I have thought all along that the NHC's odds of development (40-50%) were probably overly generous, but I have to say that 98L looks a lot better this afternoon than it has in a while. Deep convection has really increased and the circulation seems to be getting better defined. With all the shear and dry air ahead of it, along with the general unfavorable phase of the MJO, I'm still not convinced it's going to do anything. But I suppose if it can move slowly enough to stay behind the shear zone, it could have a chance. It will be interesting to see if the odds come up at 8:00 tonight.
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