyistinNH (Sun Oct 28 2012 06:19 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: HobbyistinNH]
      #94169 - Sun Oct 28 2012 09:57 PM

A 50 mph gust can blow a school bus off the road. The schools are closed because transporting children to and from school will be dangerous.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 7/2/0


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Random Chaos
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: MichaelA]
      #94172 - Sun Oct 28 2012 11:07 PM

Last couple of IR frames look like an eyewall has formed.

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HobbyistinNH
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: MichaelA]
      #94176 - Sun Oct 28 2012 11:33 PM

Quote:

A 50 mph gust can blow a school bus off the road. The schools are closed because transporting children to and from school will be dangerous.




I wish they would tell that to the college...

all colleges closed here, except the one I attend...

Manchester community college is not closed... and we have students who come from all over....

Gonna be interesting... considering I ride public transportation...


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HobbyistinNH
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94177 - Sun Oct 28 2012 11:34 PM

Quote:

Last couple of IR frames look like an eyewall has formed.




I saw that too. I thought that was not supposed to happen? I thought it was going to die down??


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Random Chaos
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Re: Dodge MA and NH? [Re: HobbyistinNH]
      #94179 - Sun Oct 28 2012 11:46 PM

They did expect intensification just before it made the west turn, so this was somewhat expected, though I don't think anyone thought it would gain this kind of organization.

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cieldumort
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Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94183 - Mon Oct 29 2012 12:46 AM

The reformation of an eyewall has actually been more or less foreseen by models, and in fact has been foreshadowed in earlier Discussions from the NHC.

The reason for this is primarily because shear is relaxing as the cyclone begins its recurvature back towards land, and at the same time the center is traveling over a locally warmer pocket of water.

While it is possible that Sandy retains distinctly tropical features up through landfall, extratropical transition has already begun, with the western portions of the cyclone merging with the stationary front that is draped basically N-S just inland. Moreover, water vapor images depict a cyclone that more resembles a mid-latitude neutral to cold core system than a tropical hurricane. And most telling, the regions of strongest winds have lied in belts well away from the center for some time now.

Sandy is basically a Subtropical Hurricane. In reality, these hybridized hurricanes have some history of being more damaging and deadly than their purely tropical counterparts of an identical Saffir-Simpson category. Keep in mind that the Saffir-Simpson is merely a 1-5 category of the maximum sustained winds regardless of how large an area they cover, or how frequently they are occurring.


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