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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Invest 98L Forecast Lounge
      #94888 - Sun Oct 06 2013 11:08 PM

Invest 98L in the far east Atlantic has a chance for slow development over the next few days. The GFS moves the system toward the west - just to the south of a zone of westerly windshear. This is the place for your thoughts on the long range track and development (if any) of this system.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94891 - Fri Oct 11 2013 12:36 AM

Invest 98L is not as well organized as it was 24 hours ago. The system is moving toward a large area of strong southwesterly windshear and I'd expect that development chances should begin to decline.
ED


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94892 - Fri Oct 11 2013 06:21 PM

I have thought all along that the NHC's odds of development (40-50%) were probably overly generous, but I have to say that 98L looks a lot better this afternoon than it has in a while. Deep convection has really increased and the circulation seems to be getting better defined. With all the shear and dry air ahead of it, along with the general unfavorable phase of the MJO, I'm still not convinced it's going to do anything. But I suppose if it can move slowly enough to stay behind the shear zone, it could have a chance. It will be interesting to see if the odds come up at 8:00 tonight.

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